Stock Market Blog

Stock Market Blog -Feb 12th

2012-02-13T00:16:00.000-05:00

The market rallied again this week, but on Friday showed the first sign of some weakness (the VIX spiked this week too). Earnings season is now winding down, and the market could start to take a break from this huge rally. If it does, we'll see the Bonds rally once more.

New all time highs: AAPL, ALXN, BWLD, COH, DKS, PAA SBH, V
All time lows: FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!
Pops & Drops:

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
BIDU, GM, NVDA, NTAP report earnings next week.

Market Commentary

The market is ready for a pullback, and with Options expiration this week, we could see that pullback happen soon. AAPL is about to take out the $500 price level too, but is a bit bit stretched at this point. We'll probably see the S&P 500 finally take out the May 2011 highs before a meaningful pullback occurs (the DOW and the NASDAQ have already taken it out). The Russell 2000 Small Cap is the weakest of the indexes.

This week's charts:
S&P 500 -ready to take out the 2011 high

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing near $98.67
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $2.48
Gold dropped, closing near $1725
The 30 year Bond futures was mostly unchanged, closing near $142.78
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.23

NEWS:
Wall St Week Ahead: Bulls will not be tamed by weak earnings
Apple Jumps, Is It Time To Bail?
U.S. banks agree to $25 billion in homeowner help

Stock Market Blog -Feb 5th

2012-02-05T23:13:00.001-05:00

The market continued to rally, with a big jump on Friday after a positive surprise in the jobs report. The NASDAQ 100 is now well over the 2008 highs (pre-financial crisis), though the other indexes still have a lot of catching up to do. Bonds remain at an elevated level.

New all time highs: AAPL, ABV, COH, FAST, FISV, INTU, MA, NKE, RAX, SWI, V, YUM , WYN
All time lows: FAZ, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!

Pops & Drops: The Financials popped this week.
Also COCO, GMCR, GIL, ISRG, STX, SWI, MA, & V

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports Earnings reports from the following companies:

Mon: YUM
Tue: DIS, KO, BWLD, PNRA
Wed: CSCO, WFM
Thu:
Fri:

Market Commentary

In spite of the seemingly non-stop rally from Dec 19th, the market continues to power higher. Of course, I'm still looking for a pullback at some point. The longer term trend seems to indicate that the market wants to catch up to the 2008 highs (the Nasdaq 100 has already passed it by a huge amount) -that means DOW 14000! As earnings season winds down, we could see buying start to slow down.

This week's charts:
XLF -Financials recovering
XLB -Basic Materials recovering
NASDAQ -over the 2008 high
SPG -commercial real estate! (so much for the crash)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down, closing near $97.84
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.50
Gold rallied again, closing near $1740
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $142.41
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.06

NEWS:
Dow Logs Highest Close Since May 2008
Dow at 4-year high, Nasdaq hits 11-year high
U.S. GAINS 243,000 JOBS
Unusual Volume Leaders: Gilead Sciences Spikes
What Cramer's Watching Next Week

Treasury Considers Going Negative on T-Bills

Stock Market Blog -Jan 29th

2012-01-29T11:48:00.000-05:00

The market popped on Wednesday (after the Fed announced that they will keep interest rates low till at least 2014), then gave up most of those gains on Thursday and Friday. Gold also popped, and interestingly enough, Bonds rallied too. Next week we could see a turning point in the stock rally.

New all time highs:
All time lows: TZA ZSL

Pops & Drops:
AAPL popped on earnings. EMC, NFLX, and JCP also popped.
GLD popped after the Fed announcement to keep interest rates low.

RVBD dropped on earnings.

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports Next Friday we get the monthly Jobs report -a potential market mover.
Also, earnings reports from the following companies:

Mon: BIDU
Tue: AMZN PFE UPS XOM
Wed: CMG MRO QCOM
Thu: GMCR IP MA MRK
Fri:

Market Commentary

The market settled mostly unchanged for the week, and looks tired up at these lofty levels from the December 19th low. I'm still looking for a pullback.

Bonds have been up this week too, as stocks remained flat. Earnings will continue to drive the market this week, along with news out of Europe. Longer term though, I'm bullish on the market for now, and looking to buy any pullback.

This week's charts:
AAPL -largest market cap stock in the universe!
QQQ -ready to pull back yet?
SBUX -flying high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly flat, closing near $99.56
Natural Gas finally rallied, closing near $2.77
Gold rallied again, closing near $1732
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $143.44
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 79.01

NEWS:
Dow Ends Lower; S&P, Nasdaq Gain for 4th Week
GDP comes in light at 2.8%
Fed Signals That a Full Recovery Is Years Away
Apple shares jump after earnings smash estimates
Apple’s Sweatshop Problem: 16 Hour Days, ~70 Cents An Hour
Why Starbucks Will Grow For Years

Facebook: Dead On Arrival For Investors?
Will the jobs report threaten the rally?
Stocks Worth Buying Before Earnings

Stock Market Blog -Jan 22nd

2012-01-22T10:03:00.000-05:00

Stocks rallied again this week as we closed out January Option leaps for 2012. Not sure how much longer the rally will hold up though, since we've been in rally mode since Dec 19th. Bonds also fell as stocks rallied. Silver popped up on Friday.

New all time highs: CMG, INTU, MCD, NKE, PNRA, SBUX, TJX, UNP, WYN, YUM

All time lows: UNG, SDS, QID, TZA

Pops & Drops: GOOG dropped $57 on earnings! Also ISRG.
IBM and MSFT popped on earnings. SHLD also popped.

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports Fed meeting next week, along with more earnings from the following companies:

Mon: HAL
Tue: EMC, JNJ, MCD, AAPL, YHOO
Wed: COP
Thu: CAT, MMM, SBUX
Fri: CVX, F, PG

Market Commentary

The rally continued into options expiration week, despite disappointing earnings from a few companies. The indexes are overextended at this level though, so expect a pullback; maybe the Fed will be the catalyst, maybe Europe. I would hesitate to put on any 'new' long positions here, and would wait for a pullback instead. AAPL reports earnings on Tuesday and could have a positive impact on the NASDAQ if the stock rallies.

This week's charts:
SPY -overextended (RSI over 80)
QQQ -at the top of the 2011 range (5th time!)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.33
Natural Gas plummeted, again, closing near $2.34
Gold rallied, closing near $1664
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.88
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 80.41

NEWS:
Stocks Post Third Weekly Gain of the Year
F5, Monster, Madden Act Well; Google, Intuitive Fall
Stocks to watch Monday: RIM, Apache, TransDigm
Hot iPhone Sales To Fuel Apple's Q1 Report
Fed Meeting Key in Coming Week
Key Earnings Reports Next Week
A Deeper Dive Into The Whopping Surge Behind Sears’ Stock

Iran oil to be sanctioned by Europe Monday

Stock Market Blog -Jan 15th

2012-01-15T17:25:00.002-05:00

The market finally pulled back this Friday, after more bad news on the European financial situation, and a rise in weekly US unemployment claims.

New all time highs: CMG, FAST, HUM, NUAN, PETM, PNRA, ROST, SBUX, SLXP, TSCO, YUM
All time lows: UNG

Pops & Drops:
Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports Markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. Don't forget Friday is Options Expiration (leaps too).

Earnings season begins, with the following companies reporting (financials & tech):
Mon: (holiday)
Tue: C, WFC
Wed: GS
Thu: BAC, MS, AXP, GOOG, INTC, IBM, MSFT, ISRG
Fri: GE

Market Commentary

We did get a pullback as I expected, and the Euro did drop further and spoil the party as I expected! (looks like it wants to go to 120 eventually -see last week's chart). This week it's all about earnings (and the Euro of course), and Options expiration, so we could see a lot of action. Weakness in the banks early in the week could drag the market down a bit. Also a slew of tech companies report earnings on Thursday, right before option expiration. The overall trend is still bullish however. China stocks seem to be coming back to life too, especially solar.

This week's charts:
AZO -all time high
CMG -all time high
ROST -all time high
SBUX-all time high
YUM -all time high
PETM -all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.70
Natural Gas plummeted, closing near $2.67
Gold rallied, closing near $1630
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $145
The US Dollar was up slightly, closing near 81.79

NEWS:
U.S. stocks smacked by downgrade talk
U.S. stocks face lowered earnings bar
S&P downgrades nine euro zone countries
How Amazon ate Sears' lunch

Central Banks Have Us In a Monetary Trap
U.S. Stocks Funds Have Second-Worst Year as Clients Pull Out
Hostess, Maker Of Twinkies, Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

Stock Market Blog -Jan 8th

2012-01-07T13:30:00.001-05:00

The market did rally this week as expected, in spite of the rise in the US Dollar, so we have some divergence here. Gold and Oil also rallied. Bonds were weak. We got a good jobs report on Friday, with the unemployment rate coming in at 8.5%.

I'm still looking for more upside in stocks, but we have had a nice rally since Dec 19th so I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback before we rally again.

New all time highs: AAPL, ALXN, AMT, FAST, HUM, ROST, TJX, SBUX, YUM
All time lows: FAZ, UNG

Pops & Drops: BKS, EK dropped.

Next week: Economic reports
AA kicks off earnings reports on Monday after the close.
JPM reports on Friday.

Market Commentary

We could get a pullback this week as we consolidate the gains from the past three weeks. I see this as a buying opportunity. Stocks like AAPL, ISRG, ROST, and SBUX are hitting new all time highs. Earnings season starts in another week and we could see good numbers push the market up further. The chart technicals support this view.

Of course the Euro could drop further and spoil the party, though the market held up this week as the Euro dropped, so that correlation may be fading.

This week's charts:
Hot stocks
Jobs -scary

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just under $101.56
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.06
Gold rallied, closing near $1616
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $143.03
The US Dollar was up, closing near 81.60

NEWS:
U.S. Stocks Rise as S&P 500 Index Posts Its Second-Best Start Since 2006
U.S. Economy Gains Steam as 200,000 Jobs Are Added
Earnings in spotlight but Europe may steal show

6 stocks set to advance in 2012
Bonds Outperform Equities In 2011
McDonald's Will Outshine Apple In 2012
Oil Posts An All-Time Annual High
The 13 Worst Big Stock Stories Of 2011

Stock Market Blog -Jan 1st

2011-12-31T14:08:00.001-05:00

Happy New Year to all.

The market was more or less flat for this holiday week. The first week of January usually brings in new money so we could see the recent rally continue.

The top stock in the S&P500 for 2011 was COG (few people are familiar with the name).
Top sectors were XLU and XLP, and Bonds.
Probably the worst sector was Solar, followed by Financials and Basic Materials.
Big winners this year: MA, V, ISRG, ROST, TJX, DLTR, BIIB, PRGO, TLT and more...
Big losers this year: AMR, BAC, C, EK, FSLR, NFLX, MWW, ODP, OMX, RIMM

10 best stocks for 2012

New all time highs: ISRG, DUK, PGN
All time lows: UNG (natural gas)

Pops & Drops: SHLD tanked this week!

Next week: Economic reports Holiday week -4 trading days. Monthly jobs report due on Friday.

Market Commentary

Still looking for an 'ABC' up leg to complete this rally which started around Dec 19th. We could get it next week as we kick off 2012, followed by earnings reports the next week. This year had many ups and downs in the market, finishing right where it started.

In the bigger picture, we could see more downside action in 2012 as the European situation worsens, and the US Dollar strengthens. Does that mean Bonds will rally even more? We'll see!

This week's charts:
2011 winners
2011 losers
10 year Treasury yields lower than 2008!

2011 market performance:

Sectors:

The big picture:

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.83
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.99
Gold dropped, closing near $1566
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $144.81
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.52

NEWS:
U.S. stocks end mixed year with a whimper
Dow's biggest losers and winners (2011)
The year’s best and worst sector funds
The Economy's Not as Bad as You Think
In 2012, something’s gotta give
TREASURIES-US 10-yr yield heads for biggest annual drop since 2008
Sears, Kmart Stores Closing: S&P Puts Retailer On Review For Downgrade

Euro Leaders Aim to Buy Time to Save Currency
Emerging markets take 2011 hit; 2012 may be better
Natural Gas Falls Below $3 for First Time in More Than 2 Years in New York
Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall

Stock Market Blog -Dec 25th MERRY CHRISTMAS!

2011-12-24T11:50:00.000-05:00

Santa didn't forget us after all! We got a nice rally this week as we saw bonds drop. With any luck, the rally will continue into the New Year, before we head into earnings season. The ECB provided about $500 billion in low interest money to the Eurozone banks, helping to drive the rally. Third quarter GDP was revised down again, to 1.8%. Basically, the market has been flat for 2011, ending just about where it started.

New all time highs: ED, KOG, MCD, PETM, PM, ROST, TJX, V, XLP
All time lows: SDS, DXD, TZA -leveraged inverse Index ETFS

Pops & Drops: ORCL, BBBY, and RHT dropped after earnings; CRM broke support

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 364,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports Holiday week -4 trading days, light volume.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

The SPY did dip back to the 120 level as I mentioned last week, then we got a nice rally. The chart of the SPY could be indicating an 'ABC' pattern which started after Thanksgiving, pulled back to 120, and now could continue up to near the 130 level, finishing off a nice rally. Bonds have dropped nicely too.

This week's charts:
GOOG -going back to $700?
AAPL -moving up
V -nice performer

GPC -nice performer
MCD -nice performer
ROST & TJX -discounters doing well!
RIMM -going to zero??

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just under $99.68
Natural Gas was unchanged, closing near $3.11
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1606
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.24

NEWS:
Santa rally may face test next week
Jobless Claims Drop, but 3rd-Quarter Growth Is Revised Down
Dollar selling likely next week on year-end adjustment
Interbank Markets Are Telling Investors To Sell The Rally ... Again
Paulson Fund Loses 46% in 2011 Through November

My Top 10 Stock Predictions For 2012 And Some Options Plays
Last U.S. Troops Leave Iraq
U.S. Poised To Retake Status As Net Oil Exporter
Banks gorge on ECB loans, market cheer short-lived
Automaker Saab files for bankruptcy

Stock Market Blog -Dec 18th

2011-12-17T22:57:00.001-05:00

The market dropped this week, with the Nasdaq 100 giving back most of the gains from the huge 1 day rally on Nov 30th.

Gold and Silver tumbled, along with other commodities, and the stock market, as the dollar rallied.

New all time highs: ABV, ED, KMP, PETM
Pops & Drops: RIMM dropped again!

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 366,000 (chart)
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
ORCL and NKE report earnings.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

No Santa Claus rally -so far anyway. The market bounced off resistance and turned down again this week. Again it's hard to tell where it's headed next, with Europe driving most of the action. Maybe now is a good time to take a holiday break -Happy Holidays to all!

(for the die hard traders, we could see more downside action as the other indices fall back to the Nov 30th pre-rally levels (e.g 120 on the SPY) -The Nasdaq 100 is basically there already).

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -Interest rates
SNE -Sony, 25 years -no change!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $94
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.12
Gold tanked! ...closing near $1600
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $145.32
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 80.20

NEWS:
Early rally fades; stock market down for the week
U.S. stocks expected to yield to Europe

3 Wicked Reasons To Buy Mortgage REITs Today
Don't Be Fooled, Gold Will Soar In 2012
Gold to Slip Below $1,500 in Next 3 Months: Poll

How Amazon has proven that iTunes is totally obsolete

Stock Market Blog -Dec 11th

2011-12-11T02:45:00.001-05:00

The markets were up slightly this week as Europe managed to push out their crisis to the future once again. Weekly unemployment claims dropped to a 9 month low, while Financials continued to rally.

New all time highs:
ABV, ENB, HANS, IBM, MCD, NKE, QCOR, SWI, ORLN, PGN, ROST, YUM
Pops & Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 381,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
BBY, FDX, RIMM report earnings, and we also have the Federal Reserve meeting.

Market Commentary

The market continued to hold on to its gains from the previous week, which is a good sign. We could see it start working its way above the next resistance level around 1275 on the S&P500 (also near the 200MA). Maybe we'll get a Santa Claus rally -hard to tell at this point. Bonds showed some signs of pulling back this week, which could also be a good sign for stocks.

Why Chipotle Is Going To $400
MercadoLibre: Positioned For E-Commerce Boom

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -earnings

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $99.41
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.32
Gold dropped, closing near $1716.80
The 30 year Bond futures fell a bit, closing near $141.16
The US Dollar was up slightly, closing near 78.63

NEWS:
Stocks Log Second Weekly Gain after EU Summit
U.S. stocks end higher, with Dow up 1.4% on week
Jobless Claims in U.S. at Lowest in Nine Months
300 Billion Reasons To Lighten Up On Risk Next Week

Inflation is still the silent killer
Treasury Should Sell Its GM Stake to GM
Secrets of the Bailout, Now Revealed

Brazil's economic growth stalls in third quarter
World Banks In Cahoots To Save Themselves
European summit: Now it's up to the ECB

Stock Market Blog -Dec 4th

2011-12-03T16:45:00.001-05:00

We got a nice rally this week, with some perceived good news from Europe, and from the banking system. The DOW was up 492 points on Wednesday after central banks announced a plan to help banks borrow dollars to stem the Euro crisis; also China lowered reserve requirements for its banks. Bank stocks saw a nice rally (XLF), and international markets rallied almost 10% for the week. This was the best rally in the markets since March 2009, when the markets subsequently rallied for two more years.

We also got a good(?) jobs report on Friday, indicating a lower unemployment rate of 8.6%.
Meanwhile, the debt clock is now over the $15,000,000,000,000 mark!

New all time highs:
AMT, COST, FAST, FTI, GPC, HUM, KOG, MCD, KMR, MA, TJX, PETM, ROST, V
Pops: ZUMZ
Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 400,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally from an oversold condition, as I suggested last week. Now lets see if it holds. I think the rally will continue into the new year, when earnings once again will determine the next move. We are back above the congestion area between 1120 and 1220 on the S&P500. Also we should hear more news out of Europe next week

This week's charts:
AMR -airline in trouble? << last week's comment! This week: Bankrupt!
MCD -star performer over 10 years!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $100.96
Natural gas was up a bit, closing near $3.58
Gold was up, closing near $1751
The 30 year Bond futures fell, as stocks rallied, closing near $141.81
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 78.73

NEWS:
S&P 500 Gains Most Since March 2009 on Bank Action in Europe, Retail Sales
Stocks Surge for the Week; Best Gain Since 2009
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops To Lowest Level In Well Over Two Years
Bond ETFs: Why It’s Time To Dump U.S. Treasury Bonds; Again!
Congressional Stock Trading Fails the Sniff Test, Should Earn a Ban

J.P. Morgan: Verizon is getting its iPhone reward this quarter
About Apple's incredible shrinking P/E ratio
Euro debt crisis solution on horizon
Europe Enters Critical 10 Days to Save Itself
European Banks: Here's a Loan to Buy Our Loans

Stock Market Blog -Nov 27th

2011-11-26T20:27:00.001-05:00

Another bad week in the markets as we saw continued selling every day. The Energy, Financials, and Materials sectors were the hardest hit. According to one headline, this was the worst Thanksgiving week for the S&P 500 since 1932! Oil and Gold dropped as well, though Bonds didn't rally as much as would be expected, considering the drop in stocks.

New all time highs: KMR ...not much in this market!

AMR, NFLX, and RIMM continue to sink lower...
Drops: FMCN

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 393,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
LULU, TIF, and other retailers report earnings next week.
The markets also eagerly await the monthly jobs report is due on Friday.

Market Commentary

Headlines in Europe still dominate, and based on the charts, we could drop back to the early October lows again! With any luck though, we'll get a relief rally. Not much to support any view on market 'direction' from here, other than the fact that we are oversold. Only 'traders' should be in this market until we get some sort of longer term trend going again.

This week's charts:
AMR -airline in trouble?
Gold 10 good years!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $96.77
Natural gas was up a bit, closing near $3.54
Gold dropped again, closing near $1685
The 30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks fell, closing near $143.84
The US Dollar was up as stocks fell, closing near 79.83

NEWS:
S&P 500 Has Worst Thanksgiving Week Since ’32
Stocks: More 'fear, carnage and uncertainty'
Third-quarter growth revised down to 2.0 percent
FDIC: Bank earnings hit highest level in 4 years
Derivatives: The Worlds Biggest Margin Call And How To Play It

Super committee' fails to reach agreement
Could Bank Stress Tests Push US Back Into Recession?
Online sales surge 24% on Black Friday
Italian Bond Yields Doubled in Latest Bond Auction
German Bund Auction is Ominous Sign
S&P cut Belgium rating to AA

Stock Market Blog -Nov 20th

2011-11-18T16:25:00.001-05:00

This week saw more selling as the uncertainty in Europe continues. I personally think we are headed for a 2008 style financial crisis in Europe -time will tell. Maybe we'll hold up at this support level on the S&P 500 (though the NASDAQ100 broke support today). Gold pulled back a bit, while Oil rallied to $103 then dropped right back down!

New all time highs: PM,
New all time lows: AMR, UNG,
Drops: ANF, CF, CRM, NTAP, RMBS

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 388,000 (chart)
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season is winding down, with the following companies among those reporting: HPQ, DE

Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. We await news from the Congressional Super Committee as well.

Market Commentary

We saw more weakness in the market this week, especially in the Nasdaq 100. Maybe some of it can be attributed to Options expiration, and certainly some of it was caused by weakness in the Euro (see chart below). We could get a bounce from all the selling last week, but not sure it will mean much. Europe headlines still dominate. Based on the charts, we should be at a support level here.

This week's charts:

NASDAQ 100 hitting resistance all year!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices spiked up to $103, then closed around $97.41
Natural gas dropped again, closing near $3.31
Gold dropped, closing near $1726
The 30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks fell, closing near $142.78
The US Dollar was up as stocks fell, closing near 78.25

NEWS:
Stocks: It's all about Italy, Spain and jobs
A Month’s Worth of … Nothing?
What Nasdaq weakness is telling us
DOUBLE STANDARD: Congress Can Legally Trade On Insider Information While Wall Streeters Go To Jail
A snapshot of the global smartphone market as of Oct. 1
7 reasons the Kindle Fire is better than the iPad

Fannie and Freddie Need Another $14 Billion, but Losses May Be Slowing
The weak euro: Look out below!
European bonds signal more pain ahead

Stock Market Blog -Nov 13th

2011-11-13T04:24:00.001-05:00

Another choppy week in the markets, but holding above the 1225 support level on the S&P 500 (chart below). News in Europe continue to drive the markets, with Italy being in the headlines now. Next week we get earnings reports from most of the big retailers. Oil closed at $98.99, but hardly made the news!

New all time highs: COG, DUK, MA, AZO/ORLY, QCOR, SWI, TJX
New all time lows: UNG,
Pops: DIS
Drops: GMCR

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 390,000 (chart)
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting: DELL, HD, LOW, TGT, WMT

Market Commentary

We continue to be in a choppy market, but I also continue to think that the bias is to the up-side. However, bad news from Europe and a weak Euro could change that bias. Trade small and nimble till we get a trend going again in this market.

This week's charts:
OPEN -former hi flier
GMCR -former hi flier
AZO -doing well
SBUX -doing well
MCD -doing well
MA -doing well
QCOR -nice performer
Oil -approaching $100

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $98.99
Natural gas dropped, closing near $3.58
Gold was up a bit, closing near $1788
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $140.43
The US Dollar was mostly flat, closing near 77.13

NEWS:
Weekly market recap...
The Nasdaq 100 is set for a monster breakout
3 ways to gauge a scary market
Insider selling on the rise. Bear signal?
Alabama county files biggest municipal bankruptcy
Gold Traders Most Bullish Since 2004 on Debt Crisis

MF Global Terminates Entire Workforce of 1,066 Employees
MF Global Clients: Few Options to Reach Cash
Staring into the abyss (Europe)

Stock Market Blog -Nov 6th

2011-11-06T16:53:00.000-05:00

The market dropped, then recovered a bit toward the end of the week. Friday's monthly jobs report showed a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 9%, and an increase of 80,000 jobs, hardly enough to improve the situation! Europe and Greece continue to dominate the financial news.

New all time highs:
COG, DUK, EL, FAST, FIO, HANS, LQD, MA, MCD, ORLY, PNRA, ROST, SBUX, SWI
New all time lows:
Pops: SBUX, QCOM
Drops: CECO, DNDN, OPEN

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 397,000 (chart)
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: PCLN
TUE: CLNE
WED: CSCO, GMCR, GM
THU: DIS, NVDA
FRI:

Market Commentary

We got the pullback I mentioned last week! I'm still looking for the market to work its way higher toward the end of the year, with pullbacks along the way. Keep your eye on the Euro currency, as our stock market trades pretty much in the same direction.

This week's charts:

Sony
Toyota
Japan

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $94.40
Natural gas was mostly flat, closing near $3.91
Gold rallied again, closing near $1753
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $141.10
The US Dollar was up, closing near 77.12

NEWS:
Here’s Why the S&P 500 is Giving Investors Déjà Vu
SPX and NDX Update: Top May Be In as Retracement Rally Hits Targets
Freddie Mac Loses $4.4B in Third Quarter, Requests $6B More From Treasury
MF Global Files for Bankruptcy on Bad Euro Zone Bets
Nothing Has Changed On Wall Street
AMD cuts 10% of its workforce
Groupon IPO: Shares Soar In Public Market Debut

Europe: The worst-case scenarios
Italian bond yields at 'scary' levels

Stock Market Blog -Oct 30th

2011-10-31T00:20:00.001-04:00

The DOW rallied almost 400 points on Thursday on news from Europe, and a better than expected US GDP report. Gold and Oil also rallied, while Bonds dropped.

New all time highs: BIIB, CVX, NUAN, NKE, QCOR, RHT, LQD
New all time lows: QID, SPXU, ERY, FAZ (inverse ETFs for the major indexes, oil, financials)
Drops: AMZN, NFLX

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 402,000 (chart)
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports We get the big jobs report on Friday, and a Fed meeting on Wednesday. Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: HUM
TUE: PFE, MRO, VLO
WED: MA, WFM
THU: APA, CHK, DUK, DTV
FRI: TM

Market Commentary

We got up past the 1250 level on the S&P500 that I mentioned last week. After such big run, a pullback is expected, then I think we get a resumption of the rally into year end. Europe seems to be driving the markets though, so expect anything! Also watch for the jobs report on Friday.

This week's charts:

October rally!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $92.5
Natural gas was up, closing near $3.93
Gold rallied, closing near $1711
The 30 year Bond futures were down, closing near $136.90
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.25

NEWS:
S&P 500 Extends Best Month Since ’74, Euro Rises
National debt nears size of U.S. economy

Credit-Default Swap Risk Bomb Is Wired to Explode: Mark Buchanan

Stock Market Blog -Oct 23rd

2011-10-23T19:17:00.003-04:00

Just as I anticipated last week in my comments, good earnings (and I think Options expiration) gave the market a boost this week (bank earnings were not good though). Next week we get a barrage of more earnings reports. Gold sold off some more this week, while Bonds were flat, and Technology was weak. The European/Greece crisis continues... Consumer spending was up, a good sign. China growth was down.

AAPL dropped after missing earnings for the first time in many years! AAPL was also 'down' on Friday, while the market had a big rally -not a good sign for Apple.

McDonalds closed at an all time high again!
Other new all time highs: BBBY, DUK, MCD, NUAN, QCOR,
Drops: CROX, GMCR

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 403,000 (chart)
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: AMGN, CAT, NFLX, TXN
TUE: AMZN, DD, MMM, UPS
WED: BA, COP, F, S, V
THU: BMY, MO, PG, XOM
FRI: BIIB, CVX, MRK, NEM

Market Commentary

The current rally may be running out of steam. The catalyst for next week's move will be earnings, and news from Europe. This rally could work its way up to around the 1250 level on the S&P500 before pulling back. Interestingly, the DOW is leading the other indexes right now.

Last week's comment: "Watch for a potential top in IBM" -well, we got it!

This week's charts:
CROX bites the dust!
AAPL may have seen its last high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $87.40
Natural gas is in a trading range, closing near $3.63
Gold dropped, closing near $1636
The 30 year Bond futures were flat, closing near $138.50
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.67

NEWS:
Stocks rise sharply on solid corporate earnings
Hedge Funds Have Fourth-Worst Quarter on Record
U.S. rating likely to be downgraded again: Merrill

Lowe’s will close 20 stores, cut 1,950 jobs...
Average length of unemployment now at 60-year high
October 5th 2011. The day Apple died.

Why the Commodities Selloff May Be Nearing an End
European Union looks to recapitalize banks
EU bank failures will crash Wall Street — again
Obama announces full American military withdrawal from Iraq

Stock Market Blog -Oct 16th

2011-10-16T15:41:00.000-04:00

The rally continued this week, making it the best week in over two years, and sending the bears scrambling for cover! We could see more of the same this week, as companies are expected to report good earnings.

GOOG popped $40 after reporting earnings.
Next week is Apple's turn!
New all time highs: AAPL, AMZN, BBBY, DECK, IBM, MAKO, QCOR, SBUX
All time lows: QID (inverse, leveraged 2x Nasdaq 100)

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 404,000 (chart)
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports Options expiration on Friday!
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: C, WFC, IBM, HAL
TUE: AAPL, BAC, EMC, GS, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, KO, YHOO
WED: AXP, MO, MS, UTX
THU: FCX, MSFT, T
FRI: GE, HON, MCD, VZ

Market Commentary

Last week's comment: "We could see some follow up to this week's rally, taking the S&P500 to around 1225"-guess what? It closed almost at 1225!

Next week we could see more up-side action if earnings are good, and if there are no surprises from Europe. We also get earnings reports from all the big banks. AAPL could also rally like GOOG did last week, and Friday is options expiration, so I suspect the market will hold up (squeezing all the bears). The Nasdaq broke out above the trading range we have been stuck in since early August, a good sign for the bulls. Watch for a potential top in IBM

This week's charts:
NASDAQ two week rally

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $86.80
Natural gas rallied from a low, closing near $3.70
Gold was up, closing near $1683
The 30 year Bond futures were down gain, closing near $138.40
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.87, and pushing stocks up

NEWS:
Dow, Nasdaq finish ahead for 2011
Stocks: A Critical Showdown Begins On Monday
Stocks brace for earnings deluge
Consumer Sentiment Falls, Expectations at 30-Year Low

Kinder Morgan to Purchase El Paso for Approximately $38 Billion
For Fannie and Freddie, the Party Goes On
Muni meltdown? No. But don't ignore risks.
Raj Rajaratnam, hedge fund billionaire, gets 11-year sentence for insider trading
Occupy Wall Street movement spreads with demonstrations in dozens of cities across the globe

S&P Downgrades Spain's Debt Rating, Citing Weak Growth

Stock Market Blog -Oct 8th

2011-10-10T12:06:00.002-04:00

We got a nice rally this week as I expected, as Europe seems to be making some progress on their financial issues. Lets see what the rest of this new quarter will bring. Among the big news this week was the death of Steve Jobs, Apple's founder, and a true innovator. He will be missed for all his unique contributions to the technology world.

New highs: RAI
Drops: AMR, CLWR,
All time lows: UNG

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 401,000 (chart)
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season kicks off again, with the following companies among those reporting:
MON:
TUE: AA
WED: PEP
THU: JPM, GOOG
FRI:

Market Commentary

We could see some follow up to this week's rally, taking the S&P500 to around 1225, which would move it back above the 50 period moving average. Earnings reports starting next week will help determine the next move, along with events in Europe, making it a very news driven week.

This week's charts:
Grains might be set for a rebound after a beating in September (commodities)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $82.98
Natural gas fell again, closing near $3.48
Gold was up a bit closing near $1635
The 30 year Bond futures were down, closing near $141.28
The US Dollar was down, closing near 79.09

NEWS:
Steve Jobs, Apple founder, dies

Stocks lock in weekly gains
Lessons you need to put into action as bear emerges
Average stock bear market lasts more than a year
A Long, Strange Trip: Market Goes Absolutely Nowhere Over 3 Years
The Big Money Is Now Headed for These 3 Safe Havens
Either We Are In For A Lehman Crash Or A Big Rebound
Could Morgan Stanley Go Belly Up?
$1.3 trillion deficit for 2011, CBO says

Wall Street protests grow after unions' endorsement
The Lowest Mortgage Rate ... Ever!
Where to next for oil — $50 or $100?

Fitch downgrades Italian, Spanish debt ratings
Bank of England hits the panic button

Stock Market Blog -Oct 2nd

2011-10-02T19:27:00.001-04:00

The market was up, then back down this week. Bad economic news, along with the ongoing situation in Europe continue to keep the market in a range, without any real direction. We closed the 3rd quarter with a big loss in the overall market.

New 52 week highs: DUK, PGN
Drops: AMD, BIDU, FMCN, NFLX,

New unemployment claims were down again, coming in at 391,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The monthly jobs report is due on Friday. Also, YUM reports earnings on Tuesday

Market Commentary

No real change in the outlook. Here is last week's comment: "The market dropped, and continues to trade in a range that started in early August. We are now at the bottom of that range again, and could turn back up next week. If we break down instead, we could see continued selling down to the 1050 - 1000 level on the S&P500!"

With any luck, we'll get another short bounce this week to kick off the new quarter, before we start to get earnings reports.

This weeks charts:

Bank of New York stock back to 2009 crisis level!
RIMM still dropping
BIDU approaching 100!
FXI -Bad year for China

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were down, closing around $78 per barrel.
Natural Gas was lower, closing near $3.65
Gold was down, closing around $1627.
The 30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $143.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 79.50

News:
S&P 500 Declined 14% in 3rd Quarter
Looking for Market Bottom? There May Be Hope Yet
Many markets are deep in bear territory
It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse ...New Recession Unavoidable (video)
Goldman Sachs: Risks of a Recession are High and Rising

China’s Stocks Sink to April 2009 Low as Quarterly Losses Mount
Jim Chanos Is Still Short Chinese Banks, Property Developers
Investor Fear Over Morgan Stanley Sharpens
Kodak Hires Legal Adviser Amid Talk of Bankruptcy
Amazon Stock Up 3,500 Percent in Past Decade
Apple expected to up the ante with new iPhone

Stock Market Blog -Sep 24th

2011-09-26T06:50:00.010-04:00

The Fed spoke, and the markets tanked! We saw a huge drop on Wednesday and Thursday after the Fed meeting and their announcement of a new bond swap program, along with a weak outlook for the economy. In addition Gold and Silver plunged on Friday, catching a lot of people off guard.

New all time highs: GR, AGG, BND, IEF
All time lows: TBT, TAN

Solar stocks continue to be hit hard

NFLX continued to tumble this week!
FDX dropped after reporting earnings.

New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 423,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Market Commentary

The market dropped, and continues to trade in a range that started in early August. We are now at the bottom of that range again, and could turn back up next week. If we break down instead, we could see continued selling down to the 1050 - 1000 level on the S&P500!

This weeks charts:

Gold tanked
TLT top? (Bonds)
NFLX is done!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices tanked, closing around $78 per barrel.
Natural Gas was lower, closing near $3.68
Gold tanked, closing around $1650.
The 30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $144. Still no top...
The US Dollar was lower, closing near 76.60

Silver drop on Friday!

News:
Last Stand For The Bulls
About 44 million in U.S. lived below poverty line in 2009, census data show
U.S. poverty rate increases to 1 in 6 people
Silver, Platinum, Copper Fall Out Of Bed
Top Ten Weekly Sell-Offs in Gold and Silver
Uncertainty Plagues Euro Zone as Crisis Rages On

Stock Market Blog -Sep 18th

2011-09-18T07:53:00.002-04:00

We got a nice rally this week, which happened to also include 'quarterly' options expiration. We'll see how the rest of the quarter plays out through September 30th. For a new up-trend to be established, a lot of price resistance has to be overcome from the August drop.

Gold lost some of its luster, while Bonds continue to hold up well.

New all time highs: Amazing AMZN! ATHN, AZO, BBBY, COST, CL, DMND, DG, DLTR, DUK, HANS, JAZZ, KO, MA, NUS, ORLY, SO, TJX -are we really in a bear market? INTC is also showing good strength.

All time lows: STP (Solar stocks have been hit hard lately)

NFLX and RIMM tumbled this week!

New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 428,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Fed meeting next week -we may get some kind of market moving announcement. Also, FDX and ORCL report earnings.

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally this week, and it did crush the bears (last week's post)!
I expect a pullback now, then maybe another push higher, but with high volatility, anything could happen. Stocks are still hitting new all time highs (see above), so this 'bear market' could just be losing some strength. The Nasdaq 100 is already showing 'higher highs' over some recent tops. Watch for any surprise announcement by the Fed next week too!

This weeks charts:
Amazing Amazon
Gold pulled back
TLT may be reversing? (Bonds)
The Euro recovered a bit

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were higher, closing around $87.96 per barrel.
Natural Gas was slightly lower, closing near $3.81
Gold dropped, closing around $1815.
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $139.78. Still no top...
The US Dollar was lower, closing near 76.60

News:
Stocks finish their second-best week in a year
Stocks Advance 5.4% for the Week
3 Reasons Why The S&P 500 Index Will Move Higher
Market Recap: 15 Reasons the Dow Rallied 4.7% and Gold Dipped
U.S. Federal Reserve Steps Up to Buoy Global Financial Markets

Foreclosure filings jump 7% in August from July
Alabama County Nears $3.14 Billion Settlement, Avoids Historic Muni Bankruptcy

Buy EMC To Get VMware's Growth, But Not At VMware's Price
Buy Starbucks To Give Your Portfolio A Caffeinated Boost
10 Stocks That Are Cheaper Than You Think

UBS Has $2B Loss; Man Arrested in London
Is Netflix the Next Research in Motion?

RIMM Misses on Lower Sales
Microsoft unveils a radically redesigned Windows 8
Bank Of America Just Took Armageddon Off The Table

Central banks to provide dollar liquidity
How a stronger dollar shakes up your portfolio
Euro Will Continue To Fall: US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Gold Best Hedging Options

Stock Market Blog -Sep 11th

2011-09-11T22:11:00.005-04:00

The market ended the week with a 300+ drop in the DOW on Friday. Lots of uncertainty with the 911 anniversary on Sunday, a G7 meeting this weekend, Europe still in financial turmoil, and people trying to analyze the President's jobs speech given on Thursday night. Investors were running to safety, buying the 10 year Treasury notes and pushing the yield under 2% (post WWII levels), and also buying Gold.

BAC continues to be under pressure, with a corporate shakeup this week.
Likewise for YHOO, where they ousted the CEO.

New all time highs: AZO, ORLY, IEF, Gold stocks: AUY, GDX, NEM, NGD, RGLD
Continuing to lose ground: HPQ, GS, JPM, DB, STD, UBS, HBC, BCS, CS, EFA,

The Euro plummeted further this week, after breaking a support level on the charts at 1.40, so we could see further downside action there, and in the S&P 500, since they generally trade in the same direction.

The Swiss Franc also dropped after government intervention, also helping to push up the US Dollar, and further weakening the S&P 500.

New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 414,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Quarterly options expiration on Friday. Best Buy and RIMM to report earnings.

Market Commentary

Lets not forget that we are still in a bear market, so if you are buying anything, it should only be for a short bounce. The S&P500 could drop further to 'test' the previous low of Aug 8th, then maybe give us another bounce? On the other hand, we could see a relief rally on Monday or Tuesday, which would crush all the bears! This being options expiration week, and the end of the 3rd quarter, we should see added volatility, so expect anything! And don't forget the full moon on Monday too.

To hedge your portfolio from further downside action, inverse ETFs might be appropriate, as long as you understand 1) how they work, and 2) how to hedge! (SDS, QID, etc)

This weeks charts:
Bonds still climbing!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were higher, closing around $87.24 per barrel.
Natural Gas was slightly higher, closing near $3.92
Gold was up, then dropped, closing at $1860.
The 30 year Bond futures were up again, closing near $140'14. Still no top...
The US Dollar was higher, closing near 77.20, and pushing the S&P 500 down.

News:
Dow headed below 10,000 as cyclical bear begins
Markets Seeing Nothing but Classic Bear Action
Behind the Selloff: US Is Struggling, Europe Is Worse
Deepening fears about Europe sink stocks
U.S. Stocks Drop on Greece Concern
Greek default fears return

What's in Obama's stimulus plan

Is a Bottom in for the Dollar?
Euro Falls to Six-Month Low Against the Dollar as Stark Resigns from ECB
French Banks Poised for Moody’s Downgrade
Europe Banks Valued at Post-Lehman Low

Stock Market Blog -Sep 4th

2011-09-04T22:55:00.002-04:00

After some weak economic data, and no more Fed stimulus, the market pulled back near the end of the week. The monthly jobs data was a big disappointment, again. Unemployment remains at 9.1%, with zero new jobs added for last month! Good riddance to an ugly August for investors.

Gold mining stocks were up this week, with some breakouts.

New all time highs: CF, IEF, KO. Gold stocks -GDX, NEM, EGO, RGLD, NGD
New all time lows: TBT (inverse bonds), ZSL (inverse silver)
COMPANIES HITTING 52-WEEK HIGHS/LOWS

HPQ and RIMM are back below the lows of March 2009, the beginning of the 2 year rally!

New unemployment claims dropped, coming in at 409,000 (chart).
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Market Commentary

Well the market did bounce, then pull back. Was that the top for this recent bounce? It could be. We get to hear from the President on Thursday evening about creating new jobs again. We'll see how the market reacts. Can the 10 year bonds go any higher??

Issues in Europe with Greece and others could continue to keep the markets down. Our stock indexes seem to generally trade in the same direction as the Euro. September months can be ugly too!

This weeks charts:
Gold climbing again
Bonds still climbing!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing around $86.50 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $3.86
Gold was up again, closing at $1879.
The 30 year Bond futures were up again, closing near $140'14. Still no top...
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 74.88

News:
Stocks plunge after US hiring dries up in August
Stocks Lose for Week as Recession Fears Grow
Feds sue big banks over sales of risky investments
U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages
How Low Can The 10-Year Treasury Yield Go? (Part 1)

Ackermann Says Market Reminiscent of 2008
Bank of America May Have to Sell Merrill to Survive
Bank of America Loses Its Bounce
Netflix stock falls as talks on Starz deal unravel
The 10 Highest Momentum Stocks
Guide for Nervous Investors: What to Watch This Month

Euro-zone manufacturing PMI drops to two-year low

Stock Market Blog -Aug 28th

2011-08-28T16:07:00.004-04:00

The market showed some strength this week, closing near the highs after the Fed speech on Friday. Gold spiked to just over $1900 per ounce before dropping back a bit. Meanwhile, Greece continues to have financing issues in Euroland.

Apple this week announced the departure of Steve Jobs as CEO.The stock dropped initially, then rebounded.

New all time highs: CF, RGLD, NGD,
COMPANIES HITTING 52-WEEK HIGHS/LOWS

New unemployment claims came in higher again at 417,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Friday we get the monthly jobs report again -usually a market moving event.

Market Commentary

We got a nice bounce this week, which could indicate that the selling is over. The risk/reward favors the upside at this point so I would say it's safe to get in for a short term bounce. Until the market moves back over the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages though, the 'bigger trend' is still to the down side.

This weeks charts:

In charts: Weak GDP and weaker consumption
Gold hit another all time high, then pulled back
TAN -Solar ETF in the weeds
COCO -from $20 to $2!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $85.37 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.93
Gold was up, then pulled back, closing at $1797.
The 30 year Bond futures was up again, closing near $138.16 Still no top...
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 73.71
Meanwhile Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Rice continue to climb in price.

News:
Stocks break four-week losing streak
Economy: 'Slowdown is here to stay'
Three Bond ETFs To Weather The Storm
Beware the Bond Bubble. Again
What Bernanke said in Jackson Hole
Investors stick with Treasuries after Bernanke
Editorial: The Fed Should Go On Vacation

Buffett bets $5 billion on Bank of America
Morgan Stanley borrowed $107 billion, most of all banks, during 2008 financial company bailout
What’s B of A's problem now?

Debt will haunt the market for years to come

One Number Says it All

What Makes Steve Jobs Great
Why McDonald's wins in any economy

Gold $3,000?
Greek Bond Yields Climb to Record High on Speculation Bailout Will Fail

Stock Market Blog -Aug 21st

2011-08-20T12:22:00.010-04:00

This week we saw some big sell offs again in the market, though the volume wasn't quite as high as the sell offs earlier this month. Much of it was sparked by fears of a European financial crisis, along with bad economic numbers reported again this week. I won't be surprised to see a 2008 style financial crisis in Europe before long. Investors flee stock funds at rate not seen since 2008 panic

The 10 year bond reached an historic low yield below 2%, lower than during the 2008 financial meltdown! Is the bond market telling us something here???

Gold was on fire, and hit another record high! Last week marked 40 years since President Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard. Gold was $35 per oz. then, today it's $1852 per oz.

Google spent $12.5 billion to buy Motorola Mobility for their patents!

Hewlett Packard tanked on Friday, hitting prices not seen since 2005.
SHLD also dropped.

New unemployment claims came in at 408,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
Next week: (Economic reports link). Annual Fed meeting on Friday.

Bank stocks are in trouble again!
Bank of America
Citibank
Regions?
Bank of New York
(click to see charts)

Foreign banks: Deutsche Bank Societe Generale Barclays PLC

Market Commentary

We 'did' get a nice bounce on Monday, and European financial issues 'did' spoil the party -just what I said last week! I would still look for a bounce soon, to start getting out of long positions. I suspect the market will drop to the recent lows, then give us a bounce. Keep an eye on Europe still, as I expect things over there to deteriorate further. In a worst case scenario, we could fall all the way back down to 1050 or 1010 on the SPX, and give back all the QE2 gains!
Market’s rally from oversold levels may not stick

Looks like we are headed for a bear market as investors lose confidence, and into another recession as well (as if the first one ever ended!)

BTW, I'm one of those that believe high frequency trading should be banned (trading thousands of transactions in milliseconds). It can often cause unnecessary disruptions in what should be an orderly market, and it's only a matter of time before it creates another 'flash crash' or worse. This is not investing, it's becoming 'War Games' for stocks, where the computers take over the trading.

This weeks charts:
10 year Note yield hitting all time lows!
Gold continues to hit all time highs

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $82.25 per barrel. Looks like it's headed to $72
Natural Gas dropped too, closing near $3.94
Gold was up again, closing at $1852.
Silver broke out, above the $42 level.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $140.31 Light volume, but still no top yet!
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 74.05

Steep move up in Bonds

News:
Another nasty week for Wall Street
3 Crashes and Another Credit Crisis
Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored
Treasury Rally Pushes Yields to Record Lows
Bond markets signal 'Japanese' slump for US and Europe

Euro-Style Anxiety Spreads
BofA layoffs are the latest as an industry shrinks
For foreigners, the American Dream is very much alive
Road to downgrade began 40 years ago with ditching of gold standard

Overseas... Fears over French banks -Panic in Paris
Euro -We can't go on like this
German Second-Quarter Growth Almost Stalls as GDP Rises 0.1%

Japan's 20 year slump after their real estate bubble. Are we facing the same thing?

Stock Market Blog -Aug 14th

2011-08-14T15:18:00.006-04:00

This was a huge roller coaster week in the markets as we saw 400+ point swings in the DOW. We had the US debt downgrade, the Fed meeting on Tuesday, the unemployment report on Thursday, and lingering debt issues in Europe, all contributing to the ups and downs. Banks were the hardest hit (chart below -sectors). The DOW plunged 634 points on Monday!

Bond prices were expected to drop with the US debt downgrade, but we got a rally instead!
Oil prices dropped some more this week.
Gold rallied to another all time high, hitting more than $1800 at the peak!

New all time highs this week: CF

New unemployment claims came in at 395,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Volatility will continue...

Earnings reports continue to come in next week to include:
DELL, DE, HPQ, HD, LOW, WMT, TGT, ROST, TJX

Market commentary: We could get a nice bounce next week, though European financial issues could spoil the party again. I would use a bounce to start getting out of positions. Technical indicators suggest that the selling isn't over yet. Also this market looks like it could be headed lower as the year progresses.

This weeks charts:
S&P500 -the 2 year bull market from March '09 might be in trouble
DOW 25 years -can we drop back to 8000?
More 25 year charts GE CAT AAPL MSFT IBM MCD XOM
25 years of Citibank!
25 years of Bank of America
Gold hits another all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $85.30 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.05
Gold was up again, closing at $1742
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $136.93 No top yet!
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 74.60

News:
After a wild week for stocks, what to do?
Dow finishes wild week on an up note
Treasuries shake but survive first AA+ week
Europe on the Brink: Does Their Fall Ensure Our Recession?
European regulators ban short selling
Traders Slash Bets Against Dollar by Record Amount as U.S. Treasuries Soar
Fed pledges very low interest rates for 2 years

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Three-Decade Low Amid Economic Headwinds
Withdrawals From Stock Funds Biggest Since ’08
Is This a New Bear Market? The Chart That Tells The Whole Story
New Bear Market or "Healthy Correction"?
Postal Service proposing cutting 120,000 jobs
Computers rule Wall Street
Apple Overtakes Exxon Becoming World’s Most Valuable Company

Stock Market Blog -Aug 7th

2011-08-05T23:05:00.008-04:00

The debt ceiling 'show' is over, and now it's time for a new show: U.S. triple-A debt rating cut by Standard & Poor’s!

Last week our illustrious government representatives were scurrying to get a debt ceiling deal done to avoid a negative market reaction on Sunday night. So they got a 'deal' done, and guess what? the markets tanked anyway. (Stocks: Worst week since financial crisis). The DOW dropped over 500 points the day after the 'deal' was done!

Also on Friday we got a better than expected jobs report, but the market continued its downtrend. Next week we'll see more turmoil in the markets as we deal with this US debt downgrade.

This past 2 weeks we have seen a fast drop in the market

New all time highs this week: ?
Drops: BRCD, DNDN, MRO, PMI

New unemployment claims came in right at 400,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Fed meeting next week. The US debt downgrade will probably be the focus of next week's market action however.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week to include:
Cisco, Disney, J C Penny,

Market commentary: The market tested the 'lows' -(last week's commentary), and went even lower, with huge volume! This is ugly. I'm sure we'll get a bounce, but the longer term picture just changed for the worse. Looks like we are headed in bear market territory now. Use any bounce to get out of long positions or to establish a hedge.

This weeks charts:
SPY -dropping like a rock!
SPX -we might eventually make it all the way down to the 1025 area!
DNDN -dropped like a rock
BAC -no relief in sight
BRCD -trouble

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices saw a huge drop, closing around $86.88 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.94
Gold was up again, closing at $1651
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $132.2. Is this the top in bonds?
The US Dollar was up, closing near 74.60

News:
Stocks: Worst week since financial crisis
Sort Through the Wreckage of a 500-point Down Day
Treasuries: 'It's pretty grim'
Fannie Mae loss widens; asking taxpayers for $2.8B
Rhode Island city files for bankruptcy
Chronicle of gloom: Economic indicators at lows

S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating
S&P's $2 Trillion Error Didn't Change Rating Cut Decision
S&P said to back away from U.S. downgrade
China Tells US 'Good Old Days' of Borrowing Over

Jobs recovery still weak
Jobs report: A pig in lipstick
Mass Layoffs Rise
Food stamp use rises to record 45.8 million
Oil near $86 as outlook for crude demand dims
New Fee to Bank Cash

Massive HSBC Layoffs Only the Beginning
Switzerland Desperately Tries To Control Its Currency
Bank of Japan Adds Monetary Stimulus, Supporting Effort to Cool Yen Gains
Asian Stocks Tumble 11% From May High on Economic Growth Concern
Carlos Slim Loses $6.7 Billion in a Week

Stock Market Blog -Jul 31st

2011-07-30T15:50:00.012-04:00

This was a bad week in the markets! The debt ceiling issue caused some investor angst, along with lousy GDP numbers on Friday. Things aren't getting better folks, despite what you hear in the media. The market has gone nowhere in the past 7 months (chart below).

Also, Bond prices were up! With the US credit limit at stake, one would have expected bonds to drop -so much for trying to figure out market direction.

Bonds were up this week!

Check out the debt clock on the left side of this blog! It was just in 2008 that the debt clock in Times Square, NY ran out of digits as we hit $10,000,000,000,000 in debt!

New all time highs this week: DECK, GMCR, GLD, IAU, JAZZ
Drops: AEM, IMAX, JNPR, MMM, MRK, STEC, S

New unemployment claims were under 400000, coming in at 398,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The markets anxiously await a final resolution to the debt ceiling issue. Next Friday we also get the much anticipated monthly jobs report.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week to include:
Kraft Foods, Clorox, Mastercard, Priceline, and Pfizer.

Market commentary: So much for breaking out above the May high in the S&P 500! We gave up all the gains from the prior week, with all the indexes taking out the mid-July low. Now we may see the market test the 'lows' before resuming any up-trend.

This weeks charts:
GLD -new all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $95.70 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.15.
Gold was up again, closing at $1631
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $128.19
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 73.90
Currencies rallying against the US dollar: Yen, Swiss, New Zealand!

News:
Stocks: Worst week in 2011
GDP grows slender 1.3% in second quarter
Why we’ll have 10% unemployment soon
Gold hits record high amid debt ceiling 'mud slinging'
Silver May Rebound to Test $100 Level, Citigroup Says

Nearly half of Americans believe members of Congress are corrupt, as debt talks continue
6% Of American Voters Think Congress Is Doing A Good Job
SOROS TO QUIT HEDGE FUND AND RETURN CASH TO INVESTORS
Moody's warns Greek default virtually 100 percent

Stock Market Blog -Jul 24th

2011-07-23T12:50:00.014-04:00

The market rallied and took back all of the losses from the prior week, with Technology, Energy, and Financials leading the way! News of another Greece bailout, along with good earnings reports (like AAPL) helped move the markets up.

Interestingly, the Nasdaq 100 has now surpassed the high of 2007, just before the financial crisis took the markets down.

New all time highs: AAPL, CLX, GLD, IAU, FOSL, JAZZ (same as last week!)
Also: IBM, ISRG, KO, MCD, PM
Earnings pop: AAPL, AMD, IBM, KO, MCD, MS
New all time lows: PSQ, DXD (inverse 'leveraged' Nasdaq 100 and the DOW)

New unemployment claims were up again, this time to 418,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Reports include Q2 GDP on Friday.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week:
Mon -BIDU, NFLX, TXN
Tue -BIIB, BP, CMI, F, MMM, AMZN GILD, JNPR
Wed -BA, COP, GMCR, V
Thu -XOM, SBUX
Fri -MRK,

Market commentary: Earnings will continue to move the markets next week as we get reports from some of the big oil companies, and some more DOW stocks. If we can break out above the May high in the S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000, that could bode well for the markets. The NASDAQ 100 has already taken out that high. The S&P 500 is forming a nice inverted head & shoulders bullish pattern.

From my blog post last week...
"On the optimistic side, we could be forming an ABC pattern from the low in late June, with the next leg being bullish after this recent pullback."

Here is what the market actually did this week (nice ABC pattern!):

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -maybe an ABC pattern forming
KO -new all time high
MCD -new all time high
PSQ -new all time low -be careful with leveraged ETFs!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $99.80 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.40.
Gold was up slightly, closing at $1600 for the first time ever; silver closed over $40
The 30 year Bond was down a bit, closing near $125.88.
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 74.46

News:
Stocks end week solidly higher
Stocks: Big week ahead
Debt ceiling: Now what?
Apple’s on a roll; now comes the hard part
BofA to give away houses
Citi and Morgan Stanley Borrowed Over $2 Trillion From Fed
American Airlines Orders 460 Narrowbody Aircraft
Borders Bookstore Will Eliminate 11,000 Jobs, Close 400 Remaining Stores
U.S. lost $14B on auto bailout... Excellent!

Day Traders' Switch to Currency Speculation
Gold to Fall Below $1320 in Second Half of 2011
Petrobras unveils $225 billion investment plan
China to Wall Street: The Side-Door Shuffle
Ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn had sex with three women...

Stock Market Blog -Jul 17th

2011-07-15T15:23:00.010-04:00

GOOG stock rallied by $70 on Friday after reporting great earnings! The market however was down for the week. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling, European financial difficulties, the end of the Fed's QE2 program, and a lack of jobs continue to weigh on the market. The Financial sector led the way down this week.

New all time highs: AAPL, CLX, GLD, IAU, FOSL, JAZZ
Gold hit an all time high again!

New unemployment claims dropped to 405,000 (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Earnings reports continue to come in next week:
Mon -IBM
Tue -GS, KO, BAC, WFC, JNJ, AAPL, CMG, ISRG, VMW, YHOO
Wed -BIDU, MO, UTX, AXP, INTC
Thu -T,F, AMD, FCX, MSFT, DECK
Fri -CAT, GE, MCD, VZ

Market commentary: We lost some ground last week as the Fed didn't light any more fires under the economy. The market will primarily be driven by the slew of earnings releases due next week, with lots of anxiety about AAPL, especially after the blowout numbers we got from GOOG this week. AAPL could go either way in my opinion -they have some challenges ahead of them; remember it's not about whether they report great numbers, but rather how the market reacts to those numbers.

The overall market has been in a trendless, trading range since February, the most difficult type of market to trade. On the optimistic side, we could be forming an ABC pattern from the low in late June, with the next leg being bullish after this recent pullback.

Bonds may be doing a double top here...

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -maybe an ABC pattern forming
GOOG -moonshot to $600!
AAPL -whats next? double top?
GLD -all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $97.20 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.55.
Gold was up, closing at an all time high of $1590.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $126.
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 75.40

News:
Stocks unsettled by debt uncertainty
Stock Market: There Are Striking Similarities To Last Years Correction
Google+ grows to 10 million users
Gold Stocks to Outsparkle Gold in Post-QE2 World
Trading Of Over The Counter Gold And Silver To Be Illegal Beginning July 15
Short sale fraud plagues the housing market

The Swiss Can Barely Afford Their Currency
Italy and the euro on the edge

Stock Market Blog -Jul 10th

2011-07-09T19:42:00.003-04:00

The market drifted up some more this week, only to drop on Friday after a very disappointing jobs report. Unemployment is up again, coming in at 9.2%.

Also, the US Dollar looks like it wants to start an up-trend, which could mean more downside action in stocks.

New all time highs: AMZN, DTV, GMCR, GLNG, NFLX, XLY

New unemployment claims dropped to 418,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings reports start coming in. Also, Options expiration on Friday!!

Eanings reports:
Mon -AA
Tue -
Wed -YUM
Thu -GOOG, JPM
Fri -C

Market commentary: We are approaching the May top again, so be careful. Earnings will be driving market direction in the coming weeks. If we are able to break out above the May high, we could see a nice rally, otherwise we could be stuck in a trading range near 1300 on the S&P500.

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -still approaching the May top
DTV -all time high
NFLX -all time high
XLY -all time high (Consumer discretionary!)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing around $96.20 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.20.
Gold was up, closing near $1541.
The 30 year Bond jumped on Friday, closing near $125.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 75.50

News:
Stocks end lower on weak jobs growth
Unemployment rose to 9.2 percent as hiring stalls
Hiring weak in June, with only 18,000 jobs created
Earnings growth cooled in second quarter
Transport stocks: The little engine that can't
'Cold Summer' for Markets as Rally Hits a Jobs Wall
FHA gives jobless homeowners one-year break

China June Inflation at 3-Year High; Revives Rate Debate
Go big on the debt ceiling
ECB raises interest rates, hints at more increases
The next, worse financial crisis
How nations go bankrupt, one sliver at a time

There is Nothing to Fear but the TSA Itself

Stock Market Update -July 3rd

2011-07-02T17:19:00.010-04:00

We got a huge rally this week, with big gains every day wiping out most of the prior losses for the month. This was the best one week rally in 2 years. 'Short covering' probably added fuel to push the rally higher, along with some temporary relief from the situation in Greece.

We'll have to see if it turns into a sustained up-trend. Of course, as stocks rallied, the US Dollar was down, and the Euro rallied; Bonds were also down as stocks rose.

New all time highs: ACN, AMZN, AVGO, BBBY, BIIB, CMG, COH, DRI, DTV, IBM, MCD, SBUX, SODA, TIF, XRT, UTX, YUM

New unemployment claims were mostly unchanged at 428,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). 4 day trading week. Happy 4th of July!
We get the much anticipated monthly Jobs report on Friday morning.

Market commentary: The market rallied nicely off support this week. We're seeing stocks hitting new all time highs again (see above). This rally could continue further if we get good earnings reports a week from now!

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -approaching the May top
XLK -Technology -nice rally off the bottom- like most stocks
TLT -Gov bonds -dropped! inverse relationship to stocks -was that the top!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing around $95.00 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged closing near $4.30.
Gold tumbled, in spite of the dollar dropping, closing near $1480.
The 30 year Bond tumbled as stocks rose, closing near $122.68.
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 75.45.

News:
Earnings: The market's bright spot
Best-performing stocks of 2011
Bank of America in $8.5-billion mortgage settlement
Bank of America Slays Countrywide Beast
Minnesota government shuts down

Homeowners Get Break On Mortgage—Without Asking
Looming Loss of Federal Incentives Darkens Future of Solar Power Stocks
It Looks Like The Bond Rally Is Over (TBF, TLT)

Stock Market Blog -Jun 26th

2011-06-26T11:41:00.008-04:00

Lots of indecision in the markets this week. Seems like the Fed Chairman spooked the market on Wednesday, with a weak outlook on the US economy. The US Dollar rallied as the Euro dropped (not sure which came first!), while all other asset classes dropped, including Oil, Gold, and the S&P 500. Of course Bonds rallied as money looked for a safer place to hide.

New all time highs: SOLR -this solar company is rallying while all others are dropping!
Also BIIB, LULU

GOOG continues to drop as technology (XLK) tries to find a bottom in this downdraft.

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week marks the end of the quarter -we could see some mutual fund window dressing affect the markets.

Market commentary: We are still trying to put in a bottom in the market -maybe after the quarter ends this week?

News:

Stock Market Blog -Jun 19th

2011-06-18T14:26:00.006-04:00

The market continued its downward trend this week, approaching a potential level of support at 1250 on the S&P 500. We'll probably get a bounce at that level. With all the news about Greece, the Euro dropped, helping to push the US Dollar up, and stocks and commodities down. Oil and Natural Gas saw a big drop this week, while Bonds rallied.

RIMM tumbled some more this week on bad earnings.
AAPL & GOOG dropped on Friday -Options expiration??

New unemployment claims dropped to 414,000 (chart).
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). We have a Fed meeting next week, along with earnings from ORCL and FDX. We should also get news on the financial crisis in Greece on Monday.

Market commentary: 'Looks like we may be headed down to the next support level near 1250 on the S&P 500' -This was last week's comment. We are almost there. I'm looking for a bounce in that area, but the big picture is still bearish.

This month marks the end of the Fed's QE2 stimulus program. This month also marks the end of the 2nd quarter (mutual funds window dressing?).

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -approaching the March bottom
XLK -Technology -already past the March bottom
TLT -Gov bonds -will they go higher?

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices tumbled, closing around $92.90 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped to near $4.33.
Gold was up a bit, closing near $1540.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $127'06.
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 75.45.

Corn dropped, after rallying to all time highs last week.
Most commodities were down, as the Euro dropped, and the dollar rallied.

News:
Stocks have their first winning week since April
Investors search for signs U.S. will avert a double dip
Fed set to cut growth forecast during meeting
U.S. recovery could take until 2018
Investors Take Warning: Storm Clouds Gathering

Pandora sees quick rise and fall with IPO
Oracle seeks billions from Google over Java patent
J.C. Penney taps Apple’s retail chief as CEO
How long can BofA shareholders tread water?
10 Vintage Stocks Worth a Fortune
Greece poses $41 billion risk to U.S. banks
UK banks abandon eurozone over Greek default fears

Stock Market Blog -Jun 12th

2011-06-11T22:08:00.010-04:00

Another ugly week in the markets. The market dropped as the US Dollar rallied against the Euro. Bonds held up, keeping interest rates down. The $600 billion QE2 stimulus from the Fed is winding down this month, so we'll see how the market reacts. BTW, QE2 didn't work -just more money down the drain!

AAPL stock continued to drop, in spite of the much anticipated developers conference with Steve Jobs on Monday. RIMM, CSCO, and others also continued to drop.

The major indexes are all down since May 1st.; meanwhile Bonds are up...

New unemployment claims increased again to 427,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
Unofficial Problem Bank list over 1,000 Institutions

Next week: (Economic reports link). Don't forget Options & Futures expiration this coming Friday, a quarterly expiration cycle.

Market commentary: Looks like we may be headed down to the next support level near 1250 on the S&P 500. We are also approaching the 200MA, so we can expect at least a nice bounce when we get there.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices are still stuck in a trading range, closing just over $99 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, then dropped to near $4.75.
Gold dropped a bit, closing near $1528.
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $126'31.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 74.83.

Corn rallied to all time highs after a negative crop report!

News:
Dow falls below 12K; stocks drop 6 weeks straight
Investors nervous as stock market eyes correction
Yes, You Should Buy TIPS; Here's How and When
Things could get ugly as debt cloud grows
Two Clear Warning Signs From the Corporate Bond Markets
It might be time to talk double-dip recession
Meredith Whitney: State finances are worse than estimated

Investing: Why bank stocks went bust
It's time to bet against the government
The Fallacy Of the Steep Yield Curve
Second-Mortgage Misery
Why do we fear a rising China?
Exxon discovers 700 million barrels in Gulf of Mex

Stock Market Blog -Jun 5th

2011-06-04T23:02:00.008-04:00

We saw a sharp sell-off in the market this week after an attempted rally early in the week. Bad economic news, including a very disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Friday, caused the market to continue the sell-off started on May 1st! The unemployment rate is back up to 9.1%, and the DOW is now down 5 weeks in a row.

The market was unable to gather any strength in spite of a pullback in the US Dollar. Bonds were up again as investors scurried for safety.

New all time highs: PHK, HANS, NFLX -nothing stops Netflix!

New unemployment claims dropped to 422,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Market commentary: Well, The S&P 500 did fail to stay above the 1340 level that I mentioned last week, and dropped like a rock when it got there! We could find support near here (1300), get a bounce, then drop again to the next support level near 1250.

Prior week comment...

This week!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing just over $100 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.70.
Gold was up, closing near $1541.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $126'18.
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 73.80.

News:
Stocks post fifth straight week of losses
Dow Average Has Its Longest Weekly Slump Since 2004
Payrolls Expand at Slowest Pace in Eight Months as U.S. Slowdown Persists
State of U.S. economy grows murkier

Unemployment Jumps Back to 9.1%
Falling Home Prices Hit Big Banks, Fannie, Freddie
R.I.P. Reaganomics Revolution: 1981-2011

Stock Market Blog -May 29th

2011-05-29T21:18:00.011-04:00

The market dropped on Monday, then rallied back to recoup those losses by the end of the week. GDP numbers were disappointing however. Overall, the market has been down 4 weeks in a row. Bonds rallied again this week.

New all time highs: COH, CRM, GMCR, NFLX, NVS, TIF

5 Earnings Busters to Trade Now, Part I
Better Real Estate Investing: 4 High Yield REITs

New unemployment claims rose to 424,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Markets are closed on Monday for Memorial day. The monthly jobs report will be released on Friday, a potential market moving event.

Market commentary: If the S&P 500 can rally over the 1340 level, we could see more up-side in the market. Note that the last 2 rally attempts this month have both failed.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly up, closing just over $100 per barrel
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.50.
Gold was up, closing near $1535.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $125'25.
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 75.

News:
Stock investors brace for next round of weak data
Economic Growth Disappoints as GDP Gain Just 1.8%
Where's the Recovery? Hopes For Economic Rebound Fade
Why Corporate Bonds May Not Be Such a Smart Bet
Why Strong Dollar Hurts Stocks, and What You Can Do
Summer forecast: weak stocks and a big sell-off. Then QE3?
Government Doesn't Create Jobs
General Motors Will Never Repay Taxpayers

Overseas
Ten Reasons Why China is Different
Norway’s lessons for Brazil
Euro Falls on Europe Debt Concern
Fitch lowers outlook on Japan sovereign debt
The Audacity of Chinese Frauds

Chinese investment gone bad!

Stock Market Blog -May 22nd

2011-05-21T11:51:00.006-04:00

Stocks were mixed for the week, making little progress overall. The chart below shows that the S&P500 is still near the 1340 level it hit in February. Caution would be advised for short term investors; for the long term, the up-trend is still intact (see 2nd chart below).

One bright spot, maybe, was the IPO for LinkedIn which opened at $45, shot up to $122, and closed on Friday around $93. Anyone remember 1999 -the 'dot-com' era?

Pops this week: CRM
Drops: ARUN, GPS, HPQ, SPLS
New all time highs: MCD, MO, XLP

The long term trend is still intact (well above the 200 day moving average)

New unemployment claims dropped to 409,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings: CPB, AMAT, NTAP

Market commentary: The market still seems weak, hovering at the 1340 price level on the S&P500! Bond prices are going up, and the US Dollar is rising. As the chart below shows the correlation, the market will probably drop some more if the US Dollar continues to rally.

This Chart Says It All

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly flat, closing around $99.50 per barrel
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.23.
Gold was up, closing near $1508.
Silver closed around $35
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $124'27.
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 75.57.
Corn and Wheat were both up

News:
Stock investors worry: Is ride getting rougher?
Treasurys add to week’s gains on Europe worries
US dips into pension funds as debt limit hit
A Shovel-Empty Waste Of $787 Billion
Pop till you drop (LinkedIn IPO)
Midcaps: The market's 'sweet spot'
Nasdaq Deja Vu
Meaningless ‘strong dollar’

Overseas
Fitch cuts Greece, warns against ‘re-profiling’
In Spain, protesters rally a battered nation

Stock Market Blog -May 15th

2011-05-13T16:41:00.010-04:00

The market was indecisive this week, closing mostly unchanged. The US Dollar rally continued, putting more pressure on stocks and commodities. The Financial and Energy sectors were hardest hit.

AAPL and BIDU were weak; also SINA, SOHU
CSCO dropped after reporting earnings, and GS dropped further on a downgrade.

S&P sector leaders - XLV, XLU S&P sector laggards - XLB, XLF, XLE,

10 triple-digit stock winners

High priced DOW stocks have recently been hitting all time highs and pushing up the index
(the DOW is a 'price weighted' index!)

DOW laggards 3 Dow stocks that are in a slow death spiral

New unemployment claims dropped a bit to 434,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Options expiration on Friday.

Quarterly earnings season is winding down; companies reporting include: HD, WMT

Market commentary: We are back at the 1340ish support level in the S&P500. We could bounce or break from here -wait to see which direction it takes. The market seems to be getting weaker. We are basically back to the late February 1340 price level on the S&P!

The 'big picture' chart below shows that the NASDAQ and the Russell small caps are at long term resistance levels, while the DOW and S&P have yet to make it up there.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, then dropped, closing around $99.65 per barrel
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.25.
Gold was up slightly, closing near $1493.
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $124'14.
The US Dollar continued its rally, closing near 75.94.

The big picture...

News:
As stock market slows down, defensive stocks shine
Commercial real estate poisoning small banks
Fannie Mae seeks $8.5 billion more in federal aid

$6.2 trillion: A decade of deficits
Treasuries fall after disappointing 30-year auction
Has the Commodities Bubble Popped?
No more free lunch for commodities investors

Who's buying ETFs
Too Hot for Their Own Good? 10 Overheating Stocks Ripe for a Pullback
Rajaratnam convicted on all insider trading charges

Stock Market Blog -May 8th

2011-05-07T09:44:00.011-04:00

This was a bad week in the market. The dollar rallied and as a result took everything down, including stocks. Commodities plunged (Oil, Gold, Silver, and more). The 'energy' sector was the hardest hit (see sector chart below).

Thursday's unemployment claims report was much higher than expected. And the jobs report on Friday had both good and bad news -more jobs were added, but the unemployment rate is back up to 9%. The market rallied in the morning, then gave it all back!

GMCR rallied (all time high), while OPEN plunged... BIDU dropped too, and ROST hit an all time high.

New unemployment claims rose unexpectedly, again, this time to 474,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). $72 billion more in Treasury auctions next week (selling dollars!)

Quarterly earnings season is winding down; companies reporting include:
Mon:
Tue: DIS
Wed: CSCO
Thu: NVDA
Fri:

Market commentary: After pulling back last week, we could now see the market resume the up-trend from the current support level in the S&P500. The direction next week would give us a hint as to whether we can expect more downside action. If the dollar continues to rally, it will have a negative impact on stocks (and commodities). Also, the pullback in Oil and Silver was so severe that we should at least see a little bounce.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices plunged from $115 to close around $97 per barrel!
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $4.23.
Gold plunged, closing near $1491.
Silver plunged, closing near 35.28
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $124'10.
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 75.

Most commodities were hammered this week as the dollar rallied!

News:
Unemployment Rate Back to 9%
IShares Silver ETF has $1 Billion Outflow—Worst Week Ever
Panic in the Pits: Silver Plunge Spreads to Oil, Copper
Mini 'Crashes' Hit Commodity Trade
Commodities Bubble Bursting? Not By a Long Shot: Pros
THE TIPPING POINT HAS ARRIVED

Citigroup Tries to Boost Image With a Reverse Stock Split
Fannie bailout nears $100 billion
Fannie Mae seeks $8.5 billion more in federal aid
Inevitability of a Default in Greece

Stock Market Blog -May 1st

2011-04-29T23:52:00.011-04:00

The market continued to rally higher this week as the US Dollar dropped further. The indexes are now at a three year high (the NASDAQ closed at a 10 year high). Bonds also rallied (normally an inverse relationship). Ben Bernanke, in the first Fed press conference ever, reiterated his low interest rate and money printing plan to stoke the economy. This continues to drive the dollar down.

Gold and Silver also rallied strongly on the weak dollar.
And the national debt is now over $14.5 trillion dollars!
New all time highs: AMZN APKT CAT DTV GLD/SLV MDY OXY XLP XRT
...SDS, QID, and TWM closed at all time lows! (inverse market ETFs)

AMZN popped, while RIMM dropped

New unemployment claims rose unexpectedly, this time to 429,000 (chart).
This week, five more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Monthly jobs report on Friday, a potential market mover.

Quarterly earnings season continues, to include reports from the following companies:
Mon: CHK
Tue: PFE MA LVS
Wed: RIGThu: EP V
Fri:
A handful of gold miners and solar companies report this week as well.

Market commentary: We did break through the double top on the S&P 500 this week (see chart above). Good earnings have been the driving force for the market (as well as the weak dollar). Watch for the monthly unemployment report next Friday as that can be a catalyst for market movement (up or down!). We continue to be in an uptrend, with the indexes above both the 20 and 50 period moving averages.

Note: the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) will be rebalanced as of Monday 2nd, reducing the weighting of AAPL, and increasing others like INTC and CSCO. Expect some price action in the stocks affected.

Relative performance of the major indexes since September

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $113.9 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied nicely, closing near $4.60.
Gold rallied further, closing near $1556, another record high!
Silver is approaching $50 -maybe nearing a short-term top.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $122'12.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 73.11.

News:
Stocks finish April sharply higher
GDP: Economic recovery stumbles
Investors, it's time to run and hide
One Million Exhausted Jobless Benefits in Past Year
Bernanke says economy needs more time to heal
The economy is stronger than headline numbers suggest.
What's wrong with America's economy?
A Reversal for Real Estate After Some Mild Gains

Microsoft stock stalls as profit margins soar
US Dollar Under Pressure, Euro at 16 Month High
How Low Can the Dollar Go?
Silver Reaches for Record
Downside Targets for Silver
Bank of America's New Credit Card Penalty Interest Rate Is Nearly 30%
PUTTING PAST BUBBLES TO SHAME

Stock Market Blog -Apr 24th

2011-04-25T08:58:00.005-04:00

The market saw a big drop on Monday, followed by a nice recovery the rest of the week. Positive earnings helped the rally.

AAPL, INTC, and VMW popped after reporting earnings

New unemployment claims dropped, this time to 403,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The Fed meets this week, so look for possible actions that might affect the markets.

Quarterly earnings season continues, to include reports from the following companies:

Mon: NFLX
Tue: AMZN F KO MMM UPS VLO
Wed: BA BIDU BP COP SBUX
Thu: MSFT PG XOM
Fri: CAT CVX MRK

Market commentary: Earnings will continue to be the driving force for the markets next week. The S&P500 could form a triple top, but if we get good earnings, it could easily break through that top (see above chart). The DOW has already taken out its prior top.

Once again, Gold and Silver continue to rally, along with most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $113 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.40.
Gold rallied further, closing over $1500!
The 30 year Bond was up slightly, closing near $121.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 74.

News:
Stocks sink after S&P warns on U.S. debt
S&P lowers its outlook: Could U.S. default on its debt?
US STOCKS-Wall St ends strong week with new earnings attitude

Don't Like a Weak Dollar? Might as Well Get Used to It
Silver, Gold Rise to Records as Asian Stocks Fall; Yen Weakens
Silver nears $50 an ounce; gold hits record
In U.S., 54% Have Stock Market Investments, Lowest Since 1999

Stock Market Blog -Apr 17th

2011-04-17T14:06:00.006-04:00

The market recovered a bit on Thursday and Friday. If earnings reports are any indication though, of the four major companies reporting this week, all fell after reporting! (AA, JPM, GOOG, BAC). Bonds rallied, along with Gold and Silver. Major currencies rallied against the US Dollar too.

New all time highs: BIDU, MCP, MO, PRGO, SINA, XLP,

GOOG shares plunged $48 after reporting earnings on Thursday.

New unemployment claims rose to 412,000 (chart).
This week, six more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The markets are closed on Good Friday. Quarterly earnings season continues. Companies reporting include:

Mon: C, TXN
Tue: GS IBM INTC JNJ YHOO
Wed: AAPL T FCX TRV WFC
Thu: MCD GE MS DD MS

Market commentary: Earnings will be the driving force for the markets next week.

The VIX has dropped back to the low level we saw recently, which might indicate more downside for the market if you use the VIX as a contrarian indicator.

The RSI indicator is showing a negative divergence on the major indexes, indicating more downside for the markets as well.

Gold, and Silver continue to rally. Likewise for most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices pulled back, closing just under $110 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.20
Gold rallied further, closing near $1486! Another all time high.
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $120'17.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 75.

News:
Earnings deluge awaits investors
U.S. economy in rough patch. Will it last?
Goldman Calls Commodities Top: Is Now the Time to Sell?
Bank of America's Mortgage Curse
The Fed Rescue Program Too Bizarre to Be True
Ten Stocks That Might Be Ripe for a Sell-Off
Why Europe’s debt crisis isn’t over

Stock Market Blog -Apr 10th

2011-04-10T20:32:00.004-04:00

New all time highs: BIDU, GLD, GG, MCP, SLV, SLW, XRT,

New unemployment claims dropped to 382,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Quarterly earnings season begins once again, with AA kicking things off on Monday. Other companies reporting include: JPM, GOOG, BAC

Market commentary: The S&P 500 seems to be stalled at the 1340 level. We'll see if earning next week will give it a boost, or cause further weakness like we saw on Friday.

Oil, Gold, and Silver continue to rally. Likewise for most currencies (against the US Dollar).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied even more, closing just above $113 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $4.03
Gold rallied further, closing near $1470! An all time high.
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $118'16.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 75.

News:
US Oil Settles Near $113, Highest Since Sept. 2008
Gold Miners In Breakout Mode As Dollar Slumps
Toxic Dollar: Why Nobody Seems to Want US Currency

Stock Market Blog -Mar 27th

2011-03-27T15:59:00.004-04:00

The market recovered nicely this week, taking us back over the 1300 level on the S&P 500. Japan's woes continue, the bombing continues in Libya, and the market continues to go up!
Gold continues to climb too, hitting another record high this week.

Citi's stock can't seem to move up past $5, so they are doing a 10 for 1 reverse stock split to get the price up close to $50! You can fool some of the people some of the time...

RIMM dropped on earnings, while ORCL was up after reporting their earnings.

New all time highs: ABC, BIDU, CAT, CSX, CVX, CTSH, DTV, SINA

New unemployment claims dropped to 382,000 (chart).
This week, one more bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The big news next week will be the monthly Jobs report on Friday. We also continue to watch events in Japan, Libya, and Europe -and now Syria and Israel too.

Market commentary: The market has rallied back from the dip we saw in the first half of this month. Being the end of the quarter this week, I expect we will see some more positive movement for now. Oil might be doing a 'double top' for now.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just above $105 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied (finally!), closing near $4.40
Gold rallied, closing near $1426
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $120.
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing just over 76.

News:
U.S. stocks notch weekly gains
Citigroup Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Split
Sales of new U.S. homes tumble 16.9% to record low
Consumer sentiment falls sharply in March
iPad 2: Out of stock by Saturday
Michael Dell’s Very Big Stock Purchase
Gold futures notch record high

Another eurozone crisis is coming – this time it's Portugal
Japan reports rise in radioactive seawater

Stock Market Blog -Mar 20th

2011-03-19T23:43:00.003-04:00

The market dropped early in the week, then recovered somewhat by Friday. Banks rallied on Fed news about being able to pay dividends again. The nuclear reactor situation in Japan worsened, while earthquake and tsunami victims are scrambling for help (seems like the news forgot about them). The US Dollar continued to drop, and Oil is back over $100 again.

New all time highs: BSFT, CSX

New unemployment claims dropped to 385,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). We continue to monitor the news out of Japan and the Middle East. GDP report on Friday too.

RIMM and ORCL report earnings on Thursday.

Market commentary: The market stumbled again this week, though it recovered a bit on Thursday and Friday. With all the bad news out there, I don't see much to hold the market up. We may be setting up for a larger correction in this two year rally. Keep your eye on the US Dollar too -if it starts to rally, it could hurt the market.

Now that we've started bombing Libya, next week could be an interesting one in the markets.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, then recovered, closing near $101 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $4.17
Gold dropped, then recovered, closing near $1416
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $123'11.
The US Dollar was down, closing just under 76. All major currencies rallied on Friday, except the US Dollar!

News:

Inflation pressure bubbles, home building dives
What the End of QE2 Means for the Market
The bull market is over – we're in a bear market now
What’s next for commodities with Japan in crisis
AT&T to buy T-Mobile USA for $39 billion
Florida: 18 Percent of Homes are Vacant

U.S. Missiles Strike Libyan Air-Defense Targets
West Plans More Strikes on Libya Despite Arab Criticism
BoJ Injects Another 5 Trillion Yen to Calm Market
Central Banks Set to Tighten Despite Japan Crisis

Stock Market Blog -Mar 13th

2011-03-12T00:07:00.006-05:00

The big news this week was the huge earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The market however reacted to the up-side on Friday. The up-trend seems to be breaking down here, so I would use any rally to take profits.

New unemployment claims were back up again, this time to 397,000 (chart).
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Triple witching -expiration for Options, Futures...

Market commentary: The market faltered some more this week, so be careful. Being options expiration week for the 1st quarter, I expect we'll see a bounce next week (to take out all the shorts?).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $100 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.90
Gold dropped, closing near $1421 (quadruple top??)
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $122.
The US Dollar was up, closing just under 77.

News:
Stocks plunge on economic news, oil price swings
The Dow's Plunge: Should You Be Worried?
Pimco Move Could Send More Investors Out of Treasurys

Japan central bank injects $184B as stocks plunge
Second explosion at stricken Japan nuke plant

Stock Market Blog -Mar 6th

2011-03-05T15:15:00.007-05:00

This was a rocky week, with big moves up, and big moves down. The monthly jobs report on Friday showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 8.9%, but the market sold off anyway.

Gold, Silver, and Oil hit new highs, as the US Dollar continued to drop.

New all time highs: APKT, CVX, DTV, NTES, PAY, PHK, PNRA, PRGO, SLV, SLW, TJX

New unemployment claims were down to 368,000, a 3 year low! (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The Treasury auctions $66 billion in notes and bonds.

Market commentary: The up-trend is still intact, and I expect we will see the market continue higher in coming weeks -too many bearish traders expecting it to go down! The weak US Dollar helps to push it up too.

This month marks the 2 year anniversary of this huge bull run, with some indexes now up over 100%.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices shot up again, closing near $104.4 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.8
Gold was up, closing near $1428.
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $120'26.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 76.4 -approaching a double bottom??

News:
Stocks: Dow tumbles on oil fears
Week Ahead: Oil Pressure to Remain on Stocks
Oil Ends Above $104 in Highest Close Since September '08
Jobless claims fall to nearly 3-year low
U.S. adds 192,000 jobs; jobless rate dips to 8.9%
Charting unemployment – good news & bad news
Home prices: The double-dip is near

Stock Market Blog -Feb 28th

2011-02-27T09:21:00.005-05:00

After options expiration on the previous Friday, the market pulled back this week, then rallied back a bit on Friday. Bonds rallied too, along with Crude oil and Gold.

All time highs: APKT, CVX, DTV,
OVTI popped on earnings.
HPQ and WMT dropped on earnings.

New unemployment claims were back down to 391,000! (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Monthly jobs report on Friday -a potential market mover.

Market commentary: Well we did get the pullback I mentioned last week. Now that the 'bears' are all loading up, I expect they will be crushed once again as the market reloads in the coming weeks.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices shot up, closing near $99 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied on Friday, closing near $4.00
-yes it was a buying opportunity (posted last week)
Gold was up, closing near $1409.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $121'23.
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 77.25 -approaching a double bottom??

News:
Stocks: Jobs take center stage
Problem bank ratio at 23-year high
Fourth-Quarter GDP Revised Down to 2.8%
Sales of new homes fall a shocking 11.2%
Foreclosures make up 26% of home sales
Libyan chaos stirs global panic over oil supplies

Stock Market Blog -Feb 20th

2011-02-20T17:06:00.006-05:00

The market rally continues. 'The trend is your friend' -so let's see if it continues. A pullback is way overdue in this market, so I'd be careful. The MDY continues to hit all time highs (Mid-caps), easily outperforming the Large-caps.

ARUN and DELL popped this week! Solar stocks popped too.
This was a strong week for the DOW stocks as well.

All time highs:

New unemployment claims were back up to 410,000! (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Markets are CLOSED on Monday.
Companies reporting earnings include: HD, HPQ, LOW, TGT, WMT,

Market commentary: The rally continued this week, right into options expiration Friday. Next week we could see a pullback.

AAPL sold off on Thursday and Friday -keep your eye on this one. PCLN and NFLX sold off too, as did the auto parts companies (AAP, AZO, ORLY...).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dipped, then recovered, closing near $86.20 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing near $3.85 -buying opportunity??
Gold was up, closing around $1388.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $119'07.
The US Dollar was down, closing near 77.66.
Hyper-caffeinated coffee prices hit 14-year high

Silver rocketed higher this week.

News:
U.S. Stocks Gain a Third Week as S&P 500 Rises to 32-Month High
Bulls on parade. Is rally getting ridiculous?
Wall Street looking to Wal-Mart
Sector Snap: retailers to post earnings next week
Junk bonds: Still a good bet

Green Mountain Commands Most Expensive U.S. Valuation: Real M&A
Intel to Build $5 Billion Arizona Chip Plant, Hire 4,000 in U.S. This Year
Borders files Chapter 11, to close 200 stores

Stock Market Blog -Feb 13th

2011-02-12T13:46:00.005-05:00

Another week, another rally. This market has been in rally mode since last September, with only a small blip down in November (chart below). The mid-cap index continues to hit all time highs (MDY)! Also, lots of stocks hitting all time highs this week...

Earnings pops: DIS, JDSU, CMG, PNRA, TM, TTM

CSCO dropped after reporting earnings -also EXPE.

New all time highs: AAPL, BIDU, CAT, CMG, CLX, COST, DIS, EL, EMR, GMCR, ILMN, INTU, IWO, LULU, NFLX, OXY, RAX, ROST, TJX, UTX, XRT (retailers!)

New all time lows: QID, SDS, BGZ, TZA, etc -all the inverse index ETFs!

New unemployment claims dropped under the 400k level to 383,000! (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Options expiration on Friday!
Also, earnings reports are starting to wind down. Companies reporting include:

Mon:
Tue: DELL
Wed: DE, NTAP, NVDA
Thu: ABX
Fri: CHK
Market commentary: The rally continues, with lots of options traders 'short' the market going in to expiration week. We could see more short covering again, driving the market even higher!

Could this be keeping the SPY up??

IWM is approaching the pre-crash high of 2007! QQQQ took out that high at the beginning of the year; likewise for the MDY, which continues to hit all time highs.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $87.60 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing just under $4.00.
Gold was up, closing around $1363.
The 30 year Bond stabilized, closing near $118'13.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 78.5.

Copper, Cotton, and Sugar prices continue to escalate!

News:
A new high for the stock market?
How High (or Low) Could the Stock Market Go?
Apple's Mini 'Flash Crash' Today
Cramer: 20 Must-Watch Earnings Next Week
IMF calls for dollar alternative
Our dollar, China's $2 trillion problem
Good news. Yield ahead!
5 Ominous Signs the Bond Bubble Is Breaking

JDS-Who? The return of hot tech stocks
Amazon and EMC have their heads in the clouds
Nokia unveils Microsoft partnership
Corn’s rally feeds a ‘global food fight’
Indian stocks may see some relief
China raises rates to battle stubbornly high inflation

Stock Market Blog -Feb 6th

2011-02-06T16:41:00.003-05:00

The market recovered from the previous week's drop, with the DOW closing above 12,000 and the S&P500 over 1300. The QQQQ and IWM seem to have hit a ceiling, maybe.

The monthly jobs report showed a miniscule increase in jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 9%. Market reaction was muted.

New all time highs:
IBM, CAT, UTX (DOW stocks), MDY (mid-caps)
CY, DLM, GMCR, LULU, NFLX, PETM, RAX, ROST, TJX, SINA,

New unemployment claims dropped to 415,000! (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week we get more earnings reports, to include:

Mon:
Tue: TM, DIS
Wed: KO, CSCO
Thu:
Fri:

Market commentary: We saw a nice rally this week as earnings continue to come in. It's anyone's guess as to when this market might slow down! Bonds took a tumble this week. We continue to be very overbought, with divergence seen in both the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell Small-caps (RSI indicator).

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $89 per barrel.
Natural Gas was unchanged, closing near $4.30.
Gold was up, closing around $1348.
The 30 year Bond saw a huge drop! ...closing near $117'28.
The US Dollar was up, closing just over 78.

Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Cotton were all up as well!
Surging prices lift cotton-futures ETN

News:
Stocks Turn Higher As Leaders Perk Up
What’s after Dow 12,000 and S&P 1,300?
Unemployment rate plunges, while job growth is weak. Huh?
Dollar rallies after ECB’s Trichet speaks
Louis Navellier's Market-Beating Stock Picks

Fed Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Surpass China's
CBO: U.S. budget deficit to hit $1.5 trillion
5 ETFs To Watch As China Grows
China's love affair with Apple

Stock Market Blog -Jan 30th

2011-01-30T08:51:00.007-05:00

The market dropped on Friday, with increased volume, triggered maybe by the unrest in Egypt.
AMZN, F, PMCS, and MWW sold off after reporting earnings.

New unemployment claims were up to 454,000! (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week we get more earnings reports, to include:

Mon: BIDU
Tue:
Wed:
Thu:
Fri:

Market commentary: The market took a tumble on Friday, and we could see a continuation to the down-side, just based on an overdue correction.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices spiked on Friday, closing just under $90 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.30.
Gold dropped, closing around $1339.
The 30 year Bond is still in a range, closing near $121.
The US Dollar was little changed, closing around 78.30.

News:
U.S. Markets Hit With Sharp Declines on Earnings, Middle East Turmoil
U.S. Stocks Sell Off On Egypt And Ford, Amazon Earnings
Bond Fund Outflow Surged Last Month

Stock Market Blog -Jan 23rd

2011-01-21T17:15:00.007-05:00

The market began to show some signs of weakness this week as some of the high fliers lost some ground (AAPL, AMZN, FFIV, GOOG, CREE, CRM, etc.).

IBM on the other hand continued to hit all time highs, and ORCL is hitting highs not seen in 10 years. ISRG popped on earnings; also GE.

Gold and Silver dropped this week too, while Bonds have been in a trading range for the past month.

The Year's Best Stocks (2010)

Meanwhile, the Small Caps and the Nasdaq 100 are showing some weakness...

New unemployment claims dropped to 404,000! (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week we get lots of earnings reports, to include:

Mon: AXP, HAL, MCD, TXN, VMW
Tue: DD, JNJ, MMM, TRV, JNPR, YHOO, VZ
Wed: BA, COP, NFLX
Thu: T, CAT, MO, AMZN, MSFT, POT
Fri: CVX, F

Market commentary: Earnings reports will continue to drive the market next week. So far, we have seen some of the high fliers losing ground, and the market starting to weaken. If I were to pick a direction, it would be to the down side.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were lower, closing around $89 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.75.
Gold saw a large drop, closing around $1341.
The 30 year Bond dropped a bit, closing near $120.
The US Dollar index dropped, closing around 78.25.

News:
U.S. Stocks Decline, S&P 500 Ends Longest Weekly Winning Streak Since 2007
Economy Probably Sped Up as U.S. Consumer Spending Rose Most in Four Years
Bank of America Posts $1.6 Billion Earnings Loss
U.S. debt crosses $14 trillion mark for first time
Gold, silver settle lower on optimism about economy
Rising commodities prices loom

Will the Economic Recovery Slide on $90 Oil?
A Path Is Sought for States to Escape Their Debt Burdens
Facebook raises $1.5 billion
Big tech is beautiful
There Are No Pros in Financial Planning

Stock Market Blog -Jan 16th

2011-01-15T14:27:00.006-05:00

The market continued to power-up this week, with Energy and Financials leading the way again. Oil prices were back over the $90 level, while Gold saw some more losses. Bonds were mostly unchanged.

New all time highs: APC, AAPL, AMZN, CY, CSX, FFIV, IBM, RAX, SINA, TCK, PCLN
...mostly 'tech' -it's 1999 again!

Also: MDY Mid-cap ETF! interesting...

New all time lows: QID, SDS, TZA (same story -all the inverse index ETFs!)

New unemployment claims rose again, this time to 445,000! (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week kicks off earnings season, Big week -earnings and option expiration.

Market commentary: Most likely we'll see the market begin to react to earnings reports next week. I still maintain that there is more risk in being 'long' at this level. The market has rallied almost non-stop since September. Bond prices may be seeing a bottom in this area too, while the US Dollar might be seeing a short term double top.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were slightly lower, closing around $88 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up then down, closing unchanged near $4.40.
Gold dropped, closing around $1370.
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $121.
The US Dollar index rallied, closing around 81.40.

News:
U.S. stocks post seventh week of gains
Gas prices head for $4 a gallon