Stock Market Blog -Feb 12th

The market rallied again this week, but on Friday showed the first sign of some weakness (the VIX spiked this week too). Earnings season is now winding down, and the market could start to take a break from this huge rally. If it does, we'll see the Bonds rally once more.

New all time highs: AAPL, ALXN, BWLD, COH, DKS, PAA SBH, V
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!
Pops & Drops: 

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports  
BIDU, GM, NVDA, NTAP  report earnings next week.

Market Commentary

 The market is ready for a pullback, and with Options expiration this week, we could see that pullback happen soon. AAPL is about to take out the $500 price level too, but is a bit bit stretched at this point. We'll probably see the S&P 500 finally take out the May 2011 highs before a meaningful pullback occurs (the DOW and the NASDAQ have already taken it out). The Russell 2000 Small Cap is the weakest of the indexes.


This week's charts:
S&P 500 -ready to take out the 2011 high

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing near $98.67
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $2.48
Gold dropped, closing near $1725
The 30 year Bond futures was mostly unchanged, closing near $142.78
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.23

NEWS:
Wall St Week Ahead: Bulls will not be tamed by weak earnings
Apple Jumps, Is It Time To Bail? 
U.S. banks agree to $25 billion in homeowner help

Stock Market Blog -Feb 5th

The market continued to rally, with a big jump on Friday after a positive surprise in the jobs report. The NASDAQ 100 is now well over the 2008 highs (pre-financial crisis), though the other indexes still have a lot of catching up to do. Bonds remain at an elevated level.

New all time highs: AAPL, ABV, COH, FAST, FISV, INTU, MA, NKE, RAX, SWI, V, YUM , WYN
All time lows:  FAZ, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!

Pops & Drops:  The Financials popped this week.
Also COCO, GMCR, GIL, ISRG, STX, SWI, MA, & V

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports   Earnings reports from the following companies:

Mon: YUM
Tue:  DIS, KO, BWLD, PNRA
Wed: CSCO, WFM
Thu: 
Fri: 

Market Commentary

In spite of the seemingly non-stop rally from Dec 19th, the market continues to power higher. Of course, I'm still looking for a pullback at some point. The longer term trend seems to indicate that the market wants to catch up to the 2008 highs (the Nasdaq 100 has already passed it by a huge amount) -that means DOW 14000! As earnings season winds down, we could see buying start to slow down.

This week's charts:
XLF -Financials recovering
XLB -Basic Materials recovering
NASDAQ -over the 2008 high
SPG -commercial real estate! (so much for the crash)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down, closing near $97.84
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.50
Gold rallied again, closing near $1740
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $142.41
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.06

NEWS:
Dow Logs Highest Close Since May 2008
Dow at 4-year high, Nasdaq hits 11-year high
U.S. GAINS 243,000 JOBS
Unusual Volume Leaders: Gilead Sciences Spikes
What Cramer's Watching Next Week

Treasury Considers Going Negative on T-Bills

Stock Market Blog -Jan 29th

The market popped on Wednesday (after the Fed announced that they will keep interest rates low till at least 2014), then gave up most of those gains on Thursday and Friday. Gold also popped, and interestingly enough, Bonds rallied too. Next week we could see a turning point in the stock rally.

New all time highs:
All time lows:  TZA ZSL

Pops & Drops:
AAPL popped on earnings. EMC, NFLX, and JCP also popped.
GLD popped after the Fed announcement to keep interest rates low.

RVBD dropped on earnings.

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports   Next Friday we get the monthly Jobs report -a potential market mover.
Also, earnings reports from the following companies:

Mon: BIDU
Tue:  AMZN PFE UPS XOM
Wed: CMG MRO QCOM
Thu:  GMCR IP MA MRK
Fri: 

Market Commentary

The market settled mostly unchanged for the week, and looks tired up at these lofty levels from the December 19th low. I'm still looking for a pullback.

Bonds have been up this week too, as stocks remained flat. Earnings will continue to drive the market this week, along with news out of Europe. Longer term though, I'm bullish on the market for now, and looking to buy any pullback.

This week's charts:
AAPL  -largest market cap stock in the universe!
QQQ -ready to pull back yet?
SBUX -flying high


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly flat, closing near $99.56
Natural Gas finally rallied, closing near $2.77
Gold rallied again, closing near $1732
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $143.44
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 79.01

NEWS:
Dow Ends Lower; S&P, Nasdaq Gain for 4th Week
GDP comes in light at 2.8%
Fed Signals That a Full Recovery Is Years Away
Apple shares jump after earnings smash estimates
Apple’s Sweatshop Problem: 16 Hour Days, ~70 Cents An Hour
Why Starbucks Will Grow For Years

Facebook: Dead On Arrival For Investors?
Will the jobs report threaten the rally?
Stocks Worth Buying Before Earnings

Stock Market Blog -Jan 22nd

Stocks rallied again this week as we closed out January Option leaps for 2012. Not sure how much longer the rally will hold up though, since we've been in rally mode since Dec 19th. Bonds also fell as stocks rallied. Silver popped up on Friday.

New all time highs: CMG, INTU, MCD, NKE, PNRA, SBUX, TJX, UNP, WYN, YUM

All time lows: UNG, SDS, QID, TZA

Pops & Drops: GOOG dropped $57 on earnings! Also ISRG.
IBM and MSFT popped on earnings. SHLD also popped.

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports    Fed meeting next week, along with more earnings from the following companies:

Mon: HAL
Tue:  EMC, JNJ, MCD, AAPL, YHOO
Wed: COP
Thu: CAT, MMM, SBUX
Fri:  CVX, F, PG

Market Commentary

The rally continued into options expiration week, despite disappointing earnings from a few companies. The indexes are overextended at this level though, so expect a pullback; maybe the Fed will be the catalyst, maybe Europe. I would hesitate to put on any 'new' long positions here, and would wait for a pullback instead. AAPL reports earnings on Tuesday and could have a positive impact on the NASDAQ if the stock rallies.

This week's charts:
SPY -overextended (RSI over 80)
QQQ -at the top of the 2011 range (5th time!)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.33
Natural Gas plummeted, again, closing near $2.34
Gold rallied, closing near $1664
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.88
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 80.41

NEWS:
Stocks Post Third Weekly Gain of the Year
F5, Monster, Madden Act Well; Google, Intuitive Fall
Stocks to watch Monday: RIM, Apache, TransDigm
Hot iPhone Sales To Fuel Apple's Q1 Report
Fed Meeting Key in Coming Week
Key Earnings Reports Next Week
A Deeper Dive Into The Whopping Surge Behind Sears’ Stock

Iran oil to be sanctioned by Europe Monday

Stock Market Blog -Jan 15th

The market finally pulled back this Friday, after more bad news on the European financial situation, and a rise in weekly US unemployment claims.

New all time highs: CMG, FAST, HUM, NUAN, PETM, PNRA, ROST, SBUX, SLXP, TSCO, YUM
All time lows: UNG

Pops & Drops:
Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports    Markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. Don't forget Friday is Options Expiration (leaps too).

Earnings season begins, with the following companies reporting (financials & tech):
Mon: (holiday)
Tue: C, WFC
Wed: GS
Thu: BAC, MS, AXP, GOOG, INTC, IBM, MSFT, ISRG
Fri: GE

Market Commentary

We did get a pullback as I expected, and the Euro did drop further and spoil the party as I expected! (looks like it wants to go to 120 eventually -see last week's chart). This week it's all about earnings (and the Euro of course), and Options expiration, so we could see a lot of action. Weakness in the banks early in the week could drag the market down a bit. Also a slew of tech companies report earnings on Thursday, right before option expiration. The overall trend is still bullish however. China stocks seem to be coming back to life too, especially solar.

This week's charts:
AZO -all time high
CMG -all time high
ROST -all time high
SBUX-all time high
YUM -all time high
PETM -all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.70
Natural Gas plummeted, closing near $2.67
Gold rallied, closing near $1630
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $145
The US Dollar was up slightly, closing near 81.79

NEWS:
U.S. stocks smacked by downgrade talk
U.S. stocks face lowered earnings bar
S&P downgrades nine euro zone countries
How Amazon ate Sears' lunch

Central Banks Have Us In a Monetary Trap
U.S. Stocks Funds Have Second-Worst Year as Clients Pull Out
Hostess, Maker Of Twinkies, Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

Stock Market Blog -Jan 8th

The market did rally this week as expected, in spite of the rise in the US Dollar, so we have some divergence here. Gold and Oil also rallied. Bonds were weak. We got a good jobs report on Friday, with the unemployment rate coming in at 8.5%.

I'm still looking for more upside in stocks, but we have had a nice rally since Dec 19th so I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback before we rally again.

New all time highs: AAPL, ALXN, AMT, FAST, HUM, ROST, TJX, SBUX, YUM
All time lows: FAZ, UNG

Pops & Drops: BKS, EK dropped.

Next week: Economic reports
AA kicks off earnings reports on Monday after the close.
JPM reports on Friday.

Market Commentary

We could get a pullback this week as we consolidate the gains from the past three weeks. I see this as a buying opportunity. Stocks like AAPL, ISRG, ROST, and SBUX are hitting new all time highs. Earnings season starts in another week and we could see good numbers push the market up  further. The chart technicals support this view.

Of course the Euro could drop further and spoil the party, though the market held up this week as the Euro dropped, so that correlation may be fading.

This week's charts:
Hot stocks
Jobs -scary

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just under $101.56
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.06
Gold rallied, closing near $1616
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $143.03
The US Dollar was up, closing near 81.60

NEWS:
U.S. Stocks Rise as S&P 500 Index Posts Its Second-Best Start Since 2006
U.S. Economy Gains Steam as 200,000 Jobs Are Added
Earnings in spotlight but Europe may steal show

6 stocks set to advance in 2012
Bonds Outperform Equities In 2011
McDonald's Will Outshine Apple In 2012
Oil Posts An All-Time Annual High
The 13 Worst Big Stock Stories Of 2011

Stock Market Blog -Jan 1st

Happy New Year to all.

The market was more or less flat for this holiday week. The first week of January usually brings in new money so we could see the recent rally continue.

The top stock in the S&P500 for 2011 was COG (few people are familiar with the name).
Top sectors were XLU and XLP, and Bonds.
Probably the worst sector was Solar, followed by Financials and Basic Materials.
Big winners this year: MA, V,  ISRG, ROST, TJX, DLTR, BIIB, PRGO, TLT and more...
Big losers this year: AMR, BAC, C, EK, FSLR, NFLX, MWW, ODP, OMX, RIMM

10 best stocks for 2012

New all time highs: ISRG, DUK, PGN
All time lows: UNG (natural gas)

Pops & Drops: SHLD tanked this week!

Next week: Economic reports  Holiday week -4 trading days. Monthly jobs report due on Friday.

Market Commentary

Still looking for an 'ABC' up leg to complete this rally which started around Dec 19th. We could get it next week as we kick off 2012, followed by earnings reports the next week. This year had many ups and downs in the market, finishing right where it started.

In the bigger picture, we could see more downside action in 2012 as the European situation worsens, and the US Dollar strengthens. Does that mean Bonds will rally even more? We'll see!

This week's charts:
2011 winners
2011 losers
10 year Treasury yields lower than 2008!

2011 market performance:

Sectors:

The big picture:

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.83
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.99
Gold dropped, closing near $1566
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $144.81
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.52

NEWS:
U.S. stocks end mixed year with a whimper
Dow's biggest losers and winners (2011)
The year’s best and worst sector funds
The Economy's Not as Bad as You Think
In 2012, something’s gotta give
TREASURIES-US 10-yr yield heads for biggest annual drop since 2008
Sears, Kmart Stores Closing: S&P Puts Retailer On Review For Downgrade

Euro Leaders Aim to Buy Time to Save Currency
Emerging markets take 2011 hit; 2012 may be better
Natural Gas Falls Below $3 for First Time in More Than 2 Years in New York
Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall

Stock Market Blog -Dec 25th MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Santa didn't forget us after all! We got a nice rally this week as we saw bonds drop. With any luck, the rally will continue into the New Year, before we head into earnings season. The ECB provided about $500 billion in low interest money to the Eurozone banks, helping to drive the rally. Third quarter GDP was revised down again, to 1.8%. Basically, the market has been flat for 2011, ending just about where it started.

New all time highs: ED, KOG, MCD, PETM, PM, ROST, TJX, V, XLP
All time lows: SDS, DXD, TZA -leveraged inverse Index ETFS

Pops & Drops: ORCL, BBBY, and RHT dropped after earnings; CRM broke support

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 364,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Holiday week -4 trading days, light volume.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

The SPY did dip back to the 120 level as I mentioned last week, then we got a nice rally. The chart of the SPY could be indicating an 'ABC' pattern which started after Thanksgiving, pulled back to 120, and now could continue up to near the 130 level, finishing off a nice rally. Bonds have dropped nicely too.

This week's charts:
GOOG -going back to $700?
AAPL -moving up
V -nice performer

GPC -nice performer
MCD -nice performer
ROST & TJX -discounters doing well!
RIMM -going to zero??

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just under $99.68
Natural Gas was unchanged, closing near $3.11
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1606
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.24

NEWS:
Santa rally may face test next week
Jobless Claims Drop, but 3rd-Quarter Growth Is Revised Down
Dollar selling likely next week on year-end adjustment
Interbank Markets Are Telling Investors To Sell The Rally ... Again
Paulson Fund Loses 46% in 2011 Through November

My Top 10 Stock Predictions For 2012 And Some Options Plays 
Last U.S. Troops Leave Iraq
U.S. Poised To Retake Status As Net Oil Exporter 
Banks gorge on ECB loans, market cheer short-lived
Automaker Saab files for bankruptcy