Stock Market Update -Dec 27th

Nice rally this week! The market finally broke out of its trading range of the last five weeks. The IWM small-cap ETF moved up to take out its October high as I suggested it might in the previous two posts. The NASDAQ also broke out nicely, along with the Semis, while Bonds took a big tumble.

New all time highs! AAPL, AMZN, IBM (ORCL, PCLN at nine year highs).

New unemployment claims for this week came in lower at 452,000 (chart).
No bank shutdowns this week! (list).
FYI -the debt clock is now over the $12.25 trillion level!


Commodities:
Oil prices moved up strongly, closing the week around $78 per barrel.
Natural Gas was little changed, closing around $5.65.
Gold prices were rangebound, closing around $1104.
The US Dollar index rallied, then pulled back, closing around 78.
Bond prices plunged, closing around 115 on the 30 year!

Next week: Not much as far as events go, except for the government borrowing more money with another big Treasury auction ($118 billion).

Market analysis: We saw a nice run this week in the NASDAQ and the IWM (small caps), though with light volume. I expect the market will continue the rally into January, but we won't really get a good read on the market until after the holidays, and when earnings start rolling in.

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Stock Market Update -Dec 20th

More sideways action in the market this week (5 weeks now!), closing around 1100 on the S&P 500. The dollar was up sharply again, as more credit issues surfaced in Europe. RIMM and ORCL were up on good earnings reports, while PALM was down on a disappointing outlook; FDX was down on earnings as well. The S&P500 components were also rebalanced on Friday. Citi shares sold off after weak pricing of it's secondary share offering, while Visa is breaking out to new highs.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 480,000 (chart).
-under the half million mark, but higher than expected. The latest report shows continuing claims at the 5,186,000 level.
Seven more banks were shutdown this week! (list).
Ugly chart! ZLC

Commodities:
Oil prices recovered a bit, closing the week around $73 per barrel.
Natural Gas continued to rise, closing around $5.75.
Gold prices fell some more, closing around $1110.
The US Dollar index rallied again, closing around 78.
Bond prices saw little net change for the week.

Next week will be a short trading week because of the Christmas holiday, with the markets closing early on Thursday.

Market outlook: The S&P500 is still stuck in a trading range, though I expect it to break out sometime soon -perhaps in early January as earnings reports come out. The small cap IWM could still rally up to the October highs in the meantime. Trading through the end of the year will probably be on light volume. Take some time off! Happy Holidays to all.


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Stock Market Update -Dec 13th

Once again, the markets were stuck in a trading range this week. Retail sales were higher than expected. The US Dollar was up significantly, causing Gold, Oil, and commodity stocks to falter. The Treasury auctions were weak causing long term rates to ratchet up. Also, airline stocks have been up nicely in the last two weeks as oil prices have dropped.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 474,000! (chart).
-again under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
Three more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices saw a huge drop, closing the week around $70 per barrel. Natural Gas was up, closing around $5.20. Gold prices fell some more, closing around $1120. The US Dollar index rallied, closing around 76.50. Bond prices rose, only to drop back down again.


Next week we have the last Fed meeting for the year, the CPI report, and earnings reports from Best Buy, FDX, and RIMM. This is also expiration week, with options and futures contracts expiring on Friday. We could see a volatile week!

Market outloook: In the options market, bears far outnumber the bulls in the market indexes (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, etc.); if you are a contrarian this would be a bullish indicator for the market this week. The market has been stalled for the past few weeks, and in the absence of bad news we could see a Santa Claus rally! The charts also indicate that the market is about to move out of this recent consolidation area. The small cap IWM is the only index that has not taken out the October high, so we could see a nice break-out there, and the S&P500 could maybe take out the 1110 level.

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Stock Market Update -Dec 6th

We saw another week of indecision in the markets. The monthly jobs report on Friday was a big positive surprise coming in at 11,000 job losses (125,000 was expected), with the unemployment rate also falling to 10%.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 457,000! (chart).
-again under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
Six more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to fall again, closing the week around $75 per barrel. Natural Gas also fell, closing around $4.60. Gold hit record prices again this week, before a huge drop on Friday, closing around $1170. The US Dollar index was down, but rose sharply on Friday closing around the 76 level. Bond prices saw a huge drop for the week.

Next week could be a quiet week with no major reports or events.

Market analysis: The market continues to be range-bound for the third week in a row. It's not clear where it is headed next. If the dollar begins to rally as it did on Friday, the market could sell off some more. The energy sector seems to be weakening. Also, AAPL had a big selloff on Friday, and could start to drag the NASDAQ down.

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