Weekly Market Update -Year end 2007

As 2007 draws to a close, I will wrap up with the final post for the year. It's been somewhat of a rocky year in the markets, with 3 significant price dips occurring in February, Jul/Aug, and Oct/Nov.

The major US indexes finished as follows (1 trading day left): DOW +7%, Nasdaq +10%, S&P 500 +4%, and the Russell 2000 -3%, the only loser in the group. The Homebuilders and Financials were were probably the worst performing sectors.

The 10 year Note and the 30 year Bond ended higher, with corresponding lower interest rates.

The US Dollar lost a lot of ground this year, helping to drive up commodity prices. Oil and Gold were up significantly, along with Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans.

Foreign markets fared better than the the US markets, with China, India, and Brazil leading the way -notice that we are at the bottom of the pile! (adjust slider to see the full year).

This was a slow week in the markets due to the Christmas holiday. Lets see what 2008 brings. My predictions -I think we will see more inflation, higher oil and food prices, and another rocky year in the markets as the 'debt' bubble begins to unfold -individuals are mired in debt, and the country is mired in debt. Foreclosures continue to rise, and now credit card defaults are increasing as well. Also, we may see a further drop in the US Dollar, and another good year for Gold -oh, and maybe a recession too.

National Debt Clock

News Stories:
Chinese stock market wraps up stunning, volatile year.
Bankruptcies likely to rise again in 2008
American's credit card defaults seen surging
2008 ETF Predictions

Weekly Market update -Dec22

We finally got some upside movement in the market this week, especially on Friday (Santa Claus rally?) Strong earnings from RIMM and Oracle helped to give the market a boost, along with foreign aid for some of the ailing financial institutions (see news below). Interestingly enough the bank shares didn't really participate in the rally.

The US Dollar continued to gain strength, while Crude Oil and Gold also held their ground. Bonds were up all week until Friday when the stock market rallied -I think we will have this seesaw action in Bonds for a while.

Looking ahead, we could see this rally continue into year end and into the early part of January when earnings season starts again -we will wait to see how that affects the market then.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO EVERYONE!

Market News:
Morgan Stanley Posts Loss, Sells Stake to China
Merrill Lynch said to receive $5 billion investment from Singapore’s Temasek Holdings
Chrysler said to be 'operationally bankrupt'
How Goldman profited from subprime meltdown
U.S. stocks to continue Santa Claus rally next week

Sub-Prime:
Bear Stearns Posts First Loss in 84 Years
European Central Bank Pumps $500 Billion into Banking Systems
Analyst warns Merrill's write-downs may mount
Credit Crisis Hits Top Bond Insurer
Bond insurer defaults threaten big banks

Weekly Market update -Dec 15

We got some excitement in the markets this week -the Fed announced an interest rate cut on Tuesday, and the market tanked! The next day the Fed announced another attempt at a sub-prime/credit fix, and the market took off, then it tanked again! On Thursday and Friday we saw more selling -it was not a good week for the markets (looks like my predictions last week for a weaker market came through!)

Every week it seems we get more news about sub-prime and credit problems; this problem just isn't going away. Citigroup shares continued to fall, along with Washington Mutual, Bank of America, and other financial companies.

The US Dollar rose significantly this week. Interestingly we also saw the price of Crude Oil rise to over $90 again. Bonds continued to fall, reflecting fears of inflation and indicating higher long term interest rates.

Going forward, it seems we are at a crossroads again where the market could rebound from last week's selling and give us a year end rally, or we could see some more selling back down to the August lows again. No good indicators of direction at this point -next week we should have a better idea. Next week is also expiration week for Options & Futures.

Market News:
U.S. Stocks Decline as Fed Fails to Assuage Recession Concern
U.S. stocks seen rocky next week as investment banks report
U.S. Housing Crash Deepens in 2008 After Record Drop
Overview: Central bank action fails to convince

Citigroup Rescues SIVs With $58 Billion Debt Bailout
Money-Market Rates Fail to Respond to Bank Measures
U.S. November Consumer Prices Rise More Than Forecast
Greenspan Says Recession Odds Are `Clearly Rising'
Dollar Rises to 1-Month High Versus Euro, Yen on Inflation, Fed
Energy and agriculture up on robust demand

Weekly Market update -Dec 8

The markets continued to move up this week, although on light trading volume, which would indicate a weak rally. Of course all eyes are on the Fed next week with the expectation of another rate cut. Sub-prime credit concerns still dog this market though, even with the announcement of a new plan by the President this week to help curb foreclosures.

The US Dollar continued to gain strength this week, helped by Canada and Great Britain dropping their interest rates. Also, we could see Oil continue to drop, maybe down to the $80 level.

Longer term, I continue to see a weak market moving forward.

News stories:
Bush Aims to Prolong Expansion With Subprime Freeze
Paulson Mortgage Plan Surfaces Too Late to Stem Housing Slide
Bank of England Cuts Rates, Says Inflation Will Slow
Canada dollar drops after BoC interest rate cut
Big Fed rate cut may spur a rally
Dark clouds gather on Wall Street

Weekly Market update -Dec 1

The market moved up nicely this week, gaining almost 400 points on the DOW, after comments from the Fed indicate another rate cut might be in the works. Lets see if the market can keep going on the upside.

The US Dollar finally started to regain some ground this week, causing Gold to fall below $785 and Oil to drop below $90. Meanwhile, the Housing woes continue.

Next week we may see the uptrend continue in the market, though from a technical perspective the charts seem to indicate a false rally.

News stories:
Hope grows for a half-point cut
Don't look now: Here comes the recession
Citibank Receives Emergency Cash Injection
Desperate Citigroup looks East for cash
Dell Reports Revenue of $15.6 Billion in Q3
Bank stocks: Buyer beware
October foreclosure filings surge
Supply of homes on market at 22-year high
Housing Slump's Third Year to Be `Deepest' Since WWII
Number of Americans on unemployment nears two-year high

Weekly Market Update -Nov 24

No update for this past week -I'm currently out of town for the holidays. Slow week in the market (Thanksgiving). Still expecting the market to re-visit the August lows before rebounding.

Weekly Market update -Nov 17

Another wild week in the markets, with a huge 'up' day on Tuesday, only to sell off most of the gains by Friday, which was also option expiration day. We are getting close to the August 16th lows, so we could start to see a turnaround this week. Not much else going on.

Some of the commodities got hit hard this week, with a big pullback in Gold from about $840 to around $790 (see previous post), and Oil dropping a bit too. The US Dollar finally stopped it's free fall for now.

Bonds still heading higher reflecting a flight to quality, and another cut in interest rates expected from the Fed.

News stories:
Subprime losses could reach $400 billion, analysts say
Dow falls 121 as fear slams financial stocks
Trouble brewing for Starbucks?
NYSE Chief Is Chosen to Lead Merrill Lynch

Weekly Market update -Nov 11

The markets continued to sell off this week (see last week's post); more concerns about the sub-prime fallout (Citigroup reported another $11b write-down on top of the $5.9b previously announced). The short-term market direction got a little clearer this week: down! We are probably going to re-test the August 16th lows (caused by the original sub-prime news).

We also saw some of the large-cap tech stocks begin to fall this week, after Cisco announced their earnings. (GOOG dropped over $80, AAPL dropped over $25, RIMM dropped around $24, and BIDU dropped over $87). Consequently the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) saw a huge drop as well.

The US Dollar sank to fresh new lows again this week. This helped push Oil prices over $98 and Gold to a high of $845. Expect a pullback soon though!

News links:
Tech slump pushes Dow down 550 for week
More problems ahead for Citigroup
When Will the US Dollar Bottom?
Our biggest export: Inflation
Wall Street doesn't want you

Weekly Market Update -Nov 3

We had another roller coaster week in the markets, with the Fed cutting interest rates on Wednesday, a better than expected GDP number, a good monthly Payroll report on Friday, and shakeups in management at Merrill Lynch and Citigroup (Merrill took a write-down last month of about $8.4 billion, and Citi had a $5.9 billion write-down) -busy week! Also, most of the bank stocks tumbled this week. As I mentioned before, the sub-prime and real estate debacle is far from over (foreclosure rates just doubled compared to last year). On the bright side, Google crossed $700, and BIDU crossed $400.

Bottom line is that we still have a market with no clear direction. We did move up past the 1540 level on the S&P 500, then headed back down as predicted (see last week's comment). This week I see the possibility of more downside action coming, given all the bad news.

The US Dollar sank to fresh new lows again this week, with corresponding highs in the Euro, Canadian dollar, and other world currencies. This helped push Oil prices over $95 and Gold over $800. In spite of this, the government insists that we have no inflation. Do you believe the government numbers, or how much you are actually spending every day! I expect we'll get a bounce in the US Dollar soon, before it resumes the downtrend.

Bonds headed higher this week hitting a new high for the year, and reflecting a flight to quality.

India markets on the move too!

News links:
Big Drop in Merrill Stock on Hint of New Troubles
Citigroup Chief Is Set to Exit Amid Billions in Losses
Fresh Credit Worries Grip Markets
Foreclosure Filings Soar in 3Q
Dollar Falls to Record Low Versus Euro on Credit Concern, Fed
Gold closes above $800 at highest level since 1980

Weekly Market Update

After last Friday's selloff in the DOW, we recovered most of the losses this week. MSFT moved up a huge 4.5 points, the biggest move this company has seen in many years! On the flip side, Merrill Lynch reported a huge $8 billion write down for this past quarter due to sub-prime issues. The sub-prime debacle isn't over yet folks.

This coming week we have the Fed meeting. This will probably be the catalyst to confirm whether the market starts a new up trend or down trend; we could also see some action in the US Dollar. Everything is moving up (DOW, Bonds, Oil, Gold, Euro), and this isn't normal; something has to give!

Right now there is no clear sense of direction in the stock market, so be careful. It is right in the middle of what could be an ABC pattern up or down. I suspect we might move up to the 1540 level again on the S&P 500, and then start heading back down.

Meanwhile Oil hit $92 this week, Gold hit a 28 year high, and the US Dollar sank to a new record low.

Reuters Financial Videos

Weekly Market Update

We got some action this week! On the 20 year anniversary of the 1987 crash, we finally broke down with the DOW falling 366 points on Friday. Guess the market didn't like some of the earnings reports this week -more to come next week. Credit problems are still lingering, with the bank stocks reflecting that this week (BAC, C, WM, etc.) See also: 3 Largest Banks Team on Rescue Fund

By the way, for you chart readers out there, nice double top on the S&P 500 at 1580 (see Oct 6th comment). I wouldn't be surprised to see the market keep heading down, with the next target being the August 16th low of around 1380 -watch out below!

GOOG hit $658 this week -now the 10th largest company in the US!

Oil touched $90 per barrel. Bonds are moving back up too (safe haven?) Looks like traders are predicting another rate cut from the Fed this month.

The US Dollar continues to weaken, hitting all time lows this week. The G7 meeting is in progress this weekend too -don't be surprised to see some action in the currency markets next week as a result.

Weekly Market Update

A tale of 2 markets -the DOW and the S&P 500 hit new 'all time highs' this week, while the Nasdaq still has a looong way to go before it gets back up to the 2000 highs! In general though, not much action in the US markets this past week. Quarterly earnings reports start coming in this week and should start moving the market in one direction or the other.

The Chinese stocks are still on fire -here is a look at the Hang Seng index, and the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) for the China market (FXI) -are we in bubble territory?

Also, as the US Dollar drops, Oil gets more expensive; so does Gold. Oil surpassed $84/barrel this week.

Market update

Well we got the much anticipated September payroll number on Friday, and the market liked it. The market was up nicely for the week, with the S&P 500 finally hitting an all time high! We could see a double top here for the S&P 500 (July high), although the Nasdaq already blew past it this week (AAPL, GOOG, and RIMM leading the way). Also this week, Chinese stocks were acting like internet stocks did in 1999!

Starting next week we have Q3 earnings -this will probably determine the market direction over the next month. Meanwhile the bullish trend continues.

Gold fell early in the week, but recovered most of that loss by the end of the week.

Market update

The market was basically flat this week, with no indication of where it wants to go next. I'm still looking for the S&P 500 to reach up for the July high.

The Euro topped 1.42 vs. the US dollar, an all time high, while Gold continued to rise.

Market update Sep 23, 2007

What a week! The Fed dropped interest rates by .50 points on Tuesday, and the DOW rocketed up 336 points the same day.

The US Dollar dropped to a 30+ year low, Gold shot up, and Oil closed over $82/bbl. The financials showed a nice recovery too. In spite of the huge move up in the DOW though, the volume hasn't been very convincing. This was also expiration week for options and futures.

What can we expect in the coming week? The indexes look like they want to re-test the July highs. S&P 500 Chart

30 year Bond yields started moving up also (long term rates going up.)

Market update -Sep 9, 2007

Labor day holiday this week. The DOW dropped 249 points on Friday! Bad payroll number surprises WallStreet.

Market update -Sep 2, 2007

More choppy markets. Looks like the S&P wants to go back up to 1500 again, in spite of many people thinking the opposite! China market breakout also.