Stock Market Update -Dec 28th

More of the same low volume trading in the market this week, with the market drifting somewhat lower. We saw some up-side action in Gold, while Oil is now trading in the 'mid $30' range. The Grains have also been in an up-trend lately (Soybeans, Corn, Wheat).

New and existing home sales for November cratered, while retail sales for the holiday season looked pretty bleak. And lets not forget, more than 500,000 unemployment claims were filed yet again this past week -this has been a weekly occurrence for some time now! Meanwhile, we approach the end of the year with the national debt clock now clocking around $10.685 trillion.


Next week will be the final trading week for 2008, the worst year for the stock market since 1931 - Good Riddance! We will probably see more light-volume trading like last week, along with maybe some tax loss selling. What can we look forward to in 2009? I will make some predictions in the next blog update.

Some of this years winners: Family Dollar Stores (FDO), Amgen (AMGN), Wal-Mart (WMT), McDonalds (MCD), and Inverse ETFS! (like SDS)

Some of this years losers: (basically everything!) Financials (XLF) -most banks and brokers, Retailers (RTH), Emerging markets (EEM), Gold miners (GDX), Commodities, and the major indexes (S&P 500, DOW, Nasdaq).

Unemployment claims highest since '82
Home Sales Tumble Again, Hopes for a Bottom Fade (video)
Fed's Balance Sheet Is Ballooning Fast
Japanese Exports Fall Record 27%
Russia devalues rouble for sixth time, more to come
Where'd the bailout money go? Shhhh, it's a secret
Battered commodities could perk up late in 2009

U.S. stocks turn to final week of 2008
Get Ready for a Lost Decade
Year End Review and Outlook - MarketWatch
The 2008 market will go down in history
Was 2008 the beginning of another Great Depression?
The Coming Hyperinflation?

Stock Market Update -Dec 21st

The market has been stuck in a range for the last two weeks around the 900 level on the S&P 500. Oil prices continue to drop, closing just under $34 per barrel. New unemployment claims surged past 500,000 again this week. The Fed basically dropped interest rates to zero this week, while mortgage rates also dropped significantly.




Next week is the Christmas holiday week, so expect light trading.

The 2008 market will go down in history
FedEx cuts employees' pay, suspends 401(k) payments
Drop in consumer prices is most since 1932
Bush throws lifeline to U.S. automakers
Auto makers to get more than $17 billion in loans
Paulson Seeks Second $350 Billion in Bailout Funds
Euro Makes a Comeback
The Next Big Bubble To Burst: U.S. Treasuries
If Fed mimics BOJ, Treasury yield drop could be big
What's next for America?
Dollar Staggers as U.S. Unleashes Cash Flood, Deficit
Don't destabilize Russia, Putin warns foes
California posts 8.4% jobless rate, third highest in U.S.
California's budget mess gets worse
Outlook Darkens as Recession Deepens

Stock Market Update -Dec 14th

In spite of all the bad news, the market continues to hold up well. The automakers failed to get a bailout package from the government this week. Oil closed higher, so did Gold, and so did many other commodities as the US Dollar fell, following its recent rally. New unemployment claims hit 573,000 this week (a 26 year high), and two more banks were shut down by regulators. People are now investing in Treasury Bills for a zero interest rate return (basically 'paying' the government to hold money for them)!


Next week we have the last Fed meeting for this year; more interest rate cuts are expected to be announced. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will be reporting earnings as well. It is also expiration week for Options & Futures, so we can expect some volatility as we close out the last month and quarter for 2008 for these derivatives. We could see the market continue with the recent rally.

Recession seen worsening, deflation a risk
Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%?
Ex-Nasdaq chairman charged with perpetrating massive fraud
Hedge Funds Face Big Losses in Madoff Case
Bank of America to cut up to 35,000 jobs
Wells Fargo to write down $40 billion in Q4...
GM hires bankruptcy lawyers
Dow's rally may boost stocks next week
Fears rise over possible Ecuador default

8 really, really scary predictions

Stock Market Update -Dec 7th

More encouraging signs in the market as it rallies in the face of bad news. We got really bad manufacturing numbers in the middle of the week -but the market rallied! We saw over 500,000 jobs lost last month, and another 500,000+ new unemployment claims this week. Every week we see over 500,000 new unemployment claims, yet the market is rising! The total number of unemployed is now over 10 million.

The only sliver of good news is that Oil continues to fall, closing near $40 on Friday. All other commodity prices continue to sink as well.

(click to enlarge)

Next week we should get the final word on the bailout for the automakers. The market is showing signs of a small rally here, but with all the volatility, it may not last very long so be careful.

It's official: Recession since Dec. '07
U.S. job losses worst since 1974 as downturn deepens
Economy Loses 533,000 Jobs in November
Record 10% of U.S. homeowners in arrears or foreclosure
Retail sales dropping like a rock
Investor fear drives US Treasury yields to near zero

Tribune prepares for possible bankruptcy filing: WSJ
Price of gas hits lowest point in nearly 5 years
OPEC head: oil production likely to be cut soon
Merrill Lynch Says Oil Could Fall to $25

Stock Market Update -Nov 30th

Sorry, but I missed doing an update this week. We had a huge rally, with the market showing gains every day, following through from the previous Friday. More bad news though on the unemployment front with over 500,000 new unemployment claims again this week. Not a happy thanksgiving for many people.

(click to enlarge)

Here are a couple of news stories:

Bailouts hit $8.5 trillion
Fed adds $800bn to boost borrowing
Citigroup gets massive government bailout
U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall on $600 Billion Fed Plan
A Depression Coming? Not Likely