Stock Market Update -Apr 26th

The six week rally finally slowed down a bit this week as we got a slew of earning reports. Sector performance was mixed (see chart below). Ford shares rallied on their earnings announcement, while GM continues to struggle with a potential bankruptcy filing. American Express shares also rallied. The Materials sector got a boost as the US Dollar sank further -we could expect a further decline in the Dollar. Next week also have over $150 billion in Bonds being brought to market.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and this time four more banks were shut down by regulators (list), along with one Credit Union.

Commodities: Oil prices dipped, then closed back up around $51 per barrel. Gold prices rose to $913 as the US Dollar fell, and as China reported a huge rise in gold reserves. Bonds also fell further this week (resulting in higher interest rates).

Next week the earnings reports continue to roll in, including that of the major oil companies. We get the 1st quarter GDP report on Wednesday, and we also have a Fed meeting. We could also get news on the GM or Chrysler bankruptcy.

Market outlook: The market is poised to break thru the 875 level on the S&P500. So far the reaction to earnings has been mostly positive, so I expect the rally will continue up to the Jan 6th top of around 903, though it could be a bumpy ride getting there.

Six-Week Winning Streak Runs Out of Steam
Microsoft Q3 profit falls 32%
GM To Get Another $2 Billion, Lets Pontiac Brand Die
GM won’t make debt payment, bankruptcy ‘probable’
Freddie Mac CFO found dead
For Freddie And Fannie, Trouble At The Top
Shareholders Be Damned!
Bank Profits Appear Out of Thin Air
Did The Government Force Bank of America To Buy Merrill?

Recession, Far From Over, Already Setting Records
Dire straits for state budgets
A profitable commodity play
China reveals big rise in gold reserves. Holdings soar above 1,000 tons
Why I Fired My Broker

Stock Market Update -Apr 19th

The rally continues (6th week now) led by the Financial companies again, as we await more earnings reports next week. New unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and two more banks were closed by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices are still holding around $50 per barrel, while Gold prices dropped further, closing near $868. The US Dollar index is gaining ground again, while Bonds look like they want to fall further (resulting in higher interest rates).


Next week we get earnings reports from some of the big companies like BAC, AXP, WFC, MS, IBM, MSFT, AAPL, KO, MCD, F, CAT, FCX, and lots more. This will be a big week for earnings, with many companies reporting.

Market outlook: We made it up to the 875 level in the S&P500 that I mentioned last week (see chart above). It's anyones guess as to whether it will now continue straight to the January high of 943, or whether it will pull back first, but I believe that is where we are headed (I think it will pull back first).

The Next Leg up in Financials
U.S. Aims to Release Bank Stress-Test Results May 4
Latest Jobs, Housing Reports Show Recession Isn't Over
General Growth Files Biggest U.S. Property Bankruptcy
Volcker: Recovery will be a 'long slog'
US foreclosures up 24 percent in 1st quarter

Taxing Grandma to Subsidize Goldman Sachs
Wells Fargo’s Profit Looks Too Good to Be True
Currency Illusions and the Gold Price Suppression
Dollar’s Fade Won’t Support Stock Rally
Averting Depression as Consumer in U.S. Fades

Stock Market Update -Apr 12

The rally continues, now 5 weeks in a row, with the Financial sector leading the way again! (see chart below, right). Looks like we might be headed for that January high that I mentioned last week. New unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and two more banks were shut down by regulators.

Commodities: Oil prices are holding around $52 per barrel, while Gold prices continue to lose ground closing near $880.


Next week begins a new earnings season with big names reporting like Citi, Goldman, JP Morgan, GE, J&J, Intel, and Google. In addition there are a number of key economic reports due to be released, and don't forget Options expiration on Friday.

Market outlook: We could see a continuation of the rally up to the 875 level on the S&P500. It all depends on reaction to the earnings reports next week.

Big rally on Wall Street
Is market turning? Stay skeptical
Wells Fargo predicts a $3 billion profit
More Quickly Than It Began, The Banking Crisis Is Over
Government Sachs is in control

U.S. budget deficit triples to $957 billion for year
Now Almost 6 Million In Continuing Jobless Claims
Buyers return to Miami housing as prices plummet
Mall vacancies at a record high in 2009
Economists expect recession to end in September

Stock Market Update -Apr 5th

The market continued its upward trend for the fourth week in a row, in spite of the bad news reported Friday on job losses for March, with the unemployment rate now at 8.5%. New unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again (more than 8 consecutive weeks now, and since last October, more than 500,000 each week). Meanwhile the debt clock on the left races along at a faster pace, now over $11.1 trillion!

The much talked about 'mark to market' rules were relaxed by FASB this week, though it didn't seem to provide much of a boost to the Financial stocks. Of the four major indexes (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P500, Russell 2000), the Russell 2000 is leading the rally (smaller companies). IBM has been the leader for the year in the DOW index.

Commodities: Oil prices are holding above $50 per barrel, Gold prices continue to lose ground, while the US Dollar also lost some ground. Grain prices also rose this week (Corn, Soybeans, Wheat).

Next week kicks off earnings reports for the first quarter. It's also right before Easter and Passover, so it could be a slow week, with the markets being closed on Friday. Market analysis: The current rally could eventually take us up to the Jan 6th high of 943 on the S&P 500, and 9088 on the DOW, with some pullbacks along the way. This week we could see one of those pullbacks, providing a opportunity to add to short term positions -remember however that we are still in a bear market! The short term target on the S&P is around 875, the February high.

News stories:
Stocks rise for fourth straight week; Dow moves back above 8,000
3 Dow Stocks Over Their 200-Day Moving Averages
U.S. Economy: Unemployment Rate Reaches 25-Year High
The Great Recession
Signs of life in California real estate
Why small companies keep shedding jobs

Uncle Sam's Massive Hedge Fund
Congress Approves Obama's $3.6 Trillion Budget
Making Home Affordable program may enable millions to refinance mortgages
Rate on 30-Year Mortage Falls to New Record of 4.78%
More U.S. consumers falling behind on loans