Stock Market Update -Sep 27th

The markets pulled back this week after the Fed meeting on Wednesday (technical chart). I think we could see DOW 10,000 before we get a bigger downturn however, since it is so close to this level. There was a big drop in RIMM shares on Thursday as they announced earnings, showing a big miss in sales (is Apple eating their lunch?). This could be a preview of more to come when earnings season starts up in 2 weeks.

New Unemployment claims for this week were 530,000.
(still over the half million mark every week)
Another bank was shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices dropped this week to close around $66 per barrel, Natural Gas continued to rally, closing around $4.00, and Gold dropped to $990.

The US Dollar in x finally gained a bit of strength, while Bond prices rallied, a reflection of the dip in the stock market. A lot of money has been flowing into bond funds (e.g. LQD)

Next week marks the end of the quarter, and the fiscal year end for many funds, a potential market mover. Another big market mover is the monthly jobs report due on Friday.

Market analysis: We did get the pullback I mentioned last week; not sure if it's over yet though. We could eventually still see that run to DOW 10,000 before a market downturn (if we get one). Note that if the dollar continues to rally, stocks will fall, and gold will fall as well.

Stocks at a tipping point ahead of crucial week
Stocks' rally to be tested by jobs data
The bear market is not over (video)
Corporate insiders continue to increase the pace of their selling
Irrational exuberance in the bond market?

Apple closes out strong fiscal year
The Biggest Government Bailout Is Yet To Come -Itself
Will US repeat mistakes of 1937?
China stocks and funds: Top picks from three advisors

Stock Market Update -Sep 20th

Another week, another rally in the market. Never mind that for yet another week, we see over 1/2 million new unemployment claims again; we are now on month 9 with the same high unemployment numbers! Here is what I said in my Jan 11th post: "We got more bad news from the jobs report on Friday, showing an unemployment rate of 7.2%, a loss of 524,000 jobs in December, and the worst year for job losses since 1945 (2.6 million jobs lost in 2008). " That was back in January and it continues to get worse.

New Unemployment claims for this week were over the half million mark again (545,000).
Two more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices closed around $72 per barrel, Natural Gas rallied a bit to close around $3.75, and Gold closed above $1000 again. The US Dollar index continued to fall, and Bond prices were more or less unchanged.



Next week there is a Fed meeting, though no new announcements are expected. We are approaching the end on the 3rd quarter, so you can probably expect more buying on the part of the mutual fund companies to make their portfolios look good.

Market analysis: The up-trend continues, and at this rate we could see DOW 10,000 soon! We could first see a brief pullback after this recent run, but the overall trend is up.

Wall Street hits 2009 highs, led by materials
Bernanke declares 'recession is very likely over'
As Dow 10,000 looms, a time to worry
State Unemployment Keeps Rising; Three Hit Record Highs
Obama bolsters program that insures home loans
The $4 Trillion Rescue You Should Be Grateful For
The Next Fannie Mae
US wholesale prices soar 1.7 percent in August
The Quiet Grab: China's Recent Commodity Deals

Stock Market Update -Sep 13th

The markets rallied again this week, with the S&P 500 closing at a new high for the year. Interestingly, the DOW closed at 9605 on Friday (9/11 anniversary), the exact same price where it closed on 9/11 eight years ago!

Also of note, if you believe in the 'buy and hold' stock investment philosophy, your investment has returned a big fat ZERO in 8 years; it pays to protect your assets and to exit the market whenever the trend turns negative.

Stocks, bonds, and gold all rallied this week! This isn't normal so I expect one of these to pull back next week.

New Unemployment claims for this week were over the half million mark again (550,000).
Three more banks were shut were down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices closed around $69 per barrel, Natural gas rallied a bit to close around $3.00. Gold finally closed above $1000, a record close. The US Dollar index continued to fall, closing just over 76. Bond prices were up for the week.


Next week we get more economic reports -PPI, CPI, Retail sales, and housing. Friday also marks expiration day for options and futures contracts.

Market analysis: The market continues to rally, though bonds also rallied this week. Normally these trade in opposite directions, so next week we could see stocks or bonds reverse course. Meanwhile the weak dollar continues to support the rally in stocks and in gold.

Is this rally for real?
Insiders sell like there's no tomorrow
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month
Obama imposes tariffs on Chinese tires
Dear Chairman Bernanke -The Chinese send their congratulations.
China Raises the Money-Printing Alarm
Beijing Backs Derivatives Fights

Federal deficit surges to $1.38 trillion through August
The Trade Deficit Threatens Our Recovery
Understanding the Inflation In the Pipeline
The dilemma of the diving dollar
A Year Later, Little Change on Wall St.
Credit Rating Firms Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s And Morgan Stanley Are Running Scared...
WaMu: The forgotten bank failure
In Florida, Vestiges of the Boom
Construction Loans Falter, a Bad Omen for Banks
As an Exotic Mortgage Resets, Payments Skyrocket

Stock Market Update -Sep 6th

The market dipped early in the week, only to regain some strength on Thursday and Friday. The much anticipated monthly jobs report on Friday showed a higher unemployment rate, now at 9.7%, but the market rallied anyway!

New Unemployment claims for the week were just under 600,000 again.
Five more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices tumbled to close around $68 per barrel, while Natural gas continued to fall below $3.00. Gold rallied to close just under the $1000 level at $996, the US Dollar index seems to be stuck around 78, and Bond prices were up for the week, then fell on Friday as the stock market rallied.

Next week there really isn't much on the calendar that might affect the market (Monday is a holiday. Hurray!)

Market analysis: This week might give us a better clue as to whether this market wants to go higher or lower from here -right now there is no clear direction. The rally late in the week was on light volume compared to the huge down volume on Tuesday, which might indicate further weakness ahead.

G-20 Finance Chiefs Vow to Sustain Stimulus Plans, Discuss Exit
China to buy up to $50 billion of first-ever IMF bonds
China: Spreading the Sovereign Wealth to Buy Overseas Commodity Assets
China Is Now A Net SELLER Of U.S. Treasury Notes And Bonds!
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac... A Year Later
A year later, exit from Fannie Mae, Freddie is a perplexing quandary for government
Problem Bank List (Unofficial) Sep 4, 2009
Bond vigilantes fret over Japan

Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, touts high-security vault
Gold Fever Heats Up Precious-Metals Funds
China Urges Citizens to Buy Gold and Silver
FINRA to Raise Leveraged ETF Margin Requirements
DXO Becomes First Victim of CFTC Activity