Stock Market Update -Mar 21st

The market was up again this week, though we saw a drop on Friday, which raises a caution flag. The market has been up almost non-stop since the second week of February, and now that Options and Futures expiration has passed, we could see a break in that rally.

Some new all time highs this week: BIDU, ESRX, MCD, NKE, GMCR, TEVA
PALM shares tanked this week! So did UNG.


New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 457,000.
And seven more banks were shutdown by the FDIC this week! (list).

Next week: Not much in the way of events, except for the pending Health Care Bill, along with a few economic reports. Also, more government borrowing next week to the tune of around $118 billion in Treasuries (stocks down, treasuries up??).

Market commentary: The DOW did catch up to the January highs as I expected, and I believe we will see the market begin to turn around this week, after a solid one month rally. Friday flashed a turnaround signal in all the indexes, so this could turn out to be a short term top. We could also be seeing a double-top here. Likewise for HYG and JNK.

For the brave of heart out there, now may be a time to finally look at some of those inverse ETF trades (SRS, SDS, QID, TZA, etc.). Also, if you anticipate an increase in volatility, the VXX may be a good product to trade now.

Remember however to do your own due diligence, and to always use stops with every trade.

Commodities:
Oil prices were up and down, closing the week just over $80 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped even further, closing around $4.16
Gold prices were both up and down, closing around $1107.
The US Dollar index was up late in the week, closing around 81.
30 year Bond prices were up a bit, closing around $118.

News:
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The Bears Are Dead Wrong
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Euro Collapses, Dollar Jumps, Markets Sleep

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China in Midst of ‘Greatest Bubble in History,’ Rickards Says
Corporate Debt Coming Due May Squeeze Credit

Stock Market Update -Mar 14th

Nice gains again this week, though it didn't feel like it. Perhaps because the DOW is still lagging the other major indexes. Stocks like AAPL continued to rally nicely. Retailers also surged this week.

This is Options and Futures expiration week coming up, as well as the end of the quarter. I expect the market will stay up because there are many shorts to cover! The market has retraced all of its losses from earlier this year.

New all time highs:
APPL, BIDU, MCD, NKE, DNDN, GMCR, PETS, ROST, TJX, V, among others...


New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 462,000.
And four more banks were shutdown by the FDIC this week! (list).

Next week: We have a Fed meeting, a big expiration cycle for Options and Futures on Friday, plus a few economic reports.

Market commentary: The S&P and the NASDAQ did catch up to the Russell 2000 (small caps), taking out the January highs, and I expect we'll see the DOW do the same thing this week. The indexes are all overextended in my opinion, but will remain that way till this expiration cycle is over.

Commodities:
Oil prices were up a bit, closing the week around $81.25 per barrel.
Natural Gas continues to drop, closing around $4.40
Gold prices pulled back, closing around $1100.
The US Dollar index was down, closing just under 80.
30 year Bond prices stayed about the same, closing around $118.50.

News:
It's a Great Time to Hedge Your Portfolio
Shorting US Treasuries could be a mistake
February foreclosures up 6% vs. 2009, off 2% vs. January
The Budget That Devoured America?

Stock Market Update -Mar 7th

We saw nice gains in the market last week, with a big rally on Friday after the payroll report was released. The unemployment rate stayed at 9.7 percent. Everyone was 'short' going in to this report! They got hammered once again, especially in the small caps (see charts below). Sometimes it pays to avoid the herd.


OSIP rocketed up about $20 on a buyout offer.
AAPL also rocketed up to a new all-time high.

Some stocks hitting ALL TIME HIGHS this week:
AAPL, BIDU, DTV, DNDN, ESRX, EW, ISRG, MJN, MIL, TEVA, DLTR, ROST

ETFs hitting new all-time lows. Be careful with holding on to leveraged ETFs!
FAZ, DRV, QID, SDS, SRS, TZA

Indexes getting back up to the January high

New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 469,000.
And four more banks were shutdown by the FDIC this week! (list).

Next week: This might be a quiet week, with a few earnings reports, and some more economic reports.

Market commentary: March marks the anniversary of the market bottom last year, and although we have had a massive 70% rally, we are only 50% of the way back up to the June 2007 highs! We are two weeks away from options expiration, and with many traders short the market, I expect more upside as they run for cover. I also expect the S&P and the DOW to catch up to the Russell 2000 (small caps) and take out the January highs (see index charts above).

Commodities:
Oil prices were up, closing the week around $81.50 per barrel.
Natural Gas continues to drop, closing around $4.60
Gold prices were mostly up, closing around $1135.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 80.4.
30 year Bond prices dropped on Friday as I thought it would, to close just over $118.

News:
Nasdaq at 18-month high
Apple approaches $200 billion
Week Ahead: A Year From Lows, Market Still Doubts Rally
CBO: $10 trillion jump in debt under Obama budget
China's Zhou: Yuan Policy Could Change
Is there anyplace to put your cash?
8 reasons Wall Street loses another 20% in this decade