Stock Market Blog -Nov 28th

This was a slow, directionless week in the market, though we also got a good Unemployment claims number on Wednesday. In commodities, Oil and Natural Gas were up, and so was the US Dollar!

CRM continued to hit all time highs!
Other all time highs: AAP, AZO, APKT, CAT, CMG, DECK, DLM, DLTR, FFIV, NFLX, ROST

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New unemployment claims for the week dropped to 407,000 (chart).
This week, three banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
...Whitney sees 5,000 bank branches closing

Next week: (Economic reports link). The big monthly jobs report will be released on Friday.

Market commentary: Not much action last week, but we could see some movement next week as we approach year end. Of the major indexes, the QQQQ and IWM seem to have a positive bias. The SPY and DIA appear to be consolidating, and could follow the QQQQ and IWM upward. Of course the consolidation could also break to the down side. The long term trend is still to the 'up' side however.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing just under $84 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied again, closing near $4.40.
Gold was up a bit, and closed around $1362.
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $127'17.
The US Dollar index was up again, closing around 80.40.

News:
Stocks end with a bang after jobless claims drop
Too much borrowing puts U.S. at risk: Bair
Irish bailout $112.5 billion

Stock Market Blog -Nov 21st

The market recovered some of its losses after the GM IPO on Wednesday night.

CRM surged on a good earnings report.

New unemployment claims for the week dropped to 439,000 (chart).
This week, three banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Short holiday week -Happy Thanksgiving!
Among companies reporting earnings next week: HPQ

Market commentary: The market dropped, then recovered on the GM IPO hype. There is a good chance that the market continues to move up from here, as it bounced off a support level. If you take long positions, keep your stops in place in case the rally fades back down.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $81.50 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied, closing at $4.15.
Gold dropped, and closed around $1352.
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $127'07.
The US Dollar index was up slightly, closing around 78.60.

News:
Street ekes out weekly gain
GM debut weak, but analysts say that’s good
Municipal Funds Fall Most in Two Years as Bonds Drop, Borrowing Costs Rise
Inflation at lowest level since 1957
Signs that the Economy Is Better Than You Think
Ireland requests tens of billions in loans from EU
After Ireland, spotlight on Portugal, Spain

Stock Market Blog -Nov 14th

This week we saw a drop in the market, giving back all the gains from the prior week. Concerns about China, and weak earnings from CSCO were among the concerns of investors -and of course, the market was very overbought and due for a pullback. My comment from last week "...this rally is very extended right now, so I expect a small pullback".

We saw a huge drop in Gold & Silver on Friday, along with a few other commodities.

New unemployment claims for the week dropped to 435,000 (chart).
This week, three banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). CPI report next week (inflation?).
Also Options expiration!
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

Mon	LOW
Tue	HD, WMT,
Wed	TGT, AMAT, NTAP
Thu	CRM, DELL, MRVL, SHLD,
Fri

Market commentary: The pullback this week was no surprise to most traders. The S&P500 had a non-stop rally from September 1st, closed over the April high, then promptly pulled back!
I don't expect much upside action this week, because of Options expiration on Friday, and the overly bullish sentiment of most investors (until last week anyway). I think we could see some of the popular names pull back even more this week, as the dollar continues to rally.

Commodities (charts): -commodities fell this week!
Oil prices dropped, closing near $85 per barrel.
Natural Gas pulled back, closing at $3.80.
Gold closed above $1400 for the first time ever, then dropped sharply back to $1365.
The 30 year Bond was down (in spite of QE2), closing near $127'30.
The US Dollar index was up (in spite of QE2), closing around 78.

News:
U.S. stocks drop on China rate fears
Intel approves 15% dividend hike
Cisco Delivers Unexpected Pain
GM reports $2B 3Q profit ahead of stock offering
In charts: Jobless claims, China CPI, deficit targets

Dollar pares gains after hitting 1-month high
Fed to Buy $105 Billion of Securities Through December
Ireland Urged to Take Aid by Officials Amid Debt Crisis
Margin boost, other woes hammer Irish bonds

Stock Market Blog -Nov 7th

The market reacted well to the elections, QE2 from the Fed, and a good monthly jobs report (unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6%). The market has been on a non-stop rally since it bottomed for the year back in July. It's likely that we'll see the trend continue to the end of the year, maybe after a small pullback (this rally is very extended right now, so I expect a small pullback).

Silver and Gold also continue to rally (new all time high for Gold), as well as most other commodities (oil, sugar, coffee, cotton, corn, soybeans, copper, to name a few!)

Even the 10 year Bond, and the Dollar were up this week!
Something has to give of course... all asset classes don't normally rally at the same time. Maybe we'll find out which one loses next week.

PETM and XEL hit an all time high this week (among many others).


New unemployment claims for the week were higher, rising to 457,000 (chart).
This week, four banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Market indexes are all now higher than the April high...
April earnings disappointments caused a selloff...
But we've been moving higher since the July earnings reports.

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

Mon	PCLN, PAAS, SLW, RAX, LDK, VVUS
Tue	JASO, GOLD, SOLF
Wed	AAP, DRYS, CSCO
Thu	ANF, NVDA, DIS
Fri	PBR

Market commentary: Well, we got a big news week, and a big rally. The market is saying that it wants to go higher. The S&P500 took out the 1220 level (April high) that I mentioned in last week's post. Longer term I expect more up-side action, though we may get a brief pullback first.

Commodities (charts): -commodities rallied this week!
Oil prices were up, closing near $87 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing just under $4.00.
Gold soared close to $1400, closing around $1397.
The 30 year Bond was down slightly, closing near $130'22.
The US Dollar index was down a bit after the Fed's QE2 announcement, closing around 77.

News:
Stocks end strong week at two-year highs
Federal Reserve to buy $600 billion in bonds
Bernanke: Not trying to increase inflation
Employers Add 151K Jobs
Bank stocks rally on dividend hopes
Starbucks Profit Rises 86% on Higher Store Traffic, Via Sales

Fannie Mae asks for $2.5 billion in new US aid
AIG cleans house; posts $2.4B loss for 3Q
GM to sell over $13 billion of shares

Avoid 'leveraged' ETFs which are in a 'down' trend!
Imagine 'compounding' your losses every day...