Stock Market Blog -Jan 1st

Happy New Year to all.

The market was more or less flat for this holiday week. The first week of January usually brings in new money so we could see the recent rally continue.

The top stock in the S&P500 for 2011 was COG (few people are familiar with the name).
Top sectors were XLU and XLP, and Bonds.
Probably the worst sector was Solar, followed by Financials and Basic Materials.
Big winners this year: MA, V,  ISRG, ROST, TJX, DLTR, BIIB, PRGO, TLT and more...
Big losers this year: AMR, BAC, C, EK, FSLR, NFLX, MWW, ODP, OMX, RIMM

10 best stocks for 2012

New all time highs: ISRG, DUK, PGN
All time lows: UNG (natural gas)

Pops & Drops: SHLD tanked this week!

Next week: Economic reports  Holiday week -4 trading days. Monthly jobs report due on Friday.

Market Commentary

Still looking for an 'ABC' up leg to complete this rally which started around Dec 19th. We could get it next week as we kick off 2012, followed by earnings reports the next week. This year had many ups and downs in the market, finishing right where it started.

In the bigger picture, we could see more downside action in 2012 as the European situation worsens, and the US Dollar strengthens. Does that mean Bonds will rally even more? We'll see!

This week's charts:
2011 winners
2011 losers
10 year Treasury yields lower than 2008!

2011 market performance:

Sectors:

The big picture:

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.83
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.99
Gold dropped, closing near $1566
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $144.81
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.52

NEWS:
U.S. stocks end mixed year with a whimper
Dow's biggest losers and winners (2011)
The year’s best and worst sector funds
The Economy's Not as Bad as You Think
In 2012, something’s gotta give
TREASURIES-US 10-yr yield heads for biggest annual drop since 2008
Sears, Kmart Stores Closing: S&P Puts Retailer On Review For Downgrade

Euro Leaders Aim to Buy Time to Save Currency
Emerging markets take 2011 hit; 2012 may be better
Natural Gas Falls Below $3 for First Time in More Than 2 Years in New York
Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall

Stock Market Blog -Dec 25th MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Santa didn't forget us after all! We got a nice rally this week as we saw bonds drop. With any luck, the rally will continue into the New Year, before we head into earnings season. The ECB provided about $500 billion in low interest money to the Eurozone banks, helping to drive the rally. Third quarter GDP was revised down again, to 1.8%. Basically, the market has been flat for 2011, ending just about where it started.

New all time highs: ED, KOG, MCD, PETM, PM, ROST, TJX, V, XLP
All time lows: SDS, DXD, TZA -leveraged inverse Index ETFS

Pops & Drops: ORCL, BBBY, and RHT dropped after earnings; CRM broke support

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 364,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Holiday week -4 trading days, light volume.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

The SPY did dip back to the 120 level as I mentioned last week, then we got a nice rally. The chart of the SPY could be indicating an 'ABC' pattern which started after Thanksgiving, pulled back to 120, and now could continue up to near the 130 level, finishing off a nice rally. Bonds have dropped nicely too.

This week's charts:
GOOG -going back to $700?
AAPL -moving up
V -nice performer

GPC -nice performer
MCD -nice performer
ROST & TJX -discounters doing well!
RIMM -going to zero??

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just under $99.68
Natural Gas was unchanged, closing near $3.11
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1606
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.24

NEWS:
Santa rally may face test next week
Jobless Claims Drop, but 3rd-Quarter Growth Is Revised Down
Dollar selling likely next week on year-end adjustment
Interbank Markets Are Telling Investors To Sell The Rally ... Again
Paulson Fund Loses 46% in 2011 Through November

My Top 10 Stock Predictions For 2012 And Some Options Plays 
Last U.S. Troops Leave Iraq
U.S. Poised To Retake Status As Net Oil Exporter 
Banks gorge on ECB loans, market cheer short-lived
Automaker Saab files for bankruptcy

Stock Market Blog -Dec 18th

The market dropped this week, with the Nasdaq 100 giving back most of the gains from the huge 1 day rally on Nov 30th.

Gold and Silver tumbled, along with other commodities, and the stock market, as the dollar rallied.

New all time highs: ABV, ED, KMP, PETM
Pops & Drops: RIMM dropped again!

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 366,000 (chart)
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
ORCL and NKE report earnings.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

No Santa Claus rally -so far anyway. The market bounced off resistance and turned down again this week. Again it's hard to tell where it's headed next, with Europe driving most of the action. Maybe now is a good time to take a holiday break -Happy Holidays to all!

(for the die hard traders, we could see more downside action as the other indices fall back to the Nov 30th pre-rally levels (e.g 120 on the SPY) -The Nasdaq 100 is basically there already).

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -Interest rates
SNE -Sony, 25 years -no change!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $94
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.12
Gold tanked! ...closing near $1600
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $145.32
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 80.20

NEWS:
Early rally fades; stock market down for the week
U.S. stocks expected to yield to Europe

3 Wicked Reasons To Buy Mortgage REITs Today
Don't Be Fooled, Gold Will Soar In 2012
Gold to Slip Below $1,500 in Next 3 Months: Poll

How Amazon has proven that iTunes is totally obsolete

Stock Market Blog -Dec 11th

The markets were up slightly this week as Europe managed to push out their crisis to the future once again. Weekly unemployment claims dropped to a 9 month low, while Financials continued to rally.

New all time highs:
ABV, ENB, HANS, IBM, MCD, NKE, QCOR, SWI, ORLN, PGN, ROST, YUM
Pops & Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 381,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
BBY, FDX, RIMM report earnings, and we also have the Federal Reserve meeting.

Market Commentary

The market continued to hold on to its gains from the previous week, which is a good sign. We could see it start working its way above the next resistance level around 1275 on the S&P500 (also near the 200MA). Maybe we'll get a Santa Claus rally -hard to tell at this point. Bonds showed some signs of pulling back this week, which could also be a good sign for stocks.

Why Chipotle Is Going To $400
MercadoLibre: Positioned For E-Commerce Boom

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -earnings

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $99.41
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.32
Gold dropped, closing near $1716.80
The 30 year Bond futures fell a bit, closing near $141.16
The US Dollar was up slightly, closing near 78.63

NEWS:
Stocks Log Second Weekly Gain after EU Summit
U.S. stocks end higher, with Dow up 1.4% on week
Jobless Claims in U.S. at Lowest in Nine Months
300 Billion Reasons To Lighten Up On Risk Next Week

Inflation is still the silent killer
Treasury Should Sell Its GM Stake to GM
Secrets of the Bailout, Now Revealed

Brazil's economic growth stalls in third quarter
World Banks In Cahoots To Save Themselves
European summit: Now it's up to the ECB

Stock Market Blog -Dec 4th

We got a nice rally this week, with some perceived good news from Europe, and from the banking system. The DOW was up 492 points on Wednesday after central banks announced a plan to help banks borrow dollars to stem the Euro crisis; also China lowered reserve requirements for its banks. Bank stocks saw a nice rally (XLF), and international markets rallied almost 10% for the week. This was the best rally in the markets since March 2009, when the markets subsequently rallied for two more years.

We also got a good(?) jobs report on Friday, indicating a lower unemployment rate of 8.6%.
Meanwhile, the debt clock is now over the $15,000,000,000,000 mark!

New all time highs:
AMT, COST, FAST, FTI, GPC, HUM, KOG, MCD, KMR, MA, TJX, PETM, ROST, V
Pops: ZUMZ
Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 400,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally from an oversold condition, as I suggested last week. Now lets see if it holds. I think the rally will continue into the new year, when earnings once again will determine the next move. We are back above the congestion area between 1120 and 1220 on the S&P500. Also we should hear more news out of Europe next week

This week's charts:
AMR -airline in trouble?  << last week's comment! This week: Bankrupt!
MCD -star performer over 10 years!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $100.96
Natural gas was up a bit, closing near $3.58
Gold was up, closing near $1751
The 30 year Bond futures fell, as stocks rallied, closing near $141.81
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 78.73

NEWS:
S&P 500 Gains Most Since March 2009 on Bank Action in Europe, Retail Sales
Stocks Surge for the Week; Best Gain Since 2009
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops To Lowest Level In Well Over Two Years
Bond ETFs: Why It’s Time To Dump U.S. Treasury Bonds; Again!
Congressional Stock Trading Fails the Sniff Test, Should Earn a Ban

J.P. Morgan: Verizon is getting its iPhone reward this quarter
About Apple's incredible shrinking P/E ratio
Euro debt crisis solution on horizon
Europe Enters Critical 10 Days to Save Itself
European Banks: Here's a Loan to Buy Our Loans

Stock Market Blog -Nov 27th

Another bad week in the markets as we saw continued selling every day. The Energy, Financials, and Materials sectors were the hardest hit. According to one headline, this was the worst Thanksgiving week for the S&P 500 since 1932! Oil and Gold dropped as well, though Bonds didn't rally as much as would be expected, considering the drop in stocks.

New all time highs: KMR ...not much in this market!

AMR, NFLX, and RIMM continue to sink lower...
Drops: FMCN

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 393,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
LULU, TIF, and other retailers report earnings next week.
The markets also eagerly await the monthly jobs report is due on Friday.

Market Commentary

Headlines in Europe still dominate, and based on the charts, we could drop back to the early October lows again! With any luck though, we'll get a relief rally. Not much to support any view on market 'direction' from here, other than the fact that we are oversold. Only 'traders' should be in this market until we get some sort of longer term trend going again.


This week's charts:
AMR -airline in trouble?
Gold 10 good years!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $96.77
Natural gas was up a bit, closing near $3.54
Gold dropped again, closing near $1685
The 30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks fell, closing near $143.84
The US Dollar was up as stocks fell, closing near 79.83

NEWS:
S&P 500 Has Worst Thanksgiving Week Since ’32
Stocks: More 'fear, carnage and uncertainty'
Third-quarter growth revised down to 2.0 percent
FDIC: Bank earnings hit highest level in 4 years
Derivatives: The Worlds Biggest Margin Call And How To Play It

Super committee' fails to reach agreement
Could Bank Stress Tests Push US Back Into Recession?
Online sales surge 24% on Black Friday
Italian Bond Yields Doubled in Latest Bond Auction
German Bund Auction is Ominous Sign
S&P cut Belgium rating to AA

Stock Market Blog -Nov 20th

This week saw more selling as the uncertainty in Europe continues. I personally think we are headed for a 2008 style financial crisis in Europe -time will tell. Maybe we'll hold up at this support level on the S&P 500 (though the NASDAQ100 broke support today). Gold pulled back a bit, while Oil rallied to $103 then dropped right back down!

New all time highs: PM,
New all time lows: AMR, UNG,
Drops: ANF, CF, CRM, NTAP, RMBS

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 388,000 (chart)
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season is winding down, with the following companies among those reporting:  HPQ, DE

Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. We await news from the Congressional Super Committee as well.

Market Commentary

We saw more weakness in the market this week, especially in the Nasdaq 100. Maybe some of it can be attributed to Options expiration, and certainly some of it was caused by weakness in the Euro (see chart below). We could get a bounce from all the selling last week, but not sure it will mean much. Europe headlines still dominate. Based on the charts, we should be at a support level here.


This week's charts:

 NASDAQ 100 hitting resistance all year!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices spiked up to $103, then closed around $97.41
Natural gas dropped again, closing near $3.31
Gold dropped, closing near $1726
The 30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks fell, closing near $142.78
The US Dollar was up as stocks fell, closing near 78.25

NEWS:
Stocks: It's all about Italy, Spain and jobs
A Month’s Worth of … Nothing?
What Nasdaq weakness is telling us
DOUBLE STANDARD: Congress Can Legally Trade On Insider Information While Wall Streeters Go To Jail
A snapshot of the global smartphone market as of Oct. 1
7 reasons the Kindle Fire is better than the iPad

Fannie and Freddie Need Another $14 Billion, but Losses May Be Slowing
The weak euro: Look out below!
European bonds signal more pain ahead

Stock Market Blog -Nov 13th

Another choppy week in the markets, but holding above the 1225 support level on the S&P 500 (chart below). News in Europe continue to drive the markets, with Italy being in the headlines now. Next week we get earnings reports from most of the big retailers. Oil closed at $98.99, but hardly made the news!

New all time highs: COG, DUK, MA, AZO/ORLY, QCOR, SWI, TJX
New all time lows: UNG,
Pops: DIS
Drops: GMCR

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 390,000 (chart)
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:  DELL, HD, LOW, TGT, WMT

Market Commentary

We continue to be in a choppy market, but I also continue to think that the bias is to the up-side. However, bad news from Europe and a weak Euro could change that bias. Trade small and nimble till we get a trend going again in this market.

This week's charts:
OPEN -former hi flier
GMCR -former hi flier
AZO -doing well
SBUX -doing well
MCD -doing well
MA -doing well
QCOR -nice performer
Oil -approaching $100

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $98.99
Natural gas dropped, closing near $3.58
Gold was up a bit, closing near $1788
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $140.43
The US Dollar was mostly flat, closing near 77.13

NEWS:
Weekly market recap...
The Nasdaq 100 is set for a monster breakout
3 ways to gauge a scary market
Insider selling on the rise. Bear signal?
Alabama county files biggest municipal bankruptcy
Gold Traders Most Bullish Since 2004 on Debt Crisis

MF Global Terminates Entire Workforce of 1,066 Employees
MF Global Clients: Few Options to Reach Cash
Staring into the abyss (Europe)

Stock Market Blog -Nov 6th

The market dropped, then recovered a bit toward the end of the week. Friday's monthly jobs report showed a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 9%, and an increase of 80,000 jobs, hardly enough to improve the situation! Europe and Greece continue to dominate the financial news.

New all time highs:
COG, DUK, EL, FAST, FIO, HANS, LQD, MA, MCD, ORLY, PNRA, ROST, SBUX, SWI
New all time lows:
Pops: SBUX, QCOM
Drops: CECO, DNDN, OPEN

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 397,000 (chart)
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: PCLN
TUE: CLNE
WED: CSCO, GMCR, GM
THU: DIS, NVDA
FRI:

Market Commentary

We got the pullback I mentioned last week! I'm still looking for the market to work its way higher toward the end of the year, with pullbacks along the way. Keep your eye on the Euro currency, as our stock market trades pretty much in the same direction.

This week's charts:

Sony
Toyota
Japan

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $94.40
Natural gas was mostly flat, closing near $3.91
Gold rallied again, closing near $1753
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $141.10
The US Dollar was up, closing near 77.12

NEWS:
Here’s Why the S&P 500 is Giving Investors Déjà Vu
SPX and NDX Update: Top May Be In as Retracement Rally Hits Targets
Freddie Mac Loses $4.4B in Third Quarter, Requests $6B More From Treasury
MF Global Files for Bankruptcy on Bad Euro Zone Bets
Nothing Has Changed On Wall Street
AMD cuts 10% of its workforce
Groupon IPO: Shares Soar In Public Market Debut

Europe: The worst-case scenarios
Italian bond yields at 'scary' levels

Stock Market Blog -Oct 30th

The DOW rallied almost 400 points on Thursday on news from Europe, and a better than expected US GDP report. Gold and Oil also rallied, while Bonds dropped.

New all time highs:  BIIB, CVX, NUAN, NKE, QCOR, RHT, LQD
New all time lows: QID, SPXU, ERY, FAZ (inverse ETFs for the major indexes, oil, financials)
Drops: AMZN, NFLX

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 402,000 (chart)
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  We get the big jobs report on Friday, and a Fed meeting on Wednesday. Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: HUM
TUE:  PFE, MRO, VLO
WED: MA, WFM
THU: APA, CHK, DUK, DTV
FRI: TM

Market Commentary

We got up past the 1250 level on the S&P500 that I mentioned last week. After such big run, a pullback is expected, then I think we get a resumption of the rally into year end. Europe seems to be driving the markets though, so expect anything! Also watch for the jobs report on Friday.

This week's charts:

October rally!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $92.5
Natural gas was up, closing near $3.93
Gold rallied, closing near $1711
The 30 year Bond futures were down, closing near $136.90
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.25

NEWS:
S&P 500 Extends Best Month Since ’74, Euro Rises
National debt nears size of U.S. economy

Credit-Default Swap Risk Bomb Is Wired to Explode: Mark Buchanan

Stock Market Blog -Oct 23rd

Just as I anticipated last week in my comments, good earnings (and I think Options expiration) gave the market a boost this week (bank earnings were not good though). Next week we get a barrage of more earnings reports. Gold sold off some more this week, while Bonds were flat, and Technology was weak. The European/Greece crisis continues...  Consumer spending was up, a good sign. China growth was down.

AAPL dropped after missing earnings for the first time in many years! AAPL was also 'down' on Friday, while the market had a big rally -not a good sign for Apple.

McDonalds closed at an all time high again!
Other new all time highs:  BBBY, DUK, MCD, NUAN, QCOR,
Drops: CROX, GMCR

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 403,000 (chart)
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: AMGN, CAT, NFLX, TXN
TUE:  AMZN, DD, MMM, UPS
WED: BA, COP, F, S, V
THU:  BMY, MO, PG, XOM
FRI: BIIB, CVX, MRK, NEM

Market Commentary

The current rally may be running out of steam. The catalyst for next week's move will be earnings, and news from Europe. This rally could work its way up to around the 1250 level on the S&P500 before pulling back. Interestingly, the DOW is leading the other indexes right now.

Last week's comment: "Watch for a potential top in IBM" -well, we got it!

This week's charts:
CROX bites the dust!
AAPL may have seen its last high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $87.40
Natural gas is in a trading range, closing near $3.63
Gold dropped, closing near $1636
The 30 year Bond futures were flat, closing near $138.50
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.67

NEWS:
Stocks rise sharply on solid corporate earnings
Hedge Funds Have Fourth-Worst Quarter on Record
U.S. rating likely to be downgraded again: Merrill

Lowe’s will close 20 stores, cut 1,950 jobs...
Average length of unemployment now at 60-year high
October 5th 2011. The day Apple died.

Why the Commodities Selloff May Be Nearing an End
European Union looks to recapitalize banks
EU bank failures will crash Wall Street — again
Obama announces full American military withdrawal from Iraq

Stock Market Blog -Oct 16th

The rally continued this week, making it the best week in over two years, and sending the bears scrambling for cover! We could see more of the same this week, as companies are expected to report good earnings.

GOOG popped $40 after reporting earnings.
Next week is Apple's turn!
New all time highs: AAPL, AMZN, BBBY, DECK, IBM, MAKO, QCOR, SBUX
All time lows: QID (inverse, leveraged 2x Nasdaq 100)

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 404,000 (chart)
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Options expiration on Friday!
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: C, WFC, IBM, HAL
TUE: AAPL, BAC, EMC, GS, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, KO, YHOO
WED: AXP, MO, MS, UTX
THU: FCX, MSFT, T
FRI: GE, HON, MCD, VZ

Market Commentary

Last week's comment: "We could see some follow up to this week's rally, taking the S&P500 to around 1225" -guess what? It closed almost at 1225!

Next week we could see more up-side action if earnings are good, and if there are no surprises from Europe. We also get earnings reports from all the big banks. AAPL could also rally like GOOG did last week, and Friday is options expiration, so I suspect the market will hold up (squeezing all the bears). The Nasdaq broke out above the trading range we have been stuck in since early August, a good sign for the bulls. Watch for a potential top in IBM

This week's charts:
NASDAQ two week rally
 
Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $86.80
Natural gas rallied from a low, closing near $3.70
Gold was up, closing near $1683
The 30 year Bond futures were down gain, closing near $138.40
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.87, and pushing stocks up

NEWS:
Dow, Nasdaq finish ahead for 2011
Stocks: A Critical Showdown Begins On Monday
Stocks brace for earnings deluge
Consumer Sentiment Falls, Expectations at 30-Year Low

Kinder Morgan to Purchase El Paso for Approximately $38 Billion
For Fannie and Freddie, the Party Goes On
Muni meltdown? No. But don't ignore risks.
Raj Rajaratnam, hedge fund billionaire, gets 11-year sentence for insider trading
Occupy Wall Street movement spreads with demonstrations in dozens of cities across the globe

S&P Downgrades Spain's Debt Rating, Citing Weak Growth

Stock Market Blog -Oct 8th

We got a nice rally this week as I expected, as Europe seems to be making some progress on their financial issues. Lets see what the rest of this new quarter will bring. Among the big news this week was the death of Steve Jobs, Apple's founder, and a true innovator. He will be missed for all his unique contributions to the technology world.

New highs: RAI
Drops: AMR, CLWR,
All time lows: UNG

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 401,000 (chart)
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season kicks off again, with the following companies among those reporting:
MON:
TUE: AA
WED: PEP
THU: JPM, GOOG
FRI:

Market Commentary

We could see some follow up to this week's rally, taking the S&P500 to around 1225, which would move it back above the 50 period moving average. Earnings reports starting next week will help determine the next move, along with events in Europe, making it a very news driven week.

This week's charts:
Grains might be set for a rebound after a beating in September (commodities)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $82.98
Natural gas fell again, closing near $3.48
Gold was up a bit closing near $1635
The 30 year Bond futures were down, closing near $141.28
The US Dollar was down, closing near 79.09

NEWS:
Steve Jobs, Apple founder, dies

Stocks lock in weekly gains
Lessons you need to put into action as bear emerges
Average stock bear market lasts more than a year
A Long, Strange Trip: Market Goes Absolutely Nowhere Over 3 Years
The Big Money Is Now Headed for These 3 Safe Havens
Either We Are In For A Lehman Crash Or A Big Rebound
Could Morgan Stanley Go Belly Up?
$1.3 trillion deficit for 2011, CBO says

Wall Street protests grow after unions' endorsement
The Lowest Mortgage Rate ... Ever!
Where to next for oil — $50 or $100?

Fitch downgrades Italian, Spanish debt ratings
Bank of England hits the panic button

Stock Market Blog -Oct 2nd

The market was up, then back down this week. Bad economic news, along with the ongoing situation in Europe continue to keep the market in a range, without any real direction. We closed the 3rd quarter with a big loss in the overall market.

New 52 week highs: DUK, PGN
Drops: AMD, BIDU, FMCN, NFLX,

New unemployment claims were down again, coming in at 391,000 (chart). 
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The monthly jobs report is due on Friday. Also, YUM reports earnings on Tuesday

Market Commentary

No real change in the outlook. Here is last week's comment: "The market dropped, and continues to trade in a range that started in early August. We are now at the bottom of that range again, and could turn back up next week. If we break down instead, we could see continued selling down to the 1050 - 1000 level on the S&P500!"

With any luck, we'll get another short bounce this week to kick off the new quarter, before we start to get earnings reports.

This weeks charts: 


Bank of New York stock back to 2009 crisis level!
RIMM still dropping
BIDU approaching 100!
FXI -Bad year for China

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were down, closing around $78 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was lower, closing near $3.65
Gold was down, closing around $1627. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $143.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 79.50



News:
S&P 500 Declined 14% in 3rd Quarter
Looking for Market Bottom? There May Be Hope Yet
Many markets are deep in bear territory
It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse  ...New Recession Unavoidable (video)
Goldman Sachs: Risks of a Recession are High and Rising

China’s Stocks Sink to April 2009 Low as Quarterly Losses Mount
Jim Chanos Is Still Short Chinese Banks, Property Developers
Investor Fear Over Morgan Stanley Sharpens
Kodak Hires Legal Adviser Amid Talk of Bankruptcy
Amazon Stock Up 3,500 Percent in Past Decade
Apple expected to up the ante with new iPhone

Stock Market Blog -Sep 24th

The Fed spoke, and the markets tanked! We saw a huge drop on Wednesday and Thursday after the Fed meeting and their announcement of a new bond swap program, along with a weak outlook for the economy. In addition Gold and Silver plunged on Friday, catching a lot of people off guard.

New all time highs: GR, AGG, BND, IEF
All time lows: TBT, TAN

Solar stocks continue to be hit hard

NFLX continued to tumble this week!
FDX dropped after reporting earnings.

New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 423,000 (chart). 
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Market Commentary

The market dropped, and continues to trade in a range that started in early August. We are now at the bottom of that range again, and could turn back up next week. If we break down instead, we could see continued selling down to the 1050 - 1000 level on the S&P500!

This weeks charts: 

Gold tanked
TLT top? (Bonds)
NFLX is done!
 
Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices tanked, closing around $78 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was lower, closing near $3.68
Gold tanked, closing around $1650. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $144. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was lower, closing near 76.60

Silver drop on Friday!

News:
Last Stand For The Bulls
About 44 million in U.S. lived below poverty line in 2009, census data show
U.S. poverty rate increases to 1 in 6 people
Silver, Platinum, Copper Fall Out Of Bed
Top Ten Weekly Sell-Offs in Gold and Silver
Uncertainty Plagues Euro Zone as Crisis Rages On

Stock Market Blog -Sep 18th

We got a nice rally this week, which happened to also include 'quarterly' options expiration. We'll see how the rest of the quarter plays out through September 30th. For a new up-trend to be established, a lot of price resistance has to be overcome from the August drop. 

Gold lost some of its luster, while Bonds continue to hold up well.

New all time highs: Amazing AMZN! ATHN, AZO, BBBY, COST, CL, DMND, DG, DLTR, DUK, HANS, JAZZ, KO, MA, NUS, ORLY, SO, TJX -are we really in a bear market? INTC is also showing good strength.


All time lows: STP (Solar stocks have been hit hard lately)


NFLX and RIMM tumbled this week!

New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 428,000 (chart). 
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Fed meeting next week -we may get some kind of market moving announcement. Also, FDX and ORCL report earnings.

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally this week, and it did crush the bears (last week's post)! 
I expect a pullback now, then maybe another push higher, but with high volatility, anything could happen. Stocks are still hitting new all time highs (see above), so this 'bear market' could just be losing some strength. The Nasdaq 100 is already showing 'higher highs' over some recent tops. Watch for any surprise announcement by the Fed next week too!

This weeks charts: 
Amazing Amazon
Gold pulled back
TLT may be reversing? (Bonds)
The Euro recovered a bit

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were higher, closing around $87.96 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was slightly lower, closing near $3.81
Gold dropped, closing around $1815. 
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $139.78. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was lower, closing near 76.60

News:  
Stocks finish their second-best week in a year
Stocks Advance 5.4% for the Week
3 Reasons Why The S&P 500 Index Will Move Higher 
Market Recap: 15 Reasons the Dow Rallied 4.7% and Gold Dipped
U.S. Federal Reserve Steps Up to Buoy Global Financial Markets

Foreclosure filings jump 7% in August from July
Alabama County Nears $3.14 Billion Settlement, Avoids Historic Muni Bankruptcy


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UBS Has $2B Loss; Man Arrested in London
Is Netflix the Next Research in Motion?

RIMM Misses on Lower Sales
Microsoft unveils a radically redesigned Windows 8 
Bank Of America Just Took Armageddon Off The Table 

Central banks to provide dollar liquidity
How a stronger dollar shakes up your portfolio
Euro Will Continue To Fall: US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Gold Best Hedging Options