Stock Market Blog -Jul 31st

This was a bad week in the markets! The debt ceiling issue caused some investor angst, along with lousy GDP numbers on Friday. Things aren't getting better folks, despite what you hear in the media. The market has gone nowhere in the past 7 months (chart below).

Also, Bond prices were up! With the US credit limit at stake, one would have expected bonds to drop -so much for trying to figure out market direction.

Bonds were up this week!

Check out the debt clock on the left side of this blog! It was just in 2008 that the debt clock in Times Square, NY ran out of digits as we hit $10,000,000,000,000 in debt!


New all time highs this week: DECK, GMCR, GLD, IAU, JAZZ
Drops: AEM, IMAX, JNPR, MMM, MRK, STEC, S

New unemployment claims were under 400000, coming in at 398,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The markets anxiously await a final resolution to the debt ceiling issue. Next Friday we also get the much anticipated monthly jobs report.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week to include:
Kraft Foods, Clorox, Mastercard, Priceline, and Pfizer.

Market commentary: So much for breaking out above the May high in the S&P 500! We gave up all the gains from the prior week, with all the indexes taking out the mid-July low. Now we may see the market test the 'lows' before resuming any up-trend.

This weeks charts:
GLD -new all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $95.70 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.15.
Gold was up again, closing at $1631
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $128.19
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 73.90
Currencies rallying against the US dollar: Yen, Swiss, New Zealand!

News:
Stocks: Worst week in 2011
GDP grows slender 1.3% in second quarter
Why we’ll have 10% unemployment soon
Gold hits record high amid debt ceiling 'mud slinging'
Silver May Rebound to Test $100 Level, Citigroup Says

Nearly half of Americans believe members of Congress are corrupt, as debt talks continue
6% Of American Voters Think Congress Is Doing A Good Job
SOROS TO QUIT HEDGE FUND AND RETURN CASH TO INVESTORS
Moody's warns Greek default virtually 100 percent

Stock Market Blog -Jul 24th

The market rallied and took back all of the losses from the prior week, with Technology, Energy, and Financials leading the way! News of another Greece bailout, along with good earnings reports (like AAPL) helped move the markets up.

Interestingly, the Nasdaq 100 has now surpassed the high of 2007, just before the financial crisis took the markets down.

New all time highs: AAPL, CLX, GLD, IAU, FOSL, JAZZ (same as last week!)
Also: IBM, ISRG, KO, MCD, PM
Earnings pop: AAPL, AMD, IBM, KO, MCD, MS
New all time lows: PSQ, DXD (inverse 'leveraged' Nasdaq 100 and the DOW)

New unemployment claims were up again, this time to 418,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Reports include Q2 GDP on Friday.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week:
Mon -BIDU, NFLX, TXN
Tue -BIIB, BP, CMI, F, MMM, AMZN GILD, JNPR
Wed -BA, COP, GMCR, V
Thu -XOM, SBUX
Fri -MRK,

Market commentary: Earnings will continue to move the markets next week as we get reports from some of the big oil companies, and some more DOW stocks. If we can break out above the May high in the S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000, that could bode well for the markets. The NASDAQ 100 has already taken out that high. The S&P 500 is forming a nice inverted head & shoulders bullish pattern.

From my blog post last week...
"On the optimistic side, we could be forming an ABC pattern from the low in late June, with the next leg being bullish after this recent pullback."

Here is what the market actually did this week (nice ABC pattern!):


This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -maybe an ABC pattern forming
KO -new all time high
MCD -new all time high
PSQ -new all time low -be careful with leveraged ETFs!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $99.80 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.40.
Gold was up slightly, closing at $1600 for the first time ever; silver closed over $40
The 30 year Bond was down a bit, closing near $125.88.
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 74.46

News:
Stocks end week solidly higher
Stocks: Big week ahead
Debt ceiling: Now what?
Apple’s on a roll; now comes the hard part
BofA to give away houses
Citi and Morgan Stanley Borrowed Over $2 Trillion From Fed
American Airlines Orders 460 Narrowbody Aircraft
Borders Bookstore Will Eliminate 11,000 Jobs, Close 400 Remaining Stores
U.S. lost $14B on auto bailout... Excellent!

Day Traders' Switch to Currency Speculation
Gold to Fall Below $1320 in Second Half of 2011
Petrobras unveils $225 billion investment plan
China to Wall Street: The Side-Door Shuffle
Ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn had sex with three women...

Stock Market Blog -Jul 17th

GOOG stock rallied by $70 on Friday after reporting great earnings! The market however was down for the week. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling, European financial difficulties, the end of the Fed's QE2 program, and a lack of jobs continue to weigh on the market. The Financial sector led the way down this week.


New all time highs: AAPL, CLX, GLD, IAU, FOSL, JAZZ
Gold hit an all time high again!

New unemployment claims dropped to 405,000 (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Earnings reports continue to come in next week:
Mon -IBM
Tue -GS, KO, BAC, WFC, JNJ, AAPL, CMG, ISRG, VMW, YHOO
Wed -BIDU, MO, UTX, AXP, INTC
Thu -T,F, AMD, FCX, MSFT, DECK
Fri -CAT, GE, MCD, VZ

Market commentary: We lost some ground last week as the Fed didn't light any more fires under the economy. The market will primarily be driven by the slew of earnings releases due next week, with lots of anxiety about AAPL, especially after the blowout numbers we got from GOOG this week. AAPL could go either way in my opinion -they have some challenges ahead of them; remember it's not about whether they report great numbers, but rather how the market reacts to those numbers.

The overall market has been in a trendless, trading range since February, the most difficult type of market to trade. On the optimistic side, we could be forming an ABC pattern from the low in late June, with the next leg being bullish after this recent pullback.


Bonds may be doing a double top here...


This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -maybe an ABC pattern forming
GOOG -moonshot to $600!
AAPL -whats next? double top?
GLD -all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $97.20 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.55.
Gold was up, closing at an all time high of $1590.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $126.
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 75.40

News:
Stocks unsettled by debt uncertainty
Stock Market: There Are Striking Similarities To Last Years Correction
Google+ grows to 10 million users
Gold Stocks to Outsparkle Gold in Post-QE2 World
Trading Of Over The Counter Gold And Silver To Be Illegal Beginning July 15
Short sale fraud plagues the housing market

The Swiss Can Barely Afford Their Currency
Italy and the euro on the edge

Stock Market Blog -Jul 10th

The market drifted up some more this week, only to drop on Friday after a very disappointing jobs report. Unemployment is up again, coming in at 9.2%.

Also, the US Dollar looks like it wants to start an up-trend, which could mean more downside action in stocks.

New all time highs: AMZN, DTV, GMCR, GLNG, NFLX, XLY


New unemployment claims dropped to 418,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings reports start coming in. Also, Options expiration on Friday!!

Eanings reports:
Mon -AA
Tue -
Wed -YUM
Thu -GOOG, JPM
Fri -C

Market commentary: We are approaching the May top again, so be careful. Earnings will be driving market direction in the coming weeks. If we are able to break out above the May high, we could see a nice rally, otherwise we could be stuck in a trading range near 1300 on the S&P500.

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -still approaching the May top
DTV -all time high
NFLX -all time high
XLY -all time high (Consumer discretionary!)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing around $96.20 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.20.
Gold was up, closing near $1541.
The 30 year Bond jumped on Friday, closing near $125.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 75.50

News:
Stocks end lower on weak jobs growth
Unemployment rose to 9.2 percent as hiring stalls
Hiring weak in June, with only 18,000 jobs created
Earnings growth cooled in second quarter
Transport stocks: The little engine that can't
'Cold Summer' for Markets as Rally Hits a Jobs Wall
FHA gives jobless homeowners one-year break

China June Inflation at 3-Year High; Revives Rate Debate
Go big on the debt ceiling
ECB raises interest rates, hints at more increases
The next, worse financial crisis
How nations go bankrupt, one sliver at a time

There is Nothing to Fear but the TSA Itself

Stock Market Update -July 3rd

We got a huge rally this week, with big gains every day wiping out most of the prior losses for the month. This was the best one week rally in 2 years. 'Short covering' probably added fuel to push the rally higher, along with some temporary relief from the situation in Greece.

We'll have to see if it turns into a sustained up-trend. Of course, as stocks rallied, the US Dollar was down, and the Euro rallied; Bonds were also down as stocks rose.

New all time highs: ACN, AMZN, AVGO, BBBY, BIIB, CMG, COH, DRI, DTV, IBM, MCD, SBUX, SODA, TIF, XRT, UTX, YUM


New unemployment claims were mostly unchanged at 428,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). 4 day trading week. Happy 4th of July!
We get the much anticipated monthly Jobs report on Friday morning.

Market commentary: The market rallied nicely off support this week. We're seeing stocks hitting new all time highs again (see above). This rally could continue further if we get good earnings reports a week from now!

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -approaching the May top
XLK -Technology -nice rally off the bottom- like most stocks
TLT -Gov bonds -dropped! inverse relationship to stocks -was that the top!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing around $95.00 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged closing near $4.30.
Gold tumbled, in spite of the dollar dropping, closing near $1480.
The 30 year Bond tumbled as stocks rose, closing near $122.68.
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 75.45.

News:
Earnings: The market's bright spot
Best-performing stocks of 2011
Bank of America in $8.5-billion mortgage settlement
Bank of America Slays Countrywide Beast
Minnesota government shuts down

Homeowners Get Break On Mortgage—Without Asking
Looming Loss of Federal Incentives Darkens Future of Solar Power Stocks
It Looks Like The Bond Rally Is Over (TBF, TLT)