Stock Market Blog -Oct 30th

The DOW rallied almost 400 points on Thursday on news from Europe, and a better than expected US GDP report. Gold and Oil also rallied, while Bonds dropped.

New all time highs:  BIIB, CVX, NUAN, NKE, QCOR, RHT, LQD
New all time lows: QID, SPXU, ERY, FAZ (inverse ETFs for the major indexes, oil, financials)
Drops: AMZN, NFLX

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 402,000 (chart)
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  We get the big jobs report on Friday, and a Fed meeting on Wednesday. Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: HUM
TUE:  PFE, MRO, VLO
WED: MA, WFM
THU: APA, CHK, DUK, DTV
FRI: TM

Market Commentary

We got up past the 1250 level on the S&P500 that I mentioned last week. After such big run, a pullback is expected, then I think we get a resumption of the rally into year end. Europe seems to be driving the markets though, so expect anything! Also watch for the jobs report on Friday.

This week's charts:

October rally!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $92.5
Natural gas was up, closing near $3.93
Gold rallied, closing near $1711
The 30 year Bond futures were down, closing near $136.90
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.25

NEWS:
S&P 500 Extends Best Month Since ’74, Euro Rises
National debt nears size of U.S. economy

Credit-Default Swap Risk Bomb Is Wired to Explode: Mark Buchanan

Stock Market Blog -Oct 23rd

Just as I anticipated last week in my comments, good earnings (and I think Options expiration) gave the market a boost this week (bank earnings were not good though). Next week we get a barrage of more earnings reports. Gold sold off some more this week, while Bonds were flat, and Technology was weak. The European/Greece crisis continues...  Consumer spending was up, a good sign. China growth was down.

AAPL dropped after missing earnings for the first time in many years! AAPL was also 'down' on Friday, while the market had a big rally -not a good sign for Apple.

McDonalds closed at an all time high again!
Other new all time highs:  BBBY, DUK, MCD, NUAN, QCOR,
Drops: CROX, GMCR

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 403,000 (chart)
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: AMGN, CAT, NFLX, TXN
TUE:  AMZN, DD, MMM, UPS
WED: BA, COP, F, S, V
THU:  BMY, MO, PG, XOM
FRI: BIIB, CVX, MRK, NEM

Market Commentary

The current rally may be running out of steam. The catalyst for next week's move will be earnings, and news from Europe. This rally could work its way up to around the 1250 level on the S&P500 before pulling back. Interestingly, the DOW is leading the other indexes right now.

Last week's comment: "Watch for a potential top in IBM" -well, we got it!

This week's charts:
CROX bites the dust!
AAPL may have seen its last high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $87.40
Natural gas is in a trading range, closing near $3.63
Gold dropped, closing near $1636
The 30 year Bond futures were flat, closing near $138.50
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.67

NEWS:
Stocks rise sharply on solid corporate earnings
Hedge Funds Have Fourth-Worst Quarter on Record
U.S. rating likely to be downgraded again: Merrill

Lowe’s will close 20 stores, cut 1,950 jobs...
Average length of unemployment now at 60-year high
October 5th 2011. The day Apple died.

Why the Commodities Selloff May Be Nearing an End
European Union looks to recapitalize banks
EU bank failures will crash Wall Street — again
Obama announces full American military withdrawal from Iraq

Stock Market Blog -Oct 16th

The rally continued this week, making it the best week in over two years, and sending the bears scrambling for cover! We could see more of the same this week, as companies are expected to report good earnings.

GOOG popped $40 after reporting earnings.
Next week is Apple's turn!
New all time highs: AAPL, AMZN, BBBY, DECK, IBM, MAKO, QCOR, SBUX
All time lows: QID (inverse, leveraged 2x Nasdaq 100)

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 404,000 (chart)
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Options expiration on Friday!
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: C, WFC, IBM, HAL
TUE: AAPL, BAC, EMC, GS, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, KO, YHOO
WED: AXP, MO, MS, UTX
THU: FCX, MSFT, T
FRI: GE, HON, MCD, VZ

Market Commentary

Last week's comment: "We could see some follow up to this week's rally, taking the S&P500 to around 1225" -guess what? It closed almost at 1225!

Next week we could see more up-side action if earnings are good, and if there are no surprises from Europe. We also get earnings reports from all the big banks. AAPL could also rally like GOOG did last week, and Friday is options expiration, so I suspect the market will hold up (squeezing all the bears). The Nasdaq broke out above the trading range we have been stuck in since early August, a good sign for the bulls. Watch for a potential top in IBM

This week's charts:
NASDAQ two week rally
 
Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $86.80
Natural gas rallied from a low, closing near $3.70
Gold was up, closing near $1683
The 30 year Bond futures were down gain, closing near $138.40
The US Dollar was down, closing near 76.87, and pushing stocks up

NEWS:
Dow, Nasdaq finish ahead for 2011
Stocks: A Critical Showdown Begins On Monday
Stocks brace for earnings deluge
Consumer Sentiment Falls, Expectations at 30-Year Low

Kinder Morgan to Purchase El Paso for Approximately $38 Billion
For Fannie and Freddie, the Party Goes On
Muni meltdown? No. But don't ignore risks.
Raj Rajaratnam, hedge fund billionaire, gets 11-year sentence for insider trading
Occupy Wall Street movement spreads with demonstrations in dozens of cities across the globe

S&P Downgrades Spain's Debt Rating, Citing Weak Growth

Stock Market Blog -Oct 8th

We got a nice rally this week as I expected, as Europe seems to be making some progress on their financial issues. Lets see what the rest of this new quarter will bring. Among the big news this week was the death of Steve Jobs, Apple's founder, and a true innovator. He will be missed for all his unique contributions to the technology world.

New highs: RAI
Drops: AMR, CLWR,
All time lows: UNG

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 401,000 (chart)
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season kicks off again, with the following companies among those reporting:
MON:
TUE: AA
WED: PEP
THU: JPM, GOOG
FRI:

Market Commentary

We could see some follow up to this week's rally, taking the S&P500 to around 1225, which would move it back above the 50 period moving average. Earnings reports starting next week will help determine the next move, along with events in Europe, making it a very news driven week.

This week's charts:
Grains might be set for a rebound after a beating in September (commodities)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $82.98
Natural gas fell again, closing near $3.48
Gold was up a bit closing near $1635
The 30 year Bond futures were down, closing near $141.28
The US Dollar was down, closing near 79.09

NEWS:
Steve Jobs, Apple founder, dies

Stocks lock in weekly gains
Lessons you need to put into action as bear emerges
Average stock bear market lasts more than a year
A Long, Strange Trip: Market Goes Absolutely Nowhere Over 3 Years
The Big Money Is Now Headed for These 3 Safe Havens
Either We Are In For A Lehman Crash Or A Big Rebound
Could Morgan Stanley Go Belly Up?
$1.3 trillion deficit for 2011, CBO says

Wall Street protests grow after unions' endorsement
The Lowest Mortgage Rate ... Ever!
Where to next for oil — $50 or $100?

Fitch downgrades Italian, Spanish debt ratings
Bank of England hits the panic button

Stock Market Blog -Oct 2nd

The market was up, then back down this week. Bad economic news, along with the ongoing situation in Europe continue to keep the market in a range, without any real direction. We closed the 3rd quarter with a big loss in the overall market.

New 52 week highs: DUK, PGN
Drops: AMD, BIDU, FMCN, NFLX,

New unemployment claims were down again, coming in at 391,000 (chart). 
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The monthly jobs report is due on Friday. Also, YUM reports earnings on Tuesday

Market Commentary

No real change in the outlook. Here is last week's comment: "The market dropped, and continues to trade in a range that started in early August. We are now at the bottom of that range again, and could turn back up next week. If we break down instead, we could see continued selling down to the 1050 - 1000 level on the S&P500!"

With any luck, we'll get another short bounce this week to kick off the new quarter, before we start to get earnings reports.

This weeks charts: 


Bank of New York stock back to 2009 crisis level!
RIMM still dropping
BIDU approaching 100!
FXI -Bad year for China

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were down, closing around $78 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was lower, closing near $3.65
Gold was down, closing around $1627. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $143.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 79.50



News:
S&P 500 Declined 14% in 3rd Quarter
Looking for Market Bottom? There May Be Hope Yet
Many markets are deep in bear territory
It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse  ...New Recession Unavoidable (video)
Goldman Sachs: Risks of a Recession are High and Rising

China’s Stocks Sink to April 2009 Low as Quarterly Losses Mount
Jim Chanos Is Still Short Chinese Banks, Property Developers
Investor Fear Over Morgan Stanley Sharpens
Kodak Hires Legal Adviser Amid Talk of Bankruptcy
Amazon Stock Up 3,500 Percent in Past Decade
Apple expected to up the ante with new iPhone