Stock Market Blog -Jan 1st

Happy New Year to all.

The market was more or less flat for this holiday week. The first week of January usually brings in new money so we could see the recent rally continue.

The top stock in the S&P500 for 2011 was COG (few people are familiar with the name).
Top sectors were XLU and XLP, and Bonds.
Probably the worst sector was Solar, followed by Financials and Basic Materials.
Big winners this year: MA, V,  ISRG, ROST, TJX, DLTR, BIIB, PRGO, TLT and more...
Big losers this year: AMR, BAC, C, EK, FSLR, NFLX, MWW, ODP, OMX, RIMM

10 best stocks for 2012

New all time highs: ISRG, DUK, PGN
All time lows: UNG (natural gas)

Pops & Drops: SHLD tanked this week!

Next week: Economic reports  Holiday week -4 trading days. Monthly jobs report due on Friday.

Market Commentary

Still looking for an 'ABC' up leg to complete this rally which started around Dec 19th. We could get it next week as we kick off 2012, followed by earnings reports the next week. This year had many ups and downs in the market, finishing right where it started.

In the bigger picture, we could see more downside action in 2012 as the European situation worsens, and the US Dollar strengthens. Does that mean Bonds will rally even more? We'll see!

This week's charts:
2011 winners
2011 losers
10 year Treasury yields lower than 2008!

2011 market performance:

Sectors:

The big picture:

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $98.83
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.99
Gold dropped, closing near $1566
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $144.81
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.52

NEWS:
U.S. stocks end mixed year with a whimper
Dow's biggest losers and winners (2011)
The year’s best and worst sector funds
The Economy's Not as Bad as You Think
In 2012, something’s gotta give
TREASURIES-US 10-yr yield heads for biggest annual drop since 2008
Sears, Kmart Stores Closing: S&P Puts Retailer On Review For Downgrade

Euro Leaders Aim to Buy Time to Save Currency
Emerging markets take 2011 hit; 2012 may be better
Natural Gas Falls Below $3 for First Time in More Than 2 Years in New York
Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall

Stock Market Blog -Dec 25th MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Santa didn't forget us after all! We got a nice rally this week as we saw bonds drop. With any luck, the rally will continue into the New Year, before we head into earnings season. The ECB provided about $500 billion in low interest money to the Eurozone banks, helping to drive the rally. Third quarter GDP was revised down again, to 1.8%. Basically, the market has been flat for 2011, ending just about where it started.

New all time highs: ED, KOG, MCD, PETM, PM, ROST, TJX, V, XLP
All time lows: SDS, DXD, TZA -leveraged inverse Index ETFS

Pops & Drops: ORCL, BBBY, and RHT dropped after earnings; CRM broke support

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 364,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Holiday week -4 trading days, light volume.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

The SPY did dip back to the 120 level as I mentioned last week, then we got a nice rally. The chart of the SPY could be indicating an 'ABC' pattern which started after Thanksgiving, pulled back to 120, and now could continue up to near the 130 level, finishing off a nice rally. Bonds have dropped nicely too.

This week's charts:
GOOG -going back to $700?
AAPL -moving up
V -nice performer

GPC -nice performer
MCD -nice performer
ROST & TJX -discounters doing well!
RIMM -going to zero??

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just under $99.68
Natural Gas was unchanged, closing near $3.11
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1606
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.24

NEWS:
Santa rally may face test next week
Jobless Claims Drop, but 3rd-Quarter Growth Is Revised Down
Dollar selling likely next week on year-end adjustment
Interbank Markets Are Telling Investors To Sell The Rally ... Again
Paulson Fund Loses 46% in 2011 Through November

My Top 10 Stock Predictions For 2012 And Some Options Plays 
Last U.S. Troops Leave Iraq
U.S. Poised To Retake Status As Net Oil Exporter 
Banks gorge on ECB loans, market cheer short-lived
Automaker Saab files for bankruptcy

Stock Market Blog -Dec 18th

The market dropped this week, with the Nasdaq 100 giving back most of the gains from the huge 1 day rally on Nov 30th.

Gold and Silver tumbled, along with other commodities, and the stock market, as the dollar rallied.

New all time highs: ABV, ED, KMP, PETM
Pops & Drops: RIMM dropped again!

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 366,000 (chart)
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
ORCL and NKE report earnings.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

No Santa Claus rally -so far anyway. The market bounced off resistance and turned down again this week. Again it's hard to tell where it's headed next, with Europe driving most of the action. Maybe now is a good time to take a holiday break -Happy Holidays to all!

(for the die hard traders, we could see more downside action as the other indices fall back to the Nov 30th pre-rally levels (e.g 120 on the SPY) -The Nasdaq 100 is basically there already).

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -Interest rates
SNE -Sony, 25 years -no change!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $94
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.12
Gold tanked! ...closing near $1600
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $145.32
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 80.20

NEWS:
Early rally fades; stock market down for the week
U.S. stocks expected to yield to Europe

3 Wicked Reasons To Buy Mortgage REITs Today
Don't Be Fooled, Gold Will Soar In 2012
Gold to Slip Below $1,500 in Next 3 Months: Poll

How Amazon has proven that iTunes is totally obsolete

Stock Market Blog -Dec 11th

The markets were up slightly this week as Europe managed to push out their crisis to the future once again. Weekly unemployment claims dropped to a 9 month low, while Financials continued to rally.

New all time highs:
ABV, ENB, HANS, IBM, MCD, NKE, QCOR, SWI, ORLN, PGN, ROST, YUM
Pops & Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 381,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
BBY, FDX, RIMM report earnings, and we also have the Federal Reserve meeting.

Market Commentary

The market continued to hold on to its gains from the previous week, which is a good sign. We could see it start working its way above the next resistance level around 1275 on the S&P500 (also near the 200MA). Maybe we'll get a Santa Claus rally -hard to tell at this point. Bonds showed some signs of pulling back this week, which could also be a good sign for stocks.

Why Chipotle Is Going To $400
MercadoLibre: Positioned For E-Commerce Boom

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -earnings

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $99.41
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.32
Gold dropped, closing near $1716.80
The 30 year Bond futures fell a bit, closing near $141.16
The US Dollar was up slightly, closing near 78.63

NEWS:
Stocks Log Second Weekly Gain after EU Summit
U.S. stocks end higher, with Dow up 1.4% on week
Jobless Claims in U.S. at Lowest in Nine Months
300 Billion Reasons To Lighten Up On Risk Next Week

Inflation is still the silent killer
Treasury Should Sell Its GM Stake to GM
Secrets of the Bailout, Now Revealed

Brazil's economic growth stalls in third quarter
World Banks In Cahoots To Save Themselves
European summit: Now it's up to the ECB

Stock Market Blog -Dec 4th

We got a nice rally this week, with some perceived good news from Europe, and from the banking system. The DOW was up 492 points on Wednesday after central banks announced a plan to help banks borrow dollars to stem the Euro crisis; also China lowered reserve requirements for its banks. Bank stocks saw a nice rally (XLF), and international markets rallied almost 10% for the week. This was the best rally in the markets since March 2009, when the markets subsequently rallied for two more years.

We also got a good(?) jobs report on Friday, indicating a lower unemployment rate of 8.6%.
Meanwhile, the debt clock is now over the $15,000,000,000,000 mark!

New all time highs:
AMT, COST, FAST, FTI, GPC, HUM, KOG, MCD, KMR, MA, TJX, PETM, ROST, V
Pops: ZUMZ
Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 400,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally from an oversold condition, as I suggested last week. Now lets see if it holds. I think the rally will continue into the new year, when earnings once again will determine the next move. We are back above the congestion area between 1120 and 1220 on the S&P500. Also we should hear more news out of Europe next week

This week's charts:
AMR -airline in trouble?  << last week's comment! This week: Bankrupt!
MCD -star performer over 10 years!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $100.96
Natural gas was up a bit, closing near $3.58
Gold was up, closing near $1751
The 30 year Bond futures fell, as stocks rallied, closing near $141.81
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 78.73

NEWS:
S&P 500 Gains Most Since March 2009 on Bank Action in Europe, Retail Sales
Stocks Surge for the Week; Best Gain Since 2009
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops To Lowest Level In Well Over Two Years
Bond ETFs: Why It’s Time To Dump U.S. Treasury Bonds; Again!
Congressional Stock Trading Fails the Sniff Test, Should Earn a Ban

J.P. Morgan: Verizon is getting its iPhone reward this quarter
About Apple's incredible shrinking P/E ratio
Euro debt crisis solution on horizon
Europe Enters Critical 10 Days to Save Itself
European Banks: Here's a Loan to Buy Our Loans