Stock Market Blog -Mar 25th

The market pulled back this week, though leading stocks seemed to hold their ground, so the rally may not be over yet (we still have to finish out the quarter). Oil and gas prices remain at elevated levels, and I expect this will eventually take a toll on on investor bullishness.  We saw another mini 'flash crash' on Friday on the Bats exchange (ironically, on the day Bats was supposed to go public!) Bonds rallied as stocks dipped lower.

New all time highs:   AAPL, ABV, ACN, CMG, DFS, DG, DKS, MNST, NUS, PM, PX, RGR, SPG, SBUX, XRT
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects! Also throw in: VXX, TVIX
Pops:  LULU, RGR, WDC...
Drops: KBH (home builders), NKE

Beware of leveraged ETFs/ETNs that don't accurately track their underlying.

BTW -that's a drop from 450 to 17 vs. a drop from 45 to 15!!

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings reports from BBY and RIMM.

Market Commentary

This week's pullback might be a set-up for another rally into the end of the quarter. Also keep in mind however, the VIX (volatility indicator -chart above) is at a 'low' point which suggests we could soon see a reversal in this market rally.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -one more rally coming this week?


Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down a bit, closing near $106.87
Natural Gas was down some more, closing near $2.27
Gold recovered a bit, closing near $1662
30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks pulled back, closing near $137.81
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.57

NEWS:
U.S. stocks close tough week on bright note
First Quarter On Track to Be Best in 14 years
Is The VIX Flashing A Buy Signal?
Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets
Apple: New iPad Sales Total 3 Million
IPad: The PC Killer

TVIX Plummets Nearly 30% Despite Rallying VIX (TVIX, VXX)
Bank of America Tests Rental Program as Alternative to Foreclosure 
Food Stamp Usage Continues To Set Records
Spain Is Not Out of the Woods Yet

Stock Market Blog -Mar 18th

The market continued to move higher, helped by the Fed on Tuesday, and also by AAPL. The NASDAQ broke over the 3000 level, which it first crossed in 1999!

Banks also rallied as results of the stress test were mostly positive. Bonds have been slowly falling in value and finally started selling off this week after the Fed meeting. Gold also dropped, while Oil maintained  lofty levels. Natural Gas prices continued to linger at 10 year lows.

New all time highs:   BUD, CMG, DG, HLF, IBM, MHS, NKE, PM, SBUX, SPG

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS -the usual suspects!
Pops:  Banks! (stress test). Also AAPL of course.
Drops:

S&P 500: 3rd time crossing above 1400 in the past 12 years

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings reports from NKE, ORCL, RIMM, and LULU

Market Commentary

The S&P500 broke out above last year's high, which could be a bullish sign. We closed the week over the 1400 level. Looks like we could close out this 1st quarter with a bang! AAPL continues to drive higher, helping the NASDAQ and the S&P500 because it is a large component of those indexes. The small cap Russell 2000 is still lagging (IWM); maybe we'll see it break out in the coming weeks. I expect the rally will continue into the end of the 1st quarter.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -broke 'above' resistance this week (so much for a double top...)
Natural Gas -how long will these low prices hold?
SBUX -coffee's still hot!
Bonds -breaking down (below)

 Bonds finally broke down

The VIX (volatility index) is approaching a bottom again -is the stock rally 'almost' over?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were unchanged, closing near $107.06
Natural Gas was up slightly, closing near $2.33
Gold sold off again, closing near $1655
30 year Bond futures dropped (chart below), closing near $136.44
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.08

NEWS:
U.S. stock indexes end 2.4% up for week
Stock Market Today Ends Mixed, But At Multiyear Highs
Treasurys fall to end worst week since July
Is the bond bubble finally bursting? 
America’s recovery is neither robust nor dramatic. But it is real
Here Comes The 2012 Tidal Wave Of Foreclosures
How to Spot a Company That's at the Top of its Game
Apple continues to defy gravity as stock hits $600
It's not your father's Nasdaq 3,000
This market is headed higher

Is MF Global Getting a Free Pass?
Coal, Oil, Solar Stocks Rally On Multitude Of Causes
Natural gas: U.S. energy market’s best bargain?
Scarce Oil? U.S. Has 60 Times More Than Obama Claims
Brace for China's impending crash

Stock Market Blog -Mar 11th

The market dropped early in the week, only to rally back up again, ending mostly flat for the week. We got 'some' closure to the Greece situation (again!). Basically, Greece officially defaulted on their debt this week. Also, a good 'Jobs' report on Friday helped stocks to rally. Meanwhile, gas prices continue to climb.

Bonds continued to drop -looking weak for 2012! Maybe Bonds topped on Dec 19th, when the stock market rally started.

New all time highs:  ABV, BWLD, CCI, CMG, COH, DG, DKS, HLF, ISRG, IBM, KMI, LULU, MHS, MNST, NKE, ORLY, ROST, TJX, SBUX, CVS, NKE, PETM, SBH, UA, YUM, XRT (retailers), and more...

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS -the usual suspects!
Pops:  SBUX, SWHC
Drops: GMCR, MCD

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Another Fed meeting is scheduled this week, and we get quarterly Options expiration on Friday.

Market Commentary

The market re-bounded nicely this week to the previous high of a week earlier, and could be setting up for a double top here. Volume was somewhat low on this week's rally. The market could just hold up at these levels a while longer, as quarterly Options expiration approaches on Friday. Keep your powder dry till we get a better sense of direction from here.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -setting up for a double top?
HPQ -Ugly chart! (DOW tech stock)
IBM -Pretty chart (DOW tech stock)
BP -can it break out over $50?
SBUX -how far can coffee go?
CMG -how far can Mexican fast food go?

INTC approaching a multi-year high

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing near $107.13
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.28 -a 10 year low!
Gold was mostly flat, closing near $1713
30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $140.53
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 79.99

NEWS:
Stocks: Bull market enters fourth year
Time To Change Trading Strategy
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Set to Default on $5.27 Million GO Bond Payments
Starbucks Will Roast Green Mountain: Analyst
BofA to slash mortgage balances by $100,000 or more
More Boomers Selling Homes, but Who Will Buy Them?
iPad pre-sales sold out worldwide in two days

Import surge sends China trade to decade-deep deficit
Greece Default Is Official; Insurance Payouts Triggered

Stock Market Blog -Mar 4th

The market was mostly flat this week (S&P 500), though the Small Caps have started trending down (IWM). Bonds and Gold dropped, as did the Euro, mostly after Ben Bernake's testimony. AAPL reached another all time high, and crossed the $500 billion level in market value. Oil touched $110 this week!

New all time highs:  AAPL, AZO, BWA, CCI, CIG, CMG, COH, DISCA, DKS, FAST, HLF, ISRG, IBM, LULU, MNST, NKE, ORLY, PAA, PM, ROST, TDC, TJX, UA, and more...

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects!
Pops:  AZO
Drops: FSLR

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
All eyes will be on the monthly Jobs report due on Friday morning. Also, Apple should announce the iPad 3 this week. This could cause another pop in the stock price, or a 'sell the news' pullback!

Market Commentary

The S&P 500 finally took out the May 2011 high (1370); we could see a pullback at this resistance level. The Small Caps have already been pulling back, and may provide a small clue on the next move in the markets. The US Dollar has started to move back up as well, another negative for stocks. From a purely 'technical' standpoint though, the rally is still very much intact.

Meanwhile, the DOW contiinues to flirt with 13000 and the NASDAQ with 3000.

This week's charts:
S&P 500 -finally took out the 2011 high of 1370
AZO -wow!
Nasdaq 100 vs Small Caps -big divergence!

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $106.70
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.48
Gold tumbled, closing near $1709
30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.22
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 79.46

NEWS:

Why some investors are worried about Dow 13,000
What’s the big deal about Nasdaq 3,000?
1450 or 1250: What’s S&P More Likely to Print, Next?
London Is Eating New York’s Lunch
Moody's Downgrades Greece to Lowest Rating on Scale
Putin Wins Presidency And New Six Year Term