Stock Market Blog -Jun 24th

The market dropped this week, seemingly after the Fed failed to announce any new stimulus for the economy. Bonds dropped a bit too -they usually go in opposite directions. Gold, Silver, and Oil dropped as well. Moody's also downgraded 15 large banks!

New all time highs:  FF DG  MJN N ONXX QCOR TRIP WFM V VZ
All time lows:  TVIX

Pops:  ARNA ONXX
Drops:  BBBY CELG PG R WAG

Next week: Economic reports

Earnings reports from: FDO, GIS,  MON, NKE, and RIMM

Market Commentary

The market reversed the up-trend for now, after the big drop on Thursday. We're still in a market without any real direction, and I still think we could see the rally continue before we hit earnings season in July. Meanwhile, there are some good potential trades in market leaders and momentum stocks while we wait for the bigger trend to setup.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -more up-side next week?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was down again, closing near $79.76
Natural Gas was up a bit, closing near $2.63
Gold was down, closing near $1567
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $149.34
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 82.44

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Stock Market Blog -Jun 17th

The market rallied again this week, making it two in a row. Events in Europe over this weekend (Greece election), along with Egypt elections, a G20 meeting, and a Fed meeting, all will make for a very busy market next week.

New all time highs: 
ATHN DG DIS DLTR EQIX EXPE FDO PETM PGN ROST QCOR SO UA WFM
All time lows:  PCX

Pops: 
Drops:  NOK

Next week: Economic reports

Earnings reports from FDX and ORCL

Market Commentary

The market downtrend may have reversed for now, though this coming week has multiple events which can easily cause a change in direction. When there are so many news events pending, it's best to stay on the sidelines, or maybe sell some volatility in the options market. We saw similar volatility in May and June of 2011 (below). We could see the rally continue before we hit earnings season in July.

Last week's call for a rally into options expiration worked out well too!

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -another rally next week?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $84.03
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $2.47
Gold was up, closing near $1628
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $150.22
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 81.60

NEWS:Stocks End Up 1% on Stimulus Hopes; FB Soars
Stocks: Investors keep eyes pinned on Greece
Look Out Below! This S&P Sector Could Drop Up to 46%
Nokia To Cut 10,000 Jobs As Elop Tries To Stanch Losses
Baidu: A Growth Story That Is Broken, With A $90-$100 Price Target

Short-Term Gold Options Get Physical
Natural Gas Prices Surge Over Surprise Outlook
G20 leaders to meet in shadow of Europe crisis
Greeks Will Vote 'With Emotions' as World Watches

Stock Market Blog -Jun 10th

The market rallied this week, the biggest rally for the year -no real news though. The prior week we saw one of the biggest drops for the year -so now we're even :)

Bond futures pulled back from extreme levels (in price). Oil looks like it's trying to put in a bottom around $85. The US dollar continued to pull back, indicating higher prices for stocks and commodities.

New all time highs:  DIS DG EXPE PETM UA
All time lows:  ANR

Pops:  ULTA WMT
Drops:  LULU TPX

Next week: Economic reports Options and Futures expiration on Friday.

Market Commentary

The market reversed up this week, catching a lot of people off guard. June expiration is coming up next Friday (options and futures), and all the shorts will be squeezed, driving the market even higher! This is a 'quarterly' expiration cycle. Also everyone that bought bonds for 'safety' will be disappointed too. Welcome to Mr. Market!

Longer term though, the trend is still down, unless this upcoming week proves otherwise.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -if this reversal holds, that was the bottom!
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was up a bit, closing near $84.10
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $2.30
Gold dropped, closing near $1591
The 30 year Bond pulled back from the huge rally, closing near $149.22
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 82.56

NEWS:
Stocks: Best week of 2012
Apple: It's The Week We've All Been Waiting For
When the Chinese Cut Rates It's Time to Worry
A Perfect Failure: Why the 401(k) Has Been a Flop
Some Sun Shines on Chinese Solar Companies
Spain seeks $125 billion in EU aid for banks

Stock Market Blog -Jun 3rd

More red ink in the market this week as Europe's problems linger on, and US problems linger on! The monthly jobs report on Friday was a huge disappointment, and the market let us know that. Meanwhile Bonds soared as investors fled to so-called safe havens. That too will be a disappointment one day. The 10 year Note yield plunged to a record low! In Germany, yields on 2 year Notes went negative!

Gold rallied almost $60 after the jobs report on Friday.

New highs: DF DUK
New lows:  DELL FB FSLR ACI/ANR/BTU

Pops:  DUK, ABX (most gold stocks)
Drops:  YUM, LVS

Next week: Economic reports 
The Fed testifies before Congress on Thursday...

Investors fled to Gold and Bonds this week!

Market Commentary

The downward spiral continues, with the next stop around 1250 on the S&P500, where I think we'll see some capitulation and a bounce. We are at support levels in the Euro FX, as well as other indices. Bonds are at crazy levels. On any drop from here, I think the risk/reward favors being long the S&P (or your index of choice), and short Bonds (TLT or Bond futures). Selling July 'Put Spreads' on the SPY/QQQ/IWM as the market moves toward support, might be a safe way to play for a bounce (OptionsMakeSense).

Beaten down Gold stocks may be starting a new rally???  GDX, GDXJ, GG, AUY, EGO, etc.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -nearing support again? 1250..ish?
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

May sell-off

How much higher will Bonds go???

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices continued to slide, again, closing near $83.23
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $2.33
Gold rallied, closing near $1622
30 year Bond did a huge rally, closing near $152.63
The US Dollar rallied again as the Euro fell, closing near 82.98

NEWS:
U.S. stocks fall 2%-plus, adding to week’s gloom
Are Stocks About to Repeat Their Summer Horror Show?
Treasuries Surge as Dow Erases 2012 Gain
Europe, Fed-watching to dominate next week
Microsoft reinvents the wheel with Windows 8
Facebook closes below IPO price range

Well, We've Officially Had A "Correction!" But Stocks Still Aren't Cheap
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Europe Fears Bailout of Spain Would Strain Its Resources
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