Stock Market Blog -Aug 26th

The market finally got back up to the April high this week, then pulled back a bit. Next week will probably tell us where the market wants to go next, after the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole. It's also coming up on the end of the summer season, when supposedly Wall Street gets back to work in September. Meanwhile Oil prices are approaching $100 per barrel again, and Gold prices also popped this week. DELL and HPQ both dropped after reporting earnings.

The national debt is now approaching $16,000,000,000,000! (debt clock on the left)

New all time highs:   AMZN, CBS, DFS, FBHS, HAIN, ITW, KORS, KFT, RGLD, STZ, SJM, WPI
All time lows: ANGI, MCP
Pops: HAIN, LLY, SRZ, URBN, WSM
Drops:  ADSK, BBY, BIG, DELL, HPQ

Next week: Economic reports  

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: CIEN, TIF
The Fed meeting in Jackson Hole late next week could be a market mover, as investors await word on QE3 stimulus.

Market Commentary

We pulled back from the 1422 high on the SPX just as I mentioned last week! Next week will probably be quiet until the Fed meeting. We could see a sharp pullback on missed expectations from the Fed (we've had a nice rally since the beginning of June). AAPL could also propel the market higher on Monday following their victory in the Samsung copyright case.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -at the April high. Looks like a double top so far...
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $97.45
Natural Gas was up, closing near $2.75
Gold rallied, closing near $1677
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $148.19
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 81.65

NEWS:
Stocks: Investors await Bernanke speech
Unemployment Claims Highest In 5 Weeks, Rise To 372,000
Sweeping Apple Win, but Samsung Set for Bounce-Back
Forget Apple, Forget Facebook: Here's The One Company That Actually Terrifies Google Execs
Serious Divergence: Dow, S&P Vs. EUR/USD

The Best Of The S&P 500
Is The SuperDividend ETF For You?
There's a Surprise in Your Next 401(k) Statement
Gold and silver surge on Fed hopes
What Bubble? Why Bond Pros Are Still Betting on Junk

Stock Market Blog -Aug 19th

The market continued to move up this week, extending the rally to highs not seen since the 2007 top. The SPY ETF (S&P500) is flirting with all time highs! In reverse correlation, we are finally seeing Bonds dropping in price. We could see a lot of Bond bulls capitulate, driving prices even lower, though we are now at a decent support level. Also, Oil is now above $95 per barrel again.

Facebook falls to half of public offering price
AAPL hit a new all time high this week.
WMT and SPLS dropped after reporting earnings

New all time highs:  AAPL, CVX, CF, DFS, FL, FBHS, KORS, PM, PSX, STX, STZ, SJM, SWI, TJX,
All time lows: FB, GRPN, MCP
Pops: ANN, CSCO, KORS, SJM
Drops:  CHL, GRPN, MRVL, NTES, SPLS

Next week: Economic reports  

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: 
BBY, DELL, HPQ, LOW

Market Commentary

We are still heading to 1422 on the SPX (just about there), where I think we should see some kind of pullback.The VIX continues to drop, and is now below the April bottom, a level which could also confirm some downside in the market in the near future. Everyone is looking at the same predictions, which scares me into thinking we'll all get faked out and the market will continue higher -so be careful. Maybe sell Iron Condors to play both sides (OptionsMakeSense).
Bonds dropped again, and TLT still looks attractive, now at a support level.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -almost at the April high. Will we see a double top?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied again, closing near $96
Natural Gas pulled back slightly, closing near $2.71
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1617
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $145.88 -4 week drop!
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 82.67

NEWS:
Dow ends higher for sixth week 
Is This Market Rally Legit or Nothing but a Head Fake?
Apple Closes at New All-Time High
Sell Apple: Longs Could Be in For a Fall
State unemployment rates rise in 44 states
Fannie and Freddie: The Walking Dead
General Motors Is Headed For Bankruptcy -- Again
Think twice before jumping on gold’s bandwagon
Jim Rogers on the Coming Fiscal ‘Catastrophe’

Stock Market Blog -Aug 12th

Stocks continued the rally this week, although at a slower pace and with light volume. Bonds dropped as stocks rallied. Gold rallied a bit too. Next week we get earnings from a few more DOW companies. Corn prices continue to hit record highs as drought conditions persist.

PCLN dropped more than $100 after reporting earnings.

New all time highs:    CVX, STX,
All time lows: 
Pops: DF
Drops:  MNST PCLN

Next week: Economic reports   ...Options expiration

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: 
CSCO, DE, DLTR, GRPN, HD, TGT, WMT

Market Commentary

Last week's comment: "we could see 1400 on the SPX before long. Where we go from there is anyone's guess, but if we take out the April high of 1422, we could go much higher" -looks like we're heading for the 1422 level. Don't forget Options expiration this week -another reason the market will probably hold up.
The VIX is now below 15, a level which could indicate some downside in the market in the near future.

Bonds dropped again, and still looks attractive (TLT).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -up-channel still intact
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $92.87
Natural Gas pulled back, closing near $2.77
Gold was up, closing near $1620
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $148.84
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 82.63

NEWS:Is this the rally?
Dow Theory Still Says Sell
Stocks May Climb in These Dog Days of Summer
Will a Strong Dollar Finally Be Good Sign for Stocks?
Banks Stealing Our Wealth and Our Sovereignty
Why Are Investors Fleeing Equities? Hint: It’s Not the Computers

Insight: Knight's Joyce gets reprieve but new owners want answers
JCPenney Hasn't Hit Bottom Yet: Analyst
Google's Recent Quarter Should Scare Rivals
10 things Apple won’t tell you
9 Reasons Facebook Will Crash
Hard landing for China as factory prices fall and deflation looms

Stock Market Blog -Aug 5th

The market rallied on Friday after a better than expected monthly Jobs report, recovering losses from earlier in the week. Bonds dropped as stocks rallied. Earnings season is just about over, so the market will need a new catalyst to move in one direction or the other. Europe may come back into focus again. Interesting to note is that the small cap stocks (IWM) are lagging way behind the rest of the market (SPY, DIA).

New all time highs:   ABT, ATHN, DKS, EXPE, PM, SPG, SWI, TJX, UA, VTR
All time lows:  FB,MCP, ZNGA, ZIP

Pops: CRUS, GMCR, LNKD, MELI
Drops: ANF, COH, HUM, KCG, MCP, ZIP

Next week: Economic reports   ...slow week?

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: 
CF, CHK, DIS, ESRX, JCP, M, ODP, PCLN, WEN

Market Commentary

As I mentioned last week, we could see 1400 on the SPX before long.Where we go from there is anyone's guess, but if we take out the April high of 1422, we could go much higher. Also we are at the top of the up-channel started in early June in the SPY, and could pull back into the channel again.

Bonds might start looking attractive again too (TLT).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -up-channel still intact
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

XOM and CVX -bouncing off the top again, or going higher this time?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $91.40
Natural Gas pulled back a bit, closing near $2.88
Gold pulled back a bit, closing near $1606
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $149.53
The US Dollar pulled back a bit, closing near 82.45

NEWS:
Wall Street Week Ahead: Positive momentum in the face of headwinds
The Bad News In Friday's Jobs Report
The dollar is now corporate America's worst enemy
Oil at 2-Week High, Biggest 1-Day Gain in a Month
Central Banks Can’t Save the World
How about quantitative easing for the people?
The depression is here — it’s just invisible
How the 2004 Olympics Triggered Greece's Decline
After five years of crisis, the euro area risks Japanese-style economic stagnation