Stock Market Blog -Sep 30th

This week we pulled back into the up-channel in effect since June. This week also marks the end of the 3rd quarter, and a good one it was, for stocks and also for Gold. We saw the market get back up to the 2007 highs (before the financial crisis). AAPL helped to push the markets up, but we also saw good performance from some of the DOW stocks. Bonds started to break down this quarter too.

New all time highs:    ACN, ALXN, CAG, DFS, LQD, N, RGLD, WPI
All time lows: 
Pops: ACN,
Drops:  FTNT

Next week: Economic reports  * Monthly Jobs report on Friday *
Earnings reports from MON, MOS, and FDO

Market Commentary

My call last week for a pullback turned out to be a good one -all the stars were lined up as they say. Next week could bring more volatility as we get the Jobs report on Friday, and some other important economic reports, so buckle up. Some stocks are still very 'overbought' like GOOG, HD, DIS, WMT, etc.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -more correction, or rally back up from here?
OptionsMakeSense

With all the attention focused on AAPL, few have noticed that GOOG is up $200 recently!

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $92.19
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $3.32
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1771
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $149.38
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.03

NEWS:
Week ahead for stocks: All eyes on jobs
'Zombie Economy' May Give Markets a Scare in October
Apple CEO: "We are extremely sorry" for Maps frustration
Major banks hit with biggest cyberattacks in history
The 3 most overvalued assets today

Anyone Wondering Why Google's Stock Is Soaring Should Look At The Cash Flow...
Salesforce, NetSuite markets keep growing
BofA to Pay $2.43 Billion to End Investor Lawsuit Over Merrill
China manufacturing continues to slump

Stock Market Blog -Sep 23rd

The market was pretty much flat this week, as quarterly Options expiration approached. I guess everything was positioned just right! AAPL pinned at $700 (I predicted that, based on the options open interest). Maybe we'll see a small correction in the market for October? The VIX is also at a very low level, typically a turning point for the market. Bonds could rally again.

New all time highs:   AAPL, ABT, AEP, ALXN, CAG, CBS, CCI, CMCSA, COV, CVX, DIS, DISCA, DRI, EXPE, FBHS, GILD, KORS, LNKD, LTD, PG, RAX, RGLD, TRV, WFM, XLV
All time lows:  VXX
Pops: CAG, KBH
Drops:  BBBY, FDX, JCP, NSC, QCOR, 

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports from DFS, NKE, and RIMM

Market Commentary

The market could be ready for a pullback here -low VIX, quarterly Options expiration out of the way, Bonds rallying, etc. (see VIX chart below). October can be a volatile month, so buying 'volatility' could pay off (e.g. VXX). We could see a correction in AAPL too, now that the news is out. And problems with the Euro still lurk in the background. These are all contrarian views (the charts don't really point to a well defined top).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -overbought/low VIX
OptionsMakeSense

VIX bottom = Market top?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $92.89
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $2.89
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1775
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $146.88
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 79.40

NEWS:
Stocks: U.S. economy in focus
Market Expects More Drama Heading Into Fourth Quarter
Bank of America reportedly plans to cut 16,000 jobs
Why Investors May Get a Flood of One-Time Dividends Soon
S&P 500: The Apple effect

Bearish Treasury Bets Hit a Record Amid Inflation Concern
The Recession That Won't End
Specter of China 'Hard Landing' Haunts Global Economy
The Next Panic

Stock Market Blog -Sep 16th

The market rallied this week after the FED announced another helicopter drop, to the tune of $40 billion per month, indefinitely! Full speed ahead. As you would expect, the US Dollar dropped, Bonds dropped, and Gold rallied.

New all time highs:  AAPL, ACN, AMZN, COST, CBS, CBE, COV, DIS, DFS, DTV, CVX, FL, FBHS, GILD, ITW, LNKD, PG, PSX, RAX, RGLD, UA, XLV, XLY, XOM, XRT, JNK, HYG
All time lows:  VXX, SDS, TZA -again! also EDZ, FAZ, ERY
Pops: everything!
Drops:   AZO

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports from ORCL, FDX, and GIS
Don't forget Options expiration on Friday -quarterly too.

Market Commentary

Pretty much the same commentary as last week! The market continued to rally, keeping the trend in place, so the trade is still to be long stocks -and the Fed did move the markets! Volatility continues to approach new lows (VIX), meaning that stocks could be also be close to a top -it's very extended at this point. Maybe we'll see a turn after Options expiration.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -now overbought
OptionsMakeSense

NASDAQ vs. S&P 500 (15 years)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $99
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $2.94
Gold rallied again, closing near $1770
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $144.56
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 78.84

NEWS:
U.S. Stocks Rally to Highest Since 2007 Amid Fed Stimulus
Sign of the Times: 22% of the S&P 500 at New Multi-Year Highs
Fed Unveils QE3
Fed Juices Stocks—but What Could Bring Out the Bears?
Time to Bail Out on Treasurys?
Dow average dumps Kraft Foods for UnitedHealth
Moody’s Warns That U.S. May Face Debt Downgrade
Amazon Grossly Overpriced

Stock Market Blog -Sep 9th

We got a nice rally this week as the ECB announced their bond buying program. We also saw a lot of stocks break out to new highs, including the NASDAQ hitting a new 12 year high!  However, the disappointing monthly jobs report on Friday put a damper on the party. Also Fedex and Intel reduced their guidance based on a weakening economy. Lots of stocks hitting all time highs this week!

GOOG and AMZN continue to rally nicely!

New all time highs:    AAPL, AMZN, BUD, CCI, COST, CVX, CBS, DIS, DTV,  EW, FL, FBHS, GILD, ITW, LNKD, PG, RAX, RGLD, REGN, UA, ULTA, XLV, XLY, XOM, XRT
All time lows:  VXX, SDS, TZA
Pops:  CMG, FCX, LULU
Drops:  

Next week: Economic reports  Apple is expected to launch their new iPhone on Wednesday.

...Fed Meeting, Apple Event, German Court Decision

Market Commentary

The market continued to rally, keeping the trend in place, so the trade is still to be long stocks. The Fed could move the market on Wednesday, so be cautious. Volatility is approaching a low again (VIX), meaning that stocks could be close to a top. Gold is rallying once again as the US Dollar drops.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still trending up
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $96.32
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.66
Gold rallied again, closing near $1735
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $148.63
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 80.18

NEWS:Nasdaq Reaches Highest Level Since 2000 On Major ECB Decision
Apple and Amazon Make This a Very Different Nasdaq
Markets Crave Stimulus—Will the Fed Give Them Their Fix?
FedEx Echoes GLOBAL SLOWDOWN Fears

Is Jeff Bezos the Next Steve Jobs?
Is Apple’s Stock a BUY at Today’s Price?
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Earnings: Investors LOVE These Numbers

Stock Market Blog -Sep 2nd

The market waited all week for the Fed speech on Friday, then it turned out to be a non-event! Meanwhile Bond futures kept slowly creeping up all week, peaking on Friday. Gold also rallied. The NASDAQ has been mostly flat for the past two weeks (QQQ), though we did see a small rise in the VIX. Next Friday we get the monthly unemployment report. Meanwhile, FB and GRPN hit all time lows this week.

*** Our national debt is now over $16 gazillion dollars! (see debt clock on the left)

New all time highs:   AMZN, BUD, CCI, COST, ESRX, FBHS, PVH, REGN, RGLD, STZ, UA, XLV
All time lows: FB, GRPN
Pops:  P, WLP
Drops:  BPT, CIEN

Next week: Economic reports  (markets are closed on Monday)

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: CPB
The big event next week will be the monthly jobs report on Friday. Also look out for news from Europe.

Market Commentary

September is usually a month that investors view with caution, and this year is no different. The market is currently poised near a top (compared to last April's top), so we could see a reversal. However anything is possible, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the rally continue as well.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still struggling at this double top from April
OptionsMakeSense -VXX sample trade

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped a bit, closing near $96.47
Natural Gas was up, closing near $2.80
Gold rallied again, closing near $1685
The 30 year Bond rallied again, closing near $150.50
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 81.22

NEWS:
Stocks: Europe and jobs front and center
Is Wall Street on the Cusp of the Next Great Rally?
Too Soon to Unfriend Facebook?
Summertime Blues: Slowdown Spreading Around World
The Euro Crisis Is Back From Vacation
China’s Growing Economic Crisis