Stock Market Blog -Dec 30th

The market sold off as the 'fiscal cliff' remained unresolved. Next week will be decision time. Meanwhile the Yen continued to drop vs. the US dollar.

In 2013 we can look forward to continued European financial issues, US debt issues, and possibly some signs of inflation as the Fed continues to print hundreds of billions of dollars. The economy could contract if taxes go up, and unemployment lingers.

New all time highs: ?
All time lows: ?
Pops:  
Drops:

Next week: Economic reports  
Markets will be closed all day Tuesday for New Years.

Market Commentary

The coming week will be an interesting one as the clock runs out on the 'fiscal cliff' issue, and as we start off the new year. The market will tell us where it wants to go next, so hang in there and wait for the next move. Options Volatility has increased, so maybe selling Iron Condors on the SPY or IWM might present some opportunites.

2012 -a rocky road, but still profitable

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ?...depends on the cliff, again!
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing near $90.80
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.47
Gold dropped again, closing near $1656
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $148.38
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.79

NEWS:
Stocks brace for fiscal cliff reckoning
Retail Sales Disappoint, but Don't Write Them Off Yet
Fortune 500: Top-performing stocks of 2012

My Prediction For 2013 - All Other Predictions Will Be Wrong
Jubak's 10 top stocks for 2013
Reading Pessimism in the Market for Bonds

Stock Market Blog -Dec 23rd

The market rallied earlier in the week, but sold off as the fiscal cliff issue was still unresolved. AAPL closed near recent lows, and appears to be trying to form a bottom. Bonds sold off , but may also be finding support at this level. Likewise for Gold -it continues to sell off, but it may also be near a support level.

Interesting news: The NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) is being acquired by the ICE (InterContinental Exchange).

Happy Holidays to everyone!

New all time highs:   CCI, COG, SBAC
All time lows: ?
Pops:   NYX, NKE
Drops: BBBY, HLF, RIMM, YUM

 
Next week: Economic reports  
Markets close early on Monday, and all day Tuesday for Christmas.

Market Commentary

The coming week will probably see light trading, except maybe for some 'fiscal cliff' moves. The up-trend from late November is still intact.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ?...depends on the cliff!
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing near $88.66
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.45
Gold dropped again, closing near $1660
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $147.53
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.71

NEWS:
Nike shares pop on strong sales
Behind Apple’s Big Stock Decline
Mutual dislike as stock funds see record outflows
Munis take worst pounding since Meredith Whitney
How to invest for the aging-U.S. trend

2013 may look a lot like 2012
Is the Bond Market Starting to Fight the Fed?
Newsweek ends its 80-year print run with a hashtagged cover
2013 Outlook for Gold and Silver: Risk in Gold, the Devil’s Metal Shines
Japan's Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world

Stock Market Blog -Dec 16th

Kind of a flat week for the markets, except for AAPL, which continued its downward trajectory! With the holiday season upon us, I expect we'll see light trading, with maybe some 'fiscal cliff' related selling. To everyone's surprise, the Euro is showing strength and may be about to break out to new highs. Meanwhile the Yen is showing a lot of weakness. Also, the US Dollar has been dropping, which is usually good for stocks. The Fed announced more 'QE' this week...

New all time highs:   CRM, MPC, PPG, VMED
All time lows: ?
Pops:   BBY
Drops: BBY

Euro strength -about to break out? 135 maybe?
Weak Yen (below)

 
Next week: Economic reports  
Earnings: ORCL, FDX, NKE, RIMM

Market Commentary

Market volatility is very low (VIX), indicating an upside bias to the market. The S&P500 chart is also forming an inverted H&S pattern -another potential bullish signal. And the Euro looks like it's about to breakout to new highs -also bullish for the S&P500, because of the normally strong correlation (weaker US Dollar). Maybe we'll get a Christmas rally.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -bullish?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing near $86.73
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.31
Gold dropped, closing near $1697
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $148.34
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.56

NEWS:
Wall Street succumbs to Apple's fall, "cliff" uncertainty
Week Ahead: Manufacturing, Housing Data on Tap
Apple takes investors on a wild ride
5 reasons why Google has its mojo back
Central Banks: How They Are Ruling the Financial World
The Federal Reserve's Zombie Economy
Ray Dalio Thinks The Bond Bull Market Could Finally Turn In 2013
How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy

Stock Market Blog -Dec 2nd

The market drifted a little higher this week as retail sales seemed to be somewhat better than expected, otherwise it was kind of a slow week. Gold prices dropped a bit. For the most part, the market is waiting for some kind of news on a resolution for the 'fiscal cliff'. YUM dropped on a weak outlook for China.

New all time highs:   COST, CLX, GIS, MRC, LTD, PSX, UN, V -again
All time lows: 
Pops:  GMCR, 
Drops: KSS, TFM, TIF, YUM

Next week: Economic reports   Monthly Jobs report on Friday!

Market Commentary

The market may be rangebound till we get some clarity on the US fiscal situation. Likewise for the European situation. Volatility is very low, as is volume. Maybe the only tradable events this week will be the Jobs report, and earnings reports (AZO, LULU).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -pullback next?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $88.91
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.56
Gold dropped, closing near $1713
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $151.41
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 80.16

NEWS:
Stocks stuck on fiscal cliff treadmill
Geithner: No deal 'without rates going up'
Junk Bonds Are So Popular Now They're Dangerous
Indonesia: The newest BRIC?