Stock Market Blog -Mar 24th

The market stalled this week, seemingly on the Cyprus financial situation. We're on track however to finish this quarter as one of the best in recent memory for this market. What we've seen so far is a nice rally in both stocks and the Dollar (normally they move in opposite directions!), and the first extended drop we've seen in Bonds for a long time. We also saw a huge drop in the Yen, the Pound, and more recently the Euro.

Fedex and Oracle dropped after reporting earnings, while NKE rallied on good numbers.

New all time highs:   AMGN, CVX, DFS, HCA, HON, JNJ, NKE, TJX, TRV, VMED, etc.
All time lows: --
Pops: NKE,   -Drops:  FDX, LULU, ORCL, 

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports:  DG, MOS

Market Commentary

 
The market reversed direction a bit last week, as we head in to the end of the 1st quarter next week. We could see a correction take shape in Q2 after this extended rally. If we do get a correction, we'll see the VIX rally, and we might also see Bonds rally (TLT).

Are we due for a pullback here?

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -rally running out of steam?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $93.71
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.93
Gold was up, closing at $1606 -finally above 1600
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $143.62
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 82.53

NEWS:
Nike shares rise on strong 3Q earnings
Senate Passes $3.7 Trillion Budget, Its First in 4 Years
Bond crash dead ahead: tick, tick ... boom!
Are bond funds a ticking time bomb?
BlackBerry Z10 review: A noble failure

Precious Metals Dearer Than Ever 
Gold Can Still Break Through $2,000: Analysts
Chinese Solar Panel Giant Is Tainted by Bankruptcy
Cyprus endgame: What happens if its banks collapse?

Stock Market Blog -Mar 17th

The rally continues, as we approach the end of the 1st quarter. The S&P500 got to about 5 points away from its all time high, while the DOW has already taken out its high. The VIX (volatility index) is at an extreme low, a potential warning signal that this rally could fade any time soon.

GOOG lost some ground this week, after hitting $844 the previous week

New all time highs:    AXP, CVS, JNJ, DFS, DLPH, DTV, IBM, LYB, MMM, STZ, TRV, UTX, etc. 

All time lows: --
Pops:  , -Drops:  , 

Next week: Economic reports  Fed meeting...
Earnings reports:  FDX & ORCL (Wed), LULU, NKE (Thu)

Market Commentary

 
I continue to think the market could be putting in a top in this area as the S&P500 approaches its all time high. The risk here is in being long! Stocks and the Dollar have been rallying together, when they normally have an 'inverse' relationship -another potential sign of a correction.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -rally running out of steam?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $93.45
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.87
Gold was up, closing at $1592 -still below 1600
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $141.87
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 82.46

NEWS:
Will the Bull Market Survive to See its 5th Birthday?
Stock Rally Drags On, but Divergences Are Emerging
Economy Rolls Along, Despite Cuts and Taxes
Apple Estimates Cut as Samsung Unveils Galaxy S4
The Street Loves Google, but Can the Stock Hit $1,000?
Top bond fund managers batten down the hatches
If There’s No Inflation, Why Are Prices Up So Much?

In Spite of the Recovery, More Workers Are Borrowing From 401(k)s
JPMorgan’s Follies, for All to See
Gold Posts Second Weekly Gain
The Stars Are Aligning for Dollar Bulls
Euro Zone Agrees to 10 Billion Euro Bailout for Cyprus
Crumbling BRICs: Why You're Better Off Elsewhere
Do We Really Need Another Credit Score? Maybe.

Stock Market Blog -Mar 10th

The DOW and the Small Cap Russell 2000 continued to hit new all time highs this week, while the Dollar rallied, and Bonds dropped. The Yen, along with other currencies, continued to drop against the Dollar. A better than expected jobs report on Friday helped to keep the market up, with the unemployment rate dropping to 7.7%.

This weekly rally in stocks is now over 8 weeks old, so I expect it will take a break soon. A number of DOW stocks are also hitting new all time highs (charts below).

New all time highs:     NWSA, CBS, CELG, CVX, DIS, JNJ, HD, MMM, UTX, VMED, and more
All time lows: --
Pops:  CIEN, HRB     -Drops:  JCP, SKUL

Next week: Economic reports   Monthly & Quarterly Options expiration...
Earnings reports:   COST

DOW stocks acting like tech stocks!!

Market Commentary

 
I still think the market could be putting in a top in this area as the S&P500 approaches its all time high. The DOW has already taken out its high. We have Options expiration this week (monthly and quarterly), and the end of the 1st quarter is approaching. The VIX is approaching lows again. Stay long until it breaks?

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -the rally continues
OptionsMakeSense

 

  The USD/JPY rallies again! So much for a top...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing near $91.95
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.63
Gold closed near $1576 -still below 1600
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $141
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 82.73

NEWS:
Stock-Market Bulls Likely to Keep Running
The new market bubble
Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 2008
Retail Stocks Helped Propel Market Higher
JCP ‘Could Fail Very Quickly’: Cohen
Can the Apple Bear Be Killed?
Viral video shows how wealth is really distributed

Stock Market Blog -Mar 3rd

The market rebounded a bit from the prior week's drop, even with the Dollar rallying, and with no government  resolution on the 'sequester'.  Gold still seems to be in a downtrend, while Bonds have rallied a bit. The DOW is about 100 points away from an all time high, so I expect we will see that high again. probably this week. AAPL continues to spiral down, while GOOG is now hitting all time highs. Maybe Google will be the new Apple this year? LNKD is also hitting new all time highs.

New all time highs:     CRM, COG, CELG, GILD, GIS, ETN, LNKD, MPC, VMED, etc.
All time lows: --
Pops:  CRM,    -Drops:  ISRG, JCP

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly Jobs report on Friday
Earnings reports:   SPLS, PETM

Market Commentary

 
The market could be putting in a top in this area as it approaches an all time high. After the euphoria, there's usually a pullback. We still have market headwinds from Europe, the effects of the sequester, unemployment, etc.  This month however also marks the end of the 1st quarter, so we could see it close out with some nice gains.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...getting ready for a bigger pullback?
OptionsMakeSense

  The USD/JPY could be forming a top here

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $90.59
Natural Gas was up slightly, closing near $3.42
Gold dropped, closing near $1580 -still below 1600
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $146.12
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 82.36

NEWS:
Dow Likely to Bust Through Record—Then What?
Forget Large-Caps: Small-Caps Are a Better Opportunity
Cramer: 5 Dow Dynamos Should Drive Bull Further
Home Buyers Are Back, but Where Are the Houses?

Best Stock Market Indicator Ever:
Treasurys Rise on Spending Cuts, Europe Woes
Euro Hovers Near 2-1/2 Month Low, Dollar Firm
Gold Ends Above $1,578, Setting Grim Milestone