Stock Market Blog -Dec 29th

The market powered up once more, though on light 'holiday' volume. The indices will close out the year with hefty gains, with the Nasdaq leading the way, followed by the Small-cap Russell 2000. Here's a composite look at the DOW stocks, IBM being the main loser for the year.

The US Dollar gained significantly against the Yen, as well as other currencies (GPB, AUD, CAD, etc.)
China and India were down slightly for the year, while Brazil was down a lot.
The Nikkei (Japan) closed at its highest level in over a decade.

Commodities/Futures:
Gold turned in a poor performance this year, after a decade of solid gains.
Crude Oil was up and down, and ended mostly unchanged for the year, around $100.
The 30 year Bond sold off all year, and lost ground for the first time in a long time.
Coffee, like Gold, saw relentless selling all year -time to buy!
Corn, Wheat, and Sugar also sold off all year. And Soybeans.

New all time highs:    AMZN, AXP, CMCSA, CVD, DIS, DDD, FDX, GOOG, MMM, STX, XOM, UPS, UTX, V, and more...  TWTR saw some big gains last week.
All time lows:   

Pops:  , Drops:   

Next week:  Economic reports ,

Earnings: 

Some of the tech performers in 2013

Market Commentary

The rally continues, probably through the end of the year, and then some.  Because it is so overbought, we will probably see a correction soon. Another holiday week of light trading ahead, with maybe a pickup in volume after the holiday. Take a break!

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -new all time high again!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing over $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged
Gold was up a bit
The 30 year Bond was down
The US Dollar was down a bit

NEWS:

Stocks: Break out the champagne!
Unemployment benefits for 1.3 million expire
China debt grows to $4.6 trillion
China hands 'death sentence' to 75% of solar cell makers

Stock Market Blog -Dec 22nd

The Fed tapered on Wednesday, and the market rallied! Everyone however expected a drop when the Fed made that announcement -so much for market predictions from the 'experts'. We also got a better GDP number this week.

Meanwhile Gold fell below $1200, and Oil rallied to close near $100 again.

New all time highs:    AXP, AMZN, ARMH, ALXN, CMCSA, CVS, CSX/ODFL, DIA, DDD, EXPE, ESRX, FDX, FL, GOOG, HLF, HIMX, MMM, STX, TSCO, V, UA, UPS, and more...
All time lows:   

Pops:  RHT, Drops:   

Next week:  Economic reports ,

Earnings:

Market Commentary

Last week I said "If the market continues to act like it has on previous pullbacks, we will see it rally from this level". And rally it did! This up-trend continues to baffle the bears (and even some bulls). If you are baffled, one of the easiest ways to get an idea of when the rally has peaked is to use a pair of moving averages, and look for a cross. Which moving average you use depends on your time frame. For example if you are using a daily chart, maybe the 20 and 50 period averages could be used (chart example below).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -new all time high again!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $99.32 -approaching $100
Natural Gas was up a bit, closing near $4.41
Gold dropped, closing at $1203
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $130.09
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 80.75

NEWS:

Ho! Ho! Ho! Dow, S&P end at record highs
Wow! U.S. economy revved up
The 5 Hottest Tech Stocks of 2013
5 Stocks That Could Double in 2014

'Massive correction' for stocks and Treasurys in 2014: Pro

How contrarians got it wrong in 2013

Stumbling Toward the Next Crash
Report: Chicago's Pension Woes Worse Than Detroit's
BlackBerry's brutal 2013 keeps getting worse
QE: The greatest subsidy to the rich ever?

Stock Market Blog -Dec 15th

The market pulled back this week as was expected by many. Next week we could see it resume the up-trend (or not), as the last Fed meeting for the year winds down on Wednesday. There is so much anticipation for this meeting that it could turn out to be a big yawn. We also get earnings next week from NKE, FDX, and ORCL, and finally Options expiration for the month and the quarter on Friday. TWTR saw a huge rally this week.

Futures: Bonds have been crushed this year, along with Gold, and to some extent Oil. Nat Gas on the other hand has rallied nicely. Coffee sank, as it did the prior year -time for a rally I think. Sugar, like Coffee, has been in a downward spiral too.

Coffee and Sugar have been crushed over the past 2 years!

New all time highs:    ADBE, KORS, NLSN, TWTR, V
All time lows:   FIO

Pops:  MA, SYY      Drops:   ORCL

Next week:  Economic reports , Fed meeting

Earnings:  DFS, FDX, NKE, ORCL, WAG

Market Commentary

The Budget talks came and went almost without notice! So much for that market moving event. Next week's market moving event will be the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Also the final Quarterly Options expiration for 2013 on Friday. From a 'technical' standpoint, the S&P500 is at a support level here and could break in either direction. If the market continues to act like it has on previous pullbacks, we will see it rally from this level.

MA announced a 10 for 1 stock split this week -could this be the first of more to come? AAPL, AMZN, CMG, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN?

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -will it bounce back up to the top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $96.60 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.35
Gold recovered a bit, closing at $1234
The 30 year Bond continued to drop, closing near $129.65
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.37

NEWS:

U.S. Stocks Post Worst Week Since August on Fed Concern
Why Fed could rock market no matter what it does
After massive rally, will shorts finally win?
Share prices are soaring, but splits aren't coming back
Forget Apple, Google…this is Nasdaq 2.0
Facebook to be added to S&P 500

VIX Trader Buys $5.1 Million in Calls to Bet on 50% Increase
There is no bubble; markets just don’t work anymore
Budget Deal Passed By House, Heads To Senate
Experts predict a gold bounce soon—here’s why

Stock Market Blog -Dec 8th

The market was down all week, but recovered on Friday after a better than expected Jobs report. The jobless rate fell to 7.0%, the lowest since 2008. Looks like we'll close out the year with some nice gains, barring any surprises from the Fed or any Budget issues next week.  Bonds and Gold on the other hand will close out the year with significant losses.

New all time highs:    CELG, CLX, CSX, DG, GM, GOOG, LNG, NSC, PSX, STX, WDC
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:  TSLA ,      Drops:   JCP, KKD, SHLD, ULTA

Next week:  Economic reports , 

Earnings:  AZO, LULU, COST

Market Commentary

The rally finally got a pause this week. We'll see if its the beginning of a correction or just a another small dip. The bigger trend is definitely still to the up side. We might see some concerns reflected in the market about the Dec 13th budget deadline next week.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -back up to the top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $97.65 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.11
Gold dropped, closing at $1229
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $130.37
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 80.31

NEWS:

Now where do stocks go? Here's a hint: Ho ho ho
El-Erian: Jobs report is even better than you think
Investors brace for big dip in stocks
Dow 16,000 Was a Lot of Fun While It Lasted
Six reasons why 2014 is the year the economy clicks
5 reasons the markets will rally again in 2014
Will Google soon pass Exxon in market value?

What Keeps Bill Gross (and me) up at Night?
After Detroit, Who Will Cut City Pensions Next?
Lesson from Detroit: Get ready for more muni mess
Why Japan May Matter More Than Tapering
China becomes world's largest gold consumer

Stock Market Blog -Dec 1st

The market continued a little higher this week, but with light trading and very little action. Most traders are looking for some kind of pause or pullback at these lofty levels. The NASDAQ finally closed over the 4000 level for the first time since the dot com bubble era! It's still far from the highs seen at that time though (chart below).

New all time highs:    AET, AMZN, AXP, CVS, DAL, M, MMM, NKE, TIF, UPS, 
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:  HPQ ,      Drops:   NUAN

Next week:  Economic reports 

Market Commentary

The rally continues... same comments as last week, and the week before!   "Everyone has been expecting a correction, so maybe that's why we haven't seen one! Maybe next week -maybe not. For the trend traders, stick with the trend. For the contrarians, hang in there! Volatility is very low, so there are some potential Options opportunities in the VIX products, or in shorting the market indexes using Option spreads (SPY, SSO, IWM, etc). Or maybe cheap, out of the money Calendar Put spreads on the indexes.

The NASDAQ 100 is working its way up to the 2000 high. 

The S&P500 got back up there several years ago.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -all time high again!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was down, closing near $92.72 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.95
Gold was up, closing at $1250
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $132.21
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.65

NEWS:

Stocks up for 3rd month; S&P tallies longest weekly win streak since 2004
Nasdaq hits 4,000: Same number, different world
Playing with fire? Margin debt most since crisis
Why you should always buy on Black Friday

Yes, Virginia, Apple is giving discounts
Five economic trends to be thankful for
Moody upgrades Greece's debt rating