Stock Market Update -Jul 26th

The markets pushed higher again this week, breaking out past the early January high (see chart). Next stop on the S&P 500 could be the 1000 level from last November. Better than expected earnings reports continued to drive the market higher every day over the past two weeks (except for Microsoft and Amazon reports last Thursday).

Once again, the number for new unemployment claims was below 600,000, this time at 554,000; also, seven more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices rallied further to just over $68 per barrel. Gold closed the week around $953, while the US Dollar was down again for the week. Bond prices were also down for the week as stocks rallied. Sugar prices continue to rise.


Next week earnings continue to roll in, XOM and CVX included. This will give us a clue as to where the energy sector is headed. The US will be borrowing a massive amount again next week by issuing Bonds and Notes (over $200 billion). We could see bonds rise in value, and stocks dip as a result. The GDP report is also due on Friday and could be a market mover.

Market analysis: We are clearly in a strong 'up' trend (2 weeks non-stop), and could see a short pullback before resuming a run to 1000 on the S&P 500.

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No Exit for Ben
Some Weekend Thoughts By John Mauldin

Stock Market Update -Jul 19th

Good earnings reports from the big banks and from technology companies pushed the market back up nicely this week. This caught most people by surprise. Now we are back at the top of the range, with a slew of earnings reports coming next week.

Once again, the number for new unemployment claims dropped below 600,000 to 522,000. This number could be somewhat misleading though because it is a seasonally 'adjusted' number. Four more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices recovered to just over $63 per barrel as the dollar fell in value again. Gold closed the week around $937, while the US Dollar was down for the week. Bond prices were down again for the week.


Next week watch for more earnings reports, including AAPL, MSFT, and AXP.

Market analysis: Well, we got the earnings reports, and in a surprise move they lifted the markets out of the downtrend last week. Now we need to get past this resistance 'top' formed in early June if the rally is to continue.

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Hedging Your ETF Bets

Stock Market Update -Jul 12th

The downtrend in the market continued this week (see chart). We are hovering around the 880 level on the S&P500 that I mentioned last week. The coming week's earnings will help to decide whether we break down below this level, or whether we bounce back up. GM emerged from bankruptcy this week, a lot earlier than first expected.

We got some encouraging news from the unemployment data this week. For the first time in almost six months, the number for new claims dropped below 600,000. Every week I've been reporting this figure over 600,000, but this week it came in at 565,000. We also saw another bank shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Commodities continue their downward slide. Oil prices continued to drop, closing just under $60 per barrel. Gold closed the week around $912, while the US Dollar is still in a trading range. Last week I said "We could see oil, gold, and other commodities take a tumble from here".

Bond prices were up again, as stocks fell (how do you sell billions in bonds? ...just sink the stock market!)


Next week we get get earnings reports from some of the big banks (BAC, C, JPM, GS), as well as IBM, INTC, GOOG, and GE. We also get a few economic reports, so we could see more volatility, and perhaps get a better sense of whether the market will continue to head down.

Market analysis: The downtrend is in place now, with uncertain times ahead. This would be a good time to either hedge your positions, or exit on any bounce. Meanwhile, the debt clock keeps ticking (see left icon), now over $11.5 trillion!

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AIG Plans Millions More in Bonuses

Stock Market Update -Jul 5th

We continue to see red in all sectors! The market seems to be headed back down again -we'll see how far this pullback takes us.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again. The monthly payroll report on Thursday was a big disappointment, pushing the unemployment rate up to 9.5%. This week seven more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices saw a sharp drop down to around $66 per barrel. Gold closed the week at $931, while the US Dollar is still bouncing up and down in a trading range. We could see oil, gold, and other commodities take a tumble from here. Bond prices were up, as stocks fell.


Next week kicks off the quarterly earnings season again, with Alcoa and Chevron among those scheduled to report.

Market analysis: The second quarter is now over, with the Technology sector and the NASDAQ leading the gains for the year (see chart below). The market looks like it has started to reverse course and head down, but with a flood of earnings reports coming in the next few weeks, anything could happen. We could see some initial support around 880 on the S&P 500.


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Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike

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India Joins Russia, China in Questioning U.S. Dollar Dominance
China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
Great Depression vs. 'Great Recession'
Depressions Take Time

Stock Market Update -Jun 28th

We saw some more selling in the market this week, with the energy sector leading the way (see chart below). However, Thursday's gains reversed some of the selling. The quarter ends this coming week, and we will begin to see earnings reports coming in after the 4th of July holiday. This earnings season will probably tell us whether the recent market rally will hold up.

It sounds like a broken record, but new Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and five more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices are holding up around $69 per barrel so far. Gold was up for the week, while the US Dollar was more or less flat. Bond prices recovered, as the huge auction of new debt went well.


Next week is a short week with the markets closed on Friday for the 4th of July holiday. The monthly payroll and unemployment report will be released on Thursday -sometimes a market mover. Otherwise it could be a quiet week.

Market analysis: We are still chopping around in a trading range, as we await earnings reports after the holiday weekend. The up-trend from March 9th has stalled for now.

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Stock Market Update -Jun 21st

This week we're seeing red in the market as a pullback is now underway (in my opinion), after having topped out at the January high (see chart). We could see a bigger pullback in the coming weeks.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and three more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Commodity prices are falling. Oil closed around $69 per barrel. We could finally see a pullback in oil prices at this level. Gold closed around $934, and the US Dollar was more or less flat for the week. Bond prices fell somewhat. We could see Bond prices slide some more as we see a record auction in Treasury Bonds next week ($104 billion).


Next week will include a Fed meeting, and a couple of economic reports.

Market analysis: This week's pullback could be indicative of a larger pullback to come. We may get a bounce following last week's drop, only to be followed by a larger drop, so be cautious. If RIMM and POT are any indication, look out below (see charts).


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Calif. jobless rate climbs to record 11.5 percent
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Has the 401(k) failed?

Stock Market Update -Jun 14th

The market was basically flat this week (S&P 500), still holding above the January high (see chart below). The DOW is not quite there yet, though it did close above the 2008 'year end' value. New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again (601,000), though the trend finally seems to be reversing a bit.

Commodities: Oil prices closed higher again, around $72 per barrel. Gold prices fell to around $940, while the US Dollar was down for the week. The 30 year Bond prices recovered a bit.

Next week we get a number of economic reports, including the PPI and CPI, and housing starts. Friday is expiration day for options and futures, and also near the end of the quarter, which could add to the volatility. RIMM also reports earnings on Thursday -will it reverse or push higher? Also reporting are FedEx and Best Buy.

On a side note, this week Blackrock purchased Barclay's investment business for $13.5 billion. This now makes Blackrock the biggest asset management firm with $2.7 trillion under management ($2,700,000,000,000)! What ever happened to 'too big to fail'? Isn't that what got us in trouble with firms like Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG, Citigroup, etc...

Market analysis: Still no clear short-term direction at this point -options expiration on Friday could move the markets in either direction; many traders are still looking for a reversal at this level.

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Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates

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Mortgage Rates in U.S. Rise to Highest Since November
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 as Bank Seizures Loom
Theme park firm Six Flags files for bankruptcy

Stock Market Update -Jun 7th

The market was up nicely this week, finally surpassing the previous peak seen in early January (see chart below). The payroll report on Friday was much better than expected as far as job losses, though the unemployment rate is now up to 9.4%, the highest in 25 years.

GM filed for bankruptcy on Monday, with the government now owning 60% of the company as part of a restructuring plan.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and another bank was shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to rise, closing around $68 per barrel. Gold prices fell to $960, as the US Dollar turned up this week. Bond prices continued its steep drop in prices (higher long term interest rates!).


GM and Citigroup were removed from the DOW index, and replaced by Cisco and Travelers.

Market analysis: Still no clear short-term direction at this point -we could see a continuation of last week's up-trend, though many 'traders' are looking for a reversal at this point.

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Our Exploding Deficit Will Kill The Economy

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