Stock Market Update -Aug 16th

The market finally pulled back a little this week. The consumer confidence report on Friday, showing a lack of confidence, helped to push the market lower. We are seeing a lot of red on the sector chart for this week (see below), though we seem to be stuck in a trading range so far this month.

New Unemployment claims were below 600,000 again, this time at 558,000, still a big number. Also, five more banks were shut down by regulators, including Colonial, the biggest bank failure for 2009 (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell to just under $68 per barrel (looks like that double top I mentioned last week might be playing out). Gold closed the week around $949, the US Dollar didn't change much for the week, and Bond prices rallied. Sugar hit a record high again.


Next week we get a few economic reports. Earnings season is pretty much winding down at this point.

Market analysis: This week we'll see if the market continues to stall out at this level, or if it regains some strength. Friday is options expiration day for August, so we could hang around these levels all week (1000 on the S&P500 and 2000 on the NASDAQ).

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Something Is Rotten In The State Of Wall Street

Stock Market Update -Aug 9th

This week the market was up again, boosted this time by a better than expected jobs report on Friday, which showed the unemployment rate dropping from 9.6% to 9.4%. The S&P500 closed solidly over the 1000 mark, and the Nasdaq closed right at the 2000 mark. The DOW closed at 9370. The bears continue to lose this battle!

New unemployment claims were below 600,000 again, this time at 550,000, and three more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices rallied to just over $71 per barrel (maybe we'll see a double top at this level as the US dollar tries to recover a bit). Gold closed the week around $955, while the US Dollar recovered some losses for the week, and Bond prices dropped. Sugar hit a record high.

As if we didn't have enough debt already (see the debt clock on the left), the Treasury Secretary now wants to raise the US credit limit again! Take a look at the debt clock again and you'll see why -about a million dollars is added every 10 seconds.


Next week there is a Fed meeting/announcement on Wednesday, along with some more earnings reports (including Walmart).

Market analysis: We continue to move higher, though we did see a pause mid-week. The financials also saw a strong rally over the past two weeks. It's anyones guess as to whether the rally will continue this week. It's a good level to take some profits and/or to protect your positions, since we have been up almost non-stop since early March.

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Inside G.E., a Little Bit of Enron

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Biggest companies: Shrinking giants
Clunker Cash Is Anything But Smart Money

Stock Market Update -Aug 2nd

The market was up again this week, helped by a better than expected GDP report, though sector performance was mixed (see chart below). Many are expecting a pause or pullback near this level, though the bears continue to be disappointed throughout this rally!

New unemployment claims fell below 600,000 again, this time at 584,000, and five more banks were shut down by regulators (list). -big Texas bank on verge of failure.

Commodities: Oil prices rallied further to just over $69 per barrel. Gold closed the week around $954, while the US Dollar was down to the low point for the year.

Bond prices were up for the week as the stock rally seemed to pause. The huge treasury auctions this past week were somewhat disappointing, possibly indicating less willingness to continue to loan hundreds of billions to the US.

Next week we get more earnings reports for the quarter, along with the all important monthly payroll and unemployment report on Friday. On a side note, Citi shares have been trading huge volume this week of over 1 billion shares daily!

Market analysis: The rally continues, though it could be starting to lose some steam. We closed out July with a very strong gain, the best performance in 20 years for the DOW. There is no clear direction for the week ahead, though my bias would be for a pullback. We saw a big drop in the Shanghai market this week, possibly indicating some more weakness ahead in the China market.

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Exxon Mobil earnings fall 66% to $4.1 billion
Chevron's profit plunges 71%
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The Beginning of the End of the Recession?
The recovery puzzle's missing piece
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Firefox browser hits its billionth download

Stock Market Update -Jul 26th

The markets pushed higher again this week, breaking out past the early January high (see chart). Next stop on the S&P 500 could be the 1000 level from last November. Better than expected earnings reports continued to drive the market higher every day over the past two weeks (except for Microsoft and Amazon reports last Thursday).

Once again, the number for new unemployment claims was below 600,000, this time at 554,000; also, seven more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices rallied further to just over $68 per barrel. Gold closed the week around $953, while the US Dollar was down again for the week. Bond prices were also down for the week as stocks rallied. Sugar prices continue to rise.


Next week earnings continue to roll in, XOM and CVX included. This will give us a clue as to where the energy sector is headed. The US will be borrowing a massive amount again next week by issuing Bonds and Notes (over $200 billion). We could see bonds rise in value, and stocks dip as a result. The GDP report is also due on Friday and could be a market mover.

Market analysis: We are clearly in a strong 'up' trend (2 weeks non-stop), and could see a short pullback before resuming a run to 1000 on the S&P 500.

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No Exit for Ben
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Stock Market Update -Jul 19th

Good earnings reports from the big banks and from technology companies pushed the market back up nicely this week. This caught most people by surprise. Now we are back at the top of the range, with a slew of earnings reports coming next week.

Once again, the number for new unemployment claims dropped below 600,000 to 522,000. This number could be somewhat misleading though because it is a seasonally 'adjusted' number. Four more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices recovered to just over $63 per barrel as the dollar fell in value again. Gold closed the week around $937, while the US Dollar was down for the week. Bond prices were down again for the week.


Next week watch for more earnings reports, including AAPL, MSFT, and AXP.

Market analysis: Well, we got the earnings reports, and in a surprise move they lifted the markets out of the downtrend last week. Now we need to get past this resistance 'top' formed in early June if the rally is to continue.

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Hedging Your ETF Bets

Stock Market Update -Jul 12th

The downtrend in the market continued this week (see chart). We are hovering around the 880 level on the S&P500 that I mentioned last week. The coming week's earnings will help to decide whether we break down below this level, or whether we bounce back up. GM emerged from bankruptcy this week, a lot earlier than first expected.

We got some encouraging news from the unemployment data this week. For the first time in almost six months, the number for new claims dropped below 600,000. Every week I've been reporting this figure over 600,000, but this week it came in at 565,000. We also saw another bank shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Commodities continue their downward slide. Oil prices continued to drop, closing just under $60 per barrel. Gold closed the week around $912, while the US Dollar is still in a trading range. Last week I said "We could see oil, gold, and other commodities take a tumble from here".

Bond prices were up again, as stocks fell (how do you sell billions in bonds? ...just sink the stock market!)


Next week we get get earnings reports from some of the big banks (BAC, C, JPM, GS), as well as IBM, INTC, GOOG, and GE. We also get a few economic reports, so we could see more volatility, and perhaps get a better sense of whether the market will continue to head down.

Market analysis: The downtrend is in place now, with uncertain times ahead. This would be a good time to either hedge your positions, or exit on any bounce. Meanwhile, the debt clock keeps ticking (see left icon), now over $11.5 trillion!

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Stock Market Update -Jul 5th

We continue to see red in all sectors! The market seems to be headed back down again -we'll see how far this pullback takes us.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again. The monthly payroll report on Thursday was a big disappointment, pushing the unemployment rate up to 9.5%. This week seven more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices saw a sharp drop down to around $66 per barrel. Gold closed the week at $931, while the US Dollar is still bouncing up and down in a trading range. We could see oil, gold, and other commodities take a tumble from here. Bond prices were up, as stocks fell.


Next week kicks off the quarterly earnings season again, with Alcoa and Chevron among those scheduled to report.

Market analysis: The second quarter is now over, with the Technology sector and the NASDAQ leading the gains for the year (see chart below). The market looks like it has started to reverse course and head down, but with a flood of earnings reports coming in the next few weeks, anything could happen. We could see some initial support around 880 on the S&P 500.


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Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike

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Stock Market Update -Jun 28th

We saw some more selling in the market this week, with the energy sector leading the way (see chart below). However, Thursday's gains reversed some of the selling. The quarter ends this coming week, and we will begin to see earnings reports coming in after the 4th of July holiday. This earnings season will probably tell us whether the recent market rally will hold up.

It sounds like a broken record, but new Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and five more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices are holding up around $69 per barrel so far. Gold was up for the week, while the US Dollar was more or less flat. Bond prices recovered, as the huge auction of new debt went well.


Next week is a short week with the markets closed on Friday for the 4th of July holiday. The monthly payroll and unemployment report will be released on Thursday -sometimes a market mover. Otherwise it could be a quiet week.

Market analysis: We are still chopping around in a trading range, as we await earnings reports after the holiday weekend. The up-trend from March 9th has stalled for now.

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