Stock Market Blog -Oct 17th

This was another 'up' week for the market. After reporting earnings, INTC, JPM, and APOL sold off, but GOOG rocketed up $60! Financials were weak on concerns regarding foreclosures (BAC, COF, etc).

New all time highs: AAPL, AMZN, AAP, CTSH, MCD & YUM, MO, GLD & SLV & SLW
New all time lows: QID, SDS, TZA -leveraged market indexes!

New weekly unemployment claims rose to 462,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings season gets in to full swing, with the following companies among those reporting: (expect market volatality)

Mon	AAPL, IBM, C, HAL, PBR, VMW
Tue	BAC, KO, GS, JNJ, EMC, ISRG, YHOO
Wed	BA, BLK, MO, NFLX, UTX, WFC
Thu	AMZN, AXP, BIDU, CAT, MCD, MS, FCX, T, TRV, UPS,
Fri	F, VZ

All eyes are on AAPL, due to report on Monday.

Market commentary: The market continues to rally, so stay with the trend until it shows a definite turn. This will probably come when the US dollar reverses its decline. Maybe this week?


Of the major indexes, the 'technology laden' Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) is the only one that has taken out the April top (see chart below).


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $81 per barrel. We may be at a top here.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing at a new low around $3.50. We may be at a bottom.
Gold hit all time highs once again, closing around $1371. Getting close to a top!
The US Dollar index was down, closing around 77.25. Getting close to a bottom!
The 30 year Bond dropped, as stocks went up, closing just over $131.

Silver prices also rocketed up this week.
Commodity prices continue to rise as the US Dollar falls.

News:
U.S. stocks end mostly up after Google earnings
Google tops $600 a share
Core prices lowest in decades as CPI edges up
Apple earnings expected to blow out on iPhone

Mozilo settles Countrywide fraud case at $67.5 million
Fixed-rate mortgages fall to record low
In charts: Foreclosures, inflation and more
49-year core inflation low
Deficit tops $1 trillion second year in a row
Social Security benefits won’t rise in 2011
Know when to dump a losing fund

Stock Market Blog -Oct 10th

The market rallied again this week, though some tech stocks saw surprising declines (EQIX, VMW, CTXS, CRM, FFIV, etc.).

The much anticipated jobs report on Friday was a disappointment, but the market held up, with the DOW closing just over 11,000. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6%. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to slide.

The Yen and the Euro continue to gain against the US dollar.

New all time highs: IBM, MO, NKE, YUM
All time lows: DXD, SDS, TZA, QID -leveraged market indexes!

New unemployment claims fell to 445,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings season kicks off once again with the following companies reporting: INTC, GOOG, JPM, GE

Market commentary: The market continues to rally, though many traders continue to try to put on short positions. Until we see a real turn on the charts, the 'long' traders will win out over those that are short! Maybe after options expiration this week?

The US dollar decline has been driving some of this rally, and is becoming extended on the down-side. Keep your eye on the dollar; also keep your eye on bonds, which have been rising with stocks -this is the opposite of the normal correlation.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $83 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing around $3.60.
Gold hit all time highs again, closing around $1344.
The US Dollar index continued down, closing around 77.50.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing just over $134.

News:
U.S. stocks rally; Dow closes above 11,000
Jobs Drop by 95,000 in September, Unemployment Rate Unchanged
Unemployment claims drop for 4th time in 5 weeks
Consumer bankruptcy filings climb 11%
Equinix Stock Obliterated
Intel, AMD to kick off ‘choppy’ earnings season
Google seen reporting sharp profit, sales gains
It's official: Android is now the most popular smartphone OS
Gold hits new record after Japan cuts rates
Corn rallies to two-year high after crop forecast

Stock Market Blog -Oct 3rd

This week the market was flat, though we closed out the month of September with huge gains. Most people were expecting September to be a losing month. The US Dollar continued its decline, while Gold continued to rally. Oil was up as well.

GMCR and SAY prices plummeted this week!

New all time highs: GLD & SLV! Also CMI, CTSH, GDX, IBM, SLW, TTM, YUM.


New unemployment claims fell to 453,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). On Friday we'll get the all important monthly jobs report. Also earnings season kicks off once again with Alcoa reporting on Thursday.

Market commentary: The market seems to be stalling at these levels. Next week we start off a potentially volatile month and another round of quarterly earnings. We got a nice rally with the last round of earnings in July. Maybe we'll see a repeat performance. We've broken the downtrend channel that started in May, and it's possible we are now starting a new uptrend channel.

Options expiration in 2 weeks. The market could stay up and foil the bears again!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rocketed up, closing near $81.50 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly flat, closing just under $4.00.
Gold closed at an all time high again, around $1316.
The US Dollar index continued down, closing just over 78.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing just over $133.

Silver is at 30 year highs!

News:
Dollar Continues 4-Month Slide, Hits 6-Month Low Against Euro
Biggest Surprises This Quarter: Priceline Up 97%
Get ready for an epic bull market
How one automated trade led to stock market flash crash
Rates on fixed-rate mortgages fall
Corporations leveraging up at record pace
Banks Keep Failing, No End in Sight
Gold is the final refuge against universal currency debasement

Stock Market Blog -Sep 26th

We closed out the week with a big rally on Friday. September looks like it will be a good month after all (seems like the bears lost this round). This week felt like 1999 again, as we saw big rallies in tech stocks like AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, NFLX, PCLN, and QCOM.

New all time highs: AAPL, CMG, DTV, FFIV, NFLX, AMZN, BIDU, MO, MVL, NKE, PRGO,RAX SLW, and GLD & SLV, ANV!

All time lows: QID

Shares in ADBE plummeted this week.
Blockbuster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Commodities are still rallying!


New unemployment claims were up this week to 4650,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). On Friday we get the all import monthly jobs report. This week's reports also include a GDP number.

Market commentary: Looks like we did get a continuation of the recent rally that I mentioned in last week's post. We've been in rally mode almost non-stop since September 1st, so I expect a pullback at sometime, probably after we close out September next week.

Looking for high yield? Take a look at: PFF, HYG, JNK, maybe NLY?

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $76.50 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly flat, closing just under $4.00.
Gold closed at an all time high again, around $1296.
The US Dollar index was down, closing under 80!
The 30 year Bond saw little net change, closing just under $132.

News:
U.S. stocks rally to score fourth week of gains
Longest U.S. Slump Since '30s Ended in June '09, Group Says
Apple clobbers the competition
Blockbuster files for Chapter 11
How Netflix (and Blockbuster) Killed Blockbuster
Gold ends at record high, taps $1,300
U.S. retirement income deficit: $6.6 trillion

Stock Market Blog -Sep 19th

The market rallied a bit higher this week. We made it to the 1130 top on the S&P500 (see blog posts on Sep 5th, 12th). Now its decision time -will the market continue to go up, or reverse like it did the last time it hit 1130? No one really knows. The NASDAQ is already a little higher than its previous high, but not by much. Gold closed at an all time high this week.

ORCL continued a nice run up on high volume after reporting earnings; RIMM was also up after earnings.

New all time highs: CEO, CMI, DTV, FFIV, INTU, SAN, YUM, and GLD, SLW

Commodities continue to rally in the background!


New unemployment claims fell again this week to 450,000 (chart).
This week, six more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). There is a Fed meeting on Tuesday, along with several housing reports during the week (All eyes on housing this week). ADBE, GIS, and NKE report earnings next week.

Market commentary: This week may tell us the next trend in the market, now that the S&P is at the prior high of 1130. September also marks the end of the 3rd quarter, and the year end for many mutual funds, so really the market action for the next two weeks is anyone's guess. I'm leaning toward a continuation of the recent rallly, perhaps after a small pullback.

Want to invest in a market that's going up? Take a look at EWM...

Want high yield? look at:

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were down, closing just under $74 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly flat, closing near $4.00.
Gold closed at an all time high, around $1276.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 82.
The 30 year Bond saw little net change, closing just under $131 1/2.

News:
Wall Street ends week up, awaits Fed meeting
U.S. Stock Market Could Go Either Direction, Depending On Earnings Reports
3 Bears Threatening the New Goldilocks Economy
Americans struggle to regain their shrunken wealth
U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record for Third Time in Five Months

Japan Intervenes in Forex Market for First Time in 6 Years
Bank of Japan Intervention: What Happened Last Time? What's Next?
China's consumer price index jump 3.5%
Gold prices set record high on economic worries
Will Silver Now Take the Lead?
iPad Cannibalizing Half of Best Buy's Laptop Sales?

Stock Market Blog -Sep 12th

The market rallied a little further this week, though on light volume. Kind of a boring week.

New all time highs: BIDU, DTV, GMCR, NFLX, MO, YUM

...and the debt clock just passed the $13.5 trillion mark!


New unemployment claims fell again this week to 451,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: Economic reports list. Friday marks options expiration for the 3rd quarter. Reporting earnings next week are ORCL and RIMM.

Market commentary: Looks like we 'are' heading back up to the previous swing high of 1130 on the S&P500 (see last week's commentary). This is options expiration week, also for the 3rd quarter, so expect anything. I believe the rally will continue. Bonds continued to fall.

Want to invest in a market that's going up? Take a look at EWM...

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $76.50 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly flat, closing just under $4.00.
Gold lost some ground, closing around $1246. We could see a new high next week.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 82.
The 30 year Bond fell again, closing just under $130.

News:
El-Erian Says Bond Inflows Bad Sign for Economy
The long road to deflation for stocks
Subprime 2.0 Is Coming Soon to a Suburb Near You
How GM Made $30 Billion Appear Out of Thin Air
Central Banks Leading New Gold Rush

Stock Market Blog -Sep 5th

We got an unexpected rally in the market this week, as some of the economic reports were better than expected. Unemployment however moved up to 9.6%

Commodities also rallied this week -Coffee, Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, and Silver

New all time highs: AAP, AZO, AGG, CMI, CRM, DLTR, ED, FFIV, MCD, SLW.


New unemployment claims fell to 472,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: Economic reports list. It is a short week, with the Labor Day holiday on Monday.
9 Option Trades for Labor Day

Market commentary: We never made it all the way down to the July low on the indexes (except for the Russelll 2000 -IWM). Instead, the market rallied three days in a row this week, breaking the short term down-trend, and starting September off with a bang.

Lets see if it continues through the month; we didn't get much volume on this rally. There is a good chance we will now head back up to the previous swing high of 1130 on the S&P500.

Gold & silver continue to move up.
Bonds sold off (chart below).


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing near $75 per barrel.
Natural Gas recovered as I expected, closing just under $4.00.
Gold rallied, closing around $1249. We could see a new high next week.
The US Dollar index dropped, closing around 82.
The 30 year Bond fell as equities rallied, closing just under $133.

News:
The September Rally Continues!
Will the Stock Market Rally This Fall?
Stocks have worst August since 2001
Back to the Future for Dividend and Bond Yields
Could investors fleeing stocks become a lost generation?
Why the U.S. economy is weak
Seven lean years: No recovery till 2016
The Lost Decade Has Passed Us

SEC Declines to Sue Moody's Over Inflated Ratings
FDIC: 829 problematic banks in second quarter
Gold, silver forge ahead, post solid monthly gains
Gold Stocks - the Long-Term Perspective
Silver settles at two-year high; gold ends lower
J.P. Morgan To Shut Prop Trading Desks
Goldman to Close Prop-Trading Unit
Obama Marks Formal End of U.S. Combat in Iraq
Israel's Huge Oil and Gas Discovery

Stock Market Blog -Aug 29th

The DOW closed below 10,000 on Thursday this week, but recovered on Friday. The market is still in a downtrend, with all sectors down for the month (see chart below).

New all time highs: DLTR, MCD, PAR, INTU, CRM, EGO, SLW,

New unemployment claims fell back below the 500,000 level to 473,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: We get the usual Economic reports, along with the widely watched, monthly jobs report on Friday (week ahead)

Market commentary: Looks like we could still drop down to test the early July low, though we saw a nice rally on Friday. We'll need to see some follow-through to get bullish again. The jobs report on Friday could finally help push the market into a new trend.

Bonds continue to rally!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $75 per barrel.
Natural Gas plunged, closing under $3.70; we could see a bounce next week.
Gold rallied, closing around $1237.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 83.
The 30 year Bond rallied again, but dropped back down to around $134.

News:
U.S. economic growth slows to 1.6% in second quarter
Debt crisis just beginning, Morgan Stanley says
Intel cuts sales forecast citing weaker consumer PC market
Foreclosures drop, but new delinquencies rise
Existing-home sales plunge 27.2%
New-Home Sales Plunge 12.4% to All-Time Low in July
Housing's new nightmare

Fed ready to take 'unconventional measures'
Big investors go for gold, bonds
The Looming Battle for the Future of Mobile Devices