Stock Market Blog -Jan 23rd

The market began to show some signs of weakness this week as some of the high fliers lost some ground (AAPL, AMZN, FFIV, GOOG, CREE, CRM, etc.).

IBM on the other hand continued to hit all time highs, and ORCL is hitting highs not seen in 10 years. ISRG popped on earnings; also GE.

Gold and Silver dropped this week too, while Bonds have been in a trading range for the past month.

The Year's Best Stocks (2010)

Meanwhile, the Small Caps and the Nasdaq 100 are showing some weakness...

New unemployment claims dropped to 404,000! (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week we get lots of earnings reports, to include:

Mon: AXP, HAL, MCD, TXN, VMW
Tue: DD, JNJ, MMM, TRV, JNPR, YHOO, VZ
Wed: BA, COP, NFLX
Thu: T, CAT, MO, AMZN, MSFT, POT
Fri: CVX, F

Market commentary: Earnings reports will continue to drive the market next week. So far, we have seen some of the high fliers losing ground, and the market starting to weaken. If I were to pick a direction, it would be to the down side.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were lower, closing around $89 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.75.
Gold saw a large drop, closing around $1341.
The 30 year Bond dropped a bit, closing near $120.
The US Dollar index dropped, closing around 78.25.

News:
U.S. Stocks Decline, S&P 500 Ends Longest Weekly Winning Streak Since 2007
Economy Probably Sped Up as U.S. Consumer Spending Rose Most in Four Years
Bank of America Posts $1.6 Billion Earnings Loss
U.S. debt crosses $14 trillion mark for first time
Gold, silver settle lower on optimism about economy
Rising commodities prices loom

Will the Economic Recovery Slide on $90 Oil?
A Path Is Sought for States to Escape Their Debt Burdens
Facebook raises $1.5 billion
Big tech is beautiful
There Are No Pros in Financial Planning

Stock Market Blog -Jan 16th

The market continued to power-up this week, with Energy and Financials leading the way again. Oil prices were back over the $90 level, while Gold saw some more losses. Bonds were mostly unchanged.

New all time highs: APC, AAPL, AMZN, CY, CSX, FFIV, IBM, RAX, SINA, TCK, PCLN
...mostly 'tech' -it's 1999 again!

Also: MDY Mid-cap ETF! interesting...

New all time lows: QID, SDS, TZA (same story -all the inverse index ETFs!)


New unemployment claims rose again, this time to 445,000! (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week kicks off earnings season, Big week -earnings and option expiration.

Market commentary: Most likely we'll see the market begin to react to earnings reports next week. I still maintain that there is more risk in being 'long' at this level. The market has rallied almost non-stop since September. Bond prices may be seeing a bottom in this area too, while the US Dollar might be seeing a short term double top.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were slightly lower, closing around $88 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up then down, closing unchanged near $4.40.
Gold dropped, closing around $1370.
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $121.
The US Dollar index rallied, closing around 81.40.

News:
U.S. stocks post seventh week of gains
Gas prices head for $4 a gallon

Stock Market Blog -Jan 9th

We started off the new year with a nice rally on Monday. The much anticipated jobs report on Friday was somewhat disappointing, but the market didn't show much reaction. The unemployment rate also fell to 9.4%, which is encouraging.

New unemployment claims were back over the 400,000 level at 409,000! (chart).
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week kicks off earnings season, with AA reporting on Monday, INTC on Thursday, and JPM on Friday.

Market commentary: Most likely we'll see the market begin to react to earnings reports next week. I still maintain that there is more risk in being 'long' at this level. The market has rallied almost non-stop since September. Bond prices may be seeing a bottom in this area too, while the US Dollar might be seeing a short term triple top.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were slightly lower, closing around $88 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up then down, closing unchanged near $4.40.
Gold dropped, closing around $1370.
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $121.
The US Dollar index rallied, closing around 81.40.

News:
The job market: a lost decade
3 Trades for Solar Rebound

Stock Market Blog -Jan 2nd

Happy New Year to everyone, as I write my first post for 2011. The market was flat this week as expected, though some of the recent leaders started to show signs of weakness.

For 2011, I think one of the trades will be to short Bonds (TBT, TBF..), as long term interest rates start creeping up.

Another trade might be to look at some of the commodity ETFs as prices continue to increase (DBA, DBB, DBC, RJA, etc. see: 123etfs.com).

Energy and alternative energy might be worth considering too (XLE, TAN, etc.).

Of course, the S&P500 (or any other US index: SPY, QQQQ, IWM...) will be in play as well. With all the money printing to stimulate the economy, we could see a boost in the overall stock market.

Gold was up for the 10th year in a row!

Meanwhile, we start off the new year with $14 trillion in debt, and climbing...

Market snapshot

New unemployment claims for the week fell below 400k to 388,000! (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The first significant report for the year will be the monthly jobs report on Friday.

Market commentary: We start off the new year eagerly awaiting the next batch of earnings reports due to begin in about a week. The jobs report on Friday could be a market mover as well.
We could see some selling this week as the technical indicators on the charts seem to suggest.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing just over $91 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.40.
Gold rallied to close the year at an all time high, around $1421.
The 30 year Bond may have turned up, closing near $122'04.
The US Dollar index dropped, closing around 79.28.

Commodities

News:
U.S. stocks extend gains into second year
Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds, Dollar in 2010
The Top-Performing ETFs of 2010
Oil Surges to Highest Year-End Price Since 2007 on Dollar
Inflation Scorecard: Gold Wraps Up Year With Record Gains
Bond fund investors face tough new era
Home foreclosures jump in 3rd quarter: regulators
Home Prices Fall; Declines Expected to Continue
Slide show: Review the year 2010 in 10 pictures

Busch: Top 5 Problems for 2011
Tom Lydon Makes the Case for Small Caps, Corporate Debt
Brazil’s new president promises more economic growth
2011 poses challenges for India markets
Chinese stock market posts 15% fall for 2010

Stock Market Blog -Dec 26th

The market inched up again this week on very light volume, while Bonds drifted down. The VIX continues to drift down as well, approaching the April low, as well as the 2008 low.

New unemployment claims for the week fell to 420,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Light trading week expected due to the holidays.

Market commentary: I expect we'll close out the year at right about the current level. After the 1st of January, we could see some volatility as traders position for the new year and for a new batch of earnings reports.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices continued to rise, closing just over $91 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.00.
Gold dropped a bit, closing around $1375.
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $120'16.
The US Dollar index was mostly flat, closing around 80.80.

News:
Stocks Keep Delivering in December
Three holiday indicators to bring you cheer
Bespoke: Bullish Sentiment Reaches Historical Extremes
17 Facts About China That Will Blow Your Mind
Outlook 2011: Is the Smart Money Right About China?
Investor bond retreat the fastest pace in 2 years
The Three Financial Trends That Will Define 2011

Stock Market Blog -Dec 19th

* * * Happy Holidays to all * * *

The market was mostly flat this week of Options expiration, though US Bonds sold off again. Meanwhile the financial problems in Europe continue to weigh on markets. In Washington the House and Senate passed the tax-cut extension, as well as a payroll tax reduction for 2011, all bullish news for the market.

ORCL popped after their earnings announcement, and has now more than doubled since the market low in March 2009.

BBY plunged after reporting earnings. BIDU sold off this week too.

V and MA plunged after the Federal Reserve announced a plan to cut debit card fees.

New all time highs:
ACN, APKT, CAT, COH, CTSH, DECK, ESRX, INTU, KMX, NKE, LULU, TCK, TIF

New unemployment claims for the week fell to 420,000 (chart).
This week, six more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Short holiday week -markets will be closed on Friday.

Market commentary: I'm not looking for much action in the markets this week as we approach year end, though we could see a correction from the overbought condition, before earnings season begins again in January.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped a bit, closing near $88 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $4.00.
Gold dropped, closing around $1378.
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $122'27.
The US Dollar index was up, closing around 80.75.

News:
U.S. stocks clock weekly gains after tepid session
Small Stocks Double Return of Big Caps in 2010
Hewlett-Packard: The biggest dog of the Dow
Whitney Tilson: Why We’re Short Netflix
A Response to Netflix Short Sellers
Fiscally Irresponsible Friday: Trading for Magic Beans

What the new tax bill means for you
2010 in Review
Ten money-making investment ideas for 2011
SLV and the Great Silver Shortage at COMEX
The Countrywide albatross at B of A
Two States Sue Bank of America Over Mortgages
Bernard Madoff's elder son dead in suicide
Don't Go to Brazil for a Deal on an iPad
Solar: Looking Forward to a Bullish 2011
When Gold Correction Ends, Uptrend Should Remain Intact

Stock Market Blog -Dec 12th

The market drifted higher this week, and looks poised to continue with a year end rally. The S&P500 is now at at two year high! This week we also saw a big drop in Bond prices (higher interest rates coming). Gold and Silver might be losing some strength too.

C and HD were up nicely.

All time highs: CAR, CAT, COH, CRM, CY, ESRX, FFIV, LULU, RAX, SINA, WLT

ALL TIME LOWS: FAZ, DXD, SDS, QID, TZA -leveraged market indexes!
Continue to avoid these things.


New unemployment claims for the week rose unexpectedly to 421,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Also Friday, Options expiration for the month and the
quarter, and of course, year end.

We also get earnings reports from BBY, FDX, GIS, and ORCL.

Market commentary: This week the market continued to rally a bit. I'm looking for the year-end rally to continue, and for the S&P to move up to 1300 on this rally -probably in January sometime. The DOW is still playing catchup to the other indexes, with the small-cap Russell leading the way.

Also note that the QQQQ is now almost at a 3+ year resistance high from Sep '07.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped a bit, closing near $87.80 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up then pulled back, closing near $4.40.
Gold dropped, closing around $1384.
The 30 year Bond dropped sharply, closing near $123.
The US Dollar index was up, closing around 80.

Commodities topping? ...Bonds continue to drop...

News:
US Stocks Close Friday With Biggest Gains Of Quiet Week
U.S. Stocks Advance After Consumer Confidence Report, GE's Dividend Boost
Financial sector adds to gains
Treasuries Drop, S&P 500 Gains as Economic Data Top Forecasts
U.S. Home Values to Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year, Zillow Says
U.S. trade deficit narrows to $38.7 billion
National Deficit Grows on Higher Government Spending

Programmer Convicted of Stealing Trade Secrets from Goldman Sachs
Consumer sentiment rises in December
Shares of A&P plunge on bankruptcy talk
China's Inflation Tops 5%, Adding Pressure for Wen to Raise Interest Rates

Stock Market Blog -Dec 5th

December kicked off with a bang, with the market gapping up on Wednesday. Friday had some disappointing job numbers for November though.

All time highs: ABX, AEM, CAT, CEF, CMI, CY, DRI, FDO, FFIV, GLD, KMX, LTD, MCD, RAX, SINA, SLW, SLV, TCK, TIF, UNP, WIN, WLT, XRT (retailers!)

ALL TIME LOWS: SDS, QID, TZA -leveraged market indexes! Avoid these things.

25 High Growth Stock Being Chased by the Smart Money

New unemployment claims for the week rose unexpectedly to 436,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Consumer spending reports and Consumer sentiment...

Market commentary: This week the market rallied to a resistance level near 1227 on the S&P500 and 2593 on the NASDAQ. Next week will tell us whether the market will bounce off this level, or continue to go higher. I'm looking for a year-end rally maybe.

The RSI indicator suggests some divergence though. Volume is also low.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing near $89 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.40.
Gold was up near its all time high, and closed around $1414.
The 30 year Bond was down as stocks rallied, closing near $125'20.
The US Dollar index was down, closing around 79.20.

News:
Stocks pull higher after payrolls data questioned
A Joyless Jobless Report
Loss of jobless benefits could be serious blow to U.S. economy
Dow transports gain, industrials to follow
Bernanke on '60 Minutes': Grim outlook for jobs

China’s Gold Imports Soar Almost Fivefold on Inflation Concern
Gold’s a veteran performer; other metals are rising stars
Top Seven Most Profitable Gold Stocks
Investing in Silver in 2011
Only one of the PIIGS matters. S is for Spain.