Stock Market Blog -Jul 24th

The market rallied and took back all of the losses from the prior week, with Technology, Energy, and Financials leading the way! News of another Greece bailout, along with good earnings reports (like AAPL) helped move the markets up.

Interestingly, the Nasdaq 100 has now surpassed the high of 2007, just before the financial crisis took the markets down.

New all time highs: AAPL, CLX, GLD, IAU, FOSL, JAZZ (same as last week!)
Also: IBM, ISRG, KO, MCD, PM
Earnings pop: AAPL, AMD, IBM, KO, MCD, MS
New all time lows: PSQ, DXD (inverse 'leveraged' Nasdaq 100 and the DOW)

New unemployment claims were up again, this time to 418,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Reports include Q2 GDP on Friday.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week:
Mon -BIDU, NFLX, TXN
Tue -BIIB, BP, CMI, F, MMM, AMZN GILD, JNPR
Wed -BA, COP, GMCR, V
Thu -XOM, SBUX
Fri -MRK,

Market commentary: Earnings will continue to move the markets next week as we get reports from some of the big oil companies, and some more DOW stocks. If we can break out above the May high in the S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000, that could bode well for the markets. The NASDAQ 100 has already taken out that high. The S&P 500 is forming a nice inverted head & shoulders bullish pattern.

From my blog post last week...
"On the optimistic side, we could be forming an ABC pattern from the low in late June, with the next leg being bullish after this recent pullback."

Here is what the market actually did this week (nice ABC pattern!):


This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -maybe an ABC pattern forming
KO -new all time high
MCD -new all time high
PSQ -new all time low -be careful with leveraged ETFs!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $99.80 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.40.
Gold was up slightly, closing at $1600 for the first time ever; silver closed over $40
The 30 year Bond was down a bit, closing near $125.88.
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 74.46

News:
Stocks end week solidly higher
Stocks: Big week ahead
Debt ceiling: Now what?
Apple’s on a roll; now comes the hard part
BofA to give away houses
Citi and Morgan Stanley Borrowed Over $2 Trillion From Fed
American Airlines Orders 460 Narrowbody Aircraft
Borders Bookstore Will Eliminate 11,000 Jobs, Close 400 Remaining Stores
U.S. lost $14B on auto bailout... Excellent!

Day Traders' Switch to Currency Speculation
Gold to Fall Below $1320 in Second Half of 2011
Petrobras unveils $225 billion investment plan
China to Wall Street: The Side-Door Shuffle
Ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn had sex with three women...

Stock Market Blog -Jul 17th

GOOG stock rallied by $70 on Friday after reporting great earnings! The market however was down for the week. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling, European financial difficulties, the end of the Fed's QE2 program, and a lack of jobs continue to weigh on the market. The Financial sector led the way down this week.


New all time highs: AAPL, CLX, GLD, IAU, FOSL, JAZZ
Gold hit an all time high again!

New unemployment claims dropped to 405,000 (chart).
This week, four more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Earnings reports continue to come in next week:
Mon -IBM
Tue -GS, KO, BAC, WFC, JNJ, AAPL, CMG, ISRG, VMW, YHOO
Wed -BIDU, MO, UTX, AXP, INTC
Thu -T,F, AMD, FCX, MSFT, DECK
Fri -CAT, GE, MCD, VZ

Market commentary: We lost some ground last week as the Fed didn't light any more fires under the economy. The market will primarily be driven by the slew of earnings releases due next week, with lots of anxiety about AAPL, especially after the blowout numbers we got from GOOG this week. AAPL could go either way in my opinion -they have some challenges ahead of them; remember it's not about whether they report great numbers, but rather how the market reacts to those numbers.

The overall market has been in a trendless, trading range since February, the most difficult type of market to trade. On the optimistic side, we could be forming an ABC pattern from the low in late June, with the next leg being bullish after this recent pullback.


Bonds may be doing a double top here...


This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -maybe an ABC pattern forming
GOOG -moonshot to $600!
AAPL -whats next? double top?
GLD -all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $97.20 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.55.
Gold was up, closing at an all time high of $1590.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $126.
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 75.40

News:
Stocks unsettled by debt uncertainty
Stock Market: There Are Striking Similarities To Last Years Correction
Google+ grows to 10 million users
Gold Stocks to Outsparkle Gold in Post-QE2 World
Trading Of Over The Counter Gold And Silver To Be Illegal Beginning July 15
Short sale fraud plagues the housing market

The Swiss Can Barely Afford Their Currency
Italy and the euro on the edge

Stock Market Blog -Jul 10th

The market drifted up some more this week, only to drop on Friday after a very disappointing jobs report. Unemployment is up again, coming in at 9.2%.

Also, the US Dollar looks like it wants to start an up-trend, which could mean more downside action in stocks.

New all time highs: AMZN, DTV, GMCR, GLNG, NFLX, XLY


New unemployment claims dropped to 418,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings reports start coming in. Also, Options expiration on Friday!!

Eanings reports:
Mon -AA
Tue -
Wed -YUM
Thu -GOOG, JPM
Fri -C

Market commentary: We are approaching the May top again, so be careful. Earnings will be driving market direction in the coming weeks. If we are able to break out above the May high, we could see a nice rally, otherwise we could be stuck in a trading range near 1300 on the S&P500.

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -still approaching the May top
DTV -all time high
NFLX -all time high
XLY -all time high (Consumer discretionary!)

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing around $96.20 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.20.
Gold was up, closing near $1541.
The 30 year Bond jumped on Friday, closing near $125.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 75.50

News:
Stocks end lower on weak jobs growth
Unemployment rose to 9.2 percent as hiring stalls
Hiring weak in June, with only 18,000 jobs created
Earnings growth cooled in second quarter
Transport stocks: The little engine that can't
'Cold Summer' for Markets as Rally Hits a Jobs Wall
FHA gives jobless homeowners one-year break

China June Inflation at 3-Year High; Revives Rate Debate
Go big on the debt ceiling
ECB raises interest rates, hints at more increases
The next, worse financial crisis
How nations go bankrupt, one sliver at a time

There is Nothing to Fear but the TSA Itself

Stock Market Update -July 3rd

We got a huge rally this week, with big gains every day wiping out most of the prior losses for the month. This was the best one week rally in 2 years. 'Short covering' probably added fuel to push the rally higher, along with some temporary relief from the situation in Greece.

We'll have to see if it turns into a sustained up-trend. Of course, as stocks rallied, the US Dollar was down, and the Euro rallied; Bonds were also down as stocks rose.

New all time highs: ACN, AMZN, AVGO, BBBY, BIIB, CMG, COH, DRI, DTV, IBM, MCD, SBUX, SODA, TIF, XRT, UTX, YUM


New unemployment claims were mostly unchanged at 428,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). 4 day trading week. Happy 4th of July!
We get the much anticipated monthly Jobs report on Friday morning.

Market commentary: The market rallied nicely off support this week. We're seeing stocks hitting new all time highs again (see above). This rally could continue further if we get good earnings reports a week from now!

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -approaching the May top
XLK -Technology -nice rally off the bottom- like most stocks
TLT -Gov bonds -dropped! inverse relationship to stocks -was that the top!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing around $95.00 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged closing near $4.30.
Gold tumbled, in spite of the dollar dropping, closing near $1480.
The 30 year Bond tumbled as stocks rose, closing near $122.68.
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 75.45.

News:
Earnings: The market's bright spot
Best-performing stocks of 2011
Bank of America in $8.5-billion mortgage settlement
Bank of America Slays Countrywide Beast
Minnesota government shuts down

Homeowners Get Break On Mortgage—Without Asking
Looming Loss of Federal Incentives Darkens Future of Solar Power Stocks
It Looks Like The Bond Rally Is Over (TBF, TLT)

Stock Market Blog -Jun 26th

Lots of indecision in the markets this week. Seems like the Fed Chairman spooked the market on Wednesday, with a weak outlook on the US economy. The US Dollar rallied as the Euro dropped (not sure which came first!), while all other asset classes dropped, including Oil, Gold, and the S&P 500. Of course Bonds rallied as money looked for a safer place to hide.

New all time highs: SOLR -this solar company is rallying while all others are dropping!
Also BIIB, LULU


GOOG continues to drop as technology (XLK) tries to find a bottom in this downdraft.


Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week marks the end of the quarter -we could see some mutual fund window dressing affect the markets.

Market commentary: We are still trying to put in a bottom in the market -maybe after the quarter ends this week?

News:

Stock Market Blog -Jun 19th

The market continued its downward trend this week, approaching a potential level of support at 1250 on the S&P 500. We'll probably get a bounce at that level. With all the news about Greece, the Euro dropped, helping to push the US Dollar up, and stocks and commodities down. Oil and Natural Gas saw a big drop this week, while Bonds rallied.

RIMM tumbled some more this week on bad earnings.
AAPL & GOOG dropped on Friday -Options expiration??


New unemployment claims dropped to 414,000 (chart).
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). We have a Fed meeting next week, along with earnings from ORCL and FDX. We should also get news on the financial crisis in Greece on Monday.

Market commentary: 'Looks like we may be headed down to the next support level near 1250 on the S&P 500' -This was last week's comment. We are almost there. I'm looking for a bounce in that area, but the big picture is still bearish.

This month marks the end of the Fed's QE2 stimulus program. This month also marks the end of the 2nd quarter (mutual funds window dressing?).

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -approaching the March bottom
XLK -Technology -already past the March bottom
TLT -Gov bonds -will they go higher?

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices tumbled, closing around $92.90 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped to near $4.33.
Gold was up a bit, closing near $1540.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $127'06.
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 75.45.

Corn dropped, after rallying to all time highs last week.
Most commodities were down, as the Euro dropped, and the dollar rallied.

News:
Stocks have their first winning week since April
Investors search for signs U.S. will avert a double dip
Fed set to cut growth forecast during meeting
U.S. recovery could take until 2018
Investors Take Warning: Storm Clouds Gathering

Pandora sees quick rise and fall with IPO
Oracle seeks billions from Google over Java patent
J.C. Penney taps Apple’s retail chief as CEO
How long can BofA shareholders tread water?
10 Vintage Stocks Worth a Fortune
Greece poses $41 billion risk to U.S. banks
UK banks abandon eurozone over Greek default fears

Stock Market Blog -Jun 12th

Another ugly week in the markets. The market dropped as the US Dollar rallied against the Euro. Bonds held up, keeping interest rates down. The $600 billion QE2 stimulus from the Fed is winding down this month, so we'll see how the market reacts. BTW, QE2 didn't work -just more money down the drain!

AAPL stock continued to drop, in spite of the much anticipated developers conference with Steve Jobs on Monday. RIMM, CSCO, and others also continued to drop.


The major indexes are all down since May 1st.; meanwhile Bonds are up...


New unemployment claims increased again to 427,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
Unofficial Problem Bank list over 1,000 Institutions

Next week: (Economic reports link). Don't forget Options & Futures expiration this coming Friday, a quarterly expiration cycle.

Market commentary: Looks like we may be headed down to the next support level near 1250 on the S&P 500. We are also approaching the 200MA, so we can expect at least a nice bounce when we get there.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices are still stuck in a trading range, closing just over $99 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, then dropped to near $4.75.
Gold dropped a bit, closing near $1528.
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $126'31.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 74.83.

Corn rallied to all time highs after a negative crop report!

News:
Dow falls below 12K; stocks drop 6 weeks straight
Investors nervous as stock market eyes correction
Yes, You Should Buy TIPS; Here's How and When
Things could get ugly as debt cloud grows
Two Clear Warning Signs From the Corporate Bond Markets
It might be time to talk double-dip recession
Meredith Whitney: State finances are worse than estimated


Investing: Why bank stocks went bust
It's time to bet against the government
The Fallacy Of the Steep Yield Curve
Second-Mortgage Misery
Why do we fear a rising China?
Exxon discovers 700 million barrels in Gulf of Mex

Stock Market Blog -Jun 5th

We saw a sharp sell-off in the market this week after an attempted rally early in the week. Bad economic news, including a very disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Friday, caused the market to continue the sell-off started on May 1st! The unemployment rate is back up to 9.1%, and the DOW is now down 5 weeks in a row.

The market was unable to gather any strength in spite of a pullback in the US Dollar. Bonds were up again as investors scurried for safety.

New all time highs: PHK, HANS, NFLX -nothing stops Netflix!


New unemployment claims dropped to 422,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Market commentary: Well, The S&P 500 did fail to stay above the 1340 level that I mentioned last week, and dropped like a rock when it got there! We could find support near here (1300), get a bounce, then drop again to the next support level near 1250.

Prior week comment...

This week!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing just over $100 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.70.
Gold was up, closing near $1541.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $126'18.
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 73.80.

News:
Stocks post fifth straight week of losses
Dow Average Has Its Longest Weekly Slump Since 2004
Payrolls Expand at Slowest Pace in Eight Months as U.S. Slowdown Persists
State of U.S. economy grows murkier

Unemployment Jumps Back to 9.1%
Falling Home Prices Hit Big Banks, Fannie, Freddie
R.I.P. Reaganomics Revolution: 1981-2011