Stock Market Blog -Sep 18th

We got a nice rally this week, which happened to also include 'quarterly' options expiration. We'll see how the rest of the quarter plays out through September 30th. For a new up-trend to be established, a lot of price resistance has to be overcome from the August drop. 

Gold lost some of its luster, while Bonds continue to hold up well.

New all time highs: Amazing AMZN! ATHN, AZO, BBBY, COST, CL, DMND, DG, DLTR, DUK, HANS, JAZZ, KO, MA, NUS, ORLY, SO, TJX -are we really in a bear market? INTC is also showing good strength.


All time lows: STP (Solar stocks have been hit hard lately)


NFLX and RIMM tumbled this week!

New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 428,000 (chart). 
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Fed meeting next week -we may get some kind of market moving announcement. Also, FDX and ORCL report earnings.

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally this week, and it did crush the bears (last week's post)! 
I expect a pullback now, then maybe another push higher, but with high volatility, anything could happen. Stocks are still hitting new all time highs (see above), so this 'bear market' could just be losing some strength. The Nasdaq 100 is already showing 'higher highs' over some recent tops. Watch for any surprise announcement by the Fed next week too!

This weeks charts: 
Amazing Amazon
Gold pulled back
TLT may be reversing? (Bonds)
The Euro recovered a bit

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were higher, closing around $87.96 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was slightly lower, closing near $3.81
Gold dropped, closing around $1815. 
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $139.78. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was lower, closing near 76.60

News:  
Stocks finish their second-best week in a year
Stocks Advance 5.4% for the Week
3 Reasons Why The S&P 500 Index Will Move Higher 
Market Recap: 15 Reasons the Dow Rallied 4.7% and Gold Dipped
U.S. Federal Reserve Steps Up to Buoy Global Financial Markets

Foreclosure filings jump 7% in August from July
Alabama County Nears $3.14 Billion Settlement, Avoids Historic Muni Bankruptcy


Buy EMC To Get VMware's Growth, But Not At VMware's Price
Buy Starbucks To Give Your Portfolio A Caffeinated Boost
10 Stocks That Are Cheaper Than You Think

UBS Has $2B Loss; Man Arrested in London
Is Netflix the Next Research in Motion?

RIMM Misses on Lower Sales
Microsoft unveils a radically redesigned Windows 8 
Bank Of America Just Took Armageddon Off The Table 

Central banks to provide dollar liquidity
How a stronger dollar shakes up your portfolio
Euro Will Continue To Fall: US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Gold Best Hedging Options

Stock Market Blog -Sep 11th

The market ended the week with a 300+ drop in the DOW on Friday. Lots of uncertainty with the 911 anniversary on Sunday, a G7 meeting this weekend, Europe still in financial turmoil, and people trying to analyze the President's jobs speech given on Thursday night. Investors were running to safety, buying the 10 year Treasury notes and pushing the yield under 2%  (post WWII levels), and also buying Gold.

BAC continues to be under pressure, with a corporate shakeup this week.
Likewise for YHOO, where they ousted the CEO.

New all time highs: AZO, ORLY, IEF, Gold stocks: AUY, GDX, NEM, NGD, RGLD 
Continuing to lose ground: HPQ, GS, JPM, DB, STD, UBS, HBC, BCS, CS, EFA,

 The Euro plummeted further this week, after breaking a support level on the charts at 1.40, so we could see further downside action there, and in the S&P 500, since they generally trade in the same direction.
 
The Swiss Franc also dropped after government intervention, also helping to push up the US Dollar, and further weakening the S&P 500.


New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 414,000 (chart). 
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Quarterly options expiration on Friday. Best Buy and RIMM to report earnings.

Market Commentary

Lets not forget that we are still in a bear market, so if you are buying anything, it should only be for a short bounce. The S&P500 could drop further to 'test' the previous low of Aug 8th, then maybe give us another bounce?  On the other hand, we could see a relief rally on Monday or Tuesday, which would crush all the bears! This being options expiration week, and the end of the 3rd quarter, we should see added volatility, so expect anything! And don't forget the full moon on Monday too.

To hedge your portfolio from further downside action, inverse ETFs might be appropriate, as long as you understand 1) how they work, and 2) how to hedge! (SDS, QID, etc)

This weeks charts: 
Bonds still climbing!

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were higher, closing around $87.24 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was slightly higher, closing near $3.92
Gold was up, then dropped, closing at $1860. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up again, closing near $140'14. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was higher, closing near 77.20, and pushing the S&P 500 down.

News: 
Dow headed below 10,000 as cyclical bear begins
Markets Seeing Nothing but Classic Bear Action
Behind the Selloff: US Is Struggling, Europe Is Worse
Deepening fears about Europe sink stocks
U.S. Stocks Drop on Greece Concern
Greek default fears return

What's in Obama's stimulus plan

Is a Bottom in for the Dollar?
Euro Falls to Six-Month Low Against the Dollar as Stark Resigns from ECB
French Banks Poised for Moody’s Downgrade
Europe Banks Valued at Post-Lehman Low

Stock Market Blog -Sep 4th

After some weak economic data, and no more Fed stimulus, the market pulled back near the end of the week. The monthly jobs data was a big disappointment, again. Unemployment remains at 9.1%, with zero new jobs added for last month! Good riddance to an ugly August for investors.

Gold mining stocks were up this week, with some breakouts.

New all time highs: CF, IEF, KO.  Gold stocks -GDX, NEM, EGO, RGLD, NGD
New all time lows: TBT (inverse bonds), ZSL (inverse silver)
COMPANIES HITTING 52-WEEK HIGHS/LOWS






HPQ and RIMM are back below the lows of March 2009, the beginning of the 2 year rally!

New unemployment claims dropped, coming in at 409,000 (chart). 
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Market Commentary

Well the market did bounce, then pull back. Was that the top for this recent bounce? It could be. We get to hear from the President on Thursday evening about creating new jobs again. We'll see how the market reacts. Can the 10 year bonds go any higher??



Issues in Europe with Greece and others could continue to keep the markets down. Our stock indexes seem to generally trade in the same direction as the Euro. September months can be ugly too!

This weeks charts: 
Gold climbing again
Bonds still climbing!

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing around $86.50 per barrel. 
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $3.86
Gold was up again, closing at $1879. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up again, closing near $140'14. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 74.88

News: 
Stocks plunge after US hiring dries up in August
Stocks Lose for Week as Recession Fears Grow
Feds sue big banks over sales of risky investments
U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages
How Low Can The 10-Year Treasury Yield Go? (Part 1)

Ackermann Says Market Reminiscent of 2008
Bank of America May Have to Sell Merrill to Survive
Bank of America Loses Its Bounce
Netflix stock falls as talks on Starz deal unravel
The 10 Highest Momentum Stocks
Guide for Nervous Investors: What to Watch This Month

Euro-zone manufacturing PMI drops to two-year low

Stock Market Blog -Aug 28th

The market showed some strength this week, closing near the highs after the Fed speech on Friday. Gold spiked to just over $1900 per ounce before dropping back a bit. Meanwhile, Greece continues to have financing issues in Euroland.

Apple this week announced the departure of Steve Jobs as CEO.The stock dropped initially, then rebounded.

New all time highs: CF, RGLD, NGD,
COMPANIES HITTING 52-WEEK HIGHS/LOWS

New unemployment claims came in higher again at 417,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Friday we get the monthly jobs report again -usually a market moving event.

Market Commentary

We got a nice bounce this week, which could indicate that the selling is over. The risk/reward favors the upside at  this point so I would say it's safe to get in for a short term bounce. Until the market moves back over the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages though, the 'bigger trend' is still to the down side.

This weeks charts:

In charts: Weak GDP and weaker consumption
Gold hit another all time high, then pulled back
TAN -Solar ETF in the weeds 
COCO -from $20 to $2!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $85.37 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.93
Gold was up, then pulled back, closing at $1797.
The 30 year Bond futures was up again, closing near $138.16 Still no top...
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 73.71
Meanwhile Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Rice continue to climb in price.

News: 
Stocks break four-week losing streak
Economy: 'Slowdown is here to stay'
Three Bond ETFs To Weather The Storm
Beware the Bond Bubble. Again
What Bernanke said in Jackson Hole
Investors stick with Treasuries after Bernanke
Editorial: The Fed Should Go On Vacation

Buffett bets $5 billion on Bank of America
Morgan Stanley borrowed $107 billion, most of all banks, during 2008 financial company bailout
What’s B of A's problem now?

Debt will haunt the market for years to come

One Number Says it All

What Makes Steve Jobs Great
Why McDonald's wins in any economy

Gold $3,000?
Greek Bond Yields Climb to Record High on Speculation Bailout Will Fail

Stock Market Blog -Aug 21st

This week we saw some big sell offs again in the market, though the volume wasn't quite as high as the sell offs earlier this month. Much of it was sparked by fears of a European financial crisis, along with bad economic numbers reported again this week. I won't be surprised to see a 2008 style financial crisis in Europe before long. Investors flee stock funds at rate not seen since 2008 panic

The 10 year bond reached an historic low yield below 2%, lower than during the 2008 financial meltdown! Is the bond market telling us something here???

Gold was on fire, and hit another record high! Last week marked 40 years since President Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard. Gold was $35 per oz. then, today it's $1852 per oz.

Google spent $12.5 billion to buy Motorola Mobility for their patents!

Hewlett Packard tanked on Friday, hitting prices not seen since 2005.
SHLD also dropped.


New unemployment claims came in at 408,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
Next week: (Economic reports link). Annual Fed meeting on Friday.

Bank stocks are in trouble again!
Bank of America
Citibank
Regions?
Bank of New York
  (click to see charts)

Foreign banks: Deutsche Bank Societe Generale Barclays PLC

Market Commentary

We 'did' get a nice bounce on Monday, and European financial issues 'did' spoil the party -just what I said last week! I would still look for a bounce soon, to start getting out of long positions. I suspect the market will drop to the recent lows, then give us a bounce. Keep an eye on Europe still, as I expect things over there to deteriorate further. In a worst case scenario, we could fall all the way back down to 1050 or 1010 on the SPX, and give back all the QE2 gains!
Market’s rally from oversold levels may not stick

Looks like we are headed for a bear market as investors lose confidence, and into another recession as well (as if the first one ever ended!)

BTW, I'm one of those that believe high frequency trading should be banned (trading thousands of transactions in milliseconds). It can often cause unnecessary disruptions in what should be an orderly market, and it's only a matter of time before it creates another 'flash crash' or worse. This is not investing, it's becoming 'War Games' for stocks, where the computers take over the trading.

This weeks charts:
10 year Note yield hitting all time lows!
Gold continues to hit all time highs

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $82.25 per barrel. Looks like it's headed to $72
Natural Gas dropped too, closing near $3.94
Gold was up again, closing at $1852.
Silver broke out, above the $42 level.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $140.31 Light volume, but still no top yet!
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 74.05

Steep move up in Bonds

News:
Another nasty week for Wall Street
3 Crashes and Another Credit Crisis
Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored
Treasury Rally Pushes Yields to Record Lows
Bond markets signal 'Japanese' slump for US and Europe

Euro-Style Anxiety Spreads
BofA layoffs are the latest as an industry shrinks
For foreigners, the American Dream is very much alive
Road to downgrade began 40 years ago with ditching of gold standard

Overseas... Fears over French banks -Panic in Paris
Euro -We can't go on like this
German Second-Quarter Growth Almost Stalls as GDP Rises 0.1%

Japan's 20 year slump after their real estate bubble. Are we facing the same thing?

Stock Market Blog -Aug 14th

This was a huge roller coaster week in the markets as we saw 400+ point swings in the DOW. We had the US debt downgrade, the Fed meeting on Tuesday, the unemployment report on Thursday, and lingering debt issues in Europe, all contributing to the ups and downs. Banks were the hardest hit (chart below -sectors). The DOW plunged 634 points on Monday!

Bond prices were expected to drop with the US debt downgrade, but we got a rally instead!
Oil prices dropped some more this week.
Gold rallied to another all time high, hitting more than $1800 at the peak!

New all time highs this week: CF



New unemployment claims came in at 395,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Volatility will continue...

Earnings reports continue to come in next week to include:
DELL, DE, HPQ, HD, LOW, WMT, TGT, ROST, TJX

Market commentary: We could get a nice bounce next week, though European financial issues could spoil the party again. I would use a bounce to start getting out of positions. Technical indicators suggest that the selling isn't over yet. Also this market looks like it could be headed lower as the year progresses.

This weeks charts:
S&P500 -the 2 year bull market from March '09 might be in trouble
DOW 25 years -can we drop back to 8000?
More 25 year charts GE CAT AAPL MSFT IBM MCD XOM
25 years of Citibank!
25 years of Bank of America
Gold hits another all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $85.30 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.05
Gold was up again, closing at $1742
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $136.93 No top yet!
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 74.60

News:
After a wild week for stocks, what to do?
Dow finishes wild week on an up note
Treasuries shake but survive first AA+ week
Europe on the Brink: Does Their Fall Ensure Our Recession?
European regulators ban short selling
Traders Slash Bets Against Dollar by Record Amount as U.S. Treasuries Soar
Fed pledges very low interest rates for 2 years

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Three-Decade Low Amid Economic Headwinds
Withdrawals From Stock Funds Biggest Since ’08
Is This a New Bear Market? The Chart That Tells The Whole Story
New Bear Market or "Healthy Correction"?
Postal Service proposing cutting 120,000 jobs
Computers rule Wall Street
Apple Overtakes Exxon Becoming World’s Most Valuable Company

Stock Market Blog -Aug 7th

The debt ceiling 'show' is over, and now it's time for a new show: U.S. triple-A debt rating cut by Standard & Poor’s!

Last week our illustrious government representatives were scurrying to get a debt ceiling deal done to avoid a negative market reaction on Sunday night. So they got a 'deal' done, and guess what? the markets tanked anyway. (Stocks: Worst week since financial crisis). The DOW dropped over 500 points the day after the 'deal' was done!

Also on Friday we got a better than expected jobs report, but the market continued its downtrend. Next week we'll see more turmoil in the markets as we deal with this US debt downgrade.

This past 2 weeks we have seen a fast drop in the market

New all time highs this week: ?
Drops: BRCD, DNDN, MRO, PMI

New unemployment claims came in right at 400,000 (chart).
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Fed meeting next week. The US debt downgrade will probably be the focus of next week's market action however.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week to include:
Cisco, Disney, J C Penny,

Market commentary: The market tested the 'lows' -(last week's commentary), and went even lower, with huge volume! This is ugly. I'm sure we'll get a bounce, but the longer term picture just changed for the worse. Looks like we are headed in bear market territory now. Use any bounce to get out of long positions or to establish a hedge.

This weeks charts:
SPY -dropping like a rock!
SPX -we might eventually make it all the way down to the 1025 area!
DNDN -dropped like a rock
BAC -no relief in sight
BRCD -trouble

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices saw a huge drop, closing around $86.88 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.94
Gold was up again, closing at $1651
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $132.2. Is this the top in bonds?
The US Dollar was up, closing near 74.60

News:
Stocks: Worst week since financial crisis
Sort Through the Wreckage of a 500-point Down Day
Treasuries: 'It's pretty grim'
Fannie Mae loss widens; asking taxpayers for $2.8B
Rhode Island city files for bankruptcy
Chronicle of gloom: Economic indicators at lows

S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating
S&P's $2 Trillion Error Didn't Change Rating Cut Decision
S&P said to back away from U.S. downgrade
China Tells US 'Good Old Days' of Borrowing Over

Jobs recovery still weak
Jobs report: A pig in lipstick
Mass Layoffs Rise
Food stamp use rises to record 45.8 million
Oil near $86 as outlook for crude demand dims
New Fee to Bank Cash

Massive HSBC Layoffs Only the Beginning
Switzerland Desperately Tries To Control Its Currency
Bank of Japan Adds Monetary Stimulus, Supporting Effort to Cool Yen Gains
Asian Stocks Tumble 11% From May High on Economic Growth Concern
Carlos Slim Loses $6.7 Billion in a Week

Stock Market Blog -Jul 31st

This was a bad week in the markets! The debt ceiling issue caused some investor angst, along with lousy GDP numbers on Friday. Things aren't getting better folks, despite what you hear in the media. The market has gone nowhere in the past 7 months (chart below).

Also, Bond prices were up! With the US credit limit at stake, one would have expected bonds to drop -so much for trying to figure out market direction.

Bonds were up this week!

Check out the debt clock on the left side of this blog! It was just in 2008 that the debt clock in Times Square, NY ran out of digits as we hit $10,000,000,000,000 in debt!


New all time highs this week: DECK, GMCR, GLD, IAU, JAZZ
Drops: AEM, IMAX, JNPR, MMM, MRK, STEC, S

New unemployment claims were under 400000, coming in at 398,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). The markets anxiously await a final resolution to the debt ceiling issue. Next Friday we also get the much anticipated monthly jobs report.

Earnings reports continue to come in next week to include:
Kraft Foods, Clorox, Mastercard, Priceline, and Pfizer.

Market commentary: So much for breaking out above the May high in the S&P 500! We gave up all the gains from the prior week, with all the indexes taking out the mid-July low. Now we may see the market test the 'lows' before resuming any up-trend.

This weeks charts:
GLD -new all time high

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $95.70 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $4.15.
Gold was up again, closing at $1631
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $128.19
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 73.90
Currencies rallying against the US dollar: Yen, Swiss, New Zealand!

News:
Stocks: Worst week in 2011
GDP grows slender 1.3% in second quarter
Why we’ll have 10% unemployment soon
Gold hits record high amid debt ceiling 'mud slinging'
Silver May Rebound to Test $100 Level, Citigroup Says

Nearly half of Americans believe members of Congress are corrupt, as debt talks continue
6% Of American Voters Think Congress Is Doing A Good Job
SOROS TO QUIT HEDGE FUND AND RETURN CASH TO INVESTORS
Moody's warns Greek default virtually 100 percent