Stock Market Blog -Dec 25th MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Santa didn't forget us after all! We got a nice rally this week as we saw bonds drop. With any luck, the rally will continue into the New Year, before we head into earnings season. The ECB provided about $500 billion in low interest money to the Eurozone banks, helping to drive the rally. Third quarter GDP was revised down again, to 1.8%. Basically, the market has been flat for 2011, ending just about where it started.

New all time highs: ED, KOG, MCD, PETM, PM, ROST, TJX, V, XLP
All time lows: SDS, DXD, TZA -leveraged inverse Index ETFS

Pops & Drops: ORCL, BBBY, and RHT dropped after earnings; CRM broke support

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 364,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Holiday week -4 trading days, light volume.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

The SPY did dip back to the 120 level as I mentioned last week, then we got a nice rally. The chart of the SPY could be indicating an 'ABC' pattern which started after Thanksgiving, pulled back to 120, and now could continue up to near the 130 level, finishing off a nice rally. Bonds have dropped nicely too.

This week's charts:
GOOG -going back to $700?
AAPL -moving up
V -nice performer

GPC -nice performer
MCD -nice performer
ROST & TJX -discounters doing well!
RIMM -going to zero??

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, closing just under $99.68
Natural Gas was unchanged, closing near $3.11
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1606
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $141.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.24

NEWS:
Santa rally may face test next week
Jobless Claims Drop, but 3rd-Quarter Growth Is Revised Down
Dollar selling likely next week on year-end adjustment
Interbank Markets Are Telling Investors To Sell The Rally ... Again
Paulson Fund Loses 46% in 2011 Through November

My Top 10 Stock Predictions For 2012 And Some Options Plays 
Last U.S. Troops Leave Iraq
U.S. Poised To Retake Status As Net Oil Exporter 
Banks gorge on ECB loans, market cheer short-lived
Automaker Saab files for bankruptcy

Stock Market Blog -Dec 18th

The market dropped this week, with the Nasdaq 100 giving back most of the gains from the huge 1 day rally on Nov 30th.

Gold and Silver tumbled, along with other commodities, and the stock market, as the dollar rallied.

New all time highs: ABV, ED, KMP, PETM
Pops & Drops: RIMM dropped again!

New Unemployment Claims were down again, coming in at 366,000 (chart)
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
ORCL and NKE report earnings.
Hurray! It's the last week of 2011.

Market Commentary

No Santa Claus rally -so far anyway. The market bounced off resistance and turned down again this week. Again it's hard to tell where it's headed next, with Europe driving most of the action. Maybe now is a good time to take a holiday break -Happy Holidays to all!

(for the die hard traders, we could see more downside action as the other indices fall back to the Nov 30th pre-rally levels (e.g 120 on the SPY) -The Nasdaq 100 is basically there already).

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -Interest rates
SNE -Sony, 25 years -no change!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing just under $94
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.12
Gold tanked! ...closing near $1600
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $145.32
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 80.20

NEWS:
Early rally fades; stock market down for the week
U.S. stocks expected to yield to Europe

3 Wicked Reasons To Buy Mortgage REITs Today
Don't Be Fooled, Gold Will Soar In 2012
Gold to Slip Below $1,500 in Next 3 Months: Poll

How Amazon has proven that iTunes is totally obsolete

Stock Market Blog -Dec 11th

The markets were up slightly this week as Europe managed to push out their crisis to the future once again. Weekly unemployment claims dropped to a 9 month low, while Financials continued to rally.

New all time highs:
ABV, ENB, HANS, IBM, MCD, NKE, QCOR, SWI, ORLN, PGN, ROST, YUM
Pops & Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 381,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
BBY, FDX, RIMM report earnings, and we also have the Federal Reserve meeting.

Market Commentary

The market continued to hold on to its gains from the previous week, which is a good sign. We could see it start working its way above the next resistance level around 1275 on the S&P500 (also near the 200MA). Maybe we'll get a Santa Claus rally -hard to tell at this point. Bonds showed some signs of pulling back this week, which could also be a good sign for stocks.

Why Chipotle Is Going To $400
MercadoLibre: Positioned For E-Commerce Boom

This week's charts:
Chart of the Day -earnings

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $99.41
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.32
Gold dropped, closing near $1716.80
The 30 year Bond futures fell a bit, closing near $141.16
The US Dollar was up slightly, closing near 78.63

NEWS:
Stocks Log Second Weekly Gain after EU Summit
U.S. stocks end higher, with Dow up 1.4% on week
Jobless Claims in U.S. at Lowest in Nine Months
300 Billion Reasons To Lighten Up On Risk Next Week

Inflation is still the silent killer
Treasury Should Sell Its GM Stake to GM
Secrets of the Bailout, Now Revealed

Brazil's economic growth stalls in third quarter
World Banks In Cahoots To Save Themselves
European summit: Now it's up to the ECB

Stock Market Blog -Dec 4th

We got a nice rally this week, with some perceived good news from Europe, and from the banking system. The DOW was up 492 points on Wednesday after central banks announced a plan to help banks borrow dollars to stem the Euro crisis; also China lowered reserve requirements for its banks. Bank stocks saw a nice rally (XLF), and international markets rallied almost 10% for the week. This was the best rally in the markets since March 2009, when the markets subsequently rallied for two more years.

We also got a good(?) jobs report on Friday, indicating a lower unemployment rate of 8.6%.
Meanwhile, the debt clock is now over the $15,000,000,000,000 mark!

New all time highs:
AMT, COST, FAST, FTI, GPC, HUM, KOG, MCD, KMR, MA, TJX, PETM, ROST, V
Pops: ZUMZ
Drops:

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 400,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally from an oversold condition, as I suggested last week. Now lets see if it holds. I think the rally will continue into the new year, when earnings once again will determine the next move. We are back above the congestion area between 1120 and 1220 on the S&P500. Also we should hear more news out of Europe next week

This week's charts:
AMR -airline in trouble?  << last week's comment! This week: Bankrupt!
MCD -star performer over 10 years!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $100.96
Natural gas was up a bit, closing near $3.58
Gold was up, closing near $1751
The 30 year Bond futures fell, as stocks rallied, closing near $141.81
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 78.73

NEWS:
S&P 500 Gains Most Since March 2009 on Bank Action in Europe, Retail Sales
Stocks Surge for the Week; Best Gain Since 2009
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops To Lowest Level In Well Over Two Years
Bond ETFs: Why It’s Time To Dump U.S. Treasury Bonds; Again!
Congressional Stock Trading Fails the Sniff Test, Should Earn a Ban

J.P. Morgan: Verizon is getting its iPhone reward this quarter
About Apple's incredible shrinking P/E ratio
Euro debt crisis solution on horizon
Europe Enters Critical 10 Days to Save Itself
European Banks: Here's a Loan to Buy Our Loans

Stock Market Blog -Nov 27th

Another bad week in the markets as we saw continued selling every day. The Energy, Financials, and Materials sectors were the hardest hit. According to one headline, this was the worst Thanksgiving week for the S&P 500 since 1932! Oil and Gold dropped as well, though Bonds didn't rally as much as would be expected, considering the drop in stocks.

New all time highs: KMR ...not much in this market!

AMR, NFLX, and RIMM continue to sink lower...
Drops: FMCN

New Unemployment Claims were up, coming in at 393,000 (chart)
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
LULU, TIF, and other retailers report earnings next week.
The markets also eagerly await the monthly jobs report is due on Friday.

Market Commentary

Headlines in Europe still dominate, and based on the charts, we could drop back to the early October lows again! With any luck though, we'll get a relief rally. Not much to support any view on market 'direction' from here, other than the fact that we are oversold. Only 'traders' should be in this market until we get some sort of longer term trend going again.


This week's charts:
AMR -airline in trouble?
Gold 10 good years!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $96.77
Natural gas was up a bit, closing near $3.54
Gold dropped again, closing near $1685
The 30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks fell, closing near $143.84
The US Dollar was up as stocks fell, closing near 79.83

NEWS:
S&P 500 Has Worst Thanksgiving Week Since ’32
Stocks: More 'fear, carnage and uncertainty'
Third-quarter growth revised down to 2.0 percent
FDIC: Bank earnings hit highest level in 4 years
Derivatives: The Worlds Biggest Margin Call And How To Play It

Super committee' fails to reach agreement
Could Bank Stress Tests Push US Back Into Recession?
Online sales surge 24% on Black Friday
Italian Bond Yields Doubled in Latest Bond Auction
German Bund Auction is Ominous Sign
S&P cut Belgium rating to AA

Stock Market Blog -Nov 20th

This week saw more selling as the uncertainty in Europe continues. I personally think we are headed for a 2008 style financial crisis in Europe -time will tell. Maybe we'll hold up at this support level on the S&P 500 (though the NASDAQ100 broke support today). Gold pulled back a bit, while Oil rallied to $103 then dropped right back down!

New all time highs: PM,
New all time lows: AMR, UNG,
Drops: ANF, CF, CRM, NTAP, RMBS

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 388,000 (chart)
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season is winding down, with the following companies among those reporting:  HPQ, DE

Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. We await news from the Congressional Super Committee as well.

Market Commentary

We saw more weakness in the market this week, especially in the Nasdaq 100. Maybe some of it can be attributed to Options expiration, and certainly some of it was caused by weakness in the Euro (see chart below). We could get a bounce from all the selling last week, but not sure it will mean much. Europe headlines still dominate. Based on the charts, we should be at a support level here.


This week's charts:

 NASDAQ 100 hitting resistance all year!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices spiked up to $103, then closed around $97.41
Natural gas dropped again, closing near $3.31
Gold dropped, closing near $1726
The 30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks fell, closing near $142.78
The US Dollar was up as stocks fell, closing near 78.25

NEWS:
Stocks: It's all about Italy, Spain and jobs
A Month’s Worth of … Nothing?
What Nasdaq weakness is telling us
DOUBLE STANDARD: Congress Can Legally Trade On Insider Information While Wall Streeters Go To Jail
A snapshot of the global smartphone market as of Oct. 1
7 reasons the Kindle Fire is better than the iPad

Fannie and Freddie Need Another $14 Billion, but Losses May Be Slowing
The weak euro: Look out below!
European bonds signal more pain ahead

Stock Market Blog -Nov 13th

Another choppy week in the markets, but holding above the 1225 support level on the S&P 500 (chart below). News in Europe continue to drive the markets, with Italy being in the headlines now. Next week we get earnings reports from most of the big retailers. Oil closed at $98.99, but hardly made the news!

New all time highs: COG, DUK, MA, AZO/ORLY, QCOR, SWI, TJX
New all time lows: UNG,
Pops: DIS
Drops: GMCR

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 390,000 (chart)
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:  DELL, HD, LOW, TGT, WMT

Market Commentary

We continue to be in a choppy market, but I also continue to think that the bias is to the up-side. However, bad news from Europe and a weak Euro could change that bias. Trade small and nimble till we get a trend going again in this market.

This week's charts:
OPEN -former hi flier
GMCR -former hi flier
AZO -doing well
SBUX -doing well
MCD -doing well
MA -doing well
QCOR -nice performer
Oil -approaching $100

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $98.99
Natural gas dropped, closing near $3.58
Gold was up a bit, closing near $1788
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $140.43
The US Dollar was mostly flat, closing near 77.13

NEWS:
Weekly market recap...
The Nasdaq 100 is set for a monster breakout
3 ways to gauge a scary market
Insider selling on the rise. Bear signal?
Alabama county files biggest municipal bankruptcy
Gold Traders Most Bullish Since 2004 on Debt Crisis

MF Global Terminates Entire Workforce of 1,066 Employees
MF Global Clients: Few Options to Reach Cash
Staring into the abyss (Europe)

Stock Market Blog -Nov 6th

The market dropped, then recovered a bit toward the end of the week. Friday's monthly jobs report showed a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 9%, and an increase of 80,000 jobs, hardly enough to improve the situation! Europe and Greece continue to dominate the financial news.

New all time highs:
COG, DUK, EL, FAST, FIO, HANS, LQD, MA, MCD, ORLY, PNRA, ROST, SBUX, SWI
New all time lows:
Pops: SBUX, QCOM
Drops: CECO, DNDN, OPEN

New Unemployment Claims were down, coming in at 397,000 (chart)
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC (list)

Next week: Economic reports  Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

MON: PCLN
TUE: CLNE
WED: CSCO, GMCR, GM
THU: DIS, NVDA
FRI:

Market Commentary

We got the pullback I mentioned last week! I'm still looking for the market to work its way higher toward the end of the year, with pullbacks along the way. Keep your eye on the Euro currency, as our stock market trades pretty much in the same direction.

This week's charts:

Sony
Toyota
Japan

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up again, closing around $94.40
Natural gas was mostly flat, closing near $3.91
Gold rallied again, closing near $1753
The 30 year Bond futures rallied, closing near $141.10
The US Dollar was up, closing near 77.12

NEWS:
Here’s Why the S&P 500 is Giving Investors Déjà Vu
SPX and NDX Update: Top May Be In as Retracement Rally Hits Targets
Freddie Mac Loses $4.4B in Third Quarter, Requests $6B More From Treasury
MF Global Files for Bankruptcy on Bad Euro Zone Bets
Nothing Has Changed On Wall Street
AMD cuts 10% of its workforce
Groupon IPO: Shares Soar In Public Market Debut

Europe: The worst-case scenarios
Italian bond yields at 'scary' levels