Stock Market Blog -April 29th

The DOW is back over 13000! We got a nice rally this week, helped along by AAPL and AMZN after they reported earnings. GDP numbers were weak, Unemployment numbers were weak, and Spain was downgraded, but that didn't seem to  matter to the market. Britain is also reported to be in a recession again!

Lots of stocks with new all time highs though. Lets see if the market can get through, and stay above the previous high of April 1st. The DOW is almost there already.

Natural Gas finally showed some signs of life this week.
MDRX plunged on massive volume!

New all time highs:   AAP, CF, DG, DISCA, DKS, DLTR, EL, EQIX, EXPE, FDO,  LTD, KMB, MO, ORLY, SBH, SWI, PM, SPG, TJX, V, WPI, ...
All time lows:  FSLR
Pops: AAPL, AMZN, EXPE, CTXS, ECA, NUAN, REGN, SWI...
Drops: DECK, MDRX, NFLX, SBUX

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly jobs report on Friday!
Earnings season continues next week. Among the companies reporting are:

 ABX, BIIB, BP, CHK, CMI, EL, GM, PFE, PCLN, MA, V

Market Commentary

Earnings reports are winding down now so we'll need a new catalyst for the market. Maybe Europe. The  SPX did close above the 1390 level that I mentioned last week, and will likely move up to re-test the prior high of April 1st., so 'longs' should be OK for a while. Watch out for Friday's monthly jobs report too.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -back to the previous high?
DECK -high fliers always come back down
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

The 2009 rally is alive and well

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $104.93
Natural Gas was up finally, closing near $2.19
Gold was up, closing near $1665
30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $142.72
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 78.76

DBA -Agriculture/Commodities fund (approaching a buy?)

NEWS:
GDP Disappoints, but Stock Futures Rise!
Wall Street Bulls Will Battle Europe and the Economy
Wall St Week Ahead: In battle of the S&P, can bulls gain the edge?
Why the Amazon Naysayers Should Be Scared
Priceline Will Beat Apple And Google To $1,000
Farcebook: A Stratospheric Valuation
Chesapeake tangle goes far beyond CEO

The Fed Is Stuck
Claims for unemployment benefits are stuck near 3-month high
Dreaded IPO-crash signal flashes bear warnings
Natural Gas Has Nowhere To Go But Up
Double-Dip Recession in Britain
China’s property boom has peaked, forever
Three Reasons Japan’s Economic Pain Is Getting Worse

Stock Market Blog -Apr 22nd

We got a big unexpected rally on Tuesday, but gave back a lot of it by Friday. AAPL continued to show weakness, even on days when the market was up. They report earnings next Tuesday. MSFT and EBAY popped after reporting earnings. Also, troubles in Europe are starting to disrupt markets again.

New all time highs:  ABV, CB, CL, DISCA, DLTR, FDO, DKS, KMB, MO, ORLY, SBH, SPG, TSCO, UA,  YUM
All time lows:  UNG
Pops: EBAY, HGSI, ISRG, MSFT
Drops: AAPL, INTU, QCOM, RVBD, SNDK

Next week: Economic reports
We have a Fed meeting next week, though little is expected from it. Earnings season continues next week. Among the companies reporting are:

Mon: COP NFLX TXN
Tue:  T MMM AAPL AMGN BIDU
Wed: BA CAT
Thu:  AMZN XOM RDS.A SBUX
Fri:  CVX MRK PG

Market Commentary

Earnings will continue to drive market direction next week, especially with AAPL reporting on Tuesday. The Nasdaq and the Russell small-caps have been weak, but it's difficult to predict market direction at this point. We could be forming a bear flag pattern. On the other hand, if the SPX can close above the 1390 level, we could see some more bullish action.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -has the correction started?
WMT -5 year high; double top?

 NOK -will they recover with Microsoft?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $103.88
Natural Gas is still dropping, closing near $1.93
Gold was down, closing near $1643
30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $141.97
The US Dollar was down, closing near 79.32

NEWS:
Stocks End Mixed, Nasdaq Logs 3rd Weekly Loss
U.S. Stocks End Two-Week Slump, Led Higher by Defensive Shares
Earnings Deluge, Europe Will Drive the Market in Week Ahead
'Bad Goldilocks' Economy Puts Fed, Markets in a Box
Once-Mighty Apple Stock Plunges Over 10% in 10 Days
Microsoft Profit Tops Estimates on Corporate Demand

Could $1 Trillion student loan debt derail U.S. recovery?
Big Banks: Now Even Too Bigger to Fail
Euro Rises, Pound Lifts, Yen Awaits the Bank of Japan
The euro crisis is back, and resolving it is not getting any easier
Swimming naked in Brazil's bubbly waters
China's Drag on Commodity Markets

Stock Market Blog -Apr 15th

The market tumbled the most this week, since the rally began last December. AAPL, a strong market leader, was also down this week. GOOG dropped after reporting earnings and a stock split. Market concerns were focused on China slowing down, and problems in Europe resurfacing again. Copper prices have been falling this entire month, while Bonds have been on the rise. Natural Gas dropped below $2.00!

New all time highs:  CRM, CSTR, DISCA, DLTR, MO, MNST, ORLY, SBUX, TSCO, MA, V, YUM,
All time lows:  UNG
Pops: AOL, CSTR
Drops: BBY, GOOG, NOK, SNE

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings season gets in full swing next week. Among the companies reporting are:

Mon: C
Tue:  IBM, INTC, ISRG, GS, JNJ, KO, YHOO
Wed: AXP, YUM
Thu:  BAC, CMG, DD, MS, MSFT, VZ
Fri:  GE, HON, MCD

Market Commentary

Earnings will drive market direction next week, along with events in the Euro zone. We could be in for some more selling, maybe down to the 1350 or 1340 level on the S&P 500.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -has the correction started?

  UNG -no mercy! (Naural Gas ETF)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were flat, closing near $102.12
Natural Gas is still dropping, closing near $1.98
Gold was up, closing near $1652
30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $141.56
The US Dollar was flat, closing near 80.27

NEWS:
Stocks: Investors brace for volatility
Key Earnings Reports Next Week
Does Another Cruel Summer Lie Ahead For Stocks?
Google Shareholders Were Always Second Class: Analyst
Netflix’s Woes Go Deeper Than Headlines
Best Buy Plans to Close Another 42 Stores
Flood of foreclosures to hit the housing market

Global Market Outlook: The Pain In Spain Is Too Big To Be Contained
Sony plans to cut 10,000 jobs, reduce TV models
G20 Meets as Global Economy Hits Rough Patch
China loosens currency controls on the yuan

Stock Market Blog -Apr 8th

I stated last week that 'the market is long overdue for some kind of pause'. Well, we got it this week, and it may continue into next week, after the disappointing Jobs report on Friday. The US Dollar rallied, while everything priced in dollars dropped -gold, commodities, stocks, etc. Bonds rallied along with the dollar.

New all time highs: AAPL, BBBY, DISCA, DLTR, FDO, FOSL, LULU, MA, V, TJX, ROST, SBUX, SBH...
All time lows:  UNG
Pops: BBBY
Drops: GRPN, GLD, SNDK

Next week: Economic reports
A Disappointing Jobs report triggered a sell-off in the S&P500 futures on Friday morning (the regular market was closed for Good Friday). We'll see if there is any selling follow through next week.

Earnings reports:
Tue: AA
Wed: CAT
Thu: GOOG
Fri: JPM, WFC

Market Commentary

Next week marks the start of earnings season once again.We may be seeing the beginning of a correction here. Time will tell how deep the correction will be. The indexes have been range-bound for the past couple of weeks.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -has the correction started?
HD -overbought?
PCLN -overbought?
SBUX -overbought?

  PCLN vs. AAPL 

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down again, closing near $102.22
Natural Gas is still dropping, closing near $2.09
Gold dropped again, closing near $1643
30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $140.16
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.16

NEWS:
Earnings, Fed talk, economic data on tap next week
Weak Jobs Report, Earnings Season Could Test Market Bull
Ugly jobs report sparks bond rally
Stock futures, dollar sink after jobs data
'Sell in May and Go Away,' or Sell in April? 

One Month After Launch, PIMCO Total Return ETF Lives Up To The Hype
Greek pensioner kills himself before parliament
Did Gold Stocks Bottom Last Week?

Stock Market Blog -Apr 1st

This week the market was kind of sideways, as we closed out the best quarterly performance for stocks in 14 years. With any luck, the second quarter will also be a positive one, but after such a huge rally which started in December, the market is long overdue for some kind of pause. The Bond market meanwhile continues to be weak, but could rally if we get a dip in stocks.

Gold seems to be forming a base in the 1650 area, where it acted in a similar fashion last October before rallying again. The US Dollar has dropped to near the 78-79 level, and could start moving up again, which generally hurts stock prices. Also adding pressure to stock prices is rising gas prices. Lastly, Natural Gas prices continue to plummet.

This was a monster quarter for stocks like AAPL, IBM, AMLN, BAC, AAP, ORLY, CMG, MNST, DKS, LULU, HD, SPG, MA, V, FFIV, RVBD, VMW, LNKD, PCLN, ROST, TJX, SBUX, YUM, TSCO, etc. AAPL pulled back $20 from the high this week.

New all time highs:   DISCA, EQIX, FDO, IBM, MNST, ORLY, PM, SBUX, SPG, TJX,
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects! Also TVIX
Pops:  LIZ
Drops: BBY

Next week: Economic reports
Monthly Jobs report at the end of the week. The stock market is closed on Friday -Happy Easter to all.

Market Commentary

We did get a rally to finish off the quarter! My comment last week: "This week's pullback might be a set-up for another rally into the end of the quarter."

Now we look forward to the Jobs report next week, and the start of earnings season the following week to kick off the second quarter. I expect we'll see a pullback from this huge 1st quarter rally at some point.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -a pullback or consolidation next week?
Gold


Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down again, closing near $103.02
Natural Gas keeps dropping, closing near $2.12
Gold recovered a bit, closing near $1672
30 year Bond futures were up, then dropped on Friday, closing near $137.75
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.14

NEWS:
U.S. stocks notch best first quarter since 1998
Wall Street looks to extend the rally into April
As Market Heads Into April, 'Where Is the Pullback?'
Why The Rally In Stocks May Come To An End During Q2
U.S. job growth seen tapering off slightly
VXX Will Not Repeat TVIX's 60% Drop, But Holders Should Sell Into Any Rally

Credit card processor hit by hackers
Why I'm Convinced We're Still In A Bull Market For Gold
Euro Rises as EU Ministers Boost Crisis Firewall
Next Up: Spanish Bailout?
10 Reasons Why The Reign Of The Dollar As The World Reserve Currency Is About To Come To An End

Stock Market Blog -Mar 25th

The market pulled back this week, though leading stocks seemed to hold their ground, so the rally may not be over yet (we still have to finish out the quarter). Oil and gas prices remain at elevated levels, and I expect this will eventually take a toll on on investor bullishness.  We saw another mini 'flash crash' on Friday on the Bats exchange (ironically, on the day Bats was supposed to go public!) Bonds rallied as stocks dipped lower.

New all time highs:   AAPL, ABV, ACN, CMG, DFS, DG, DKS, MNST, NUS, PM, PX, RGR, SPG, SBUX, XRT
All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS, TZA -the usual suspects! Also throw in: VXX, TVIX
Pops:  LULU, RGR, WDC...
Drops: KBH (home builders), NKE

Beware of leveraged ETFs/ETNs that don't accurately track their underlying.

BTW -that's a drop from 450 to 17 vs. a drop from 45 to 15!!

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings reports from BBY and RIMM.

Market Commentary

This week's pullback might be a set-up for another rally into the end of the quarter. Also keep in mind however, the VIX (volatility indicator -chart above) is at a 'low' point which suggests we could soon see a reversal in this market rally.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -one more rally coming this week?


Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were down a bit, closing near $106.87
Natural Gas was down some more, closing near $2.27
Gold recovered a bit, closing near $1662
30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks pulled back, closing near $137.81
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.57

NEWS:
U.S. stocks close tough week on bright note
First Quarter On Track to Be Best in 14 years
Is The VIX Flashing A Buy Signal?
Federal Reserve Stress Tests Make Us All Muppets
Apple: New iPad Sales Total 3 Million
IPad: The PC Killer

TVIX Plummets Nearly 30% Despite Rallying VIX (TVIX, VXX)
Bank of America Tests Rental Program as Alternative to Foreclosure 
Food Stamp Usage Continues To Set Records
Spain Is Not Out of the Woods Yet

Stock Market Blog -Mar 18th

The market continued to move higher, helped by the Fed on Tuesday, and also by AAPL. The NASDAQ broke over the 3000 level, which it first crossed in 1999!

Banks also rallied as results of the stress test were mostly positive. Bonds have been slowly falling in value and finally started selling off this week after the Fed meeting. Gold also dropped, while Oil maintained  lofty levels. Natural Gas prices continued to linger at 10 year lows.

New all time highs:   BUD, CMG, DG, HLF, IBM, MHS, NKE, PM, SBUX, SPG

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS -the usual suspects!
Pops:  Banks! (stress test). Also AAPL of course.
Drops:

S&P 500: 3rd time crossing above 1400 in the past 12 years

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Earnings reports from NKE, ORCL, RIMM, and LULU

Market Commentary

The S&P500 broke out above last year's high, which could be a bullish sign. We closed the week over the 1400 level. Looks like we could close out this 1st quarter with a bang! AAPL continues to drive higher, helping the NASDAQ and the S&P500 because it is a large component of those indexes. The small cap Russell 2000 is still lagging (IWM); maybe we'll see it break out in the coming weeks. I expect the rally will continue into the end of the 1st quarter.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -broke 'above' resistance this week (so much for a double top...)
Natural Gas -how long will these low prices hold?
SBUX -coffee's still hot!
Bonds -breaking down (below)

 Bonds finally broke down

The VIX (volatility index) is approaching a bottom again -is the stock rally 'almost' over?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were unchanged, closing near $107.06
Natural Gas was up slightly, closing near $2.33
Gold sold off again, closing near $1655
30 year Bond futures dropped (chart below), closing near $136.44
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.08

NEWS:
U.S. stock indexes end 2.4% up for week
Stock Market Today Ends Mixed, But At Multiyear Highs
Treasurys fall to end worst week since July
Is the bond bubble finally bursting? 
America’s recovery is neither robust nor dramatic. But it is real
Here Comes The 2012 Tidal Wave Of Foreclosures
How to Spot a Company That's at the Top of its Game
Apple continues to defy gravity as stock hits $600
It's not your father's Nasdaq 3,000
This market is headed higher

Is MF Global Getting a Free Pass?
Coal, Oil, Solar Stocks Rally On Multitude Of Causes
Natural gas: U.S. energy market’s best bargain?
Scarce Oil? U.S. Has 60 Times More Than Obama Claims
Brace for China's impending crash

Stock Market Blog -Mar 11th

The market dropped early in the week, only to rally back up again, ending mostly flat for the week. We got 'some' closure to the Greece situation (again!). Basically, Greece officially defaulted on their debt this week. Also, a good 'Jobs' report on Friday helped stocks to rally. Meanwhile, gas prices continue to climb.

Bonds continued to drop -looking weak for 2012! Maybe Bonds topped on Dec 19th, when the stock market rally started.

New all time highs:  ABV, BWLD, CCI, CMG, COH, DG, DKS, HLF, ISRG, IBM, KMI, LULU, MHS, MNST, NKE, ORLY, ROST, TJX, SBUX, CVS, NKE, PETM, SBH, UA, YUM, XRT (retailers), and more...

All time lows:  FAZ, QID, SDS -the usual suspects!
Pops:  SBUX, SWHC
Drops: GMCR, MCD

Weekly Unemployment claims

Next week: Economic reports
Another Fed meeting is scheduled this week, and we get quarterly Options expiration on Friday.

Market Commentary

The market re-bounded nicely this week to the previous high of a week earlier, and could be setting up for a double top here. Volume was somewhat low on this week's rally. The market could just hold up at these levels a while longer, as quarterly Options expiration approaches on Friday. Keep your powder dry till we get a better sense of direction from here.
 
This week's charts:
S&P 500 -setting up for a double top?
HPQ -Ugly chart! (DOW tech stock)
IBM -Pretty chart (DOW tech stock)
BP -can it break out over $50?
SBUX -how far can coffee go?
CMG -how far can Mexican fast food go?

INTC approaching a multi-year high

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up a bit, closing near $107.13
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.28 -a 10 year low!
Gold was mostly flat, closing near $1713
30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $140.53
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 79.99

NEWS:
Stocks: Bull market enters fourth year
Time To Change Trading Strategy
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Set to Default on $5.27 Million GO Bond Payments
Starbucks Will Roast Green Mountain: Analyst
BofA to slash mortgage balances by $100,000 or more
More Boomers Selling Homes, but Who Will Buy Them?
iPad pre-sales sold out worldwide in two days

Import surge sends China trade to decade-deep deficit
Greece Default Is Official; Insurance Payouts Triggered