Stock Market Blog -Jun 10th

The market rallied this week, the biggest rally for the year -no real news though. The prior week we saw one of the biggest drops for the year -so now we're even :)

Bond futures pulled back from extreme levels (in price). Oil looks like it's trying to put in a bottom around $85. The US dollar continued to pull back, indicating higher prices for stocks and commodities.

New all time highs:  DIS DG EXPE PETM UA
All time lows:  ANR

Pops:  ULTA WMT
Drops:  LULU TPX

Next week: Economic reports Options and Futures expiration on Friday.

Market Commentary

The market reversed up this week, catching a lot of people off guard. June expiration is coming up next Friday (options and futures), and all the shorts will be squeezed, driving the market even higher! This is a 'quarterly' expiration cycle. Also everyone that bought bonds for 'safety' will be disappointed too. Welcome to Mr. Market!

Longer term though, the trend is still down, unless this upcoming week proves otherwise.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -if this reversal holds, that was the bottom!
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was up a bit, closing near $84.10
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $2.30
Gold dropped, closing near $1591
The 30 year Bond pulled back from the huge rally, closing near $149.22
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 82.56

NEWS:
Stocks: Best week of 2012
Apple: It's The Week We've All Been Waiting For
When the Chinese Cut Rates It's Time to Worry
A Perfect Failure: Why the 401(k) Has Been a Flop
Some Sun Shines on Chinese Solar Companies
Spain seeks $125 billion in EU aid for banks

Stock Market Blog -Jun 3rd

More red ink in the market this week as Europe's problems linger on, and US problems linger on! The monthly jobs report on Friday was a huge disappointment, and the market let us know that. Meanwhile Bonds soared as investors fled to so-called safe havens. That too will be a disappointment one day. The 10 year Note yield plunged to a record low! In Germany, yields on 2 year Notes went negative!

Gold rallied almost $60 after the jobs report on Friday.

New highs: DF DUK
New lows:  DELL FB FSLR ACI/ANR/BTU

Pops:  DUK, ABX (most gold stocks)
Drops:  YUM, LVS

Next week: Economic reports 
The Fed testifies before Congress on Thursday...

Investors fled to Gold and Bonds this week!

Market Commentary

The downward spiral continues, with the next stop around 1250 on the S&P500, where I think we'll see some capitulation and a bounce. We are at support levels in the Euro FX, as well as other indices. Bonds are at crazy levels. On any drop from here, I think the risk/reward favors being long the S&P (or your index of choice), and short Bonds (TLT or Bond futures). Selling July 'Put Spreads' on the SPY/QQQ/IWM as the market moves toward support, might be a safe way to play for a bounce (OptionsMakeSense).

Beaten down Gold stocks may be starting a new rally???  GDX, GDXJ, GG, AUY, EGO, etc.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -nearing support again? 1250..ish?
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

May sell-off

How much higher will Bonds go???

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices continued to slide, again, closing near $83.23
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $2.33
Gold rallied, closing near $1622
30 year Bond did a huge rally, closing near $152.63
The US Dollar rallied again as the Euro fell, closing near 82.98

NEWS:
U.S. stocks fall 2%-plus, adding to week’s gloom
Are Stocks About to Repeat Their Summer Horror Show?
Treasuries Surge as Dow Erases 2012 Gain
Europe, Fed-watching to dominate next week
Microsoft reinvents the wheel with Windows 8
Facebook closes below IPO price range

Well, We've Officially Had A "Correction!" But Stocks Still Aren't Cheap
German 2-Year Yield Drops Below Zero as Crisis Deepens
Europe Fears Bailout of Spain Would Strain Its Resources
Watching A Global Depression Develop In Slow Motion

Stock Market Blog -May 27th

We got some attempts to rally this week, but the problems in the Euro region continue to weigh on the market. The up-trend is broken for now as you can see in the chart below (relative to the 50 period Moving Average). Also, both Bonds and Gold could be near a turning point.

New all time highs: BBBY HAIN
All time lows:  LDK

Pops:  WMT rallied...
Drops:  DELL LOW NTAP PCX

Next week: Economic reports  Markets are closed on Monday
The monthly 'jobs' report is due on Friday -could be a market mover.

The Euro may have a little more downside left...

Market Commentary

We got a little bit of a bounce, but the market is still weak, and the bigger trend is to the downside. We could see bounces along the way though. As the Euro drops and the Dollar rallies, stocks will continue to be under pressure.


This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -nearing support?
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

Nokia -25 years of nothing?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices continued to slide, closing near $90.86
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $2.57
Gold dropped a bit, closing near $1569
30 year Bond dropped a bit, closing near $147.72
The US Dollar rallied as the Euro fell, closing near 82.53

NEWS:
Europe Has Wall Street's Bull on a Short Leash
More Downside Ahead
HP cuts 27,000 jobs...
Dell Drops as Profit, Forecast Miss Estimates on PC Slump
Google wins patent verdict in Oracle trial
Yoshikami: Four Things You Need to Know About Gold Now

Stock Market Blog -May 20th

The market continued to sell-off this week as the Euro dropped and pushed the dollar up. Oil also sold off, and Bonds rallied. WMT, VZ, T, and maybe PFE were the only DOW stocks holding up.

Euro concerns will continue to weigh on the market until the issues with Greece and then Spain (and maybe more) get resolved.  This non-stop market sell-off has taken back most of the huge gains from the rally that started last December. We could maybe see a turnaround next week.

New all time highs: ?? 52 Week highs:    VZ, WMT
All time lows: ANR FSLR SVU ZNGA

Pops:  WMT
Drops:  AAP, ADSK, ANF, AZO, JCP,

Next week: Economic reports
Companies reporting Earnings next week include: AZO, BBY, COST, DELL, HPQ, LOW, TIF

Market Commentary

 The technicals point to a very oversold condition, but I think we could see a bit more selling before a turnaround (maybe capitulation?). This sets up some nice potential 'long' trades on the indexes (like the SPY) using 'Put Credit Spreads'.  You can also look at maybe shorting Bonds (or TLT).

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -broke support
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

More carnage...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices dropped further, closing near $91.48
Natural Gas continued to rally, closing near $2.74
Gold was up, closing near $1591
30 year Bond futures rallied again as stocks dropped, closing near $148.31
The US Dollar rallied as the Euro fell, closing near 81.43

US Dollar -double top??

NEWS:
Stocks Log Worst Week in 2012; FB Closes Flat
Week Ahead: Europe May Rattle the Market's Cage
What Dow Theory says about correction
Treasuries Gain for the Ninth Week, US Stocks Extend Losses
When will the sell-off end?
Short Trade Is Getting Crowded
Facebook IPO fails to ‘pop’ in rough debut
Regulators Snooze While JPMorgan Lights the Fuse

Stock Market Blog -May 13th

This week we saw a drop in stocks and commodities as the US dollar rallied, and the Euro dipped below 130. Problems in Spain and Greece continue to escalate. Gold dropped below $1600. Financials dropped after JP Morgan announced a $2 billion trading loss, and CSCO dropped after reporting earnings. Otherwise, everything was normal :)

New all time highs:   DDS DNKN HAIN  WYN
All time lows: FSLR GRPN ZNGA RSH

Pops:  ARNA DDS MNST SODA
Drops: CRM CSCO CTSH JPM FOSL DISCA M MAKO MELI  RAX SNE

Next week: Economic reports 
Companies reporting Earnings next week include: HD JCP TGT WMT
Also look out for the upcoming Facebook IPO. Options expiration next week too.

Market Commentary

 We continue to see weakness in the market, though we are now at a support level, and could see a bounce in the S&P 500. Longer term though, the up-trend has been broken for now. Bonds have been showing surprising strength, and could continue higher. Gold equities have have shown major weakness in the past few months too, though I think we might be approaching a nice 'buy' level on the GLD or the GDX.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -broke support
Gold -long term
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

What you don't want to see happen to your stock! Part 2

What you do want...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $96.13
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $2.51
Gold was down again, closing near $1584
30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks dropped, closing near $145.13
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.41

Sony: 25 years of nothing??

NEWS:
Dow Drops Most in 2012 as Europe Concern Resurfaces
S&P 500 flirts with two-month low before rebound
Wall Street Week Ahead: Stocks face choppy seas of bank woes, uncertainty
U.S. 10-Year Notes Add to Longest Gain Since ’88
JPMorgan $2 billion loss hits shares, dents image
Stock Trading Is Still Falling After ’08 Crisis
California Deficit Swells to $16 Billion, Governor Says (Update 1)

Euro at 3-1/2-month low as debt crisis fears rise
Spanish government rescues fourth largest lender, Bankia
Greece sinks deeper into crisis, chance of govt fades
China Lowers Banks’ Reserve Requirements to Support Growth

Stock Market Blog -May 6th

Equity markets took a hit this week as we got more dismal numbers from the monthly jobs report. European concerns continue to weigh on the market (France also elected a new leader on Sunday). As the futures markets opened on Sunday night, the Russell 2000 index dropped further and broke a support level from early March. The US Dollar also rallied against world currencies. Oil plunged back below $100.

Looks like we're beginning to slowly take back the December rally...
AAPL gave up most of its huge gains from last week too.
HLF was slaughtered, and GMCR coffee roasters were roasted! (charts below)

New all time highs:   HAIN HSY PZZA PSMT WFM (all food related!)
All time lows:  FSLR, GRPN

Pops: BKS FIRE LNKD PFCB PZZA TRIP WFM
Drops: GMCR, HLF, NUS, PEET, RIMM

Next week: Economic reports  Companies reporting Earnings next week include: CSCO, DIS, M, NVDA, NUAN, PCLN, TM

Market Commentary

Instead of going higher, the market turned around this week (at 1400 on the S&P 500). This seems to indicate further weakness ahead so I'd be cautious. Futures markets are already down now on Sunday night. I mentioned Europe last week, and it did in fact prove to be a catalyst for the market to move down further. We could see some support on the S&P 500 around 1350 (where it's currently trading on Sunday night).

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -could break support this week
OMX -approaching March 2009 lows (earnings this week)
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

What you don't want to see happen to your stock!

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices plunged, closing near $98.49
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $2.28
Gold was down, closing near $1645
30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks dropped, closing near $144.06
The US Dollar was up, closing near 79.59

HD -last man standing in the DOW?

NEWS:
Stocks Could Face More Turbulence in the Week Ahead
40 Percent Upward Move in Stocks Coming?
Stock Market Behavior Signals Caution
U.S. Hiring Slows Sharply With Just 115,000 Jobs Added in April
Q1 earnings season wrap-up: IT continues to shine
Mutual Fund Investors Are Wising Up
The 86 million invisible unemployed
What Are The Bond Markets Trying To Tell Us?
Facebook Frenzy Begins
5 reasons to not 'like' Facebook's IPO

Delta Airlines buys oil refinery
Socialist Hollande in, Sarkozy out, as France elects a new president
Europe's next recession risk: Germany
Why Wall Street fears a Socialist French leader
Market Reforms a Game Changer for China Stocks
China Mobile Sits On A 3G Gold Mine With One Billion Mobile Subscribers

Stock Market Blog -April 29th

The DOW is back over 13000! We got a nice rally this week, helped along by AAPL and AMZN after they reported earnings. GDP numbers were weak, Unemployment numbers were weak, and Spain was downgraded, but that didn't seem to  matter to the market. Britain is also reported to be in a recession again!

Lots of stocks with new all time highs though. Lets see if the market can get through, and stay above the previous high of April 1st. The DOW is almost there already.

Natural Gas finally showed some signs of life this week.
MDRX plunged on massive volume!

New all time highs:   AAP, CF, DG, DISCA, DKS, DLTR, EL, EQIX, EXPE, FDO,  LTD, KMB, MO, ORLY, SBH, SWI, PM, SPG, TJX, V, WPI, ...
All time lows:  FSLR
Pops: AAPL, AMZN, EXPE, CTXS, ECA, NUAN, REGN, SWI...
Drops: DECK, MDRX, NFLX, SBUX

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly jobs report on Friday!
Earnings season continues next week. Among the companies reporting are:

 ABX, BIIB, BP, CHK, CMI, EL, GM, PFE, PCLN, MA, V

Market Commentary

Earnings reports are winding down now so we'll need a new catalyst for the market. Maybe Europe. The  SPX did close above the 1390 level that I mentioned last week, and will likely move up to re-test the prior high of April 1st., so 'longs' should be OK for a while. Watch out for Friday's monthly jobs report too.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -back to the previous high?
DECK -high fliers always come back down
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

The 2009 rally is alive and well

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $104.93
Natural Gas was up finally, closing near $2.19
Gold was up, closing near $1665
30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $142.72
The US Dollar was down again, closing near 78.76

DBA -Agriculture/Commodities fund (approaching a buy?)

NEWS:
GDP Disappoints, but Stock Futures Rise!
Wall Street Bulls Will Battle Europe and the Economy
Wall St Week Ahead: In battle of the S&P, can bulls gain the edge?
Why the Amazon Naysayers Should Be Scared
Priceline Will Beat Apple And Google To $1,000
Farcebook: A Stratospheric Valuation
Chesapeake tangle goes far beyond CEO

The Fed Is Stuck
Claims for unemployment benefits are stuck near 3-month high
Dreaded IPO-crash signal flashes bear warnings
Natural Gas Has Nowhere To Go But Up
Double-Dip Recession in Britain
China’s property boom has peaked, forever
Three Reasons Japan’s Economic Pain Is Getting Worse

Stock Market Blog -Apr 22nd

We got a big unexpected rally on Tuesday, but gave back a lot of it by Friday. AAPL continued to show weakness, even on days when the market was up. They report earnings next Tuesday. MSFT and EBAY popped after reporting earnings. Also, troubles in Europe are starting to disrupt markets again.

New all time highs:  ABV, CB, CL, DISCA, DLTR, FDO, DKS, KMB, MO, ORLY, SBH, SPG, TSCO, UA,  YUM
All time lows:  UNG
Pops: EBAY, HGSI, ISRG, MSFT
Drops: AAPL, INTU, QCOM, RVBD, SNDK

Next week: Economic reports
We have a Fed meeting next week, though little is expected from it. Earnings season continues next week. Among the companies reporting are:

Mon: COP NFLX TXN
Tue:  T MMM AAPL AMGN BIDU
Wed: BA CAT
Thu:  AMZN XOM RDS.A SBUX
Fri:  CVX MRK PG

Market Commentary

Earnings will continue to drive market direction next week, especially with AAPL reporting on Tuesday. The Nasdaq and the Russell small-caps have been weak, but it's difficult to predict market direction at this point. We could be forming a bear flag pattern. On the other hand, if the SPX can close above the 1390 level, we could see some more bullish action.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -has the correction started?
WMT -5 year high; double top?

 NOK -will they recover with Microsoft?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $103.88
Natural Gas is still dropping, closing near $1.93
Gold was down, closing near $1643
30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $141.97
The US Dollar was down, closing near 79.32

NEWS:
Stocks End Mixed, Nasdaq Logs 3rd Weekly Loss
U.S. Stocks End Two-Week Slump, Led Higher by Defensive Shares
Earnings Deluge, Europe Will Drive the Market in Week Ahead
'Bad Goldilocks' Economy Puts Fed, Markets in a Box
Once-Mighty Apple Stock Plunges Over 10% in 10 Days
Microsoft Profit Tops Estimates on Corporate Demand

Could $1 Trillion student loan debt derail U.S. recovery?
Big Banks: Now Even Too Bigger to Fail
Euro Rises, Pound Lifts, Yen Awaits the Bank of Japan
The euro crisis is back, and resolving it is not getting any easier
Swimming naked in Brazil's bubbly waters
China's Drag on Commodity Markets