Stock Market Blog -Jun 24th

The market dropped this week, seemingly after the Fed failed to announce any new stimulus for the economy. Bonds dropped a bit too -they usually go in opposite directions. Gold, Silver, and Oil dropped as well. Moody's also downgraded 15 large banks!

New all time highs:  FF DG  MJN N ONXX QCOR TRIP WFM V VZ
All time lows:  TVIX

Pops:  ARNA ONXX
Drops:  BBBY CELG PG R WAG

Next week: Economic reports

Earnings reports from: FDO, GIS,  MON, NKE, and RIMM

Market Commentary

The market reversed the up-trend for now, after the big drop on Thursday. We're still in a market without any real direction, and I still think we could see the rally continue before we hit earnings season in July. Meanwhile, there are some good potential trades in market leaders and momentum stocks while we wait for the bigger trend to setup.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -more up-side next week?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was down again, closing near $79.76
Natural Gas was up a bit, closing near $2.63
Gold was down, closing near $1567
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $149.34
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 82.44

NEWS:Stocks: Global economy in focus
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3 picks for the natural gas boom
Five Leading Stocks Approaching New 52-Week Highs
Emerging-Market Stocks Drop From Two-Week High On China, Spain
Why it's time to outlaw credit default swaps
Hacker claims mass bank breach; releases Visa, Mastercard data

Warning: There could be a devastating gold collapse ahead
Why Oil Prices Will Keep Falling: Record Pumping
China, Brazil in $30 billion-currency swap deal
As Growth Ebbs, Brazil Powers Up Its Bulldozers

Stock Market Blog -Jun 17th

The market rallied again this week, making it two in a row. Events in Europe over this weekend (Greece election), along with Egypt elections, a G20 meeting, and a Fed meeting, all will make for a very busy market next week.

New all time highs: 
ATHN DG DIS DLTR EQIX EXPE FDO PETM PGN ROST QCOR SO UA WFM
All time lows:  PCX

Pops: 
Drops:  NOK

Next week: Economic reports

Earnings reports from FDX and ORCL

Market Commentary

The market downtrend may have reversed for now, though this coming week has multiple events which can easily cause a change in direction. When there are so many news events pending, it's best to stay on the sidelines, or maybe sell some volatility in the options market. We saw similar volatility in May and June of 2011 (below). We could see the rally continue before we hit earnings season in July.

Last week's call for a rally into options expiration worked out well too!

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -another rally next week?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $84.03
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $2.47
Gold was up, closing near $1628
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $150.22
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 81.60

NEWS:Stocks End Up 1% on Stimulus Hopes; FB Soars
Stocks: Investors keep eyes pinned on Greece
Look Out Below! This S&P Sector Could Drop Up to 46%
Nokia To Cut 10,000 Jobs As Elop Tries To Stanch Losses
Baidu: A Growth Story That Is Broken, With A $90-$100 Price Target

Short-Term Gold Options Get Physical
Natural Gas Prices Surge Over Surprise Outlook
G20 leaders to meet in shadow of Europe crisis
Greeks Will Vote 'With Emotions' as World Watches

Stock Market Blog -Jun 10th

The market rallied this week, the biggest rally for the year -no real news though. The prior week we saw one of the biggest drops for the year -so now we're even :)

Bond futures pulled back from extreme levels (in price). Oil looks like it's trying to put in a bottom around $85. The US dollar continued to pull back, indicating higher prices for stocks and commodities.

New all time highs:  DIS DG EXPE PETM UA
All time lows:  ANR

Pops:  ULTA WMT
Drops:  LULU TPX

Next week: Economic reports Options and Futures expiration on Friday.

Market Commentary

The market reversed up this week, catching a lot of people off guard. June expiration is coming up next Friday (options and futures), and all the shorts will be squeezed, driving the market even higher! This is a 'quarterly' expiration cycle. Also everyone that bought bonds for 'safety' will be disappointed too. Welcome to Mr. Market!

Longer term though, the trend is still down, unless this upcoming week proves otherwise.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -if this reversal holds, that was the bottom!
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was up a bit, closing near $84.10
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $2.30
Gold dropped, closing near $1591
The 30 year Bond pulled back from the huge rally, closing near $149.22
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 82.56

NEWS:
Stocks: Best week of 2012
Apple: It's The Week We've All Been Waiting For
When the Chinese Cut Rates It's Time to Worry
A Perfect Failure: Why the 401(k) Has Been a Flop
Some Sun Shines on Chinese Solar Companies
Spain seeks $125 billion in EU aid for banks

Stock Market Blog -Jun 3rd

More red ink in the market this week as Europe's problems linger on, and US problems linger on! The monthly jobs report on Friday was a huge disappointment, and the market let us know that. Meanwhile Bonds soared as investors fled to so-called safe havens. That too will be a disappointment one day. The 10 year Note yield plunged to a record low! In Germany, yields on 2 year Notes went negative!

Gold rallied almost $60 after the jobs report on Friday.

New highs: DF DUK
New lows:  DELL FB FSLR ACI/ANR/BTU

Pops:  DUK, ABX (most gold stocks)
Drops:  YUM, LVS

Next week: Economic reports 
The Fed testifies before Congress on Thursday...

Investors fled to Gold and Bonds this week!

Market Commentary

The downward spiral continues, with the next stop around 1250 on the S&P500, where I think we'll see some capitulation and a bounce. We are at support levels in the Euro FX, as well as other indices. Bonds are at crazy levels. On any drop from here, I think the risk/reward favors being long the S&P (or your index of choice), and short Bonds (TLT or Bond futures). Selling July 'Put Spreads' on the SPY/QQQ/IWM as the market moves toward support, might be a safe way to play for a bounce (OptionsMakeSense).

Beaten down Gold stocks may be starting a new rally???  GDX, GDXJ, GG, AUY, EGO, etc.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -nearing support again? 1250..ish?
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

May sell-off

How much higher will Bonds go???

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices continued to slide, again, closing near $83.23
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $2.33
Gold rallied, closing near $1622
30 year Bond did a huge rally, closing near $152.63
The US Dollar rallied again as the Euro fell, closing near 82.98

NEWS:
U.S. stocks fall 2%-plus, adding to week’s gloom
Are Stocks About to Repeat Their Summer Horror Show?
Treasuries Surge as Dow Erases 2012 Gain
Europe, Fed-watching to dominate next week
Microsoft reinvents the wheel with Windows 8
Facebook closes below IPO price range

Well, We've Officially Had A "Correction!" But Stocks Still Aren't Cheap
German 2-Year Yield Drops Below Zero as Crisis Deepens
Europe Fears Bailout of Spain Would Strain Its Resources
Watching A Global Depression Develop In Slow Motion

Stock Market Blog -May 27th

We got some attempts to rally this week, but the problems in the Euro region continue to weigh on the market. The up-trend is broken for now as you can see in the chart below (relative to the 50 period Moving Average). Also, both Bonds and Gold could be near a turning point.

New all time highs: BBBY HAIN
All time lows:  LDK

Pops:  WMT rallied...
Drops:  DELL LOW NTAP PCX

Next week: Economic reports  Markets are closed on Monday
The monthly 'jobs' report is due on Friday -could be a market mover.

The Euro may have a little more downside left...

Market Commentary

We got a little bit of a bounce, but the market is still weak, and the bigger trend is to the downside. We could see bounces along the way though. As the Euro drops and the Dollar rallies, stocks will continue to be under pressure.


This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -nearing support?
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

Nokia -25 years of nothing?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices continued to slide, closing near $90.86
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $2.57
Gold dropped a bit, closing near $1569
30 year Bond dropped a bit, closing near $147.72
The US Dollar rallied as the Euro fell, closing near 82.53

NEWS:
Europe Has Wall Street's Bull on a Short Leash
More Downside Ahead
HP cuts 27,000 jobs...
Dell Drops as Profit, Forecast Miss Estimates on PC Slump
Google wins patent verdict in Oracle trial
Yoshikami: Four Things You Need to Know About Gold Now

Stock Market Blog -May 20th

The market continued to sell-off this week as the Euro dropped and pushed the dollar up. Oil also sold off, and Bonds rallied. WMT, VZ, T, and maybe PFE were the only DOW stocks holding up.

Euro concerns will continue to weigh on the market until the issues with Greece and then Spain (and maybe more) get resolved.  This non-stop market sell-off has taken back most of the huge gains from the rally that started last December. We could maybe see a turnaround next week.

New all time highs: ?? 52 Week highs:    VZ, WMT
All time lows: ANR FSLR SVU ZNGA

Pops:  WMT
Drops:  AAP, ADSK, ANF, AZO, JCP,

Next week: Economic reports
Companies reporting Earnings next week include: AZO, BBY, COST, DELL, HPQ, LOW, TIF

Market Commentary

 The technicals point to a very oversold condition, but I think we could see a bit more selling before a turnaround (maybe capitulation?). This sets up some nice potential 'long' trades on the indexes (like the SPY) using 'Put Credit Spreads'.  You can also look at maybe shorting Bonds (or TLT).

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -broke support
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

More carnage...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices dropped further, closing near $91.48
Natural Gas continued to rally, closing near $2.74
Gold was up, closing near $1591
30 year Bond futures rallied again as stocks dropped, closing near $148.31
The US Dollar rallied as the Euro fell, closing near 81.43

US Dollar -double top??

NEWS:
Stocks Log Worst Week in 2012; FB Closes Flat
Week Ahead: Europe May Rattle the Market's Cage
What Dow Theory says about correction
Treasuries Gain for the Ninth Week, US Stocks Extend Losses
When will the sell-off end?
Short Trade Is Getting Crowded
Facebook IPO fails to ‘pop’ in rough debut
Regulators Snooze While JPMorgan Lights the Fuse

Stock Market Blog -May 13th

This week we saw a drop in stocks and commodities as the US dollar rallied, and the Euro dipped below 130. Problems in Spain and Greece continue to escalate. Gold dropped below $1600. Financials dropped after JP Morgan announced a $2 billion trading loss, and CSCO dropped after reporting earnings. Otherwise, everything was normal :)

New all time highs:   DDS DNKN HAIN  WYN
All time lows: FSLR GRPN ZNGA RSH

Pops:  ARNA DDS MNST SODA
Drops: CRM CSCO CTSH JPM FOSL DISCA M MAKO MELI  RAX SNE

Next week: Economic reports 
Companies reporting Earnings next week include: HD JCP TGT WMT
Also look out for the upcoming Facebook IPO. Options expiration next week too.

Market Commentary

 We continue to see weakness in the market, though we are now at a support level, and could see a bounce in the S&P 500. Longer term though, the up-trend has been broken for now. Bonds have been showing surprising strength, and could continue higher. Gold equities have have shown major weakness in the past few months too, though I think we might be approaching a nice 'buy' level on the GLD or the GDX.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -broke support
Gold -long term
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

What you don't want to see happen to your stock! Part 2

What you do want...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $96.13
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $2.51
Gold was down again, closing near $1584
30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks dropped, closing near $145.13
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.41

Sony: 25 years of nothing??

NEWS:
Dow Drops Most in 2012 as Europe Concern Resurfaces
S&P 500 flirts with two-month low before rebound
Wall Street Week Ahead: Stocks face choppy seas of bank woes, uncertainty
U.S. 10-Year Notes Add to Longest Gain Since ’88
JPMorgan $2 billion loss hits shares, dents image
Stock Trading Is Still Falling After ’08 Crisis
California Deficit Swells to $16 Billion, Governor Says (Update 1)

Euro at 3-1/2-month low as debt crisis fears rise
Spanish government rescues fourth largest lender, Bankia
Greece sinks deeper into crisis, chance of govt fades
China Lowers Banks’ Reserve Requirements to Support Growth

Stock Market Blog -May 6th

Equity markets took a hit this week as we got more dismal numbers from the monthly jobs report. European concerns continue to weigh on the market (France also elected a new leader on Sunday). As the futures markets opened on Sunday night, the Russell 2000 index dropped further and broke a support level from early March. The US Dollar also rallied against world currencies. Oil plunged back below $100.

Looks like we're beginning to slowly take back the December rally...
AAPL gave up most of its huge gains from last week too.
HLF was slaughtered, and GMCR coffee roasters were roasted! (charts below)

New all time highs:   HAIN HSY PZZA PSMT WFM (all food related!)
All time lows:  FSLR, GRPN

Pops: BKS FIRE LNKD PFCB PZZA TRIP WFM
Drops: GMCR, HLF, NUS, PEET, RIMM

Next week: Economic reports  Companies reporting Earnings next week include: CSCO, DIS, M, NVDA, NUAN, PCLN, TM

Market Commentary

Instead of going higher, the market turned around this week (at 1400 on the S&P 500). This seems to indicate further weakness ahead so I'd be cautious. Futures markets are already down now on Sunday night. I mentioned Europe last week, and it did in fact prove to be a catalyst for the market to move down further. We could see some support on the S&P 500 around 1350 (where it's currently trading on Sunday night).

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -could break support this week
OMX -approaching March 2009 lows (earnings this week)
OptionsMakeSense -trade ideas

What you don't want to see happen to your stock!

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil prices plunged, closing near $98.49
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $2.28
Gold was down, closing near $1645
30 year Bond futures rallied as stocks dropped, closing near $144.06
The US Dollar was up, closing near 79.59

HD -last man standing in the DOW?

NEWS:
Stocks Could Face More Turbulence in the Week Ahead
40 Percent Upward Move in Stocks Coming?
Stock Market Behavior Signals Caution
U.S. Hiring Slows Sharply With Just 115,000 Jobs Added in April
Q1 earnings season wrap-up: IT continues to shine
Mutual Fund Investors Are Wising Up
The 86 million invisible unemployed
What Are The Bond Markets Trying To Tell Us?
Facebook Frenzy Begins
5 reasons to not 'like' Facebook's IPO

Delta Airlines buys oil refinery
Socialist Hollande in, Sarkozy out, as France elects a new president
Europe's next recession risk: Germany
Why Wall Street fears a Socialist French leader
Market Reforms a Game Changer for China Stocks
China Mobile Sits On A 3G Gold Mine With One Billion Mobile Subscribers