Stock Market Blog -Aug 12th

Stocks continued the rally this week, although at a slower pace and with light volume. Bonds dropped as stocks rallied. Gold rallied a bit too. Next week we get earnings from a few more DOW companies. Corn prices continue to hit record highs as drought conditions persist.

PCLN dropped more than $100 after reporting earnings.

New all time highs:    CVX, STX,
All time lows: 
Pops: DF
Drops:  MNST PCLN

Next week: Economic reports   ...Options expiration

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: 
CSCO, DE, DLTR, GRPN, HD, TGT, WMT

Market Commentary

Last week's comment: "we could see 1400 on the SPX before long. Where we go from there is anyone's guess, but if we take out the April high of 1422, we could go much higher" -looks like we're heading for the 1422 level. Don't forget Options expiration this week -another reason the market will probably hold up.
The VIX is now below 15, a level which could indicate some downside in the market in the near future.

Bonds dropped again, and still looks attractive (TLT).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -up-channel still intact
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $92.87
Natural Gas pulled back, closing near $2.77
Gold was up, closing near $1620
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $148.84
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 82.63

NEWS:Is this the rally?
Dow Theory Still Says Sell
Stocks May Climb in These Dog Days of Summer
Will a Strong Dollar Finally Be Good Sign for Stocks?
Banks Stealing Our Wealth and Our Sovereignty
Why Are Investors Fleeing Equities? Hint: It’s Not the Computers

Insight: Knight's Joyce gets reprieve but new owners want answers
JCPenney Hasn't Hit Bottom Yet: Analyst
Google's Recent Quarter Should Scare Rivals
10 things Apple won’t tell you
9 Reasons Facebook Will Crash
Hard landing for China as factory prices fall and deflation looms

Stock Market Blog -Aug 5th

The market rallied on Friday after a better than expected monthly Jobs report, recovering losses from earlier in the week. Bonds dropped as stocks rallied. Earnings season is just about over, so the market will need a new catalyst to move in one direction or the other. Europe may come back into focus again. Interesting to note is that the small cap stocks (IWM) are lagging way behind the rest of the market (SPY, DIA).

New all time highs:   ABT, ATHN, DKS, EXPE, PM, SPG, SWI, TJX, UA, VTR
All time lows:  FB,MCP, ZNGA, ZIP

Pops: CRUS, GMCR, LNKD, MELI
Drops: ANF, COH, HUM, KCG, MCP, ZIP

Next week: Economic reports   ...slow week?

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: 
CF, CHK, DIS, ESRX, JCP, M, ODP, PCLN, WEN

Market Commentary

As I mentioned last week, we could see 1400 on the SPX before long.Where we go from there is anyone's guess, but if we take out the April high of 1422, we could go much higher. Also we are at the top of the up-channel started in early June in the SPY, and could pull back into the channel again.

Bonds might start looking attractive again too (TLT).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -up-channel still intact
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

XOM and CVX -bouncing off the top again, or going higher this time?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $91.40
Natural Gas pulled back a bit, closing near $2.88
Gold pulled back a bit, closing near $1606
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $149.53
The US Dollar pulled back a bit, closing near 82.45

NEWS:
Wall Street Week Ahead: Positive momentum in the face of headwinds
The Bad News In Friday's Jobs Report
The dollar is now corporate America's worst enemy
Oil at 2-Week High, Biggest 1-Day Gain in a Month
Central Banks Can’t Save the World
How about quantitative easing for the people?
The depression is here — it’s just invisible
How the 2004 Olympics Triggered Greece's Decline
After five years of crisis, the euro area risks Japanese-style economic stagnation

Stock Market Blog -Jul 29th

The market rallied on Thursday and Friday on news that Europe 'might' take some action once again to address the financial debacle (the DOW closed over 13000 on Friday). We also have a Fed meeting next week, and some are speculating that we might get a QE3 announcement (financial stimulus). Bonds dropped (TLT) as the market rallied.

WMT hit a new all time high again. So did DIS and KO. I guess we are all shopping and having a good time!

Apple dropped after missing earnings estimates.
Facebook hit a new low after reporting earnings.

New all time highs:   ALXN, ATHN, COST, CL, DFS, DPS, ED, EQIX, EW, EXPE, DIS, KMB, ONXX, PEP, SWI, UA, WMT
All time lows:  ALU, FB, GRPN

Pops: AMZN, AUTH, EXPE, PNRA, S, SWI, WDC
Drops:  AAPL, BWLD, ISRG, NFLX, RSH, SBUX, TRIP, UPS, ZNGA

Can Radio Shack survive?

Next week: Economic reports
We have a Fed meeting next week, and on Friday we get the much anticipated monthly Jobs report.

Earnings reports:  Earnings season is winding down. Among companies reporting next week are: BP, CMI, MA, PFE, PG, STX

Market Commentary

The up-channel in the S&P500 is alive and well, and if it continues as before we could see a bit more upside, then another down-swing. We could see 1400 on the SPX, just like we saw 13000 this week on the DOW. The DOW is leading the way, with the Small Caps lagging (IWM). Remember the Jobs report on Friday!

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -nice rallly; up-channel still intact
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil rallied, closing near $90.13
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.02
Gold rallied, closing near $1618
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $150.03
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 82.77

NEWS:
Dow Reclaims 13,000 on ECB Stimulus Hopes
Jobs growth, Fed take center stage next week
Weighing The Week Ahead: Counting Too Much On Central Bankers? 
Despite Slowing Economy, Fed Is in No Hurry to Act
Facebook shares still way overvalued

Sorry Mr. President, Your Economic Plan Didn't Work
Japan trade deficit swells to $37B in first half

Stock Market Blog -Jul 15th

We got a nice rally on Friday after JPM and WFC reported earnings. WMT hit another all time high! Oil and Gold also rallied, along with Bonds. Next week we get a full slew of earnings reports, including BAC, C, GOOG, INTC, and GE.  Visa, MasterCard, and other banks agreed to a $7.5 billion settlement with retailers for overcharging them!

Another Futures broker was shut down this week (PFG Best) after it was discovered that they were missing $200 million of customer money. Another California city declared bankruptcy this week (San Bernadino). PCX also filed for bankruptcy (a coal company).

 
New all time highs:   AMT,  CCI, CL, KMB , LQD , VTR, WMT, XLP, XLV
All time lows:  ANR, SVU, VXX

Pops:
Drops:  AMD, CMI, DF, HGG, LXK, MAKO, QCOR, SVU

Next week: Economic reports 
Options expiration on Friday!!  GOOG earnings on Thursday.

Earnings reports:
Mon: C,
Tue: GS, JNJ, INTC, KO, YHOO
Wed: AXP, BAC, YUM
Thu: GOOG, MSFT
Fri: GE

Market Commentary

 Looks like we've resumed the up-channel after Friday's rally (chart above). If we don't get any earnings surprises, we will probably see some more up-side, especially with Options expiration coming up on Friday -a lot of people are short this market and will get squeezed. See sample trade on GOOG earnings using options (OptionsMakeSense).

Did the US Dollar double top this week?

If it did, we could see stocks rally some more!

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -back in rally mode for now
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil rallied, closing near $87.10
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $2.87
Gold rallied, closing near $1592
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $151.19
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 83.48
Grains rallied again!

NEWS:
Wall Street Week Ahead: Earnings, Bernanke promise active week
Stocks: Earnings and Fed action in play
Consumer sentiment lowest since December
Bernanke Goes to Washington in Coming Week
After MF Global, Another Brokerage Firm Collapses With $200 Million Missing
PFG founder Wasendorf arrested in fraud case
Banks face billions more in Libor losses
Bank of America Slashes Jobs in Commercial Banking 

Patriot Coal Files for Bankruptcy Protection in New York
California Cities Go Bankrupt, But Bullet Train Barrels On
San Bernardino becomes 3rd Calif. city in 2 weeks to file for bankruptcy protection
Yahoo Confirms 400,000 Passwords Stolen in Hack
Propping up the gold price

Stock Market Blog -Jul 8th

The market gave up some gains this week after another disappointing monthly Jobs report on Friday. WMT bucked the trend and hit an all time high! China and Europe reduced interest rates, and the Bank of England announced more bond buying! Lots of stimulus, but with little results. Earnings season begins next week, and will probably determine market direction for the next few weeks.

New all time highs:   CVS DFS IBB KMB LNCR LQD WMT
All time lows:  GRPN

Pops: NFLX
Drops: 

Next week: Economic reports 

Earnings reports begin:
Mon: AA
Tue:
Wed:
Thu: FAST
Fri: JPM, WFC

Market Commentary

The market chop continues. Earnings reports begin this week (including GOOG and JPM), with lots more the following week. I expect we'll see some disappointments, and maybe a corresponding drop in the markets. The short-term up-trend channel is still intact though. Volatility should increase, providing opportunities for those that trade options.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -more pullback this week?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil rallied a bit, closing near $84.45
Natural Gas rallied, then pulled back, closing near $2.78
Gold pulled back, closing near $1579
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $149.88
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 83.56
Grains rallied again!

NEWS:
Investors shake as economy stalls
June Job Creation at 80,000; Rate Holds Steady at 8.2%
Earnings Are the Next Big Test for Stocks
Investors' focus shifts to earnings
Investors continue to flee stocks
The real national security threat: America's debt 
Why American workers are worse off today

Three Central Banks Act to Stimulate More Borrowing
Drought Stalks the Global Food Supply
Euro falls to two-year low against dollar
Explainer: Why the LIBOR scandal is a bigger deal than JPMorgan
Signs We Are Approaching a Zombie Economy
BRICs Priced for Economic Meltdown

Stock Market Blog -Jul 1st

The market rallied back up this week, with a strong surge on Friday, following the news that the European financial crisis was put on hold, again :)

Gold ans Oil surged on the news too, a reversal from the prior week. Among DOW stocks, DIS, WMT, and VZ broke to new all time highs -interesting!

NKE dropped on Friday, amidst the huge market rally.

New all time highs:   ABT, AMT, CL, COST, CVS, DIS, HSY, VZ, WMT
All time lows:  VXX

Pops: 
Drops:  CMG, NKE, ORLY, ROST

Next week: Economic reports  Markets closed on Wednesday (4th July), and half day on Tuesday.
Monthly jobs report on Friday.

Earnings reports:

Market Commentary

The market reversed trend again, this time to the up-side -its been a choppy market to say the least. I still maintain that the rally will continue until we get to earnings reports in a couple of weeks. Watch out for this week's jobs report on Friday too. With the mid-week holiday, things will probably be quiet till the Friday jobs report. We seem to be forming an up 'channel' pattern in the indexes (chart below).

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -(last week's comment: more up-side next week?) -well, we got it!
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil rallied on Friday, closing near $84.96
Natural Gas was up a bit, closing near $2.82
Gold rallied on Friday, closing near $1604
The 30 year Bond was down again, closing near $147.97
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 81.76

NEWS:
Stocks Soar; Dow Posts Best June Since 1997
Wall St ends weak quarter with a bang
Forget the Beach—Traders Will Want to Be at Their Desks
Here Are Four Good Reasons Not to Trust Today's Rally

Google unveils $199 'Nexus 7' tablet
RIM's Q1 much worse than expected: BlackBerry 10 delayed
RIM to cut 5,000 jobs, delay new phones
Stockton, California files for bankruptcy

Stock Market Blog -Jun 24th

The market dropped this week, seemingly after the Fed failed to announce any new stimulus for the economy. Bonds dropped a bit too -they usually go in opposite directions. Gold, Silver, and Oil dropped as well. Moody's also downgraded 15 large banks!

New all time highs:  FF DG  MJN N ONXX QCOR TRIP WFM V VZ
All time lows:  TVIX

Pops:  ARNA ONXX
Drops:  BBBY CELG PG R WAG

Next week: Economic reports

Earnings reports from: FDO, GIS,  MON, NKE, and RIMM

Market Commentary

The market reversed the up-trend for now, after the big drop on Thursday. We're still in a market without any real direction, and I still think we could see the rally continue before we hit earnings season in July. Meanwhile, there are some good potential trades in market leaders and momentum stocks while we wait for the bigger trend to setup.

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -more up-side next week?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was down again, closing near $79.76
Natural Gas was up a bit, closing near $2.63
Gold was down, closing near $1567
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $149.34
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 82.44

NEWS:Stocks: Global economy in focus
Get ready for the last-gasp rally
3 picks for the natural gas boom
Five Leading Stocks Approaching New 52-Week Highs
Emerging-Market Stocks Drop From Two-Week High On China, Spain
Why it's time to outlaw credit default swaps
Hacker claims mass bank breach; releases Visa, Mastercard data

Warning: There could be a devastating gold collapse ahead
Why Oil Prices Will Keep Falling: Record Pumping
China, Brazil in $30 billion-currency swap deal
As Growth Ebbs, Brazil Powers Up Its Bulldozers

Stock Market Blog -Jun 17th

The market rallied again this week, making it two in a row. Events in Europe over this weekend (Greece election), along with Egypt elections, a G20 meeting, and a Fed meeting, all will make for a very busy market next week.

New all time highs: 
ATHN DG DIS DLTR EQIX EXPE FDO PETM PGN ROST QCOR SO UA WFM
All time lows:  PCX

Pops: 
Drops:  NOK

Next week: Economic reports

Earnings reports from FDX and ORCL

Market Commentary

The market downtrend may have reversed for now, though this coming week has multiple events which can easily cause a change in direction. When there are so many news events pending, it's best to stay on the sidelines, or maybe sell some volatility in the options market. We saw similar volatility in May and June of 2011 (below). We could see the rally continue before we hit earnings season in July.

Last week's call for a rally into options expiration worked out well too!

This week's charts:
Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -another rally next week?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $84.03
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $2.47
Gold was up, closing near $1628
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $150.22
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 81.60

NEWS:Stocks End Up 1% on Stimulus Hopes; FB Soars
Stocks: Investors keep eyes pinned on Greece
Look Out Below! This S&P Sector Could Drop Up to 46%
Nokia To Cut 10,000 Jobs As Elop Tries To Stanch Losses
Baidu: A Growth Story That Is Broken, With A $90-$100 Price Target

Short-Term Gold Options Get Physical
Natural Gas Prices Surge Over Surprise Outlook
G20 leaders to meet in shadow of Europe crisis
Greeks Will Vote 'With Emotions' as World Watches