Stock Market Blog -Dec 30th

The market sold off as the 'fiscal cliff' remained unresolved. Next week will be decision time. Meanwhile the Yen continued to drop vs. the US dollar.

In 2013 we can look forward to continued European financial issues, US debt issues, and possibly some signs of inflation as the Fed continues to print hundreds of billions of dollars. The economy could contract if taxes go up, and unemployment lingers.

New all time highs: ?
All time lows: ?
Pops:  
Drops:

Next week: Economic reports  
Markets will be closed all day Tuesday for New Years.

Market Commentary

The coming week will be an interesting one as the clock runs out on the 'fiscal cliff' issue, and as we start off the new year. The market will tell us where it wants to go next, so hang in there and wait for the next move. Options Volatility has increased, so maybe selling Iron Condors on the SPY or IWM might present some opportunites.

2012 -a rocky road, but still profitable

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ?...depends on the cliff, again!
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing near $90.80
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.47
Gold dropped again, closing near $1656
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $148.38
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 79.79

NEWS:
Stocks brace for fiscal cliff reckoning
Retail Sales Disappoint, but Don't Write Them Off Yet
Fortune 500: Top-performing stocks of 2012

My Prediction For 2013 - All Other Predictions Will Be Wrong
Jubak's 10 top stocks for 2013
Reading Pessimism in the Market for Bonds

Stock Market Blog -Dec 23rd

The market rallied earlier in the week, but sold off as the fiscal cliff issue was still unresolved. AAPL closed near recent lows, and appears to be trying to form a bottom. Bonds sold off , but may also be finding support at this level. Likewise for Gold -it continues to sell off, but it may also be near a support level.

Interesting news: The NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) is being acquired by the ICE (InterContinental Exchange).

Happy Holidays to everyone!

New all time highs:   CCI, COG, SBAC
All time lows: ?
Pops:   NYX, NKE
Drops: BBBY, HLF, RIMM, YUM

 
Next week: Economic reports  
Markets close early on Monday, and all day Tuesday for Christmas.

Market Commentary

The coming week will probably see light trading, except maybe for some 'fiscal cliff' moves. The up-trend from late November is still intact.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ?...depends on the cliff!
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing near $88.66
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.45
Gold dropped again, closing near $1660
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $147.53
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.71

NEWS:
Nike shares pop on strong sales
Behind Apple’s Big Stock Decline
Mutual dislike as stock funds see record outflows
Munis take worst pounding since Meredith Whitney
How to invest for the aging-U.S. trend

2013 may look a lot like 2012
Is the Bond Market Starting to Fight the Fed?
Newsweek ends its 80-year print run with a hashtagged cover
2013 Outlook for Gold and Silver: Risk in Gold, the Devil’s Metal Shines
Japan's Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world

Stock Market Blog -Dec 16th

Kind of a flat week for the markets, except for AAPL, which continued its downward trajectory! With the holiday season upon us, I expect we'll see light trading, with maybe some 'fiscal cliff' related selling. To everyone's surprise, the Euro is showing strength and may be about to break out to new highs. Meanwhile the Yen is showing a lot of weakness. Also, the US Dollar has been dropping, which is usually good for stocks. The Fed announced more 'QE' this week...

New all time highs:   CRM, MPC, PPG, VMED
All time lows: ?
Pops:   BBY
Drops: BBY

Euro strength -about to break out? 135 maybe?
Weak Yen (below)

 
Next week: Economic reports  
Earnings: ORCL, FDX, NKE, RIMM

Market Commentary

Market volatility is very low (VIX), indicating an upside bias to the market. The S&P500 chart is also forming an inverted H&S pattern -another potential bullish signal. And the Euro looks like it's about to breakout to new highs -also bullish for the S&P500, because of the normally strong correlation (weaker US Dollar). Maybe we'll get a Christmas rally.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -bullish?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing near $86.73
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.31
Gold dropped, closing near $1697
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $148.34
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 79.56

NEWS:
Wall Street succumbs to Apple's fall, "cliff" uncertainty
Week Ahead: Manufacturing, Housing Data on Tap
Apple takes investors on a wild ride
5 reasons why Google has its mojo back
Central Banks: How They Are Ruling the Financial World
The Federal Reserve's Zombie Economy
Ray Dalio Thinks The Bond Bull Market Could Finally Turn In 2013
How Unconventional Oil And Gas Is Supercharging The U.S. Economy

Stock Market Blog -Dec 2nd

The market drifted a little higher this week as retail sales seemed to be somewhat better than expected, otherwise it was kind of a slow week. Gold prices dropped a bit. For the most part, the market is waiting for some kind of news on a resolution for the 'fiscal cliff'. YUM dropped on a weak outlook for China.

New all time highs:   COST, CLX, GIS, MRC, LTD, PSX, UN, V -again
All time lows: 
Pops:  GMCR, 
Drops: KSS, TFM, TIF, YUM

Next week: Economic reports   Monthly Jobs report on Friday!

Market Commentary

The market may be rangebound till we get some clarity on the US fiscal situation. Likewise for the European situation. Volatility is very low, as is volume. Maybe the only tradable events this week will be the Jobs report, and earnings reports (AZO, LULU).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -pullback next?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $88.91
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.56
Gold dropped, closing near $1713
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $151.41
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 80.16

NEWS:
Stocks stuck on fiscal cliff treadmill
Geithner: No deal 'without rates going up'
Junk Bonds Are So Popular Now They're Dangerous
Indonesia: The newest BRIC?

Stock Market Blog -Nov 25th

The market rallied every day this week! AAPL was up $38 on Monday, after being down for 8 straight weeks in a row -I think Options expiration the previous Friday helped to keep the stock price down. Even RIMM and GMCR rallied. Gold continues to move up too. It looks like Thanksgiving sales did well too, so maybe that bodes well for the economy going forward -we'll see. We still have Europe and the Middle East and the fiscal cliff in the background.

New all time highs:  GIS, GILD -again, V -again, 
All time lows: 
Pops: AAPL
Drops: BBY, HPQ

AAPL -after 8 weeks down, it finally bounces!

Next week: Economic reports 

Market Commentary

We did finally get a bounce from this oversold market, and if you sold Put Credit Spreads last week you're smiling this week. If we get a pulback, it may be a good time to buy. It's too early too tell whether this is a long term rally, so use some kind of 'stop' if you do establish long positions. Volume has been weak on this rally.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -rally mode
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $87.90
Natural Gas was mostly up, closing near $3.85
Gold was up, closing near $1750
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $150.31
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 80.29

NEWS:
Dow back above 13,000
Black Friday Sales Online Top $1 Billion For First Time: ComScore
What Stocks Are Analysts Buzzing About?
RIM jumps 14% on BlackBerry 10 hopes
Android Market Share: 3 Of 4 Smartphones Purchased In Past 3 Months Use Google's OS

Stock Market Blog -Nov 18th

Another week, another drop in the markets! Maybe we'll see a bottom soon. Continued layoff announcements, and bad news from companies like Hostess don't help. Not helping things either is tension in the Middle east, endless talk about the fiscal cliff, and weak earnings. The chart is clearly pointing down.

New all time highs:  GILD
All time lows: DRYS, MCP, P, TVIX
Pops:  ANF, GILD, NTAP
Drops:  DELL, MSFT, SHLD, WMT

 

AAPL -post iPhone5 top  -last week, 7th week down! -now, 8th week down!

Next week: Economic reports Thanksgiving Holiday

Earnings reports next week:  BBY, CPB, CRM, DE, HPQ, LOW,

Market Commentary

Still no bounce -maybe next week. The market is pretty oversold at this point. A low risk way to put on a bullish trade would be to sell 'Put Spreads' on the index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, TNA...). AAPL may be a good 'Put Spread' candidate also, or an Iron Condor for trade with even less risk.

Since Bonds typically trade opposite to stocks, another way to trade some upside in the market would be to be bearish on Bonds by selling 'Call Spreads' on TLT.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -ready to bounce next week?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $86.92
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.79
Gold dropped, closing near $1714
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $152.22
The US Dollar was up, closing near 81.31

NEWS:
Jobless Claims in U.S. Jumped Last Week After Sandy
Hostess Brands closing for good -no more Twinkies?
Hostess and the GM Bailout: Why the Chevy Volt Shouldn't Exist but Twinkies Still Will
Postal Service Loss Of $15.9 Billion Sets Record
Institutions Are Selling These 7 Stocks With Unusual Volume After Earnings

Why Women Make Better Traders
Samsung hikes Apple chip prices by 20 percent: report
Amazon's Jeff Bezos: The ultimate disrupter
The Long Story of U.S. Debt, From 1790 to 2011, in 1 Little Chart

Stock Market Blog -Nov 11th

The market dropped this week after the election results. Now we know which candidate Wall Street favored. From the chart below you can see that we are now in a down trend -we'll see how long it continues. Bonds rallied as stocks dropped.

New all time highs:  AUY DDD
All time lows: GRPN ZNGA MCP ARCO
Pops:  AOL
Drops:  AGU DIS ESRX GRPN VVUS

AAPL -4 weeks of declines (post iPhone5 top)  -last week, 6th week down! -now 7th week down!

The Euro appears to be headed lower, off a double top (probably means stocks lower too)

Next week: Economic reports 

Earnings reports next week:
CSCO, HD, KORS report on Tuesday
ANF, PETM report onWednesday
DELL, TGT, WMT report on Thursday.
FL reports on Friday
And most of the big retailers report next week too...

Market Commentary

We got the election results, and investors promptly voted stock prices lower! With any luck we'll get a bounce next week, with Options expiration maybe lending a hand. Overall we are  in a 'down' trend, so trade accordingly. AAPL moves the markets, and it also appears ready for a bounce.

Longer term, it's conceivable that we could eventually go all the way back to the June lows (where the rally began).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -ready to bounce this week?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $86.07
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.50
Gold was up, closing near $1731
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $151.63
The US Dollar was up, closing near 81.10

NEWS:Stocks end election week down 2%
Which Stocks Look Ready to Pop and Drop with Earnings Next Week?
 Qualcomm Rides Mobile Tailwinds To Profits
Apple in bear territory: 20% below all-time high
Spread Out and Catch the Falling AAPL Knife
11 Stocks With More Impressive Margins than Apple Inc (AAPL)

Stock Market Blog -Nov 4th

The market was undecided this week as it rallied, then crashed right back down. Hurricane Sandy shut down the markets for 2 days, as it wreaked havoc in New Jersey and New York. We got a better than expected monthly Jobs report on Friday, but the market then promptly sold off the rest of the day.

The US Dollar rallied, and Gold dropped under $1700. SBUX, PCLN, and V  popped after reporting earnings. AAPL continued to drop, now 6 weeks in a row!

New all time highs: CMCSA, COG, DFS, EXPE, JDAS, KORS, PVH, V, WRC
All time lows: GRPN
Pops: JDAS, PCLN, SBUX, TRIP, WRC
Drops:  FFIV, NEM, YELP

AAPL -4 weeks of declines (post iPhone5 top)  -last week, 5th week down! -now 6th week down!

Next week: Economic reports 

Earnings reports next week:
 DIS reports on Thursday.

Market Commentary

The election results next week will probably impact stock prices. We're still testing support at 1400 on the S&P500. I would wait till after the election before trying to determine the next move in the markets.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -heading down further?
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $84.94
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.52
Gold dropped, closing near $1683
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $148.44
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.67

NEWS:Job growth, unemployment rate rose in October as workers re-entered labor force
Starbucks Jumps as Profit Increases on U.S. Sales Gain
Inside Apple's major shakeup
What’s dragging down the U.S. economy?
Swiss Bank UBS To Lay Off 10,000 Employees
Japan is in worse than a deflationary trap