Stock Market Blog -Aug 25th

The market regained some ground this week after the sell-off last week. Interest rates continued to climb (Bonds dropped), and Gold rallied, now approaching $1400 (it could see some resistance here).

New all time highs:   JAZZ, LGF, LMT, RTN, QCOR, STZ, ROST, TJX, TSLA,
All time lows:  -- 

Pops: BBY, MSFT       Drops: P, ANF, ARO, P, SPLS,

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports: CRM

Market Commentary

"This could be the start of a bigger pullback. If you are a trader, look for a bounce to start getting short, or getting out." -this was my comment last week. We are now getting that bounce. Maybe we'll get back up to 1680 on the SPX to fill the gap... possible head & shoulders forming.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -setting up for another drop?
10yr Interest Rates -still rising
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was down a bit, closing near $106.42 -still over $100.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.49
Gold saw a nice rally, closing at $1396 -approaching $1400!
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $131.81
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 81.39

NEWS:
Time for market to start worrying about September—yikes!
Economy imperiled as QE bag of tricks fails
The 3 reasons everyone is dead wrong about bonds (video)
Wells Fargo To Cut 2,300 Mortgage Servicing Jobs
UPS drops health benefits for 15,000 spouses 
Why get off welfare?

Facebook above $40 for first time since IPO
Why Facebook Shares Closed Above $40 For The First Time
Steve Ballmer: The $16 billion drag on Microsoft
How China's Slowdown Will Impact Latin America
The financial crisis that refuses to go away

Stock Market Blog -Aug 18th

The DOW dropped a few hundred points this week, the biggest drop in recent times. Could be the start of another correction. The economy in Europe and China however are showing signs of improvement. Bond futures at 131,  look like prices may want to head down to the 120ish level we saw in 2011 -so, higher interest rates.

AAPL rallied to $500 this week in the face of market weakness.

New all time highs:   COP (short list this week)
All time lows:  -- SCO

Pops: ?       Drops -CREE, CSCO, WMT

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports:  ANF, BBY, GPS, JCP, HD, HPQ, LOW, SPLS, SHLD, TGT

Market Commentary

This could be the start of a bigger pullback. If you are a trader, look for a bounce to start getting short, or getting out. Market volatility could rise in the next few months (September?) The DOW and S&P500 are leading the way down, while the Nasdaq100 is holding up the best so far.

Again, keep your eye on TLT to see if Interest rates continue to rise (TLT has been in a down-trend -broke support last week).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -double top
10yr Interest Rates -still rising
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $107.46 -still over $100.
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.37
Gold saw a nice rally, closing at $1371
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $131.03
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 81.30

NEWS:
Jackson Hole, Fed minutes dominate week
Stocks as overvalued now as at 2007 high
Quit worrying about a 1987-style crash
401(k) savers are confused and stressed

Comex Registered Gold Cover Ratios Hit Unprecedented Levels: Over 50 Claims Per Oz. 
Easy Credit Dries Up, Choking Growth in China

Stock Market Blog -Aug 11th

The market pulled back a bit this week, as Bond prices edged up, and Commodity prices rallied. Earnings season is winding down and we could see some consolidation of the recent gains in the coming weeks. Next week should be a light week for earnings and for economic reports, and it's the summer too ...take a break?

New all time highs:   DLPH, KORS, LTD, LGF, PCLN, TRIP, TYS, UA, YUM, Z
All time lows:  -- 

Pops:    FOSL, GRPN, PCLN, TSLA    Drops -FSLR, FIO

Next week: Economic reports  Monthly Options expiration.
Upcoming Earnings reports:  CSCO, WMT

Market Commentary

The market has started to show sighs of breaking down from the highs, with the DOW leading the way. August Options expire on Friday, so I expect a mostly neutral week, and Options are still cheap, so you might consider buying Puts for portfolio insurance instead of using stops. Keep your eye on TLT to see if Interest rates continue to rise (TLT has been in a down-trend).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topping?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped a bit, closing near $105.97 -still over $100.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.23
Gold was mostly flat, closing at $1312
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $134.45
The US Dollar was down, closing near 81.17

NEWS:
Stocks Lose Ground, But China ADRs Notch Gains
How Much Longer Until Stocks Fall Down?
S&P 500's most shorted stocks
Nexus 7 is 'the best Android tablet' (video)
Why Google is assembling phones in the U.S. (video)
Chevrolet's Electric Volt: Is Failure Within Its Range?

Financials near to regaining S&P 500's top spot
Crude gets a boost from China; US oil soars above $105
China's good economic news keeps getting better
Japan debt tops 1 quadrillion yen

Stock Market Blog -Aug 4th

This week the market moved higher again (for no apparent reason?), while the 'new all time high' list keeps getting longer. GDP came in at a paltry 1.7% and Unemployment at 7.4% (the U-6 unemployment rate is still at 14%). Bonds sold off, and Oil rallied. The DOW eked out a new all time high, the S&P500 closed over 1700, while the VIX is about to hit multi-year lows once more. Nice time to book profits and stand aside for a while?

LNKD popped after reporting great earnings, and hit an all time high. FB is still moving higher after reporting 2 weeks ago!

New all time highs:   COP, EAT, FOXA, JNJ, KORS, LNKD, LTD, MELI, MYL, NOC, NKE, NWSA, QCOR, SBUX, TSLA, TJX, TSN, UTX, YELP, and more...

All time lows:  -- 

Pops & Drops:    LNKD, MA, MAKO, MELI,    Drops -POT, MOS

Hope you were on the right side of one of these!

Next week: Economic reports
Upcoming Earnings reports:   CVS, DIS, PCLN, TWX, TSLA

Market Commentary

 
The rally marches on. Stay long with a stop? Options are cheap, so you might consider buying Puts for insurance instead of using a stop. Earnings season is winding down now, so its back to news events to drive the market. We've had a nice ride up since Thanksgiving, so lets see what ths summer brings. you can use Option credit spreads or skewed Iron Condors to go short, or buy VIX Call spreads.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topping?
Weekly Unemployment claims
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $106.94 -still over $100.
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.35
Gold was down, closing at $1310
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $133.72
The US Dollar was up, closing near 81.98

NEWS:
Stocks rise despite weak jobs report; Dow, S&P set new record highs
The Very Worst Part of Today's Lousy Jobs Report
Want a job? Good luck finding full-time work
The four reasons why hedge funds are selling gold
It all goes back to bonds
Home flipping frenzy returns to Southland real estate market

Google unveils much-hyped 'Moto X'
Linn Energy: Many Ponzi-Like MLP Blow-Ups To Follow
Exxon Misses Estimates by Most Since 2002 as Refining Sinks
What to do with Facebook stock amid mobile gains
The $7 Trillion Problem That Could Sink Asia

Stock Market Blog -Jul 28th

The market pulled back a bit this week as many companies reported earnings. We'll get another indication of direction next week as more companies report. Gold continued to climb, while Bond prices seem to be edging up.

Earnings Pops: FB, BIDU, SBUX, TRIP, VMW
Earnings Drops: CROX, EXPE, SWI

New all time highs:   AMZN, CELG, DLPH, ESRX, GILD, JNJ, OCN, SE, SBUX, TRIP, MYL,
All time lows:  --

Hope you were on the right side of one of these!

Next week: Economic reports Fed meeting and Monthly Jobs report.
Upcoming Earnings reports:  
Mon -HLF
Tue -DDD, MRK, PFE
Wed -MA, WFM
Thu -BP, LNKD, PG, XOM
Fri -CVX

Market Commentary

 
Big week coming up -Fed meeting, monthly Jobs report, GDP, and more earnings! The market looks 'toppy' here and just needs a catalyst or it to roll over, so be careful.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -topping?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was down, closing near $104.70 -still over $100!
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.55
Gold was up again, closing at $1321
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $134.72
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 81.77

NEWS:
Dow recovers from 150-point drop to log 5-week win streak
Earnings week ahead: Media and oil giants in focus
(Vid) Amazon stock still worth owning: Pro
Google's $35 Chromecast vs. the $100 Apple TV
Is Meredith Whitney finally right about muni bonds? 
JPMorgan quits physical commodities business

Stock Market Blog -Jul 21st

This week, the city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the market continued to rally, in spite of missed earnings from a number of large tech companies. Next week we'll be flooded with more earnings reports -watch for possible market volatility. Also note that Bond prices have been moving up over the past two weeks.

MSFT had its biggest earnings miss in 12 years. IBM, INTC, MSFT, GOOG -big tech stocks' earnings have been somewhat disappointing so far. I'm guessing we'll see more of the same from AAPL and FB next week. ISRG and EBAY also dropped after reporting earnings.

On the positive side, GE, CMG, SLB, and YHOO rallied after reporting earnings.

New all time highs:   APC, COP, CVS, JNJ, GILD, HON, MMM, WFC, UNH, UTX, STX, WDC
All time lows:  --

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports:  
Mon -MCD, NFLX, HAL, TXN
Tue -AAPL, DD, MO, T, UPS, UTX,
Wed -BA, BIDU, CAT, F, FB, LLY, PEP, QCOM, V
Thu -AMZN, CELG, CL, BIIB, BMY, GILD, MMM, SBUX
Fri -

Market Commentary

 

Watch for market reaction to earnings this week, the busiest week for earnings, including AAPL, FB, NFLX, and AMZN. I still think the risk is to the downside here. Also Gold has been steadily recovering from the recent lows of under $1200.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still moving up

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up again, closing near $108.05 -still over $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.79
Gold was up, closing at $1293
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $135.50
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 82.71

NEWS:
Dow, S&P 500 end 4th winning week
Jobless Claims See Largest Weekly Drop Since April
Key Earnings Reports Next Week
Earnings reports could shut down the tech surge

Gold settles at one-month high amid US stimulus hopes
Oil -Brent-WTI Spread Approaches Parity
Detroit files for bankruptcy
Detroit bankruptcy could hit millions of retirees

Stock Market Blog -Jul 14th

The market continues up, maybe to a double top?

New all time highs:  
All time lows:  --
Pops:  , -Drops:  ,

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports: 
CMG, IBM, INTC, GOOG, GE, MSFT, YHOO

Market Commentary

 
Looks like we did re-visit the mid-June highs! Where we go from here, I think will depend primarily on how the market reacts to the earnings reports.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still moving up

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $105.95 -still over $100!
Natural Gas was flat, closing near $3.64
Gold moved back up, closing at $1277
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $133.94
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 83.16

NEWS:
Surprise! Huge US budget surplus shatters record

Stock Market Blog -Jul 7th

The week was positive for the market, with some help from the monthly Jobs report on Friday. Bonds and Gold continued to drop. Oil prices were up after the tensions and overthrow of the government in Egypt. Things seem to be stirring up in Europe again too (financial matters that is...), while China seems to be slowing down.

New all time highs:   DFS, DLPH, STX, SBUX, V, WFM
All time lows:  -- NBG
Pops:  , -Drops:  ,

Next week: Economic reports 
Upcoming Earnings reports:   AA, JPM, WFC, YUM

Market Commentary

 
The market rallied after the Jobs report, and got over the congestion level, so we could see more up-side. If the rally continues this week, we'll probably re-visit the mid-June highs again. Earnings reports will be the next catalyst for the markets.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -moving up

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $103.22 -over $100!
Natural Gas was flat, closing near $3.61
Gold plunged again, closing at $1212
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $132.65!
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 84.69

NEWS:
Stocks Surge 1% on Strong Jobs Report; Dow Reclaims 15,000 Level
Yields Soar as US Jobs Data Stokes Fed Fears
How Much Pain Will Bond Investors Tolerate?
One Eye on Earnings, the Other on Bonds
Don’t Get Too Excited About Today’s Jobs Data