Stock Market Blog -Dec 22nd

The Fed tapered on Wednesday, and the market rallied! Everyone however expected a drop when the Fed made that announcement -so much for market predictions from the 'experts'. We also got a better GDP number this week.

Meanwhile Gold fell below $1200, and Oil rallied to close near $100 again.

New all time highs:    AXP, AMZN, ARMH, ALXN, CMCSA, CVS, CSX/ODFL, DIA, DDD, EXPE, ESRX, FDX, FL, GOOG, HLF, HIMX, MMM, STX, TSCO, V, UA, UPS, and more...
All time lows:   

Pops:  RHT, Drops:   

Next week:  Economic reports ,

Earnings:

Market Commentary

Last week I said "If the market continues to act like it has on previous pullbacks, we will see it rally from this level". And rally it did! This up-trend continues to baffle the bears (and even some bulls). If you are baffled, one of the easiest ways to get an idea of when the rally has peaked is to use a pair of moving averages, and look for a cross. Which moving average you use depends on your time frame. For example if you are using a daily chart, maybe the 20 and 50 period averages could be used (chart example below).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -new all time high again!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $99.32 -approaching $100
Natural Gas was up a bit, closing near $4.41
Gold dropped, closing at $1203
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $130.09
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 80.75

NEWS:

Ho! Ho! Ho! Dow, S&P end at record highs
Wow! U.S. economy revved up
The 5 Hottest Tech Stocks of 2013
5 Stocks That Could Double in 2014

'Massive correction' for stocks and Treasurys in 2014: Pro

How contrarians got it wrong in 2013

Stumbling Toward the Next Crash
Report: Chicago's Pension Woes Worse Than Detroit's
BlackBerry's brutal 2013 keeps getting worse
QE: The greatest subsidy to the rich ever?

Stock Market Blog -Dec 15th

The market pulled back this week as was expected by many. Next week we could see it resume the up-trend (or not), as the last Fed meeting for the year winds down on Wednesday. There is so much anticipation for this meeting that it could turn out to be a big yawn. We also get earnings next week from NKE, FDX, and ORCL, and finally Options expiration for the month and the quarter on Friday. TWTR saw a huge rally this week.

Futures: Bonds have been crushed this year, along with Gold, and to some extent Oil. Nat Gas on the other hand has rallied nicely. Coffee sank, as it did the prior year -time for a rally I think. Sugar, like Coffee, has been in a downward spiral too.

Coffee and Sugar have been crushed over the past 2 years!

New all time highs:    ADBE, KORS, NLSN, TWTR, V
All time lows:   FIO

Pops:  MA, SYY      Drops:   ORCL

Next week:  Economic reports , Fed meeting

Earnings:  DFS, FDX, NKE, ORCL, WAG

Market Commentary

The Budget talks came and went almost without notice! So much for that market moving event. Next week's market moving event will be the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Also the final Quarterly Options expiration for 2013 on Friday. From a 'technical' standpoint, the S&P500 is at a support level here and could break in either direction. If the market continues to act like it has on previous pullbacks, we will see it rally from this level.

MA announced a 10 for 1 stock split this week -could this be the first of more to come? AAPL, AMZN, CMG, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN?

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -will it bounce back up to the top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $96.60 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.35
Gold recovered a bit, closing at $1234
The 30 year Bond continued to drop, closing near $129.65
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.37

NEWS:

U.S. Stocks Post Worst Week Since August on Fed Concern
Why Fed could rock market no matter what it does
After massive rally, will shorts finally win?
Share prices are soaring, but splits aren't coming back
Forget Apple, Google…this is Nasdaq 2.0
Facebook to be added to S&P 500

VIX Trader Buys $5.1 Million in Calls to Bet on 50% Increase
There is no bubble; markets just don’t work anymore
Budget Deal Passed By House, Heads To Senate
Experts predict a gold bounce soon—here’s why

Stock Market Blog -Dec 8th

The market was down all week, but recovered on Friday after a better than expected Jobs report. The jobless rate fell to 7.0%, the lowest since 2008. Looks like we'll close out the year with some nice gains, barring any surprises from the Fed or any Budget issues next week.  Bonds and Gold on the other hand will close out the year with significant losses.

New all time highs:    CELG, CLX, CSX, DG, GM, GOOG, LNG, NSC, PSX, STX, WDC
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:  TSLA ,      Drops:   JCP, KKD, SHLD, ULTA

Next week:  Economic reports , 

Earnings:  AZO, LULU, COST

Market Commentary

The rally finally got a pause this week. We'll see if its the beginning of a correction or just a another small dip. The bigger trend is definitely still to the up side. We might see some concerns reflected in the market about the Dec 13th budget deadline next week.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -back up to the top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $97.65 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.11
Gold dropped, closing at $1229
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $130.37
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 80.31

NEWS:

Now where do stocks go? Here's a hint: Ho ho ho
El-Erian: Jobs report is even better than you think
Investors brace for big dip in stocks
Dow 16,000 Was a Lot of Fun While It Lasted
Six reasons why 2014 is the year the economy clicks
5 reasons the markets will rally again in 2014
Will Google soon pass Exxon in market value?

What Keeps Bill Gross (and me) up at Night?
After Detroit, Who Will Cut City Pensions Next?
Lesson from Detroit: Get ready for more muni mess
Why Japan May Matter More Than Tapering
China becomes world's largest gold consumer

Stock Market Blog -Dec 1st

The market continued a little higher this week, but with light trading and very little action. Most traders are looking for some kind of pause or pullback at these lofty levels. The NASDAQ finally closed over the 4000 level for the first time since the dot com bubble era! It's still far from the highs seen at that time though (chart below).

New all time highs:    AET, AMZN, AXP, CVS, DAL, M, MMM, NKE, TIF, UPS, 
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:  HPQ ,      Drops:   NUAN

Next week:  Economic reports 

Market Commentary

The rally continues... same comments as last week, and the week before!   "Everyone has been expecting a correction, so maybe that's why we haven't seen one! Maybe next week -maybe not. For the trend traders, stick with the trend. For the contrarians, hang in there! Volatility is very low, so there are some potential Options opportunities in the VIX products, or in shorting the market indexes using Option spreads (SPY, SSO, IWM, etc). Or maybe cheap, out of the money Calendar Put spreads on the indexes.

The NASDAQ 100 is working its way up to the 2000 high. 

The S&P500 got back up there several years ago.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -all time high again!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was down, closing near $92.72 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.95
Gold was up, closing at $1250
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $132.21
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.65

NEWS:

Stocks up for 3rd month; S&P tallies longest weekly win streak since 2004
Nasdaq hits 4,000: Same number, different world
Playing with fire? Margin debt most since crisis
Why you should always buy on Black Friday

Yes, Virginia, Apple is giving discounts
Five economic trends to be thankful for
Moody upgrades Greece's debt rating

Stock Market Blog -Nov 24th

The market closed at new all time highs again this week, with the DOW closing over 16,000 for the first time ever! Gold dropped again. We head into a shortened trading week for the Thanksgiving holiday, which marks another year for this non-stop market rally..

New all time highs:    AMZN, ABC, BIIB, CMCSA, CVS, CELG, CL, GILD, DIS, DAL, LMT, MMM, TWC, YUM, PG, UPS, and more...
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:   GMCR, LZB       Drops:  BBY, CPB, DLTR, GME, LOW, ROST

Next week:  Economic reports 

Earnings next week:   HPQ

Market Commentary

The rally continues... same comments as last week!   "Everyone has been expecting a correction, so maybe that's why we haven't seen one! Maybe next week -maybe not. For the trend traders, stick with the trend. For the contrarians, hang in there! Volatility is very low, so there are some potential Options opportunities in the VIX products, or in shorting the market indexes using Option spreads (SPY, SSO, IWM, etc).

5 year rally

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -all time high again!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $94.84 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.77
Gold dropped again, closing at $1244
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $131.90
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 80.74

NEWS:

S&P 500 ends above 1,800 for first time; healthcare leads
Dow 20,000 here we come: It’s different this time
U.S. Stocks Close to Scoring 'Perfect 10' for 2013
What you can learn from naysaying short sellers
Short sellers see once in a lifetime opportunity—if they can survive
Real Jobless Rate 11.8% Excluding Labor Force Exodus
 ETFs That Act Like Bonds, Not (Ugh) Bond Funds

Watch out, Apple! Here come Chinese smartphones
Boeing warns of engine risk on 747-8s, Dreamliners
J.C. Penney dropped from S&P 500 index
Bargain hunters get ready to buy gold
Maria Bartiromo to Leave CNBC for Fox Business

Stock Market Blog -Nov 17th

The market continued to rise to all time highs this week (DOW & S&P500). The DOW is approaching 16000, and the S&P500 is now just under1800. I expect we'll cross both of those levels next week. Gold regained some ground, while Oil dropped again.

CSCO dropped after reporting earnings. KSS dropped too.

New all time highs:    AMZN, BA, CRM, CVS, FDX, KORS, LOW, PG, MMM, NKE, STZ, and many more...
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:     Drops:  CSCO,

Next week: Economic reports 

 Earnings next week: Retailers reporting next week... HD, BBY, etc.

PG, DIS, and MMM -all time highs -are these growth stocks?

Market Commentary

The rally continues! Everyone has been expecting a correction, so maybe that's why we haven't seen one! Maybe next week -maybe not. For the trend traders, stick with the trend. For the contrarians, hang in there! Volatility is very low, so there are some potential Options opportunities in the VIX products, or in shorting the market indexes using Option srpeads (SPY, SSO, IWM, etc).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -all time high!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $93.84 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.66
Gold was up a bit, closing at $1287
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $132.53
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 80.90

NEWS:

Dow and S&P end at record highs
Dow, S&P 500 rise for 6th consecutive week
The strangest bull market ever
When Bonds Call the Tune, It Could Get Ugly
Ride the bull for 2 more years: Strategist (video)
Strong quarter, falling stock: 11 disconnects to watch 

Unappreciated by Street, charts say buy
Exxon top energy gainer after Buffett takes stake
Will Google Docs kill off Microsoft Office?
Come On, Apple Fans, It's Time To Admit That The Company Is Blowing It
Is gold ready to turn a corner?
China unveils boldest reforms in decades, shows Xi in command

Stock Market Blog -Nov 10th

The market dropped, then rallied back up the next day on a better than expected Jobs report. The Unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.3%. GDP also came in better than expected at 2.8%.

Twitter dropped a bit after its IPO high. AAPL seems to be stuck around the $525 level, while FB is still dropping from its peak in October. TSLA had a baaad week.

Gold dropped below $1300 again, and Bonds dropped as well.

New all time highs:    AMP, ABC, ENDP, MMM, PRGO, STZ
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:     Drops:  ANF, SCTY, TSLA, WEN, WFM 

Next week: Economic reports 

 Earnings next week:

Mon - RAX

Tue - DNDN

Wed - CSCO,  NTAP

Thu - WMT, A

Fri - 

Mortgage REITs: Last Chance to Exit?

Market Commentary

The market started to show signs of a breakdown, then recovered after the monthly Jobs report and GDP numbers.  Still, the S&P500 seems to be stuck in the 1770 range for the past two weeks, and the Small Caps (IWM) haven't  recovered from their recent sell-off. Earnings season is pretty much over, so look for news to drive the market over the next few weeks. Some of the recent leaders have started selling off as well. I'm leaning to the short side.

\This week's charts:

S&P 500 -holding up so far...
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $94.60 -holding under $100
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.56
Gold dropped, closing at $1284
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $131.75
The US Dollar was up, closing near 81.38

NEWS:

Stocks up on jobs; Dow ends at record high and S&P not far behind (video)
Bulls run to rescue the market — too late
Despite Mixed Headlines, Today’s Jobs Report is Still a Bummer
The odd October jobs report: The US government shutdown failed to shutdown the US economy
Economy grew 2.8% in the third quarter
Week ahead: Stocks ride tailwind, but watch for rising rates

Are we drowning in stocks?
Treasury vs. Fed: Who's right on the economy? (video)
PRECIOUS-Gold drops to 3-week low on ECB rate cut, US GDP
Gold Set to Plunge to Its Final Bottom

Stock Market Blog -Nov 3rd

We got a little pullback this week as AAPL and FB  sentiment seemed a little negative after reporting earnings. Crude, Oil, Gold, and the Euro all dropped, along with Bonds. More than half of the companies have reported earnings now, so that's becoming less significant for determining market direction.

AAPL, FB, and LNKD all had disappointing price reactions after reporting earnings. HPQ rallied on Friday. SNE and AVP sank.

New all time highs:    ABC, BA, CBS, CMCSA, DAL, FDX, NWSA, TJX, PRGO
All time lows:  ... 

Pops:     Drops:  AVP, CMI, SNE, SOHU

Next week: Economic reports   Monthly Jobs report on Friday
 Earnings next week:

Mon - 

Tue - TSLA

Wed - QCOM, WFM

Thu - DIS, PCLN

Fri - 

Market Commentary

MACD divergence and a weak RSI might point to further weakness in AAPL. The market in general could be setting up for a pause in the rally. The monthly Jobs report on Friday could move the market too. If this price channel pattern which started earlier this year continues, we should see another pullback over the next few weeks.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -where next?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10yr chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped again, closing near $94.61 -holding under $100
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.51
Gold dropped, closing at $1313
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $135.75
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.81

NEWS:

Week ahead: Jobs report and a lot more (video)
Trading this week's jobs report (video)
The Dangers of a Stock Market Melt-Up
Fed’s Bubble Alarm Stuck on Snooze
Expect Debt Defaults to Go from a Trickle to a Torrent
Here's how Bill Gross is playing post-Fed market
Rich families hoarding cash: Citi
Are China’s Banks Next?