Stock Market Blog -Feb 23rd

The market seemed to be stuck in a range this week. FB managed to cross $70, a new all time high. PCLN also reached a new all time high after reporting earnings. And believe it or not, DIS also reached a new all time high. Next week we'll probably see whether the market will continue the long term up-trend and break out higher above this resistance level.  Commodities have been on the rise too.

New all time highs:   BIIB, DTV, CBS, CRM, DATA, DIS, EXPE, PCLN, INTU, LNG, MAR, TSN, UA...
All time lows:   -

Pops:  FRX, SSTK      Drops:  GRPN, 

Next week:  Economic reports,   

Earnings:     GPS, HD, LOW, TGT, M, JCP, BBY

Market Commentary

The S&P500 tried, but couldn't break through the 1850 level. Friday was options expiration for February, and with that out of the way, maybe now we'll see a breakout or a breakdown. The S&P500 has been stuck at the current level all week.  After the big breakdown we saw in January with heavy volume, I think the risk is still to the down side.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still on top!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing at $102.20 -still over $100!
Natural Gas saw a big rally, closing  at $6.13
Gold rallied a bit, closing at $1323 -holding over $1300
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing at 133.10
The US Dollar was  mostly unchanged, closing at 80.27

NEWS:
What's next: Earnings and business reports due February 24-26 (Video)
All-time highs are 2 weeks away: BofAML technician
Is Facebook's acquisition of WhatsApp a desperate move?
Why Shutterstock is up 500% since IPO (vid)
Apple looks an awful lot like Microsoft: Pro
How the big money is betting on gold now
10 Things a Burglar Doesn’t Want You to Know

Stock Market Blog -Feb 16th

The market (S&P500) continued to rally for a second week, erasing most of the losses from the beginning of the year! With earnings out of the way, and no more debt ceiling concerns, there appears to be little in the way to really trip up this market. The DOW and the Small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM) are lagging, and still need to take out this year's losses. Gold rallied past $1300, and Oil closed just over $100.

FB and GOOG hit an all time high again this week!
CSCO and WFM dropped after reporting earnings.

New all time highs:   ADBE, ALXN, CBS, CRM, DIS, DFS, ESRX, FB, GOOG, ORLY, TWC, and more...
All time lows:   -

Pops:  TWC      Drops:  RAX, WTW, WFM

Next week:  Economic reports,   Markets are closed on Monday!!

Earnings:    GRPN, HLF, HPQ, KO, PCLN, TSLA,  WMT, 

10 year Biotech performance!

Market Commentary

Last weeks comment: "We could see this reversal continue next week and maybe take out the 1800 level again." -we did it, and then some!

I think the rally will continue some more till the Small-Caps and the DOW catch up to the S&P and take out the highs for the year. After that we'll have to wait and see what happens. Keep an eye on WMT earnings next week too.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -back on top!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing at $100.30 -closed over $100!
Natural Gas rallied, closing  at $5.21
Gold rallied, closing at $1318 -back over $1300!
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing at 132.91
The US Dollar was down, closing at 80.18

NEWS:
Worst over for stocks? Depends on earnings
Dividend hikes, consumer clues eyed in week ahead
There's just no making sense of this stock market

Obama signs increase in U.S. debt ceiling
World's biggest PC maker posts 30% profit jump (vid)
The price of gold is above $1,300 an ounce for the first time in months... (vid)
Tom Perkins: Taxes will lead to 'economic extinction' of the 1%

Stock Market Blog -Feb 9th

The market rebounded this week in spite of another disappointing monthly Jobs report. Could be just a short covering rally, as we approach 1800 on the S&P500 again. Earnings season is mostly over, so we look to new catalysts to drive the market going forward.


New all time highs:   ADBE, AZO, ORLY,  ATHN, FB, EXPE, NFLX, HON, KORS, LOCK, MCO, UA, WYNN and more...
All time lows:   -

Pops:    ATHN, AKAM, EXPE,  KORS, GMCR, YUM    Drops:  DNB, LNKD, TWTR, 

Next week:  Economic reports, 

Earnings:    CSCO, WFM

Market Commentary

We could see this reversal continue next week and maybe take out the 1800 level again. The overall up-trend is broken though, so unless we get back into the up-channel and stay there, look to sell the rallies.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -up-trend broken?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing at $99.88 -touched $100!
Natural Gas was down, closing  at $4.77
Gold was up, closing at $1263
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing at 133.31
The US Dollar was down, closing at 80.76

NEWS:
Stocks rebound to post gain for the week
Stocks rally as growth worries fade; Dow posts best day of the year
'Ugly correction' coming: Dennis Gartman
Chart: What’s the real unemployment rate?
Republicans Discover Evidence of Jobs Crisis
Why the bad jobs number is really bad for the Fed
Why the dollar stays steady as America declines
Why Apple could be dead money for the next decade
The One Thing Everybody Got Wrong About Twitter

Over-Stimulated, Over-Priced
Japan will have a bond default: Fund manager
Moody's cuts Puerto Rico to junk
S&P cuts Puerto Rico's general obligation debt ratings to junk
Gold bugs, be patient your time is coming
Gold Price - Rising Wedge Formation on Verge of Collapse after US Job Data

Stock Market Blog -Feb 2nd

We closed out January with about a 5% loss in the Dow, while the S&P500 managed to also stay below the 50MA. Not a good year so far. Bond yields dropped a bit. Emerging markets continued to fall (EEM). Next week we get more earnings reports, along with the monthly Jobs report -both potential market movers.

AAPL surprised everyone on reporting earnings, causing the stock to drop around $50. Other big earnings movers included CAT, CMG, GOOG, AMZN, FB

New all time highs:   CMG, CMCSA, FB, GOOG, LOCK, NFLX, QIHU, UA, WYNN
All time lows:   -ABEV, BSBR, JCP

Pops:  ALXN, CMG, FB, GOOG, ZNGA,        Drops:  AAPL. AMZN, ADT, CVX, MAT

Next week:  Economic reports,  Monthly Jobs report on Friday!

Earnings: 

Mon -YUM

Tue -BP, KORS,

Wed -DIS, MRK, TWTR, HUM, GMCR, HD

Thu -GM, AET, SNE, DNDN, LNKD, EXPE, LOW

Fri -

Market Commentary

Next week we get more earnings reports . The short-term up-trend in the market seems to be broken for now. We could see a bounce from here though, then maybe followed by some more selling (we are at a support level here). Lets see how the market reacts to the Jobs report on Friday. We also have 4 DOW stocks reporting next week, including HD and DIS, both of which have tripled in the past 5 years!

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -up-trend intact?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing at $97.49 -under $100
Natural Gas was down, closing  at $4.94
Gold dropped, closing at $1239
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 133.6
The US Dollar was up, closing at 81.40

NEWS:
 January proves to be worst month for US stocks in more than a year

More bumps ahead as market awaits jobs
Chevron suffers Big Oil blues as US gushes fossil fuels (vid)
Cramer: How earnings could double at this tech 'monster'
Snapchat and the Disappearing Bears in the Stock Market
Why Mr. Market Is Still Wrong About Apple

Bernanke: One of the Best Fed Chairs Ever
Emerging market funds lose $9 billion in past week: Data
Crisis in Argentina sparks new gold rush
West-to-China gold flow props up prices

Stock Market Blog -Jan 26th

The market dropped late in the week, as traders scurried for the exits on news of a China slowdown, international currency issues, and just plain old profit taking from this extended market rally! Next week will be a big one for earnings, to include some of the big tech names like AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG (list below). On the international front, currency issues seem to be bubbling up -Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia... More layoffs were also announced this week.

New all time highs:    COV, MCK, SYNA -short list!
All time lows:   --BSBR, ARCO, ABEV

Pops:   NFLX, JNPR       Drops:   CSX, CLF, HLF, KSU, NOK, WYNN

Next week:  Economic reports,  -Fed meeting, GDP report, 

Earnings: 

Mon -AAPL, CAT, STX, X

Tue - AMGN, DD, DDD, F, T, PFE, YHOO

Wed - BA, BIIB, FB, LVS, QCOM

Thu - CELG, MMM, MO, UPS, V, XOM, AMZN, CMG, GOOG

Fri - MA

Market Commentary

Next week we get a barrage of earnings reports . The VIX finally spiked off the bottom, possibly indicating more downside action to come. I've said before that this market rally is long in the tooth, and continue to think that we will see a correction in coming weeks. The S&P500 also dropped below the 50MA on Friday. Selling rallies might be an appropriate trading strategy here.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -up-trend intact
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing at $96.82 -under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $5.09
Gold was up a bit, closing at $1264
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 132.8
The US Dollar was down, closing at 80.55

What happened here?

NEWS:

Week Ahead: Fed Tapering Decision and Earnings
Traders watching for signs to see if this selloff is the big one (vid)
 Daily State Of The Markets: Is It Time To Worry Again?
Apple preview: What investors and traders expect on Monday
Facebook to lose 80% of its users by 2017, according to a new study (vid)

Currency Massacre In Emerging Markets
Emerging market turmoil punctuates rough start to 2014
Argentina's Currency Falls Sharply Against the Dollar, Stirring Inflation Fears
 Puerto Rico On The Brink Of Default

Stock Market Blog -Jan 19th

The market was pretty much flat this week as the big banks reported earnings, and as we closed another cycle for monthly Options and 'leaps'. Bonds inched up in price, as did Gold.  With the jobs situation not really improving much, and with more layoff announcements, I don't expect much growth in the economy in the near term, and would expect the market to reflect that in some kind of pullback from this monster rally (we are near all time highs).

New all time highs:    ABT, ACN, AXP, CRM, GILD, GOOG, ILMN, INTU, V, SCTY, STX, WYNN...
All time lows:   --

Pops:    BEAM, TSLA      Drops:   BBY, COF, GME, HLF, LULU, NUS, SODA

Next week:  Economic reports, 

Best Buy shares tanked this week. So did LULU (look for more in the coming weeks maybe):

Earnings: 

Mon -

Tue - IBM, JNJ, TRV, VZ

Wed - NFLX, UTX

Thu - CELG, MCD, MSFT, SBUX

Fri - PG

Market Commentary

Next week we get another round of earnings reports (the market is closed on Monday, so it's a short week). The chart of the S&P500 could be forming a top at these lofty levels -watch for earnings to be the next catalyst for market direction. Also the VIX is near an all time low, another possible signal for a market reversal.

S&P500 vs. Gold for 2013

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -up-trend intact
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing at $94.37 -under $100
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.32
Gold was up a bit, closing at $1251
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 131.31
The US Dollar was up, closing at 81.36

NEWS:

Week Ahead: Tech Earnings and Housing Data
Intel to reduce global workforce by five percent in 2014
Here's what tends to happen after a strong year
This bull market is not over, says Jeremy Siegel (vid)
What to expect from Apple, Microsoft and Facebook this year
Is Google more innovative than Apple (vid)?

Chinese Economic Growth Slows To Lowest Level Since 1999
Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs (vid)
Gold manages modest weekly gain; Ends near $1,252
Gold contrarians say it’s time to start buying

Stock Market Blog -Jan 12th

This week the market rebounded a bit, in spite of bad news from the monthly Jobs report (only 74,000 jobs added -vs. approximately 200,000  expected. Also, the unemployment rate dropped to a surprise 6.7%, mainly because of people dropping out from those being counted, and not because they are getting jobs! Retail sales over the holidays was weak too. Bonds and Gold rallied.

New all time highs:    AET, BA, BIIB, CMCSA, DG, DTV, ESRX, CSX, MYL, STZ, PSX, UTX
All time lows:   

Pops:  ANF, FRX, ICPT, ISRG, MU, STZ,        Drops:   BBBY, SHLD

Next week:  Economic reports, 

Earnings: 

Mon -

Tue - JPM, WFC

Wed - BAC, CSX

Thu - AXP, C, GS, INTC, PNC, UNH

Fri - GE, MS, BK

Market Commentary

Next week kicks off earnings season for 2014. The year started off on a negative tone, so we'll see how the market reacts to company earnings in the next few weeks. We get earnings from all the big banks next week. The DOW appears to be a little weak.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -up-trend intact
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing at $92.74 -under $100
Natural Gas dropped, closing  at $4.13
Gold was up, closing at $1251
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 130.84
The US Dollar was mostly flat, closing at 80.66

NEWS:

Disappointing jobs report (vid)
Big miss: December job gains just 74,000
2013 ends with weakest job growth in years
Earnings pose the next hurdle for stocks
5 market worries keeping Cramer up at night
Volatility could come back big-time—here's why

Chart of the Day: The real unemployment rate?
Consumer Stocks Hit Record Highs
PC Shipments Mark Steepest Decline With 10 Percent Drop
Apple reports record-smashing $10 billion in 2013 App Store sales
What a coffee bull market means for your latte
China first to consume 20 million vehicles a year, annual sales rise by 14%

Stock Market Blog -Jan 5th

The year started off with a drop in the stock indices. Lets see what the next few weeks will bring, keeping in mind that starting next week, companies will begin to report earnings. After the big rally that we had in 2013, most traders expect some kind of pullback, and a much smaller gain for 2014 -we'll see. Lets also keep an eye on Bonds and Gold to see if the sell-off continues.

Biggest winner in the S&P500 for 2013: NFLX
AAPL dropped this week.

New all time highs:    AAP, ALXN, BBBY, DDD, DIS, HTZ, STX, SAVE...
All time lows:   

Pops:  , Drops:   

Next week:  Economic reports, Monthy Jobs report

Earnings:  AA, MU, MON

Market Commentary

We may be seeing the start of a pullback for the new year. Upcoming catalysts include the Jobs report on Friday, and another set of quarterly reports over the coming weeks. Until the up-trend is broken though, it makes sense to continue to be long. How can you tell when it's broken? Use a Moving Average, with a time frame that matches your time frame (e.g. 20MA, 50MA, etc).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -up-trend intact
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing at $95.44 -back under $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.30
Gold was up, closing at $1225
The 30 year Bond was mostly flat, closing at 128.53
The US Dollar rallied to close at 80.95

NEWS:

Stocks: 2013 is one for the record books
Stocks close mixed; Bernanke says economy should continue to improve
Big week for Fed, as traders await jobs report
11 companies that won in 2013
Gold Goes Out With A Drubbing

Can The Economic Recovery Last in 2014?

10 Most Shorted Stocks in the S&P 500
Runaway blue chip bull? Cramer’s Dow predictions (DOW stocks)
The case for ditching stocks and buying gold in 2014
1930s-style debt defaults likely, says IMF research
World markets: What's hot in 2014