Stock Market Update -May 31st

The market was up this week; maybe we will see it hit that 943 level on the S&P after all (the early January high). Commodities were up too, as the US Dollar continued to drop. Job losses continue, and not helping matters is a high probability of a GM bankruptcy just around the corner. New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again.

Commodities: This month commodities had the biggest gain in 34 years! Oil prices rose, closing just above $66 per barrel! Gold prices also rose ($979), as the US Dollar continued to drop in value. We are not far from $1000 gold prices again. Bonds also continued to fall, but recovered a bit toward the end of the week (bond prices drop = higher long term interest rates).



Next week : The GM bankruptcy is still pending; we also get the monthly payroll report on Friday, which is expected to show that the unemployment rate is now over 9%.

Market analysis: The market did hold at the support level mentioned last week, so now we will see if it can rally some more and break out of the trading range we have been stuck in for the month of May, or if it will break down again at the resistance level we are approaching. There is no clear direction at this point.

Why the Bulls Just Won't Die
Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop
Surprise! There are no more surprises
US Economy at Risk for Double-Dip Recession
Banks have declared war -- on you
Zombie banks walk among us
Hedge funds worried Obama moves could backfire
FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund Reserve Ratio Plunges To 0.27% Of Deposits
What should Obama do with shares in auto companies?
Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink
U.S. Hopes To Recoup GM Outlay In 5 Years

The $4 trillion housing headache
U.S. mortgage rate rise threatens housing recovery
Home mortgage delinquencies hit highest rate since 1972
Home prices still falling at record pace in first quarter
Housing Market Being Pounded By New Wave of Foreclosures
Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?
The next crisis has already begun

Stock Market Update -May 24th

The market was up on Monday, then backed down to close at about the same level where it started the week. There were concerns about the US debt levels and potential downgrades.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and two more banks were shut down by regulators on Friday (list). Mid week, the FDIC also shut down a large Florida bank.

Commodities: Oil prices continued to rise, closing around $61 per barrel, along with Gold prices, as the US Dollar continues to fall. Bond prices also continued to fall.


Next week we have a short week because of the Memorial day holiday on Monday. Earnings season is pretty much over now, so the market will be mostly news driven. We could get news of a GM bankruptcy later in the week.

Market analysis: If the market doesn't hold at this support level (see chart above), we could see further downside, maybe to the low 800s in the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 P/E Needs to Correct
Recession Turns Malls Into Ghost Towns
US Economic Recovery May Be a Long, Slow Slog
GM to file for bankruptcy as early as next week, report says
Obama signs credit card crackdown
Why S&P Lowered Its U.K. Debt Outlook

Dollar Is Dirt, Treasuries Are Toast, AAA Is Gone
Dollar Chart Tells a Much Different Story than Pundits Do
Is the U.S. Dollar Headed for a Mighty Crash?
Gold on verge of historic breakout?
Japan Economy Shrinks Record 15.2% as Exports, Spending Plunge
The Great Ethanol Scam

Stock Market Update -May 17th

The market finally broke its 2 month up-trend this week, as May options expired on Friday. We'll see how much it continues to pull back in the coming weeks. (I'm still waiting for GM to be booted from the DOW!) Oil prices may have reached a short term top at $60 as well.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 once more! Retail sales were down for April, and we continue to see more foreclosures being reported.

Commodities: Oil prices fell to around $56 per barrel after briefly touching $60. Gold prices rose to around $930, while the US Dollar recovered a bit from the previous downtrend. Bond prices also recovered a bit, as the stock market dropped (typical inverse relationship).

Next week we get earnings reports from Hewlett Packard, Lowe's, and Home Depot among others. Not much else going on.

Market analysis: The recent rally cooled off this week, and we could see more of the same in coming weeks, so it's a good time to take profits or hedge your positions. The 'inverse ETFs' provide a good way to hedge or profit from the downside in the markets (my inverse ETF listings).

What's Hot & Not this past week

Mutual Funds Are On A Tear
Don't Count on Your 401(k)
Nothing Suggests We're Anywhere Near the Bottom
Stock Pullbacks Then and Now: Is History About to Repeat Itself?
Home Prices in U.S. Drop Most on Record in Quarter
Is the State of California Broke?
Is America about to go broke?
The Risk of Debt
America’s triple A rating is at risk

The financial meltdown's unhappy anniversary
The banking industry -Three trillion dollars later...
Fannie Mae taps Treasury again after $23 billion loss
Fannie and Freddie Will Continue to Be Rescued by Taxpayers
Freddie Mac loses $9.9B
GM Follows in Chrysler's Footsteps
GM pulling plug on 1,100 'underperforming' dealers
EU slams Intel with record $1.45 billion fine

Stock Market Update -May 10th

The market was up again this week, though the NASDAQ and the Semis (SMH) showed some signs of weakness on Thursday (Cisco sold off as well after reporting earnings). The Financials also sold off on Thursday as we got the results of the stress tests (the banks need more money!) The monthly unemployment figure came in at 8.9% on Friday.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and another bank was shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to rise, closing around $58 per barrel. Gold prices also rose to $914, as the US Dollar continues to fall. Bond prices also continued to fall.



Next week earnings reports begin winding down. The market looks like it's starting to lose its strength here and could start to pull back, starting with the NASDAQ.

Jobless rate jumps to 8.9% even as job losses throttle back
Stress test shows bank credit losses could be $600 billion
Bank of America Needs $33.9 Billion, U.S. Says
G.M. Posts a Quarterly Loss of $6 Billion
General Motors: Officially Wiping Out Common Shareholders
Kass: Party's Over for Financials
Yet more evidence we're in a bear-market rally
If China loses faith the dollar will collapse

Stock Market Update -May 3rd

The market continues to move higher in spite of bad news: 1st Quarter GDP worse than expected at -6.1%, continued high unemployment figures, Chrysler filing for bankruptcy, and oil prices remaining over $50 per barrel.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, though this number may be starting to shrink, and three more banks were shut down by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices rose, closing just above $53 per barrel. Gold prices fell to $885, even though the US Dollar continued to fall. Bonds also continued to fall this week.


Next Thursday we get the results of the government's stress tests on 19 banks, followed on Friday by the monthly Jobs report, which is expected to be another bad number. Also Cisco and AIG are among the companies reporting earnings next week. The Treasury department is also expected to issue another $70 billion in notes -it's only money!

Market outlook: If the market is to rollover from this huge rally, this is probably the week it will do it, so be cautious. I believe the Financial sector could see a big move this week too; it has not been able to break out of a trading range for the past three weeks.

Jobless rate set for record
Economy shrinks at worse-than-expected pace
Why This Rally Is Unsustainable
Buffett dispenses gloom at Berkshire fest
Chrysler files for bankruptcy
Chrysler aftershocks to hit industry hard
Auto sales plunge to near 30-year lows

Reviewing Obama: How he's done so far
Citi Said to Need Up to $10 Billion
Only 1 way out of big economic hole
Treasury Prices Hit by Stronger Economic Data, Supply
Long Term Treasury Yields Likely to Rise, Pressuring Dollar Lower
China's gold buy raises eyebrows for all the right reasons

Stock Market Update -Apr 26th

The six week rally finally slowed down a bit this week as we got a slew of earning reports. Sector performance was mixed (see chart below). Ford shares rallied on their earnings announcement, while GM continues to struggle with a potential bankruptcy filing. American Express shares also rallied. The Materials sector got a boost as the US Dollar sank further -we could expect a further decline in the Dollar. Next week also have over $150 billion in Bonds being brought to market.

New Unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and this time four more banks were shut down by regulators (list), along with one Credit Union.

Commodities: Oil prices dipped, then closed back up around $51 per barrel. Gold prices rose to $913 as the US Dollar fell, and as China reported a huge rise in gold reserves. Bonds also fell further this week (resulting in higher interest rates).

Next week the earnings reports continue to roll in, including that of the major oil companies. We get the 1st quarter GDP report on Wednesday, and we also have a Fed meeting. We could also get news on the GM or Chrysler bankruptcy.

Market outlook: The market is poised to break thru the 875 level on the S&P500. So far the reaction to earnings has been mostly positive, so I expect the rally will continue up to the Jan 6th top of around 903, though it could be a bumpy ride getting there.

Six-Week Winning Streak Runs Out of Steam
Microsoft Q3 profit falls 32%
GM To Get Another $2 Billion, Lets Pontiac Brand Die
GM won’t make debt payment, bankruptcy ‘probable’
Freddie Mac CFO found dead
For Freddie And Fannie, Trouble At The Top
Shareholders Be Damned!
Bank Profits Appear Out of Thin Air
Did The Government Force Bank of America To Buy Merrill?

Recession, Far From Over, Already Setting Records
Dire straits for state budgets
A profitable commodity play
China reveals big rise in gold reserves. Holdings soar above 1,000 tons
Why I Fired My Broker

Stock Market Update -Apr 19th

The rally continues (6th week now) led by the Financial companies again, as we await more earnings reports next week. New unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and two more banks were closed by regulators (list).

Commodities: Oil prices are still holding around $50 per barrel, while Gold prices dropped further, closing near $868. The US Dollar index is gaining ground again, while Bonds look like they want to fall further (resulting in higher interest rates).


Next week we get earnings reports from some of the big companies like BAC, AXP, WFC, MS, IBM, MSFT, AAPL, KO, MCD, F, CAT, FCX, and lots more. This will be a big week for earnings, with many companies reporting.

Market outlook: We made it up to the 875 level in the S&P500 that I mentioned last week (see chart above). It's anyones guess as to whether it will now continue straight to the January high of 943, or whether it will pull back first, but I believe that is where we are headed (I think it will pull back first).

The Next Leg up in Financials
U.S. Aims to Release Bank Stress-Test Results May 4
Latest Jobs, Housing Reports Show Recession Isn't Over
General Growth Files Biggest U.S. Property Bankruptcy
Volcker: Recovery will be a 'long slog'
US foreclosures up 24 percent in 1st quarter

Taxing Grandma to Subsidize Goldman Sachs
Wells Fargo’s Profit Looks Too Good to Be True
Currency Illusions and the Gold Price Suppression
Dollar’s Fade Won’t Support Stock Rally
Averting Depression as Consumer in U.S. Fades

Stock Market Update -Apr 12

The rally continues, now 5 weeks in a row, with the Financial sector leading the way again! (see chart below, right). Looks like we might be headed for that January high that I mentioned last week. New unemployment claims for the week came in over 600,000 again, and two more banks were shut down by regulators.

Commodities: Oil prices are holding around $52 per barrel, while Gold prices continue to lose ground closing near $880.


Next week begins a new earnings season with big names reporting like Citi, Goldman, JP Morgan, GE, J&J, Intel, and Google. In addition there are a number of key economic reports due to be released, and don't forget Options expiration on Friday.

Market outlook: We could see a continuation of the rally up to the 875 level on the S&P500. It all depends on reaction to the earnings reports next week.

Big rally on Wall Street
Is market turning? Stay skeptical
Wells Fargo predicts a $3 billion profit
More Quickly Than It Began, The Banking Crisis Is Over
Government Sachs is in control

U.S. budget deficit triples to $957 billion for year
Now Almost 6 Million In Continuing Jobless Claims
Buyers return to Miami housing as prices plummet
Mall vacancies at a record high in 2009
Economists expect recession to end in September