Stock Market Update -Feb 28th

We saw very little change in the market this week. GDP figures were revised upward, though consumer confidence was down, unemployment figures were higher than expected, and housing sales were disappointing. Of course, Fannie Mae reported huge losses again!

After reporting earnings, BRCD and PALM were dumped, while TGT rallied.

Some stocks hitting ALL TIME HIGHS this week:
ARG, BIDU, ESRX, ROST, TEVA, MIL

New unemployment claims were up again, coming in at 496,000.
And two more banks were shutdown by the FDIC this week! (list).

Next week: We get the much anticipated monthly payroll report on Friday, along with a few more companies reporting earnings. A number of other economic reports are also scheduled to be released.

Market commentary: We are still in undecided territory -maybe this week will tell us if we go down further, or if we rally from here. I'd stay on the sidelines until we know where it wants to go. Keep your eye on the Dollar -if it continues to rally, stocks will probably dip again.

Commodities:
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing the week around $80 per barrel.
Natural Gas continues to drop, closing around $4.80
Gold prices were mostly unchanged, closing around $1118.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 80.4.
30 year Bond prices rallied to just over $119. Watch for this to turn down soon (if stocks rally).

News:
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Stock Market Update -Feb 21st

The market rallied for the second week in a row as we cleared the 1100 level in the S&P500, and cleared the previous high reached on Feb 2nd (see chart). Friday was options expiration day, and once again all the 'put' buyers on the indexes were left holding the bag! (there was a huge bias to the 'put' side). Maybe now we will see a move lower?

The Fed raised the discount rate in a surprise announcement on Thursday, but so far it has had little effect on the equity market. Meanwhile the debt clock has now passed the $12.5 trillion mark! Meanwhile Gold has broken out past the November highs in the Euro currency.

After reporting earnings this week, HPQ was up while DELL was down. FSLR also dropped.

Stocks hitting ALL TIME HIGHS this week: BIDU, CY, DNDN, GIS, NFLX,

New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 473,000.
And four more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: Earnings season is almost over, but this week includes reports from BRCD, DNDN, LOW, HD, NEM, NTES, ODP, SHLD, TGT, TSL, and PBR. The week also includes economic reports on consumer sentiment, GDP, and housing. In addition, the government will borrow another $118 billion via Treasury auctions.

Market commentary: The market regained strength this week and may have started another 'up' leg -we'll find out shortly. If it can get past this area of congestion, we will likely see 1150 on the S&P500 again, otherwise we will likely go back down to test the 1044 level -quite a range! The latter scenario will likely play out if the Dollar continues to gain strength.

Commodities:
Oil prices were up, closing the week around $80 per barrel.
Natural Gas continued to drop, closing around $5.00.
Gold prices were up, closing around $1121.
The US Dollar index was up, closing around 80.76.
30 year Bond prices fell to around $116 as the stock market rallied.

News:
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Stock Market Update -Feb 14th

We finally got a small relief rally this week (see chart below), but the bigger picture still shows a downward trend for the market at this time. Concerns about Greece and sovereign debt of other European nations continue to linger. This could continue to push the US Dollar up, and maybe contribute to the stock market down trend.

On the bright side...
BIDU was up on great earnings this week, hitting all time highs!
DNDN also hit all time highs.


New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 440,000.
No bank shutdowns this week! (list).

Next week: The markets will be closed on Moday for Presidents day. Earnings reports continue with reporting from AMAT, DELL, HPQ, PCLN, MRK, DE, ANF, JCP, WMT, BUCY, FSLR, APA, CHK, DVN, XTO, and PWE, among others. A number of gold & silver miners report next week as well (ABX, AEM, AU, HL, IAG, KGC).

Don't forget that Friday is also Options expiration day.

Market commentary:
The trend is still down, as we see a downward stair-step pattern in the S&P 500 since the middle of January. If this trend continues, we could see some support in the 1020 - 1040 area.

Keep your eye on the gold mining companies this week as some of them report earnings. We could see a pop in the GDX and GDXJ ETFs, as long as the US Dollar helps to support a higher gold price.

Commodities:
Oil prices were up, closing the week around $74 per barrel.
Natural Gas closed around $5.50 -it seems to be in a downward trend for now.
Gold prices were up, closing around $1095. Next week might tell us if we are still trending down.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 80.40.
Bond prices fell to around $118.

News:
U.S. stocks rise for the first time in 5 weeks
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for 11th Month
Freddie, Fannie escalate delinquent loan buyouts
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U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb, Consumer Confidence Slips
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Stock Market Update -Feb 7th

We have now seen four straight weeks of losses, resulting in a 10% correction. I mentioned concerns about Greece last week, and sure enough the Euro dropped, the Dollar gained strength, and the market got spooked, causing the DOW to dip below 10,000. However we could see a pause in the selling next week (we saw a big reversal on Friday). The monthly payroll report on Friday showed a loss of 20,000 jobs and the unemployment rate at 9.7 percent.

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New unemployment claims were higher than expected, coming in at 480,000.
And another bank was shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: Earnings season continues with reporting from DIS, KO, and S, among others. We could see a nice bounce in these companies if the market cooperates. Also scheduled to report are PNRA, CAKE, and CMG.

Market commentary:
The market reversed course on Friday, possibly signaling a brief rally to come. The sell-off will eventually resume however as it seems the bigger rally is over for now. Gold and Silver prices might dip one more time before resuming the up-trend (I expect Gold to approach the $1000 level before reversing course).

Commodities:
Oil prices were up, then fell, closing the week around $71 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing around $5.50.
Gold prices were up and down, like Oil, closing around $1050.
The US Dollar index was up, closing near 80.50.
Bond prices rallied up to $119.50, as stocks tumbled further.


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Stock Market Update -Jan 31st

Well, the first month of the year is over, and it was not a good one for the market. The chart below shows red in every sector. The market couldn't rally even with a great GDP number on Friday, and with great earnings from companies like MSFT, AMZN, and AAPL; in fact the technology sector sold off hard too. We may see a pause or a short term bounce soon though.

Stocks advancing in a bad market: GMCR GIS NFLX


New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 470,000.
And six more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: Earnings season continues with reporting from PFE, CSCO (Wed), V, MA, UPS, BP, and XOM (Mon), among others. XOM has already sold off hard in the past two months, so I don't expect much more downside action like we saw in CVX and COP. We also get the important monthly payroll report on Friday.

Market commentary:
We have had quite a pullback in the past two weeks, so I would expect some kind of relief rally or pause this week. The volume on this pullback has been high, so we could see more downside action eventually, maybe to the lows of last October (around 9600 on the DOW). The Dollar also continues to gain strength, and with concerns about Greece, we could see more upside action in the Dollar, which generally means more downside action in stocks.

Commodities:
Oil prices continued to slide, closing the week just under $73 per barrel.
Natural Gas was down, closing around $5.13.
Gold prices fell, closing around $1083; we could see more downside action here.
The US Dollar index was up, closing just under 80.
Bond prices rallied up to $118, again as stocks tumbled.

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Stock Market Update -Jan 24th

Another bad week for the markets. We got the correction I expected as I wrote in last week's update, as more earnings reports were released, and as the government proposed stricter regulations for banks, and as the US Dollar rallied some more. This was the worst week for the DOW since the rally began last March.

Amid the carnage, these stocks were up last week: ISRG CREE
Also: VXX (tracks volatility)
And some favorite leveraged inverse ETFs: FAZ, QID, SMN, SRS


New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 482,000.
Four more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: Earnings season continues with reporting from AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, YHOO, F, CAT, JNJ, and PG among others. We also get a number of economic reports, as well as a Fed meeting, and the GDP report, so it will probably be a volatile week.

Market commentary:
A correction has begun and we could see the DOW break below 10,000 again. If the response to upcoming earnings is anything like the past two weeks, we could see more stocks take a tumble. Gold equities have been hit hard in the past two weeks as well, but may have more downside action before rallying again. Likewise for commodity and basic materials stocks.

Also, the market once again fooled a lot of traders who were short, this time with Treasury Bonds! Bonds rallied, but we could see another 'short' opportunity here around 119, and possibly even higher.

Commodities:
Oil prices continued to slide, closing the week just under $73 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, closing around $5.80.
Gold prices fell, closing just under $1090, breaking under the $1100 mark again.
The US Dollar index was up, closing just under 78.50.
Bond prices rallied to $119 as stocks tumbled.

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Stock Market Update -Jan 17th

We got great earnings numbers from three DOW components, but the market sold off all three companies (AA, INTC, JPM) -this might be an indication of things to come next week! All the bearish Options traders were taken out this month as their 'puts' expired worthless yet again.


New unemployment claims for the week came in at 444,000.
Two more banks were shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: We have a short week. Lots of earnings reports this week including:
AXP, BAC, C, GS, MS, GE, GOOG, IBM

Market commentary: This week's market action will be mostly driven by earnings reports. Investor's sentiment is extremely high at this point, and may be a good contrarian indicator. The market may be finally topping out here for a short correction.

Commodities:
Oil prices topped out around $84, dropping all week to close around $78 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing around $5.70.
Gold prices were up and down, closing mostly unchanged around $1140.
The US Dollar index gained some strength on Friday, closing just over 77.
Bond prices were up for the week. closing just over $117.

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Stock Market Update -Jan 10th

The much anticipated jobs report came in worse than expected on Friday, but had little effect on the market. The unemployment rate remained at 10%, with 15.3 million officially unemployed! The market rallied on Monday, but was pretty much flat for the rest of the week.

CY, DNDN, ESRX, IVN, OSIS, TEVA, XRA hit all time highs this week!
Perhaps GOOG topped out this week with the Nexus phone announcement?


New unemployment claims for the week came in at 434,000 (chart).
Yet Another bank was shutdown this week! (list).

Next week: Earnings season begins with reporting from AA, INTC, and JPM, among others. We also get Retail sales on Thursday, and the CPI report on Friday, along with options expiration on Friday.

Market commentary: The market continues to rise as traders continue to bet against it. Maybe we'll see a change after options expiration on Friday, or as earnings reports begin to roll in. The bull trend is still very much intact until we see a downturn in the charts.

Commodities:
Oil prices continued to rise, closing the week around $83 per barrel.
Natural Gas was more or less unchanged, closing around $5.80.
Gold prices recovered a bit, closing around $1138.
The US Dollar index fell, closing just under 78.
Bond prices saw little net change for the week.

Hi yield Corporate Bond prices have performed as well as the S&P500 this past year (click image for an interactive chart). Investors have been chasing yields. Government Bonds didn't do so well (bottom chart).

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