Stock Market Blog -Nov 28th

This was a slow, directionless week in the market, though we also got a good Unemployment claims number on Wednesday. In commodities, Oil and Natural Gas were up, and so was the US Dollar!

CRM continued to hit all time highs!
Other all time highs: AAP, AZO, APKT, CAT, CMG, DECK, DLM, DLTR, FFIV, NFLX, ROST

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New unemployment claims for the week dropped to 407,000 (chart).
This week, three banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
...Whitney sees 5,000 bank branches closing

Next week: (Economic reports link). The big monthly jobs report will be released on Friday.

Market commentary: Not much action last week, but we could see some movement next week as we approach year end. Of the major indexes, the QQQQ and IWM seem to have a positive bias. The SPY and DIA appear to be consolidating, and could follow the QQQQ and IWM upward. Of course the consolidation could also break to the down side. The long term trend is still to the 'up' side however.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing just under $84 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied again, closing near $4.40.
Gold was up a bit, and closed around $1362.
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $127'17.
The US Dollar index was up again, closing around 80.40.

News:
Stocks end with a bang after jobless claims drop
Too much borrowing puts U.S. at risk: Bair
Irish bailout $112.5 billion

Stock Market Blog -Nov 21st

The market recovered some of its losses after the GM IPO on Wednesday night.

CRM surged on a good earnings report.

New unemployment claims for the week dropped to 439,000 (chart).
This week, three banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Short holiday week -Happy Thanksgiving!
Among companies reporting earnings next week: HPQ

Market commentary: The market dropped, then recovered on the GM IPO hype. There is a good chance that the market continues to move up from here, as it bounced off a support level. If you take long positions, keep your stops in place in case the rally fades back down.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $81.50 per barrel.
Natural Gas rallied, closing at $4.15.
Gold dropped, and closed around $1352.
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $127'07.
The US Dollar index was up slightly, closing around 78.60.

News:
Street ekes out weekly gain
GM debut weak, but analysts say that’s good
Municipal Funds Fall Most in Two Years as Bonds Drop, Borrowing Costs Rise
Inflation at lowest level since 1957
Signs that the Economy Is Better Than You Think
Ireland requests tens of billions in loans from EU
After Ireland, spotlight on Portugal, Spain

Stock Market Blog -Nov 14th

This week we saw a drop in the market, giving back all the gains from the prior week. Concerns about China, and weak earnings from CSCO were among the concerns of investors -and of course, the market was very overbought and due for a pullback. My comment from last week "...this rally is very extended right now, so I expect a small pullback".

We saw a huge drop in Gold & Silver on Friday, along with a few other commodities.

New unemployment claims for the week dropped to 435,000 (chart).
This week, three banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). CPI report next week (inflation?).
Also Options expiration!
Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

Mon	LOW
Tue	HD, WMT,
Wed	TGT, AMAT, NTAP
Thu	CRM, DELL, MRVL, SHLD,
Fri

Market commentary: The pullback this week was no surprise to most traders. The S&P500 had a non-stop rally from September 1st, closed over the April high, then promptly pulled back!
I don't expect much upside action this week, because of Options expiration on Friday, and the overly bullish sentiment of most investors (until last week anyway). I think we could see some of the popular names pull back even more this week, as the dollar continues to rally.

Commodities (charts): -commodities fell this week!
Oil prices dropped, closing near $85 per barrel.
Natural Gas pulled back, closing at $3.80.
Gold closed above $1400 for the first time ever, then dropped sharply back to $1365.
The 30 year Bond was down (in spite of QE2), closing near $127'30.
The US Dollar index was up (in spite of QE2), closing around 78.

News:
U.S. stocks drop on China rate fears
Intel approves 15% dividend hike
Cisco Delivers Unexpected Pain
GM reports $2B 3Q profit ahead of stock offering
In charts: Jobless claims, China CPI, deficit targets

Dollar pares gains after hitting 1-month high
Fed to Buy $105 Billion of Securities Through December
Ireland Urged to Take Aid by Officials Amid Debt Crisis
Margin boost, other woes hammer Irish bonds

Stock Market Blog -Nov 7th

The market reacted well to the elections, QE2 from the Fed, and a good monthly jobs report (unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6%). The market has been on a non-stop rally since it bottomed for the year back in July. It's likely that we'll see the trend continue to the end of the year, maybe after a small pullback (this rally is very extended right now, so I expect a small pullback).

Silver and Gold also continue to rally (new all time high for Gold), as well as most other commodities (oil, sugar, coffee, cotton, corn, soybeans, copper, to name a few!)

Even the 10 year Bond, and the Dollar were up this week!
Something has to give of course... all asset classes don't normally rally at the same time. Maybe we'll find out which one loses next week.

PETM and XEL hit an all time high this week (among many others).


New unemployment claims for the week were higher, rising to 457,000 (chart).
This week, four banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Market indexes are all now higher than the April high...
April earnings disappointments caused a selloff...
But we've been moving higher since the July earnings reports.

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

Mon	PCLN, PAAS, SLW, RAX, LDK, VVUS
Tue	JASO, GOLD, SOLF
Wed	AAP, DRYS, CSCO
Thu	ANF, NVDA, DIS
Fri	PBR

Market commentary: Well, we got a big news week, and a big rally. The market is saying that it wants to go higher. The S&P500 took out the 1220 level (April high) that I mentioned in last week's post. Longer term I expect more up-side action, though we may get a brief pullback first.

Commodities (charts): -commodities rallied this week!
Oil prices were up, closing near $87 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing just under $4.00.
Gold soared close to $1400, closing around $1397.
The 30 year Bond was down slightly, closing near $130'22.
The US Dollar index was down a bit after the Fed's QE2 announcement, closing around 77.

News:
Stocks end strong week at two-year highs
Federal Reserve to buy $600 billion in bonds
Bernanke: Not trying to increase inflation
Employers Add 151K Jobs
Bank stocks rally on dividend hopes
Starbucks Profit Rises 86% on Higher Store Traffic, Via Sales

Fannie Mae asks for $2.5 billion in new US aid
AIG cleans house; posts $2.4B loss for 3Q
GM to sell over $13 billion of shares

Avoid 'leveraged' ETFs which are in a 'down' trend!
Imagine 'compounding' your losses every day...

Stock Market Blog -Oct 31st

The market was mostly flat this week, though some 'hot' stocks continued to perform well -CMG, FFIV, IBM, PCLN, SLW, etc. October now makes two months of strong gains in the market. The GDP report on Friday however showed that we are still going nowhere in the economy.

New all time highs: AAP, AZO Auto parts! AGN, BVN, BWA, DECK, DTV, FFIV, IBM, INTU, KMX, MO, ORLY

All time low (inverse market index): QID

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New unemployment claims for the week dropped again, to 434,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Big week -Elections on Tuesday, Fed on Wednesday! Earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

Mon	BHI, GLW
Tue	ADM, BP, CLX, COCO, MA, NEM, PRGO, PFE, TEVA,
Wed	QCOM,
Thu	DTV, KFT, SBUX,
Fri	AMT, DISH, TM

Market commentary: The market is stalled until after the elections and the Fed meeting next week. The direction of the market won't be known until we get past those events. We could see a move in the US Dollar which will affect both the equity and the commodity markets.

The S&P500 could move up to the prior April high of around 1220.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing near $81 per barrel.
Natural Gas popped, closing around $4.00.
Gold recovered some losses, closing around $1357.
The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged, closing around 77.45.
The 30 year Bond was down slightly, closing near $131.

News:
Stocks Flat With Elections, Fed on Tap Next Week
Next Week’s Must See Earnings On Deck
Biggest Week of Year for Markets Could Bring More Volatility
Stocks, Commodities Gain in October as Treasuries Decline, Dollar Weakens
GDP rises 2% in third quarter on consumer spending
Record-low mortgage rates will be gone in 2011: MBA

QE2 a ‘Ponzi scheme’, says Pimco’s Gross
JPMorgan, HSBC Accused of Manipulating Silver Futures
Gold Will Outlive Dollar Once Slaughter Comes: John Hathaway
The Fed is fuelling the catastrophe of fast rising raw material prices
We're All Currency Traders Now

Stock Market Blog -Oct 24th

The market was mostly flat this week, as companies began to report earnings for the 3rd quarter. AAPL, IBM, VMW, and ISRG dropped a bit. AMZN, BIDU, EBAY, NFLX, GS, KO, and MCD, moved up. CMG was a big winner, BAC was the big loser.

The US Dollar gave back some of its earlier gains. Watch for possible action in the dollar after this weekend's G-20 summit.

New all time highs: AMZN, BIDU, MCD, MO
PCLN hit a new 2 year high.
New all time lows: Same as before! The leveraged index ETFs.

New weekly unemployment claims dropped to 452,000 (chart).
This week, seven more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). GDP is among the economic reports due next week. Also, earnings season continues, with the following companies among those reporting:

Mon	AMGN, TXN
Tue	CMI, DD, F, X, BRCM, FFIV,
Wed	COP, DB, ODP, ESRX, GG, PG, V
Thu	ABX, MMM, XOM, EGO, MSFT
Fri	CVX, MRK,

Market commentary: No change in the market's upward trend. I continue to believe the market will probably turn down when the US dollar starts to rebound, which could be soon.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing near $81 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing at a new low around $3.33. No bottom yet!
Gold dropped and broke its upward trend, closing around $1328.
The US Dollar index was up a bit, closing around 77.60.
The 30 year Bond was up slightly, closing near $132.

News:
Stocks end day mixed, slightly higher for week
China hikes interest rates
Yields on 30-Year Treasuries Rise Most in 14 Months on Inflation Prospects
Earnings to take spotlight next week
Foreclosures: Next shoe to drop for banks?
AIA’s IPO pricing boosts AIG turnaround plan
Mortgage Mess: Shredding the Dream
How the Foreclosure Fiasco Threatens the Economy

The amazing Amazon stock bubble
Gold-miner ETF fails to break 2008 peak
Coca-Cola 3Q net income rises 8.4 percent
Wells Fargo earnings top expectations
Bank of America Reports $7.3 Billion Loss, Citing Charges
The nation tires of Wall Street ‘justice’
The dollar disaster in one picture

Stock Market Blog -Oct 17th

This was another 'up' week for the market. After reporting earnings, INTC, JPM, and APOL sold off, but GOOG rocketed up $60! Financials were weak on concerns regarding foreclosures (BAC, COF, etc).

New all time highs: AAPL, AMZN, AAP, CTSH, MCD & YUM, MO, GLD & SLV & SLW
New all time lows: QID, SDS, TZA -leveraged market indexes!

New weekly unemployment claims rose to 462,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings season gets in to full swing, with the following companies among those reporting: (expect market volatality)

Mon	AAPL, IBM, C, HAL, PBR, VMW
Tue	BAC, KO, GS, JNJ, EMC, ISRG, YHOO
Wed	BA, BLK, MO, NFLX, UTX, WFC
Thu	AMZN, AXP, BIDU, CAT, MCD, MS, FCX, T, TRV, UPS,
Fri	F, VZ

All eyes are on AAPL, due to report on Monday.

Market commentary: The market continues to rally, so stay with the trend until it shows a definite turn. This will probably come when the US dollar reverses its decline. Maybe this week?


Of the major indexes, the 'technology laden' Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) is the only one that has taken out the April top (see chart below).


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing near $81 per barrel. We may be at a top here.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing at a new low around $3.50. We may be at a bottom.
Gold hit all time highs once again, closing around $1371. Getting close to a top!
The US Dollar index was down, closing around 77.25. Getting close to a bottom!
The 30 year Bond dropped, as stocks went up, closing just over $131.

Silver prices also rocketed up this week.
Commodity prices continue to rise as the US Dollar falls.

News:
U.S. stocks end mostly up after Google earnings
Google tops $600 a share
Core prices lowest in decades as CPI edges up
Apple earnings expected to blow out on iPhone

Mozilo settles Countrywide fraud case at $67.5 million
Fixed-rate mortgages fall to record low
In charts: Foreclosures, inflation and more
49-year core inflation low
Deficit tops $1 trillion second year in a row
Social Security benefits won’t rise in 2011
Know when to dump a losing fund

Stock Market Blog -Oct 10th

The market rallied again this week, though some tech stocks saw surprising declines (EQIX, VMW, CTXS, CRM, FFIV, etc.).

The much anticipated jobs report on Friday was a disappointment, but the market held up, with the DOW closing just over 11,000. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6%. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to slide.

The Yen and the Euro continue to gain against the US dollar.

New all time highs: IBM, MO, NKE, YUM
All time lows: DXD, SDS, TZA, QID -leveraged market indexes!

New unemployment claims fell to 445,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shutdown by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings season kicks off once again with the following companies reporting: INTC, GOOG, JPM, GE

Market commentary: The market continues to rally, though many traders continue to try to put on short positions. Until we see a real turn on the charts, the 'long' traders will win out over those that are short! Maybe after options expiration this week?

The US dollar decline has been driving some of this rally, and is becoming extended on the down-side. Keep your eye on the dollar; also keep your eye on bonds, which have been rising with stocks -this is the opposite of the normal correlation.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing near $83 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped again, closing around $3.60.
Gold hit all time highs again, closing around $1344.
The US Dollar index continued down, closing around 77.50.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing just over $134.

News:
U.S. stocks rally; Dow closes above 11,000
Jobs Drop by 95,000 in September, Unemployment Rate Unchanged
Unemployment claims drop for 4th time in 5 weeks
Consumer bankruptcy filings climb 11%
Equinix Stock Obliterated
Intel, AMD to kick off ‘choppy’ earnings season
Google seen reporting sharp profit, sales gains
It's official: Android is now the most popular smartphone OS
Gold hits new record after Japan cuts rates
Corn rallies to two-year high after crop forecast