Stock Market Blog -Jun 26th

Lots of indecision in the markets this week. Seems like the Fed Chairman spooked the market on Wednesday, with a weak outlook on the US economy. The US Dollar rallied as the Euro dropped (not sure which came first!), while all other asset classes dropped, including Oil, Gold, and the S&P 500. Of course Bonds rallied as money looked for a safer place to hide.

New all time highs: SOLR -this solar company is rallying while all others are dropping!
Also BIIB, LULU


GOOG continues to drop as technology (XLK) tries to find a bottom in this downdraft.


Next week: (Economic reports link). Next week marks the end of the quarter -we could see some mutual fund window dressing affect the markets.

Market commentary: We are still trying to put in a bottom in the market -maybe after the quarter ends this week?

News:

Stock Market Blog -Jun 19th

The market continued its downward trend this week, approaching a potential level of support at 1250 on the S&P 500. We'll probably get a bounce at that level. With all the news about Greece, the Euro dropped, helping to push the US Dollar up, and stocks and commodities down. Oil and Natural Gas saw a big drop this week, while Bonds rallied.

RIMM tumbled some more this week on bad earnings.
AAPL & GOOG dropped on Friday -Options expiration??


New unemployment claims dropped to 414,000 (chart).
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). We have a Fed meeting next week, along with earnings from ORCL and FDX. We should also get news on the financial crisis in Greece on Monday.

Market commentary: 'Looks like we may be headed down to the next support level near 1250 on the S&P 500' -This was last week's comment. We are almost there. I'm looking for a bounce in that area, but the big picture is still bearish.

This month marks the end of the Fed's QE2 stimulus program. This month also marks the end of the 2nd quarter (mutual funds window dressing?).

This weeks charts:
SPY -S&P 500 -approaching the March bottom
XLK -Technology -already past the March bottom
TLT -Gov bonds -will they go higher?

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices tumbled, closing around $92.90 per barrel.
Natural Gas dropped to near $4.33.
Gold was up a bit, closing near $1540.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $127'06.
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 75.45.

Corn dropped, after rallying to all time highs last week.
Most commodities were down, as the Euro dropped, and the dollar rallied.

News:
Stocks have their first winning week since April
Investors search for signs U.S. will avert a double dip
Fed set to cut growth forecast during meeting
U.S. recovery could take until 2018
Investors Take Warning: Storm Clouds Gathering

Pandora sees quick rise and fall with IPO
Oracle seeks billions from Google over Java patent
J.C. Penney taps Apple’s retail chief as CEO
How long can BofA shareholders tread water?
10 Vintage Stocks Worth a Fortune
Greece poses $41 billion risk to U.S. banks
UK banks abandon eurozone over Greek default fears

Stock Market Blog -Jun 12th

Another ugly week in the markets. The market dropped as the US Dollar rallied against the Euro. Bonds held up, keeping interest rates down. The $600 billion QE2 stimulus from the Fed is winding down this month, so we'll see how the market reacts. BTW, QE2 didn't work -just more money down the drain!

AAPL stock continued to drop, in spite of the much anticipated developers conference with Steve Jobs on Monday. RIMM, CSCO, and others also continued to drop.


The major indexes are all down since May 1st.; meanwhile Bonds are up...


New unemployment claims increased again to 427,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
Unofficial Problem Bank list over 1,000 Institutions

Next week: (Economic reports link). Don't forget Options & Futures expiration this coming Friday, a quarterly expiration cycle.

Market commentary: Looks like we may be headed down to the next support level near 1250 on the S&P 500. We are also approaching the 200MA, so we can expect at least a nice bounce when we get there.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices are still stuck in a trading range, closing just over $99 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up, then dropped to near $4.75.
Gold dropped a bit, closing near $1528.
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $126'31.
The US Dollar was up, closing near 74.83.

Corn rallied to all time highs after a negative crop report!

News:
Dow falls below 12K; stocks drop 6 weeks straight
Investors nervous as stock market eyes correction
Yes, You Should Buy TIPS; Here's How and When
Things could get ugly as debt cloud grows
Two Clear Warning Signs From the Corporate Bond Markets
It might be time to talk double-dip recession
Meredith Whitney: State finances are worse than estimated


Investing: Why bank stocks went bust
It's time to bet against the government
The Fallacy Of the Steep Yield Curve
Second-Mortgage Misery
Why do we fear a rising China?
Exxon discovers 700 million barrels in Gulf of Mex

Stock Market Blog -Jun 5th

We saw a sharp sell-off in the market this week after an attempted rally early in the week. Bad economic news, including a very disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Friday, caused the market to continue the sell-off started on May 1st! The unemployment rate is back up to 9.1%, and the DOW is now down 5 weeks in a row.

The market was unable to gather any strength in spite of a pullback in the US Dollar. Bonds were up again as investors scurried for safety.

New all time highs: PHK, HANS, NFLX -nothing stops Netflix!


New unemployment claims dropped to 422,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Market commentary: Well, The S&P 500 did fail to stay above the 1340 level that I mentioned last week, and dropped like a rock when it got there! We could find support near here (1300), get a bounce, then drop again to the next support level near 1250.

Prior week comment...

This week!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing just over $100 per barrel.
Natural Gas was up again, closing near $4.70.
Gold was up, closing near $1541.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $126'18.
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 73.80.

News:
Stocks post fifth straight week of losses
Dow Average Has Its Longest Weekly Slump Since 2004
Payrolls Expand at Slowest Pace in Eight Months as U.S. Slowdown Persists
State of U.S. economy grows murkier

Unemployment Jumps Back to 9.1%
Falling Home Prices Hit Big Banks, Fannie, Freddie
R.I.P. Reaganomics Revolution: 1981-2011

Stock Market Blog -May 29th

The market dropped on Monday, then rallied back to recoup those losses by the end of the week. GDP numbers were disappointing however. Overall, the market has been down 4 weeks in a row. Bonds rallied again this week.

New all time highs: COH, CRM, GMCR, NFLX, NVS, TIF

5 Earnings Busters to Trade Now, Part I
Better Real Estate Investing: 4 High Yield REITs


New unemployment claims rose to 424,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Markets are closed on Monday for Memorial day. The monthly jobs report will be released on Friday, a potential market moving event.

Market commentary: If the S&P 500 can rally over the 1340 level, we could see more up-side in the market. Note that the last 2 rally attempts this month have both failed.


Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly up, closing just over $100 per barrel
Natural Gas was up, closing near $4.50.
Gold was up, closing near $1535.
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $125'25.
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 75.

News:
Stock investors brace for next round of weak data
Economic Growth Disappoints as GDP Gain Just 1.8%
Where's the Recovery? Hopes For Economic Rebound Fade
Why Corporate Bonds May Not Be Such a Smart Bet
Why Strong Dollar Hurts Stocks, and What You Can Do
Summer forecast: weak stocks and a big sell-off. Then QE3?
Government Doesn't Create Jobs
General Motors Will Never Repay Taxpayers

Overseas
Ten Reasons Why China is Different
Norway’s lessons for Brazil
Euro Falls on Europe Debt Concern
Fitch lowers outlook on Japan sovereign debt
The Audacity of Chinese Frauds

Chinese investment gone bad!

Stock Market Blog -May 22nd

Stocks were mixed for the week, making little progress overall. The chart below shows that the S&P500 is still near the 1340 level it hit in February. Caution would be advised for short term investors; for the long term, the up-trend is still intact (see 2nd chart below).

One bright spot, maybe, was the IPO for LinkedIn which opened at $45, shot up to $122, and closed on Friday around $93. Anyone remember 1999 -the 'dot-com' era?

Pops this week: CRM
Drops: ARUN, GPS, HPQ, SPLS
New all time highs: MCD, MO, XLP

The long term trend is still intact (well above the 200 day moving average)

New unemployment claims dropped to 409,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Earnings: CPB, AMAT, NTAP

Market commentary: The market still seems weak, hovering at the 1340 price level on the S&P500! Bond prices are going up, and the US Dollar is rising. As the chart below shows the correlation, the market will probably drop some more if the US Dollar continues to rally.

This Chart Says It All

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were mostly flat, closing around $99.50 per barrel
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.23.
Gold was up, closing near $1508.
Silver closed around $35
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $124'27.
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 75.57.
Corn and Wheat were both up

News:
Stock investors worry: Is ride getting rougher?
Treasurys add to week’s gains on Europe worries
US dips into pension funds as debt limit hit
A Shovel-Empty Waste Of $787 Billion
Pop till you drop (LinkedIn IPO)
Midcaps: The market's 'sweet spot'
Nasdaq Deja Vu
Meaningless ‘strong dollar’

Overseas
Fitch cuts Greece, warns against ‘re-profiling’
In Spain, protesters rally a battered nation

Stock Market Blog -May 15th

The market was indecisive this week, closing mostly unchanged. The US Dollar rally continued, putting more pressure on stocks and commodities. The Financial and Energy sectors were hardest hit.

AAPL and BIDU were weak; also SINA, SOHU
CSCO dropped after reporting earnings, and GS dropped further on a downgrade.

S&P sector leaders - XLV, XLU S&P sector laggards - XLB, XLF, XLE,

10 triple-digit stock winners

High priced DOW stocks have recently been hitting all time highs and pushing up the index
(the DOW is a 'price weighted' index!)

DOW laggards 3 Dow stocks that are in a slow death spiral

New unemployment claims dropped a bit to 434,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Options expiration on Friday.

Quarterly earnings season is winding down; companies reporting include: HD, WMT

Market commentary: We are back at the 1340ish support level in the S&P500. We could bounce or break from here -wait to see which direction it takes. The market seems to be getting weaker. We are basically back to the late February 1340 price level on the S&P!

The 'big picture' chart below shows that the NASDAQ and the Russell small caps are at long term resistance levels, while the DOW and S&P have yet to make it up there.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices rallied, then dropped, closing around $99.65 per barrel
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $4.25.
Gold was up slightly, closing near $1493.
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged, closing near $124'14.
The US Dollar continued its rally, closing near 75.94.

The big picture...

News:
As stock market slows down, defensive stocks shine
Commercial real estate poisoning small banks
Fannie Mae seeks $8.5 billion more in federal aid

$6.2 trillion: A decade of deficits
Treasuries fall after disappointing 30-year auction
Has the Commodities Bubble Popped?
No more free lunch for commodities investors

Who's buying ETFs
Too Hot for Their Own Good? 10 Overheating Stocks Ripe for a Pullback
Rajaratnam convicted on all insider trading charges

Stock Market Blog -May 8th

This was a bad week in the market. The dollar rallied and as a result took everything down, including stocks. Commodities plunged (Oil, Gold, Silver, and more). The 'energy' sector was the hardest hit (see sector chart below).

Thursday's unemployment claims report was much higher than expected. And the jobs report on Friday had both good and bad news -more jobs were added, but the unemployment rate is back up to 9%. The market rallied in the morning, then gave it all back!

GMCR rallied (all time high), while OPEN plunged... BIDU dropped too, and ROST hit an all time high.


New unemployment claims rose unexpectedly, again, this time to 474,000 (chart).
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). $72 billion more in Treasury auctions next week (selling dollars!)

Quarterly earnings season is winding down; companies reporting include:
Mon:
Tue: DIS
Wed: CSCO
Thu: NVDA
Fri:

Market commentary: After pulling back last week, we could now see the market resume the up-trend from the current support level in the S&P500. The direction next week would give us a hint as to whether we can expect more downside action. If the dollar continues to rally, it will have a negative impact on stocks (and commodities). Also, the pullback in Oil and Silver was so severe that we should at least see a little bounce.

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices plunged from $115 to close around $97 per barrel!
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $4.23.
Gold plunged, closing near $1491.
Silver plunged, closing near 35.28
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $124'10.
The US Dollar rallied, closing near 75.

Most commodities were hammered this week as the dollar rallied!

News:
Unemployment Rate Back to 9%
IShares Silver ETF has $1 Billion Outflow—Worst Week Ever
Panic in the Pits: Silver Plunge Spreads to Oil, Copper
Mini 'Crashes' Hit Commodity Trade
Commodities Bubble Bursting? Not By a Long Shot: Pros
THE TIPPING POINT HAS ARRIVED

Citigroup Tries to Boost Image With a Reverse Stock Split
Fannie bailout nears $100 billion
Fannie Mae seeks $8.5 billion more in federal aid
Inevitability of a Default in Greece