Stock Market Blog -Sep 24th

The Fed spoke, and the markets tanked! We saw a huge drop on Wednesday and Thursday after the Fed meeting and their announcement of a new bond swap program, along with a weak outlook for the economy. In addition Gold and Silver plunged on Friday, catching a lot of people off guard.

New all time highs: GR, AGG, BND, IEF
All time lows: TBT, TAN

Solar stocks continue to be hit hard

NFLX continued to tumble this week!
FDX dropped after reporting earnings.

New unemployment claims were down, coming in at 423,000 (chart). 
This week, two more banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link).

Market Commentary

The market dropped, and continues to trade in a range that started in early August. We are now at the bottom of that range again, and could turn back up next week. If we break down instead, we could see continued selling down to the 1050 - 1000 level on the S&P500!

This weeks charts: 

Gold tanked
TLT top? (Bonds)
NFLX is done!
 
Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices tanked, closing around $78 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was lower, closing near $3.68
Gold tanked, closing around $1650. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up, closing near $144. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was lower, closing near 76.60

Silver drop on Friday!

News:
Last Stand For The Bulls
About 44 million in U.S. lived below poverty line in 2009, census data show
U.S. poverty rate increases to 1 in 6 people
Silver, Platinum, Copper Fall Out Of Bed
Top Ten Weekly Sell-Offs in Gold and Silver
Uncertainty Plagues Euro Zone as Crisis Rages On

Stock Market Blog -Sep 18th

We got a nice rally this week, which happened to also include 'quarterly' options expiration. We'll see how the rest of the quarter plays out through September 30th. For a new up-trend to be established, a lot of price resistance has to be overcome from the August drop. 

Gold lost some of its luster, while Bonds continue to hold up well.

New all time highs: Amazing AMZN! ATHN, AZO, BBBY, COST, CL, DMND, DG, DLTR, DUK, HANS, JAZZ, KO, MA, NUS, ORLY, SO, TJX -are we really in a bear market? INTC is also showing good strength.


All time lows: STP (Solar stocks have been hit hard lately)


NFLX and RIMM tumbled this week!

New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 428,000 (chart). 
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Fed meeting next week -we may get some kind of market moving announcement. Also, FDX and ORCL report earnings.

Market Commentary

We did get a relief rally this week, and it did crush the bears (last week's post)! 
I expect a pullback now, then maybe another push higher, but with high volatility, anything could happen. Stocks are still hitting new all time highs (see above), so this 'bear market' could just be losing some strength. The Nasdaq 100 is already showing 'higher highs' over some recent tops. Watch for any surprise announcement by the Fed next week too!

This weeks charts: 
Amazing Amazon
Gold pulled back
TLT may be reversing? (Bonds)
The Euro recovered a bit

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were higher, closing around $87.96 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was slightly lower, closing near $3.81
Gold dropped, closing around $1815. 
The 30 year Bond futures dropped, closing near $139.78. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was lower, closing near 76.60

News:  
Stocks finish their second-best week in a year
Stocks Advance 5.4% for the Week
3 Reasons Why The S&P 500 Index Will Move Higher 
Market Recap: 15 Reasons the Dow Rallied 4.7% and Gold Dipped
U.S. Federal Reserve Steps Up to Buoy Global Financial Markets

Foreclosure filings jump 7% in August from July
Alabama County Nears $3.14 Billion Settlement, Avoids Historic Muni Bankruptcy


Buy EMC To Get VMware's Growth, But Not At VMware's Price
Buy Starbucks To Give Your Portfolio A Caffeinated Boost
10 Stocks That Are Cheaper Than You Think

UBS Has $2B Loss; Man Arrested in London
Is Netflix the Next Research in Motion?

RIMM Misses on Lower Sales
Microsoft unveils a radically redesigned Windows 8 
Bank Of America Just Took Armageddon Off The Table 

Central banks to provide dollar liquidity
How a stronger dollar shakes up your portfolio
Euro Will Continue To Fall: US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Gold Best Hedging Options

Stock Market Blog -Sep 11th

The market ended the week with a 300+ drop in the DOW on Friday. Lots of uncertainty with the 911 anniversary on Sunday, a G7 meeting this weekend, Europe still in financial turmoil, and people trying to analyze the President's jobs speech given on Thursday night. Investors were running to safety, buying the 10 year Treasury notes and pushing the yield under 2%  (post WWII levels), and also buying Gold.

BAC continues to be under pressure, with a corporate shakeup this week.
Likewise for YHOO, where they ousted the CEO.

New all time highs: AZO, ORLY, IEF, Gold stocks: AUY, GDX, NEM, NGD, RGLD 
Continuing to lose ground: HPQ, GS, JPM, DB, STD, UBS, HBC, BCS, CS, EFA,

 The Euro plummeted further this week, after breaking a support level on the charts at 1.40, so we could see further downside action there, and in the S&P 500, since they generally trade in the same direction.
 
The Swiss Franc also dropped after government intervention, also helping to push up the US Dollar, and further weakening the S&P 500.


New unemployment claims were up, coming in at 414,000 (chart). 
This week, another bank was shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Quarterly options expiration on Friday. Best Buy and RIMM to report earnings.

Market Commentary

Lets not forget that we are still in a bear market, so if you are buying anything, it should only be for a short bounce. The S&P500 could drop further to 'test' the previous low of Aug 8th, then maybe give us another bounce?  On the other hand, we could see a relief rally on Monday or Tuesday, which would crush all the bears! This being options expiration week, and the end of the 3rd quarter, we should see added volatility, so expect anything! And don't forget the full moon on Monday too.

To hedge your portfolio from further downside action, inverse ETFs might be appropriate, as long as you understand 1) how they work, and 2) how to hedge! (SDS, QID, etc)

This weeks charts: 
Bonds still climbing!

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were higher, closing around $87.24 per barrel. 
Natural Gas was slightly higher, closing near $3.92
Gold was up, then dropped, closing at $1860. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up again, closing near $140'14. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was higher, closing near 77.20, and pushing the S&P 500 down.

News: 
Dow headed below 10,000 as cyclical bear begins
Markets Seeing Nothing but Classic Bear Action
Behind the Selloff: US Is Struggling, Europe Is Worse
Deepening fears about Europe sink stocks
U.S. Stocks Drop on Greece Concern
Greek default fears return

What's in Obama's stimulus plan

Is a Bottom in for the Dollar?
Euro Falls to Six-Month Low Against the Dollar as Stark Resigns from ECB
French Banks Poised for Moody’s Downgrade
Europe Banks Valued at Post-Lehman Low

Stock Market Blog -Sep 4th

After some weak economic data, and no more Fed stimulus, the market pulled back near the end of the week. The monthly jobs data was a big disappointment, again. Unemployment remains at 9.1%, with zero new jobs added for last month! Good riddance to an ugly August for investors.

Gold mining stocks were up this week, with some breakouts.

New all time highs: CF, IEF, KO.  Gold stocks -GDX, NEM, EGO, RGLD, NGD
New all time lows: TBT (inverse bonds), ZSL (inverse silver)
COMPANIES HITTING 52-WEEK HIGHS/LOWS






HPQ and RIMM are back below the lows of March 2009, the beginning of the 2 year rally!

New unemployment claims dropped, coming in at 409,000 (chart). 
This week, two banks were shut down by the FDIC!(list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Market Commentary

Well the market did bounce, then pull back. Was that the top for this recent bounce? It could be. We get to hear from the President on Thursday evening about creating new jobs again. We'll see how the market reacts. Can the 10 year bonds go any higher??



Issues in Europe with Greece and others could continue to keep the markets down. Our stock indexes seem to generally trade in the same direction as the Euro. September months can be ugly too!

This weeks charts: 
Gold climbing again
Bonds still climbing!

Commodities (charts): 
Oil prices were mostly unchanged, closing around $86.50 per barrel. 
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $3.86
Gold was up again, closing at $1879. 
The 30 year Bond futures were up again, closing near $140'14. Still no top... 
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 74.88

News: 
Stocks plunge after US hiring dries up in August
Stocks Lose for Week as Recession Fears Grow
Feds sue big banks over sales of risky investments
U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages
How Low Can The 10-Year Treasury Yield Go? (Part 1)

Ackermann Says Market Reminiscent of 2008
Bank of America May Have to Sell Merrill to Survive
Bank of America Loses Its Bounce
Netflix stock falls as talks on Starz deal unravel
The 10 Highest Momentum Stocks
Guide for Nervous Investors: What to Watch This Month

Euro-zone manufacturing PMI drops to two-year low

Stock Market Blog -Aug 28th

The market showed some strength this week, closing near the highs after the Fed speech on Friday. Gold spiked to just over $1900 per ounce before dropping back a bit. Meanwhile, Greece continues to have financing issues in Euroland.

Apple this week announced the departure of Steve Jobs as CEO.The stock dropped initially, then rebounded.

New all time highs: CF, RGLD, NGD,
COMPANIES HITTING 52-WEEK HIGHS/LOWS

New unemployment claims came in higher again at 417,000 (chart).
This week, no banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).

Next week: (Economic reports link). Friday we get the monthly jobs report again -usually a market moving event.

Market Commentary

We got a nice bounce this week, which could indicate that the selling is over. The risk/reward favors the upside at  this point so I would say it's safe to get in for a short term bounce. Until the market moves back over the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages though, the 'bigger trend' is still to the down side.

This weeks charts:

In charts: Weak GDP and weaker consumption
Gold hit another all time high, then pulled back
TAN -Solar ETF in the weeds 
COCO -from $20 to $2!

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices were up, closing around $85.37 per barrel.
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing near $3.93
Gold was up, then pulled back, closing at $1797.
The 30 year Bond futures was up again, closing near $138.16 Still no top...
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing near 73.71
Meanwhile Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Rice continue to climb in price.

News: 
Stocks break four-week losing streak
Economy: 'Slowdown is here to stay'
Three Bond ETFs To Weather The Storm
Beware the Bond Bubble. Again
What Bernanke said in Jackson Hole
Investors stick with Treasuries after Bernanke
Editorial: The Fed Should Go On Vacation

Buffett bets $5 billion on Bank of America
Morgan Stanley borrowed $107 billion, most of all banks, during 2008 financial company bailout
What’s B of A's problem now?

Debt will haunt the market for years to come

One Number Says it All

What Makes Steve Jobs Great
Why McDonald's wins in any economy

Gold $3,000?
Greek Bond Yields Climb to Record High on Speculation Bailout Will Fail

Stock Market Blog -Aug 21st

This week we saw some big sell offs again in the market, though the volume wasn't quite as high as the sell offs earlier this month. Much of it was sparked by fears of a European financial crisis, along with bad economic numbers reported again this week. I won't be surprised to see a 2008 style financial crisis in Europe before long. Investors flee stock funds at rate not seen since 2008 panic

The 10 year bond reached an historic low yield below 2%, lower than during the 2008 financial meltdown! Is the bond market telling us something here???

Gold was on fire, and hit another record high! Last week marked 40 years since President Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard. Gold was $35 per oz. then, today it's $1852 per oz.

Google spent $12.5 billion to buy Motorola Mobility for their patents!

Hewlett Packard tanked on Friday, hitting prices not seen since 2005.
SHLD also dropped.


New unemployment claims came in at 408,000 (chart).
This week, three more banks were shut down by the FDIC! (list).
Next week: (Economic reports link). Annual Fed meeting on Friday.

Bank stocks are in trouble again!
Bank of America
Citibank
Regions?
Bank of New York
  (click to see charts)

Foreign banks: Deutsche Bank Societe Generale Barclays PLC

Market Commentary

We 'did' get a nice bounce on Monday, and European financial issues 'did' spoil the party -just what I said last week! I would still look for a bounce soon, to start getting out of long positions. I suspect the market will drop to the recent lows, then give us a bounce. Keep an eye on Europe still, as I expect things over there to deteriorate further. In a worst case scenario, we could fall all the way back down to 1050 or 1010 on the SPX, and give back all the QE2 gains!
Market’s rally from oversold levels may not stick

Looks like we are headed for a bear market as investors lose confidence, and into another recession as well (as if the first one ever ended!)

BTW, I'm one of those that believe high frequency trading should be banned (trading thousands of transactions in milliseconds). It can often cause unnecessary disruptions in what should be an orderly market, and it's only a matter of time before it creates another 'flash crash' or worse. This is not investing, it's becoming 'War Games' for stocks, where the computers take over the trading.

This weeks charts:
10 year Note yield hitting all time lows!
Gold continues to hit all time highs

Commodities (charts):
Oil prices dropped, closing around $82.25 per barrel. Looks like it's headed to $72
Natural Gas dropped too, closing near $3.94
Gold was up again, closing at $1852.
Silver broke out, above the $42 level.
The 30 year Bond was up again, closing near $140.31 Light volume, but still no top yet!
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 74.05

Steep move up in Bonds

News:
Another nasty week for Wall Street
3 Crashes and Another Credit Crisis
Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored
Treasury Rally Pushes Yields to Record Lows
Bond markets signal 'Japanese' slump for US and Europe

Euro-Style Anxiety Spreads
BofA layoffs are the latest as an industry shrinks
For foreigners, the American Dream is very much alive
Road to downgrade began 40 years ago with ditching of gold standard

Overseas... Fears over French banks -Panic in Paris
Euro -We can't go on like this
German Second-Quarter Growth Almost Stalls as GDP Rises 0.1%

Japan's 20 year slump after their real estate bubble. Are we facing the same thing?