Stock Market Blog -Sep 30th

This week we pulled back into the up-channel in effect since June. This week also marks the end of the 3rd quarter, and a good one it was, for stocks and also for Gold. We saw the market get back up to the 2007 highs (before the financial crisis). AAPL helped to push the markets up, but we also saw good performance from some of the DOW stocks. Bonds started to break down this quarter too.

New all time highs:    ACN, ALXN, CAG, DFS, LQD, N, RGLD, WPI
All time lows: 
Pops: ACN,
Drops:  FTNT

Next week: Economic reports  * Monthly Jobs report on Friday *
Earnings reports from MON, MOS, and FDO

Market Commentary

My call last week for a pullback turned out to be a good one -all the stars were lined up as they say. Next week could bring more volatility as we get the Jobs report on Friday, and some other important economic reports, so buckle up. Some stocks are still very 'overbought' like GOOG, HD, DIS, WMT, etc.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -more correction, or rally back up from here?
OptionsMakeSense

With all the attention focused on AAPL, few have noticed that GOOG is up $200 recently!

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $92.19
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $3.32
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1771
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $149.38
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.03

NEWS:
Week ahead for stocks: All eyes on jobs
'Zombie Economy' May Give Markets a Scare in October
Apple CEO: "We are extremely sorry" for Maps frustration
Major banks hit with biggest cyberattacks in history
The 3 most overvalued assets today

Anyone Wondering Why Google's Stock Is Soaring Should Look At The Cash Flow...
Salesforce, NetSuite markets keep growing
BofA to Pay $2.43 Billion to End Investor Lawsuit Over Merrill
China manufacturing continues to slump

Stock Market Blog -Sep 23rd

The market was pretty much flat this week, as quarterly Options expiration approached. I guess everything was positioned just right! AAPL pinned at $700 (I predicted that, based on the options open interest). Maybe we'll see a small correction in the market for October? The VIX is also at a very low level, typically a turning point for the market. Bonds could rally again.

New all time highs:   AAPL, ABT, AEP, ALXN, CAG, CBS, CCI, CMCSA, COV, CVX, DIS, DISCA, DRI, EXPE, FBHS, GILD, KORS, LNKD, LTD, PG, RAX, RGLD, TRV, WFM, XLV
All time lows:  VXX
Pops: CAG, KBH
Drops:  BBBY, FDX, JCP, NSC, QCOR, 

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports from DFS, NKE, and RIMM

Market Commentary

The market could be ready for a pullback here -low VIX, quarterly Options expiration out of the way, Bonds rallying, etc. (see VIX chart below). October can be a volatile month, so buying 'volatility' could pay off (e.g. VXX). We could see a correction in AAPL too, now that the news is out. And problems with the Euro still lurk in the background. These are all contrarian views (the charts don't really point to a well defined top).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -overbought/low VIX
OptionsMakeSense

VIX bottom = Market top?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $92.89
Natural Gas dropped a bit, closing near $2.89
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1775
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $146.88
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 79.40

NEWS:
Stocks: U.S. economy in focus
Market Expects More Drama Heading Into Fourth Quarter
Bank of America reportedly plans to cut 16,000 jobs
Why Investors May Get a Flood of One-Time Dividends Soon
S&P 500: The Apple effect

Bearish Treasury Bets Hit a Record Amid Inflation Concern
The Recession That Won't End
Specter of China 'Hard Landing' Haunts Global Economy
The Next Panic

Stock Market Blog -Sep 16th

The market rallied this week after the FED announced another helicopter drop, to the tune of $40 billion per month, indefinitely! Full speed ahead. As you would expect, the US Dollar dropped, Bonds dropped, and Gold rallied.

New all time highs:  AAPL, ACN, AMZN, COST, CBS, CBE, COV, DIS, DFS, DTV, CVX, FL, FBHS, GILD, ITW, LNKD, PG, PSX, RAX, RGLD, UA, XLV, XLY, XOM, XRT, JNK, HYG
All time lows:  VXX, SDS, TZA -again! also EDZ, FAZ, ERY
Pops: everything!
Drops:   AZO

Next week: Economic reports 
Earnings reports from ORCL, FDX, and GIS
Don't forget Options expiration on Friday -quarterly too.

Market Commentary

Pretty much the same commentary as last week! The market continued to rally, keeping the trend in place, so the trade is still to be long stocks -and the Fed did move the markets! Volatility continues to approach new lows (VIX), meaning that stocks could be also be close to a top -it's very extended at this point. Maybe we'll see a turn after Options expiration.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -now overbought
OptionsMakeSense

NASDAQ vs. S&P 500 (15 years)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $99
Natural Gas rallied, closing near $2.94
Gold rallied again, closing near $1770
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $144.56
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 78.84

NEWS:
U.S. Stocks Rally to Highest Since 2007 Amid Fed Stimulus
Sign of the Times: 22% of the S&P 500 at New Multi-Year Highs
Fed Unveils QE3
Fed Juices Stocks—but What Could Bring Out the Bears?
Time to Bail Out on Treasurys?
Dow average dumps Kraft Foods for UnitedHealth
Moody’s Warns That U.S. May Face Debt Downgrade
Amazon Grossly Overpriced

Stock Market Blog -Sep 9th

We got a nice rally this week as the ECB announced their bond buying program. We also saw a lot of stocks break out to new highs, including the NASDAQ hitting a new 12 year high!  However, the disappointing monthly jobs report on Friday put a damper on the party. Also Fedex and Intel reduced their guidance based on a weakening economy. Lots of stocks hitting all time highs this week!

GOOG and AMZN continue to rally nicely!

New all time highs:    AAPL, AMZN, BUD, CCI, COST, CVX, CBS, DIS, DTV,  EW, FL, FBHS, GILD, ITW, LNKD, PG, RAX, RGLD, REGN, UA, ULTA, XLV, XLY, XOM, XRT
All time lows:  VXX, SDS, TZA
Pops:  CMG, FCX, LULU
Drops:  

Next week: Economic reports  Apple is expected to launch their new iPhone on Wednesday.

...Fed Meeting, Apple Event, German Court Decision

Market Commentary

The market continued to rally, keeping the trend in place, so the trade is still to be long stocks. The Fed could move the market on Wednesday, so be cautious. Volatility is approaching a low again (VIX), meaning that stocks could be close to a top. Gold is rallying once again as the US Dollar drops.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still trending up
OptionsMakeSense

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing near $96.32
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $2.66
Gold rallied again, closing near $1735
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $148.63
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 80.18

NEWS:Nasdaq Reaches Highest Level Since 2000 On Major ECB Decision
Apple and Amazon Make This a Very Different Nasdaq
Markets Crave Stimulus—Will the Fed Give Them Their Fix?
FedEx Echoes GLOBAL SLOWDOWN Fears

Is Jeff Bezos the Next Steve Jobs?
Is Apple’s Stock a BUY at Today’s Price?
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Earnings: Investors LOVE These Numbers

Stock Market Blog -Sep 2nd

The market waited all week for the Fed speech on Friday, then it turned out to be a non-event! Meanwhile Bond futures kept slowly creeping up all week, peaking on Friday. Gold also rallied. The NASDAQ has been mostly flat for the past two weeks (QQQ), though we did see a small rise in the VIX. Next Friday we get the monthly unemployment report. Meanwhile, FB and GRPN hit all time lows this week.

*** Our national debt is now over $16 gazillion dollars! (see debt clock on the left)

New all time highs:   AMZN, BUD, CCI, COST, ESRX, FBHS, PVH, REGN, RGLD, STZ, UA, XLV
All time lows: FB, GRPN
Pops:  P, WLP
Drops:  BPT, CIEN

Next week: Economic reports  (markets are closed on Monday)

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: CPB
The big event next week will be the monthly jobs report on Friday. Also look out for news from Europe.

Market Commentary

September is usually a month that investors view with caution, and this year is no different. The market is currently poised near a top (compared to last April's top), so we could see a reversal. However anything is possible, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the rally continue as well.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -still struggling at this double top from April
OptionsMakeSense -VXX sample trade

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped a bit, closing near $96.47
Natural Gas was up, closing near $2.80
Gold rallied again, closing near $1685
The 30 year Bond rallied again, closing near $150.50
The US Dollar dropped a bit, closing near 81.22

NEWS:
Stocks: Europe and jobs front and center
Is Wall Street on the Cusp of the Next Great Rally?
Too Soon to Unfriend Facebook?
Summertime Blues: Slowdown Spreading Around World
The Euro Crisis Is Back From Vacation
China’s Growing Economic Crisis

Stock Market Blog -Aug 26th

The market finally got back up to the April high this week, then pulled back a bit. Next week will probably tell us where the market wants to go next, after the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole. It's also coming up on the end of the summer season, when supposedly Wall Street gets back to work in September. Meanwhile Oil prices are approaching $100 per barrel again, and Gold prices also popped this week. DELL and HPQ both dropped after reporting earnings.

The national debt is now approaching $16,000,000,000,000! (debt clock on the left)

New all time highs:   AMZN, CBS, DFS, FBHS, HAIN, ITW, KORS, KFT, RGLD, STZ, SJM, WPI
All time lows: ANGI, MCP
Pops: HAIN, LLY, SRZ, URBN, WSM
Drops:  ADSK, BBY, BIG, DELL, HPQ

Next week: Economic reports  

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: CIEN, TIF
The Fed meeting in Jackson Hole late next week could be a market mover, as investors await word on QE3 stimulus.

Market Commentary

We pulled back from the 1422 high on the SPX just as I mentioned last week! Next week will probably be quiet until the Fed meeting. We could see a sharp pullback on missed expectations from the Fed (we've had a nice rally since the beginning of June). AAPL could also propel the market higher on Monday following their victory in the Samsung copyright case.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -at the April high. Looks like a double top so far...
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $97.45
Natural Gas was up, closing near $2.75
Gold rallied, closing near $1677
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $148.19
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 81.65

NEWS:
Stocks: Investors await Bernanke speech
Unemployment Claims Highest In 5 Weeks, Rise To 372,000
Sweeping Apple Win, but Samsung Set for Bounce-Back
Forget Apple, Forget Facebook: Here's The One Company That Actually Terrifies Google Execs
Serious Divergence: Dow, S&P Vs. EUR/USD

The Best Of The S&P 500
Is The SuperDividend ETF For You?
There's a Surprise in Your Next 401(k) Statement
Gold and silver surge on Fed hopes
What Bubble? Why Bond Pros Are Still Betting on Junk

Stock Market Blog -Aug 19th

The market continued to move up this week, extending the rally to highs not seen since the 2007 top. The SPY ETF (S&P500) is flirting with all time highs! In reverse correlation, we are finally seeing Bonds dropping in price. We could see a lot of Bond bulls capitulate, driving prices even lower, though we are now at a decent support level. Also, Oil is now above $95 per barrel again.

Facebook falls to half of public offering price
AAPL hit a new all time high this week.
WMT and SPLS dropped after reporting earnings

New all time highs:  AAPL, CVX, CF, DFS, FL, FBHS, KORS, PM, PSX, STX, STZ, SJM, SWI, TJX,
All time lows: FB, GRPN, MCP
Pops: ANN, CSCO, KORS, SJM
Drops:  CHL, GRPN, MRVL, NTES, SPLS

Next week: Economic reports  

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: 
BBY, DELL, HPQ, LOW

Market Commentary

We are still heading to 1422 on the SPX (just about there), where I think we should see some kind of pullback.The VIX continues to drop, and is now below the April bottom, a level which could also confirm some downside in the market in the near future. Everyone is looking at the same predictions, which scares me into thinking we'll all get faked out and the market will continue higher -so be careful. Maybe sell Iron Condors to play both sides (OptionsMakeSense).
Bonds dropped again, and TLT still looks attractive, now at a support level.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -almost at the April high. Will we see a double top?
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied again, closing near $96
Natural Gas pulled back slightly, closing near $2.71
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing near $1617
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $145.88 -4 week drop!
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing near 82.67

NEWS:
Dow ends higher for sixth week 
Is This Market Rally Legit or Nothing but a Head Fake?
Apple Closes at New All-Time High
Sell Apple: Longs Could Be in For a Fall
State unemployment rates rise in 44 states
Fannie and Freddie: The Walking Dead
General Motors Is Headed For Bankruptcy -- Again
Think twice before jumping on gold’s bandwagon
Jim Rogers on the Coming Fiscal ‘Catastrophe’

Stock Market Blog -Aug 12th

Stocks continued the rally this week, although at a slower pace and with light volume. Bonds dropped as stocks rallied. Gold rallied a bit too. Next week we get earnings from a few more DOW companies. Corn prices continue to hit record highs as drought conditions persist.

PCLN dropped more than $100 after reporting earnings.

New all time highs:    CVX, STX,
All time lows: 
Pops: DF
Drops:  MNST PCLN

Next week: Economic reports   ...Options expiration

Earnings reports:   Among companies reporting next week are: 
CSCO, DE, DLTR, GRPN, HD, TGT, WMT

Market Commentary

Last week's comment: "we could see 1400 on the SPX before long. Where we go from there is anyone's guess, but if we take out the April high of 1422, we could go much higher" -looks like we're heading for the 1422 level. Don't forget Options expiration this week -another reason the market will probably hold up.
The VIX is now below 15, a level which could indicate some downside in the market in the near future.

Bonds dropped again, and still looks attractive (TLT).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 -up-channel still intact
OptionsMakeSense -trade with low cost and high probabilities

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil rallied, closing near $92.87
Natural Gas pulled back, closing near $2.77
Gold was up, closing near $1620
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $148.84
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing near 82.63

NEWS:Is this the rally?
Dow Theory Still Says Sell
Stocks May Climb in These Dog Days of Summer
Will a Strong Dollar Finally Be Good Sign for Stocks?
Banks Stealing Our Wealth and Our Sovereignty
Why Are Investors Fleeing Equities? Hint: It’s Not the Computers

Insight: Knight's Joyce gets reprieve but new owners want answers
JCPenney Hasn't Hit Bottom Yet: Analyst
Google's Recent Quarter Should Scare Rivals
10 things Apple won’t tell you
9 Reasons Facebook Will Crash
Hard landing for China as factory prices fall and deflation looms