Stock Market Blog -Feb 24th

The market saw its first weekly loss for the year. Jobless claims rose by 20,000. Gold and Oil prices dropped, while the Dollar and Bonds rallied.

New all time highs:    AON, CHD, COG, CL, D, HCN, KMB, TRV, VTR...
All time lows: PGH
Pops:  FIRE    -Drops:  GRMN, HUM, PAY, TOL

Next week: Economic reports  Fed Chairman speaks...
Earnings reports:  HD, LOW, M,  QCOR,  (retailers)

Market Commentary

 
We finally got a pullback from the rally that started last November. I don't think the pullback is over yet, especially with anxiety over the upcoming budget cuts in government this week. This week's potential market movers: Budget/sequester, Fed before Congress.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...getting ready for a bigger pullback?
OptionsMakeSense

  The VIX finally moved up this week, after hitting muli-year lows... 

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $93.13
Natural Gas was up, closing near $3.29
Gold dropped, closing near $1572 -below 1600!
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing near $144
The US Dollar was up again, closing near 81.58

NEWS:
S&P, Nasdaq wrap up worst week of 2013
Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market
Office Depot to buy rival OfficeMax
Visa And MasterCard: Great Long-Term Stocks With Positive Upgrades
The 8 Largest ETFs On Earth
Consumers sitting on $9 billion in old iPhones
Microsoft's Hotmail phase-out: What's a user to do?

Jobless claims climb 20,000 to 362,000
Fed officials: Don't worry if we lose money
The Consequences of a Strong Dollar
Is Gold Finished? 

Stock Market Blog -Feb 17th

The market edged higher again this week, with the Smalll Cap Rssell 2000 hitting another all time high. This in spite of the Dollar moving higher! So much for that correlation. Gold dropped, approaching the $1600 level.

New all time highs:   ACN, CBS, DIS, GIS, GOOG, JNJ, LNKD, MYL, NWSA, PSX, STZ, TRV, etc.

All time lows: -
Pops: AOL, AVP, BCS, 
Drops:  A, CLF, NVO, RAX, ULTA

Next week: Economic reports  Markets are closed on Monday.
Earnings reports:  HPQ, INTU, WMT,

Market Commentary

 
No change from last week! "The market is very unpredictable here, though the up-trend is still intact. I think the S&P500 may see some more up-side, approaching the all time high. The NASDAQ 100 has been a laggard, but maybe AAPL will give it a boost."
Watch for WMT and HPQ earnings (DOW components).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...even higher?
OptionsMakeSense

  Still watching the VIX at these muli-year lows...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up then down, closing near $95.75
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.14
Gold dropped, closing near $1615
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $143.28
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.71

NEWS:
S&P 500 rises for 7th week in a row
Wal-Mart Executives Sweat Slow February Start in E-Mails
Rich world heads into recession
Why Can’t This Economy Really Get Going?
Secular Bear Market “Hibernation”

U.S. Accuses S. & P. of Fraud in Suit on Loan Bundles
Global Debt Accumulation Reaches Record Levels
Bull Wagers Tumble Most This Year as Gold Bets Drop: Commodities
The Consequences of a Strong Dollar
Soros dumps gold as prices sink

Stock Market Blog -Feb 10th

The market inched higher this week (S&P500), despite a rise in the US Dollar, and a small rise in Bonds. We could be slowly forming a top in this area. European concerns are starting to get the markets attention again. GOOG now hitting all time highs -are they the new AAPL?

The Fed is buying 80% of the Treasury market today...
The debt clock is now approaching $16.5 trillion!

New all time highs:  GIS, GILD, GOOG, HON, JNJ, LNKD, MMM, MPC, OCN, PRI, PSX, and more...
All time lows: -
Pops: APKT, ATVI, LNKD,
Drops:  AKAM, MCO, MHP

Next week: Economic reports  
Earnings reports:  ANF, CSCO, DE, KO, NTAP, PEP, WFM

Market Commentary

 
The market is very unpredictable here, though the up-trend is still intact. I think the S&P500 may see some more up-side, approaching the all time high. The NASDAQ 100 has been a laggard, but maybe AAPL will give it a boost.This week the S&P500 was up, Bonds were up, and the Dollar was up! These normally move in opposite directions, so something has to give soon...

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...even higher?
OptionsMakeSense

  Still watching the VIX at these low levels -creeping up?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing near $95.72
Natural Gas was little changed, closing near $3.27
Gold was little changed, closing near $1667
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near $143.69
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.32

NEWS:
Wall Street rises, Nasdaq at 12-year closing high
Dow May Struggle to Outdo Itself as Caution Takes Hold
Trade deficit falls 20.7% in December
Bullish Blizzard

Median Household Incomes: The 'Real' Story
Think the Bond Bull Is Dead—Think Again
Why Bill Gross Says You Should Be Investing in Gold
Dell goes private in $24 billion buyout
Why This Was a Pivotal Week for Europe

Stock Market Blog Feb 3rd

The market continued higher this week in spite of less than stellar economic news. The unemployment rate moved up slightly. The DOW closed over 14000, the S&P hit a 5 year high, and Bonds dropped. All is well again??

New all time highs:  CELG, EXPE, GOOG,GILD, HON, MMM, PG, PSX,
All time lows: -
Pops: CTXS, FTNT, PRGO
Drops:  COP, RIMM, VMW

Next week: Economic reports  
Earnings reports:
Mon -BIDU, EW, GILD, HUM, YUM
Tue -CMG, DIS
Wed -GMCR, V
Thu -SNE
Fri -

Market Commentary

 
So we did close out the month with the S&P500 closing over 1500. Where next? Possibly some more up-side approaching the all time high. The DOW also closed over 14000, a 5 year high. The euphoria will probably get some more folks into the market.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...now over 1500
OptionsMakeSense

  Still watching the VIX at these low levels -creeping up?

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $97.77
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.30
Gold was up, closing near $1670
The 30 year Bond dropped again, closing near $142.84
The US Dollar dropped again, closing near 79.13

NEWS:
Disturbing Trend In Growth From January Jobs Report
Stunning Bond Collapse Will Be Gold's Gain
The Germans Want Their Gold Reserves Back In Germany

Stock Market Blog -Jan 27th

The market continued to climb higher, in spite of a huge drop in AAPL after reporting earnings. IBM and PG helped the DOW rally after reporting their earnings. DIS, JNJ, HD, MMM, and UTX were up too (DOW components).  If all you did was to buy stock at the beginning of the year, you could stop trading now and book a nice profit for 2013!

The NDX (Nasdaq 100) index is the laggard in the market, due to the tumble in AAPL shares. Gold and Bonds dropped for the week.The Yen continued to weaken.

Earnings results last week? AAPL dropped, while GOOG and NFLX popped!
Big week for earnings next week!



New all time highs:  AMZN, COP, DIS, GILD, JNJ, LOW, MMM, PPG, etc. -lots!
All time lows: -
Pops:  GOOG, NFLX, PCLN
Drops:  AAPL, COH

Next week: Economic reports   Also a Fed meeting, and the monthly jobs report on Friday.
Earnings reports:
Mon -BIIB, CAT, YHOO, VMW
Tue -AMZN, F, PFE
Wed -BA, COP, FB, QCOM
Thu -CL, MA, MO, UPS
Fri -MRK, CVX, XOM

Market Commentary

 
The S&P500 did hit 1500 like I predicted last week. Next week could bring more upside action as we close out the month. However we are at very overbought levels here so be careful. With a deluge of earnings reports, a Fed meeting, and the monthly Jobs report on Friday, we could see a volatile week.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...heading to 1500? It touched!
OptionsMakeSense

  Still watching the VIX at these low levels...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $95.91
Natural Gas dropped, closing near $3.39
Gold dropped, closing near $1658
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing near $143.94
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 79.86

NEWS:
Earnings Buzz: What to Watch in the Week Ahead
RIM to advertise BlackBerry 10 during Super Bowl
Apple Sales Gain Slowest Since ’09 as Competition Climbs
Chart: An Apple flash dump

Fed’s Bond Buying Pushes Assets to Record $3 Trillion
China's growth to hit 8% in 2013
Europe: It's Japan, only worse

Stock Market Blog -Jan 20th

Another good week for the markets. The S&P500 closed around 1485 on Friday, so I expect we'll see 1500 before long. All the indexes are hitting 5 year highs, and the VIX is hitting multi-year lows (chart below). Some people see the extremely low VIX as a potential signal for a short term market top. We've been in rally mode since November. Oil continues to climb, while Gold gained some ground as well. The Dollar was up for the week.

7 Reasons Markets Are Overbought, And What To Do 
Risk Of 'Double-Rip' On The Rise

New all time highs:  ARCT, AMZN, CBS, CELG, COV, CMCSA, CVS, JNJ, HCA, LOW, MMM, PPG, PSX, TRV, VMED.. and more
All time lows: -
Pops:  LIFE,
Drops:  COF,

Next week: Economic reports  
Earnings reports:
Mon -market closed
Tue -DD, FCX, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, GOOG, TRV, VZ
Wed -AAPL, AMGN MCD, NFLX
Thu -BMY, CELG, MMM, MSFT, SBUX, T
Fri -PG, HON, HAL

Market Commentary

The S&P500 looks like it wants to reach up to 1500, since its only 15 points away! I think at that point we could see a pullback. AAPL and GOOG will move the Nasdaq 100 when they report earnings (the NASDAQ has been lagging the other indexes). With all the earnings reports, we could see a volatile week.
Markets are closed on Monday.

AAPL and GOOG report earnings next week!

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...heading to 1500?
OptionsMakeSense

 The VIX is at an extremely low level here...

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $95.26
Natural Gas was up slightly, closing near $3.59
Gold was up, closing near $1687
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $145.75
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.15

NEWS:
Dow Average Rises to 5-Year High Amid Debt-Ceiling Talks
Next Week's Key Earnings Reports
Lowest Initial Claims Reading Since January 2008
Why aren't investors scared?
The State Of The U.S. Bond Market Is Getting Worse
Apple risks repeating the 1980s

How Mario Draghi Found a Way to Rescue the Euro
Welcome to the global currency war
Germany Repatriating Gold From NY, Paris 'In Case Of A Currency Crisis'
Germany looks to bring 700 tons of gold home
Japan’s Debt Time Bomb Is Ticking: Kyle Bass

Stock Market Blog -Jan 13th

This was a pretty quiet week in the markets. Next week we may see some more action as we begin earnings reporting season, with the week after that being the big one. The Euro spiked up this week, while the Yen continued its downward spiral. Gold looks to be getting weaker. Bonds are on the weak side too, and so is the Dollar. Even AAPL is weak, in spite of a strong stock market.

New all time highs:  AGN, CVS, CELG, PPG, TRV, UNP
All time lows: -
Pops:  BBY, CELG, INFY
Drops:

Next week: Economic reports  
Earnings reports:
Mon -
Tue -
Wed -GS, JPM, EBAY
Thu -BAC, C, UNH, INTC
Fri -GE

Market Commentary

Basically the same commentary as last week! "Now that the fiscal cliff news is over, the next market catalyst will be earnings reports over the next few weeks. We could break above resistance on the S&P500, or bounce off. Maybe take a position, and use a close stop, or wait for the trend to develop. With earnings coming up, volatility typically rises on individual stocks, presenting better opportunities with Options plays.  Volatility is also very low on the overall market, possibly hinting at a turnaround in this rally."

The market looks like it still wants to creep a little higher... maybe the DOW will reach up for the previous high (the S&P has already taken it out).

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...topping?
OptionsMakeSense

                                                 The Euro spiked up, while the Yen continued to drop (USD/JPY up)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $93.56
Natural Gas was up slightly, closing near $3.33
Gold was up, closing near $1660
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing near $145.28
The US Dollar dropped, closing near 76.91

NEWS:

Stock Market Blog -Jan 6th

The market started us off with a Happy New Year rally, thanks to the fiscal cliff being pushed off to the side for now. The Small Cap Russell 2000 reached an all time high! We are at a resistance point here in the S&P500, so we could see a pullback. Earnings reports next week will probably be the  determining factor. The Dollar was up too, which normally causes stocks to fall.

Bonds and Gold sold off. I think this gives us another opportunity to buy Gold at these levels.

New all time highs:  AGN, CVS, CELG, EXPE, HRL, URBN
All time lows: ?
Pops:   HRL
Drops: FDO, UNH, MLNX

Next week: Economic reports  

Earnings reports:
Mon -
Tue -AA, MON
Wed -
Thu -
Fri -WFC

Market Commentary

Now that the fiscal cliff news is over, the next market catalyst will be earnings reports over the next few weeks. We could break above resistance on the S&P500, or bounce off. Maybe take a position, and use a close stop, or wait for the trend to develop. With earnings coming up, volatility typically rises on individual stocks, presenting better opportunities with Options plays.  Volatility is also very low on the overall market, possibly hinting at a turnaround in this rally.

This week's charts:

Weekly Unemployment claims
S&P 500 ...resistance top?
OptionsMakeSense

6 month Sector performance  -Financials leading

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing near $93.09
Natural Gas was down, closing near $3.29
Gold dropped again, closing near $1649
The 30 year Bond was down, closing near $144.50
The US Dollar was up, closing near 80.61

NEWS:
Friday: Dow Up 500 Points To Start The Year - Should We Quit While We're Ahead?
Market Has a Big 2013 Open, Now Brace for Earnings
Week Ahead: No Cliff, But Earnings and Housing Data
End of Stimulus? What's Behind Fed's Surprise Statement
The Worst Performing Large Cap Stocks of 2012 


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