Stock Market Blog -Apr 27th

The market pulled back on Friday after the recent rally. We saw some selling this week in popular names like AMZN, FB, NFLX, P, QCOM, T. We got a nice pop from AAPL after reporting earnings, and also a surprise 7:1 stock split. Next week we get more earnings reports, the Fed meeting, and the Jobs report on Friday.

New all time highs:   AGN, HCA, PSX
All time lows:   -

Pops:  AGN,  Drops:   P

Next week:  Economic reports,   * Fed meeting *,   * Monthly Jobs report *

Earnings:     

Mon - HLF

Tue - BMY, BSX, DDD, EBAY, MRK, PNRA, TWTR, VLO

Wed - MET

Thu - MA, CLX, KRFT, LNKD, COP, XOM,

Fri - CVS, CVX

Market Commentary

Looks like we may have hit some resistance after this recent rally. Lots of market events next week, so it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. If the market follows recent patterns, we are in for another down leg.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $100.60  -dropping?
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.65
Gold was up, closing at $1300
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing at 134.94

The US Dollar was down a bit, closing at 79.82

NEWS:
How will the market react to Fed, earnings and jobs report? -Vid
Why it may not be smart to sell in May -Vid
How to play Apple’s surprise stock split -Vid
Why David Einhorn is right about tech stocks
Einhorn's Premature Bubble Call
Where Are All the Homebuyers?

U.S. Deficit Cut by Almost One-Third to $492 Billion: CBO
China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates 

We got a rally this week and recovered most of the losses from the prior week. Crude Oil is approaching $105, while Gold dropped below $1300 again. Lots of tech earnings next week, including AAPL, AMZN, and MSFT.

IBM dropped after reporting earnings. YHOO rallied, mostly based on its Alibaba ownership.

New all time highs:   COP, HAL, 
All time lows:   -

Pops:   SNDK, YHOO    Drops:   IBM

Next week:  Economic reports, 

Earnings:     

Mon - NFLX, HAL

Tue - T, MCD, YUM, GILD, AMGN, ISRG

Wed - AAPL, FB, QCOM, PG, BA, EMC

Thu - AMZN, MSFT, VZ, UPS, CAT, V, BIDU, CELG, SBUX

Fri - CL, F

Market Commentary

We did get a bounce last week as I expected. Not sure if we'll see any follow through next week though -my guess is that there is a good chance for more down-side action again.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $104.30  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.74
Gold dropped, closing at $1293
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing at 133.90
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing at 79.90

NEWS:

 U.S. Deficit Cut by Almost One-Third to $492 Billion: CBO
10 of the Best ETF Trades of All Time
China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates
Don’t Get Hit By a Falling BRIC

Stock Market Blog -Apr 13th

The market continued to drop this week for no apparent reason -maybe profit taking? The indexes are now in a losing position for the year. I mentioned last week that the DOW appeared to have made a double top. Bonds, Gold, and Oil were up for the week. The US Dollar dropped.

New all time highs:   UL, GPOR, 
All time lows:   -KING

Pops:   QCOR      Drops:   BBBY, HLF, JPM, GPS

Next week:  Economic reports,  MARKET IS CLOSED ON GOOD FRIDAY!

Earnings:     

Mon -C, 

Tue -INTC, JNJ, KO, YHOO

Wed -GOOG, IBM, AXP, BAC, COF, PNC, SNDK

Thu - MS, GS, GE, PEP, UNH

Fri -closed

Market Commentary

Could be an interesting week with lots of  companies reporting earnings, April Options expiration, and the markets closed on Friday. We could see a bounce from this extended sell-off  if volatility shrinks with Options expiration. Even if we do get a bounce for the week though, the markets seem to be in a bigger down trend.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topped?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $103.74  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.62
Gold was up, closing at $1319
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 134.78
The US Dollar dropped, closing at 79.52

NEWS:
Stocks: Lousy end to a bad week
Good earnings could turn around markets
Apple vs Samsung: Why this trial will be harder for Apple
Herbalife shares plunge on report of FBI probe
8 pricey stocks haunting the Nasdaq

High fees eroding many retirement accounts
Roiled Markets In China Spell Trouble For Economy
Europe Folds As Putin Tells It To Pay Ukraine's Gazprom Bill, Or Else
Greece Dives Back Into the Bond Market

Stock Market Blog -Apr 6th

Stocks rallied for the week, then gave it all back on Friday after the Jobs report. Biotechs and some of the Techs were hit hard.  JNJ closed at an all time high however. This could be the beginning of a correction here. Meanwhile Bonds and Gold rallied on Friday as stocks dropped.

Note that the S&P500 hit an all time high on Friday before the sell-off!

Keeping an eye on the debt clock (on the left) -it is now over the $17,500,000,000,000 mark! It crossed $17T last October.

New all time highs:   APC, HAL, JNJ, MDT, PNC, SNDK, WFC, WDC, UTX
All time lows:   -

Pops:  APC, MNKD     Drops:  FB, NFLX, P, YELP, etc.

Next week:  Economic reports,  

Earnings:     AA, JPM, WFC

Nasdaq and Small Caps already in a down trend...

Market Commentary

Earnings season kicks off next week -lets see how the market reacts. The deluge of earnings really starts a week from now, so this week we may just be in a wait and see mode. The DOW looks like it may have double topped, while the NASDAQ and the Russell small cap index are already in a short term down-trend. The momentum and high-flier stocks have been hit hard too (e.g. BIIB, FB, NFLX, AMZN, TWTR...).

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topping?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing around $101.14  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.44
Gold dropped again, closing at $1303  -so much for $1400!
The 30 year Bond was down, closing at 132.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing at 80.57

NEWS:
Stocks: brutal finale to week
Irrational Nonexuberance for Stocks
The Rate Of Share Buybacks Has Doubled In The Last Decade
Google's stock split: not evil, just smart
Why Amazon faces an uphill battle in streaming video

Stock Market Blog -Mar 30th

The market was  looking tired this week, as the Nasdaq and Small Caps lost some more ground. Many of the recent hi-fliers have pulled back this month like AMZN, GOOG, GILD, NFLX, DATA, PCLN, TRIP, TSLA, etc. Even Gold pulled back almost $100. Oil was up however, closing over $100 again on Friday.

The Candy Crush IPO was a disappointment to investors (KING)
Don't forget the GOOG stock split this week!

New all time highs:   ?? no hot stocks this week...
All time lows:   -

Pops:     LULU     Drops:  BBRY

Next week:  Economic reports,  ...end of Q1;  Monthly Jobs report on Friday

Earnings:     

A sign of things to come?

Market Commentary

The Russell Small-Caps (IWM) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are breaking down more than the DOW and S&P500. We could see the S&P500 break down in a similar manner, maybe as earnings season starts in a couple of weeks. On the other hand, with the resiliency this market has shown in the past few years, we could well see a recovery from this sell-off. Near term, the Jobs report on Friday could be a catalyst to move the market in one direction or the other.  I have no directional bias at this point.

Maybe you can trade a small bounce in the some of the hi-fliers that have sold off recently. Implied Volatility has risen in those names (FB, NFLX, BIDU, PCLN, etc.)

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topping?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $101.42  -back above $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.46
Gold dropped again, closing at $1296  -so much for $1400!
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 133.40
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing at 80.32

NEWS:
Why stocks could stay under pressure
Warning signs are flashing on Wall Street
High fliers begin dipping as balloon deflates
Home sales fall for 8th-straight month in February
Economic growth slowing? We’re about to find out

Why Google's split will change the S&P 500 forever

Apple Is Walking Up The Down Staircase
Citigroup sinks 5% after failing Fed 'stress test'
Gold settles around $1,300 as US data lifts dollar
China seizes $14.5 billion assets from former leader

Stock Market Blog -Mar 23rd

The market rallied this week, then pulled back on Friday as it approached the previous high from earlier this month. The NASDAQ 100 is showing weakness among the major indices. Gold and Biotechs (IBB) pulled back.

MSFT hit $40 for the first time since 2000!

New all time highs:   AET, AMGN, BWLD, DFS, JPM, WFC, HAL, MAR, TSN, UNH, and more...
All time lows:   -

Can QCOM make it all the way? ...after almost 15 years!

Pops:     ECYT, FSLR      Drops:  IBB, WLT

Next week:  Economic reports,  ...approaching the end of Q1

Earnings:     

Market Commentary

We continue to chop around the current levels. This might continue thru the end of the first Quarter, then we get earnings.  The up-trend is still holding, but starting to flatten out.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still on top!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $99.30 -holding under $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.33
Gold was up, closing at $1327  -so much for $1400!
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing at 132.75
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing at 80.30

NEWS:

Stock Market Blog -Mar 16th

We saw some profit taking as the market dropped this week, and Bonds and Gold rallied. Gold stocks were also on the rise, along with Utilities (XLU). The market could be starting a slow roll and forming a top in this area -keep an eye on the moving averages.

New all time highs:   CBOE, PZZA, TSN, 
All time lows:   -

Pops:     Drops:  HLF, BLDP, FCEL, PLUG

Next week:  Economic reports,  ** Fed meeting **   ** Options Expiration **

Earnings:     ORCL, ADBE, FDX

Biotech

Some All Time Highs...

Market Commentary

Was that a fake out rally the previous week? Time will tell... lets see how we close out this first quarter. We dropped in the beginning, then rallied back, so we might end the quarter basically unchanged! Don't forget  this is Options expiration week.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still on top!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil dropped, closing around $98.90 -finally under $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.42
Gold was up, closing at $1379  -approaching $1400
The 30 year Bond rallied, closing at 133.50
The US Dollar was down a bit, closing at 79.45

NEWS:
Weighing The Week Ahead: Yellen Takes The Stage
The Four Horsemen Of The Stock Market Apocalypse
Why Facebook's Shares Are Running Up

Here are two charts that say a crash is not likely (vid)

Stock Market Blog -Mar 8th

The market broke out this week and it now looks like the S&P500 could be headed to the 1900 level! Next week marks the 5 year anniversary of this bull market from the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P500 has been up 178% since March 2009.

The unemployment rate rose for the first time in a long time! This week Bonds dropped, Gold and Oil dropped, and Grains rallied. WFC hit an all time high this week.

New all time highs:   AXP, BIDU, CBS, DAL, DIS, DFS, DTV,  ESRX, FL, HON, INTU, TRIP, QIHU, WFC...
All time lows:   -

Pops:   FCEL    Drops:  RSH, SPLS

Next week:  Economic reports,  

Earnings:     

Agricultural commodities!

Market Commentary

We did break out and hold above the 1850 level on the S&P500, and could be headed even higher as we approach the end of this first quarter. Many people were bearish based on how the quarter started, and are now in a losing position -welcome to Wall Street! We may not see a correction till the 2nd quarter.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still on top!
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up and back down, closing at $102.58 -still over $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.6
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing at $1338 -holding over $1300
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing at 131.15
The US Dollar was  down a bit, closing at 79.72

NEWS:

Bull market still has some sizzle
4 potential killers lurk as bull market hits 5
Chart: What’s the real unemployment rate?
Failure to launch: New businesses aren't creating enough jobs
TREASURIES-Yields highest in six weeks after solid jobs gains
UPDATE 2-Fuel Cell shares jump as investors bet on clean power
How many Chinese billionaires? Take a guess

Everything must go: There's a flood of store closings
Staples to Shut as Many as 225 Stores, Cut Costs by $500 Million
RadioShack to close up to 1,100 stores
Google's Motorola Mobility Layoffs:1,200 More Workers...
Toys 'R' Us says it will cut 200 jobs at headquarters