Stock Market Blog -May 25th

The market rallied yet another week, disappointing all the bears out there. Looks like May will close higher if we keep up this trend for another week.

Gold continues to trade under $1300, while Oil is approaching $105.
TIF rallied on earnings. DKS plunged.
NFLX saw a nice rally this week too.

New all time highs:  AVGO, CVS, DAL, LUV, NVS, NSC, SNDK, HUM, WLP, Z
All time lows:   -ANR

Pops:  TIF   Drops:   DKS

Next week:  Economic reports,   

Earnings:     AZO, KORS, TOL, COST

Market Commentary

Looks like the support level I mentioned last week on the Small-Caps held, and we got a nice rally from there (IWM). The S&P500 closed at an all time high too. Looks like we could see more upside action for a little while, as the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 play catch up... The VIX also hit another low, disappointing all the traders that  are long the VIX! We will eventually get a VIX rally though.

For Option traders, because of the low Volatility, Calendar Spreads would be appropriate here.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates -dropping!
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing at 104.20  -holding above $100
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing at 4.40
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing at $1291
The 30 year Bond dropped a bit, closing near 136.97

The US Dollar was up a bit closing at 80.44

NEWS:
S&P 500 hits new record of 1,900.50
Tech stocks are back. Forget that Spring sell-off
5 good reasons to sell your stocks
Is a bond and stock correction coming?
Oil ends higher after US data; Libya and Ukraine tensions

China and Russia ink $400 billion gas deal

GM Sets a Record, And Its Story Gets Even Worse
HP to cut up to 16,000 more jobs
Barclays to shed 19,000 jobs over three years
Army of robots to invade Amazon warehouses
Robots will replace fast-food workers

Stock Market Blog -May 18th

After a big rally on Monday, the market gave it all back by the end of the week. The Russell 2000 small-caps also dropped to the Feb low -maybe we'll get a bounce here. Bonds and the US Dollar rallied, while Gold dropped back under $1300 again. Oil closed over $100 again. Gold miners (GDX) seem to be headed lower again.

WMT dropped after reporting earnings; as did WWE. CSCO rallied.

New all time highs:  DDS, JWN, KR, UNP, NVS, UN, UL, 
All time lows:   -

Pops:  CSCO    Drops:   

Next week:  Economic reports,   

Earnings:     CPB, HD, LOW, TGT, BBY, HPQ, PETM

Market Commentary

The markets seem to be undecided, with the S&P500 still stuck in a range. Lack of buyers? Maybe the 'sell in May' crowd will set the next trend? Small-caps are still in a down-trend, though now at a support level. Volatility is super low (VIX) ,  a contra indicator that might indicate a market top. Maybe buying VIX or VIX related Options could be a viable strategy here.

For Option traders, because of the low Volatility, Calendar Spreads would be appropriate here.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates -dropping!
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit, closing at 102.02...  -back above $100
Natural Gas dropped, closing at 4.41
Gold was mostly unchanged, closing at $1293
The 30 year Bond was up, closing near 137.43 

The US Dollar dropped a bit closing at 80.10

NEWS:
Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes, Retail Earnings, Housing Data
Week's Winners and Losers: Netflix Flies, Shutterfly Flubs
Jobless claims tumble to pre-recession low; inflation stirs
US household debt jumps for third straight quarter: Survey
I have 'sick feeling' 25% crash is ahead: Acampora
Pimco sees an end to bull markets in 3-5 year outlook
Why you should short gold now: BofA technician
It's Getting Easier to Get a Mortgage

Stock Market Blog -May 11th

Another week of sideways action in the S&P500. The 10yr note was up a bit (lower interest rates), while Gold ended flat after a rally on Monday. I still think the S&P500 is trying to take out the 1900 level. Commodities dropped as we saw a small rally in the US Dollar.

TWTR and WFM dropped after reporting earnings. GRPN and TSLA also dropped. GMCR rallied

New all time highs:  
All time lows:   -

Pops:  EA, GMCR, ODP    Drops:   GRPN, TSLA, TWTR, WFM, 

Next week:  Economic reports,   * * Options expiration for May * *

Earnings:     

Market Commentary

If you look at a daily chart of the S&P500 it's been hovering in the 1850 to 1880 area, the DOW has been trying to get through the 16600 level, while the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 have been in a downtrend. This divergence will probably correct itself soon. If the S&P and DOW break through resistance, then we'll probably see a nice rally in the NASDAQ and Russell. Of course, it could always break in the other direction with everything heading further down -only time will tell.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up a bit...  -holding below $100
Natural Gas dropped
Gold was mostly unchanged
The 30 year Bond was mostly unchanged

The US Dollar dropped a bit

NEWS:
Dow rises to record close; Nasdaq ends worst week in a month
Market will ‘explode to the upside’: Pro
Will 'momentum' finally 'yield'? Traders want to know
Apple-Beats deal makes sense as $3.2B hire (vid)
Apple is desperate and clueless: Pro (vid)
The declining dollar: Why everyone got it wrong
How 3-D printing will radically change the world

Stock Market Blog -May 4th

The market was up a bit for the week, after a lousy GDP number, and an OK Jobs number (depending on which opinion you listen to). The unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%, but roughly a million people dropped out of the workforce too! TWTR dropped after reporting earnings, as did CVX.   Bonds rallied, and Oil dropped.

New all time highs:   COP, DYN, KR, MAR, MMM, NVS, SNDK, XOM, XNF
All time lows:   -DRL

The DOW hasn't been able to break through 16,600

Pops:  ,  Drops:   

Next week:  Economic reports,   Fed before Congress

Earnings:     

Mon - PFE

Tue - DIS, ODP, UBS

Wed - 

Thu - REGN

Fri - 

Market Commentary

We seem to be stalled around this level in the S&P500. The market is very unpredictable here, but with the recent sell-off in techs, there may be an opportunity for a bounce in some of those names. 

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

Another wreck in the financial sector -new all time low this week

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -still forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $99.82  -dropped below $100 again
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.68
Gold was mostly flat, closing at $1300
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 136.09

The US Dollar was down again, closing at 79.55

NEWS:
Stocks slip but end week higher amid Ukraine worries, US jobs data
Week Ahead: Yellen Before Congress, Plus Data and Earnings
No respect! Market not rewarding good earnings 
About that jobs report...maybe it wasn't so great

MasterCard 1Q profit rises 14 percent
Samsung vs. Apple verdict: Samsung to pay $120 million, Apple $160,000
If Russia goes over the economic cliff, it won’t go alone

Stock Market Blog -Apr 27th

The market pulled back on Friday after the recent rally. We saw some selling this week in popular names like AMZN, FB, NFLX, P, QCOM, T. We got a nice pop from AAPL after reporting earnings, and also a surprise 7:1 stock split. Next week we get more earnings reports, the Fed meeting, and the Jobs report on Friday.

New all time highs:   AGN, HCA, PSX
All time lows:   -

Pops:  AGN,  Drops:   P

Next week:  Economic reports,   * Fed meeting *,   * Monthly Jobs report *

Earnings:     

Mon - HLF

Tue - BMY, BSX, DDD, EBAY, MRK, PNRA, TWTR, VLO

Wed - MET

Thu - MA, CLX, KRFT, LNKD, COP, XOM,

Fri - CVS, CVX

Market Commentary

Looks like we may have hit some resistance after this recent rally. Lots of market events next week, so it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. If the market follows recent patterns, we are in for another down leg.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $100.60  -dropping?
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.65
Gold was up, closing at $1300
The 30 year Bond was up a bit, closing at 134.94

The US Dollar was down a bit, closing at 79.82

NEWS:
How will the market react to Fed, earnings and jobs report? -Vid
Why it may not be smart to sell in May -Vid
How to play Apple’s surprise stock split -Vid
Why David Einhorn is right about tech stocks
Einhorn's Premature Bubble Call
Where Are All the Homebuyers?

U.S. Deficit Cut by Almost One-Third to $492 Billion: CBO
China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates 

We got a rally this week and recovered most of the losses from the prior week. Crude Oil is approaching $105, while Gold dropped below $1300 again. Lots of tech earnings next week, including AAPL, AMZN, and MSFT.

IBM dropped after reporting earnings. YHOO rallied, mostly based on its Alibaba ownership.

New all time highs:   COP, HAL, 
All time lows:   -

Pops:   SNDK, YHOO    Drops:   IBM

Next week:  Economic reports, 

Earnings:     

Mon - NFLX, HAL

Tue - T, MCD, YUM, GILD, AMGN, ISRG

Wed - AAPL, FB, QCOM, PG, BA, EMC

Thu - AMZN, MSFT, VZ, UPS, CAT, V, BIDU, CELG, SBUX

Fri - CL, F

Market Commentary

We did get a bounce last week as I expected. Not sure if we'll see any follow through next week though -my guess is that there is a good chance for more down-side action again.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -forming a top?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $104.30  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.74
Gold dropped, closing at $1293
The 30 year Bond dropped, closing at 133.90
The US Dollar was up a bit, closing at 79.90

NEWS:

 U.S. Deficit Cut by Almost One-Third to $492 Billion: CBO
10 of the Best ETF Trades of All Time
China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates
Don’t Get Hit By a Falling BRIC

Stock Market Blog -Apr 13th

The market continued to drop this week for no apparent reason -maybe profit taking? The indexes are now in a losing position for the year. I mentioned last week that the DOW appeared to have made a double top. Bonds, Gold, and Oil were up for the week. The US Dollar dropped.

New all time highs:   UL, GPOR, 
All time lows:   -KING

Pops:   QCOR      Drops:   BBBY, HLF, JPM, GPS

Next week:  Economic reports,  MARKET IS CLOSED ON GOOD FRIDAY!

Earnings:     

Mon -C, 

Tue -INTC, JNJ, KO, YHOO

Wed -GOOG, IBM, AXP, BAC, COF, PNC, SNDK

Thu - MS, GS, GE, PEP, UNH

Fri -closed

Market Commentary

Could be an interesting week with lots of  companies reporting earnings, April Options expiration, and the markets closed on Friday. We could see a bounce from this extended sell-off  if volatility shrinks with Options expiration. Even if we do get a bounce for the week though, the markets seem to be in a bigger down trend.

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves (e.g. selling Credit spreads).

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topped?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was up, closing around $103.74  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was up, closing  at $4.62
Gold was up, closing at $1319
The 30 year Bond was up, closing at 134.78
The US Dollar dropped, closing at 79.52

NEWS:
Stocks: Lousy end to a bad week
Good earnings could turn around markets
Apple vs Samsung: Why this trial will be harder for Apple
Herbalife shares plunge on report of FBI probe
8 pricey stocks haunting the Nasdaq

High fees eroding many retirement accounts
Roiled Markets In China Spell Trouble For Economy
Europe Folds As Putin Tells It To Pay Ukraine's Gazprom Bill, Or Else
Greece Dives Back Into the Bond Market

Stock Market Blog -Apr 6th

Stocks rallied for the week, then gave it all back on Friday after the Jobs report. Biotechs and some of the Techs were hit hard.  JNJ closed at an all time high however. This could be the beginning of a correction here. Meanwhile Bonds and Gold rallied on Friday as stocks dropped.

Note that the S&P500 hit an all time high on Friday before the sell-off!

Keeping an eye on the debt clock (on the left) -it is now over the $17,500,000,000,000 mark! It crossed $17T last October.

New all time highs:   APC, HAL, JNJ, MDT, PNC, SNDK, WFC, WDC, UTX
All time lows:   -

Pops:  APC, MNKD     Drops:  FB, NFLX, P, YELP, etc.

Next week:  Economic reports,  

Earnings:     AA, JPM, WFC

Nasdaq and Small Caps already in a down trend...

Market Commentary

Earnings season kicks off next week -lets see how the market reacts. The deluge of earnings really starts a week from now, so this week we may just be in a wait and see mode. The DOW looks like it may have double topped, while the NASDAQ and the Russell small cap index are already in a short term down-trend. The momentum and high-flier stocks have been hit hard too (e.g. BIIB, FB, NFLX, AMZN, TWTR...).

Implied Volatility on individual stocks tend to rise ahead of earnings, then drop sharply once the earnings are out. Options strategies can be used to take advantage of these predictable moves.

This week's charts:

S&P 500 -topping?
10yr Interest Rates
Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart)

Commodities/Futures (charts):
Crude Oil was mostly unchanged, closing around $101.14  -still above $100!
Natural Gas was mostly unchanged, closing  at $4.44
Gold dropped again, closing at $1303  -so much for $1400!
The 30 year Bond was down, closing at 132.97
The US Dollar was mostly unchanged, closing at 80.57

NEWS:
Stocks: brutal finale to week
Irrational Nonexuberance for Stocks
The Rate Of Share Buybacks Has Doubled In The Last Decade
Google's stock split: not evil, just smart
Why Amazon faces an uphill battle in streaming video