Stock Market Update -Nov 1st

Except for a rally on Thursday after the GDP report, the market was down for another week (I wrote last week "...We could see another 'market down, prop up the bonds' week"). Also this was the first monthly loss in the S&P since the rally began in March. We could be at a turning point in this nine month rally. Banks are in the headlines again, with the financial sector showing a lot of weakness.

New Unemployment claims for this week came in at 530,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Nine more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell from the high to close the week around $77 per barrel. Natural Gas was back up to the $5.00 level. Other commodities gave up some ground as the dollar regained some strength. Gold prices were down as well. The US Dollar index closed up for the week around the 76 level. Bond prices were up as the stock market fell.

The national debt crossed the $12 trillion mark this week (see clock on the left). The government doesn't seem to be too concerned though!

The Dollar relationship to the Stock market

Next week we get more earnings reports including Ford, Cisco, and Starbucks. We also have the Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday, and the monthly Jobs report on Friday, both potentially big market moving events. We will probably see unemployment finally pushing over 10%.

Market analysis: The market was down again this week, on heavy volume, and closed October as the weakest month since the March rally started. We could be in for a bigger correction. As an investor, now would be a good time to get defensive and hedge or protect your gains. As a trader, hopefully you are already out of any long positions.

Note that BIDU was down $50 on Monday after they reported earnings. RIMM continues to breakdown, and AAPL finally started to crack this week too -all market leaders on the NASDAQ.

Small banking empire collapses; 9 fail in 1 day
CIT files for bankruptcy
Exxon Mobil earnings plunge 68%
Citigroup Shares Tumble After Analyst Sees Major Writedown
GMAC seeking third bailout - report
Do banks have something to hide?
Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
What's Still Wrong with Wall Street

U.S. GDP rises 3.5% as stimulus kicks in
Stimulus creates 640,000 jobs
Jobs will return -- in 2012
Be Prepared for the Worst
China’s Recovery Strengthens, Adding Room for Stimulus Cuts
Forget China, Brazil's a cheaper investment
Don't Argue with Paul Tudor Jones about Gold

Stock Market Update -Oct 25th

This week the market showed some signs of weakness. Strong earnings from AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and others kept the market from falling further (see chart below; the Technology sector was the only one up this week). The DOW also fell back below the 10,000 level, and Oil prices continued to rise.

New Unemployment claims for this week rose to 531,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Seven more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to rise, closing the week around $80 per barrel. Natural Gas remained in a trading range, closing around $4.80. Other commodities rose too (gas, corn, soybeans, wheat, etc).

The US Dollar stabilized a bit, keeping Gold prices in check as well. Bond prices fell further (higher long term interest rates).


Next week we get another barrage of earnings reports, including some of the large oil companies. Also the 3rd quarter GDP report on Thursday, which could be a market mover! This one could be a big disappointment.

Another huge week for government borrowing too, as over $100 billion in bonds will be issued next week. We could see another 'market down, prop up the bonds' week...

Market analysis: We had very strong earnings last week, but the market stumbled. We could see more of the same next week. During earnings season, it's difficult to gauge market direction with any real degree of accuracy so again, be careful. We could see some more downside action.

Dow 10,000: Show Me the (Real) Money
The Stock Market Has Never Been This (Intermediate-Term) Overbought
Lost Decade Is Heading Toward Two-Decade Mark
How Apple is gaining on Microsoft
Amazon shares hit all-time high
Leading indicators up 1% in September
Home sales rise 9.4 pct. in Sept., beat forecast
Keeping up with an avalanche of troubled mortgages

Investing in Bonds
What Bubble? Commodities Rally Is Still Far From Over
Goldman Sachs Is Robbing Us Blind
Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
U.S. maxes out on credit
Dollar Depreciation: Denial or Acceptance?
Follow The Money Into Emerging Markets?

Stock Market Update -Oct 18th

The market continued to rally this week after srong earnings from Intel, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Citi and Bank of America reported losses. The Financials overall are starting to pull back a bit (see chart below), while the Energy sector continues to do well. The weak dollar also helped the market rally. The DOW finally topped the 10,000 mark, but was not able to hold that level.

New Unemployment claims for this week fell to 514,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but shrinking)
Another bank was shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up again, closing the week around $78 per barrel, while Natural Gas seems to be in a trading range, closing around $4.80. The US Dollar dropped further this week, keeping Gold prices up. Bond prices continued to fall.

By the way, how is the auto business doing? Here is an excerpt from an article I read this week: "China’s auto sales jumped 78% in September. US auto sales fell 41%..."


Next week we get a slew of earnings reports. Some of the companies reporting include:

Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
AAPL	CAT	AMGN	AXP	HON
BBT	KO	EBAY	AMZN	SLB
TXN	PFE	FCX	COF	MSFT
	YHOO	MS	MRK
		WFC	MMM
			MCD
			UPS

Market analysis: The rally continues until Wall Street decides that the party is over, so enjoy the run, but be careful. Apple reports earnings on Monday after the market closes and could be an indicator of how the rest of the week might turn out

Earnings:
Goldman Sachs Profit Climbs Well Past Estimates
JPMorgan Crushes Profit Expectations
Bank of America posts $2.2 billion loss
Citigroup posts loss, takes $8 bln in credit losses
Google profit, sales top estimates

Bailed-Out Banks Raking In Big Profits
CIT Says CEO Peek to Resign; Bankruptcy Looms
Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'
Foreclosures On Pace To Hit 3.5 Million
Recession Will Be 'Full-Blown Depression': Strategist
The Greatest Depression Is Coming
U.S. deficit biggest since 1945
U.S. ran deficit of $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009

It's Official: No Social Security Increase
Harvard’s Bet on Interest Rate Rise Cost $500 Million to Exit
SEC Enforcement Division Hires Goldman Sachs VP As COO
Bonuses Put Goldman in Public Relations Bind
A Monster $500+ Billion Market Is Rising in the East
Google's Android Ready To Explode Past The iPhone

Baby survives after falling under train (video)

Stock Market Update -Oct 11th

The market was up this week, hitting a new high for the year as Alcoa reported better than expected earnings, and as we saw further weakness in the US Dollar (I suggested last week, we could see a contrarian rally as everyone was expecting further weakness!). Energy and Financials have been leading the way for the past month (see chart below). The big story this week was Gold soaring to new highs!



New Unemployment claims for this week were 521,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
No bank shutdowns this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up, closing this week around $72 per barrel, Natural Gas was both up and down, closing around $4.70. The US Dollar dropped further this week, pushing Gold prices up to new highs around $1060! Bond prices tumbled.

The US Dollar has been making headline news this week. Here is a 'big picture' look at where we are right now (20 year chart):


Next week kicks off a new earnings season with the following companies among those reporting: Tue: INTC, JNJ Wed: JPM Thu: C, GS, GOOG, IBM Fri: BAC, GE. Don't forget that this week we also have Option expiration on Friday.

Market analysis: We moved higher this week as I suspected we would. I think we can easily see more upside this coming week as we get earnings reports from some of the big banks and technology companies. DOW 10,000 is an attractive target for the market, in spite of what the chart readers might think!

The Curse Of Dow 10,000
Why It's Time to Retire the 401(k)
CBO: Budget deficit hit record $1.4T in 2009
The Fed's $2.2 trillion fire hose
October surprise from bank earnings?
Small Banks Fail at Growing Rate, Straining F.D.I.C.
Banks cutting back on loans to businesses
Banks still stuck with the junk
The Coming Bank Bust

Why Junk Bond ETFs Are Calling To Investors
Away From Wall Street, Credit Keeps Contracting
So How Is the Stimulus Working Out?
Chart of the day, hours-worked edition
Recession Is Over; Depression Has Just Begun
Gold Has More Upside
Gold will hit $2,000 an ounce within decade, says Jim Rogers
The dollar's weak -- but it's not a crisis
Russia Soaring
Rio Rising
China buys the world
All I want for Christmas: A job

Stock Market Update -Oct 4th

The markets continued to pull back this week, with the jobs report on Friday showing continued weakness in the economy (see chart below). The unemployment rate now stands at 9.8%. October kicks off another quarterly earnings reports season, and I believe this will drive market direction for the next month. This past quarter posted the best quarterly performance in the market in 25 years.

Meanwhile the government continues to borrow billions more each week, building up a huge debt bubble (the debt clock on the left just crossed the $11.9 trillion mark). Also the FDIC (which insures your deposits at the banks, around $9 trillion) is now out of money, with hundreds more banks still expected to fail! Personal bankruptcies are on the rise (over 1 million so far this year). And the 'experts' say we are coming out of the recession!

New Unemployment claims for this week were 551,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Three more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices seem to be in a trading range, closing this week around $70 per barrel, Natural Gas continued to rally, closing around $4.70, and Gold closed just over $1000.

The US Dollar also seems to be in a trading range, and Bond prices continue to rally, as the stock market dips.

The real problem with the economy! (click to view)

Next week begins a new earnings season, with Alcoa starting things off on Wednesday.

Market analysis: The market has pulled back for a second week in a row, as investors fear a drop in October. If you have a contrarian view, this negative sentiment may actually cause prices to go up. We have now pulled back to the 50 period moving average which may also provide support for the market.

Economy Losing 11,000 Jobs per day since December of 2007
FDIC Insuring 8,200 Banks with $9 Trillion in Deposits and Zero in the Deposit Insurance Fund
The FDIC is Out of Money – Now What?
If the FDIC Is Broke, Why Are They Still Issuing Guarantees?
Bank Failures: 1,000 Banks to Fail, FDIC Running out of Money
Banks Have Us Flying Blind on Depth of Losses
Investors in Treasuries, Dollars Defy Common Sense