Stock Market Update -Oct 4th

The markets continued to pull back this week, with the jobs report on Friday showing continued weakness in the economy (see chart below). The unemployment rate now stands at 9.8%. October kicks off another quarterly earnings reports season, and I believe this will drive market direction for the next month. This past quarter posted the best quarterly performance in the market in 25 years.

Meanwhile the government continues to borrow billions more each week, building up a huge debt bubble (the debt clock on the left just crossed the $11.9 trillion mark). Also the FDIC (which insures your deposits at the banks, around $9 trillion) is now out of money, with hundreds more banks still expected to fail! Personal bankruptcies are on the rise (over 1 million so far this year). And the 'experts' say we are coming out of the recession!

New Unemployment claims for this week were 551,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Three more banks were shut down by regulators this week (list).

Commodities: Oil prices seem to be in a trading range, closing this week around $70 per barrel, Natural Gas continued to rally, closing around $4.70, and Gold closed just over $1000.

The US Dollar also seems to be in a trading range, and Bond prices continue to rally, as the stock market dips.


The real problem with the economy! (click to view)

Next week begins a new earnings season, with Alcoa starting things off on Wednesday.

Market analysis: The market has pulled back for a second week in a row, as investors fear a drop in October. If you have a contrarian view, this negative sentiment may actually cause prices to go up. We have now pulled back to the 50 period moving average which may also provide support for the market.

Economy Losing 11,000 Jobs per day since December of 2007
FDIC Insuring 8,200 Banks with $9 Trillion in Deposits and Zero in the Deposit Insurance Fund
The FDIC is Out of Money – Now What?
If the FDIC Is Broke, Why Are They Still Issuing Guarantees?
Bank Failures: 1,000 Banks to Fail, FDIC Running out of Money
Banks Have Us Flying Blind on Depth of Losses
Investors in Treasuries, Dollars Defy Common Sense

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