Stock Market Update -Nov 29th

The market ended more or less flat for the week, after dropping on Friday on news of the Dubai debt problem. We seem to be stuck in a trading range for the past two weeks as investors continue to get more jittery about this market (see chart below).

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 466,000! (chart). -finally under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
No bank shutdowns to report this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices continued to fall, closing the week around $76 per barrel. Natural Gas jumped up, closing around $5.20. And we saw record Gold prices again this week, closing around $1174. The US Dollar index was down again, closing around the 75 level. Bond prices continued to rise!


Next week we get the all important monthly 'jobs' report on Friday, a potential market mover.

Market analysis: We seem to be stuck in a trading range for the past two weeks. The market needs some good news if it is to rally any further at this point. Volume seems to be drying up too...


Behind the Great Stock Rally of 2009
Stocks and commodities spooked by Dubai World worries
Gold prices climb above $1,190 on Globex
Central Bank Buying Spurs a Gold Rush
European shares tumble amid Dubai debt worries
As one crisis recedes, the fiscal one may be only beginning
Dollar falls to 14-year low vs yen, touching 86.51
Treasuries Gain Most This Month on Dubai’s Debt Payment Delay
The FDIC Is $8.2 Billion in the Hole

Stock Market Update -Nov 22nd

The markets sputtered a bit this week to end mostly unchanged. We may be topping out here as we see a mixed picture over the past week and the past month (see chart). There was a big drop in housing starts reported this week, and mortgage delinquencies set a new record in the third quarter of 2009.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 505,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but trending down)
Another bank was shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were mostly flat closing the week around $78 per barrel. Natural Gas fell a bit to close around $4.50. We saw record Gold prices again this week, closing around $1163. The US Dollar index was up a bit, closing around the 75 level. Bond prices were up for the week.


Next week is a shortened trading week because of the Thanksgiving holiday. All eyes are on Black Friday sales.

Market analysis: The market seems to be stalling at this point. Retail sales on Friday may give it a push in one direction or the other. I believe that traders should book some profits at this level, anticipating a pullback. The chart is still bullish however for longer term investors.

Don't Be A Sucker, Take Your Gains
10 Years Later, a Much Less Expensive Dow 10,000
Treasury Yield Plunge Sends Warning
The FHA Is Broke
New tale of Detroit’s woe: Pontiac Silverdome sold for $583,000
The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated
U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High
Jobless Rate Up in 29 States, Hitting Records in 4 of Them
GM has post-bankruptcy loss of $1.15 billion

Graphic: Prime borrowers behind on mortgages
Delinquent Mortgages Equal to Three Times the Balanced For-Sale Inventory
Mortgage Delinquencies Set New Record
Housing Recovery Built on Sand
The Coming Deficit Disaster
A Foolish View of America's Debt
$4.8 trillion - Interest on U.S. debt
Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government
Latest Bullish Sign for Gold: Central Banks Are Big Buyers

Stock Market Update -Nov 15th

Another 'up' week for the markets, with the S&P500 having regained its losses from mid-October, and the DOW having surpassed the mid-October high. The small caps however have not regained even half of those losses, so the rally might be in question. The consumer sentiment report on Friday was worse than expected, and the trade deficit was also worse than expected.

The thanksgiving holiday sale season next week will tell us some more about how much consumers are actually willing to spend at this point.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 502,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but trending down)
Three more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell to close the week around $76 per barrel. Natural Gas fell to close around $4.40. Gold prices rallied to close around $1116 this week. The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged for the week closing around the 75 level. Bond prices were up for the week.

Next week there are a couple of economic reports which could move the market, a few more earnings reports, and Options expiration on Friday. The huge put-call ratio on the indexes might help the market stay up for the week -a contrarian indicator (a high put-call ratio = option traders are very bearish!)

Market analysis: The S&P 500 did in fact climb back up to the 1100 level I mentioned last week, but only stayed there for a day (above chart). I continue to believe that the market will be under some pressure going forward, but it might continue to hold up this week with the options traders being very bearish on the major indexes (a contrarian view).

Stock rally: Two weeks and counting
Housing market still faces a big glut
FHA reserves fall below 2% minimum, auditor says
Derivatives: A Banking Time Bomb Waiting to Go Off
Ambac warns it may file for bankruptcy
More Stimulus Equals More Unemployment
Betting Your Dollar's Bottoming
Which big country will default first?
Pfizer Broke the Law by Promoting Drugs for Unapproved Uses

Stock Market Update -Nov 8th

This was a green week for the market! (see middle chart below). The DOW is back over 10,000 again, even though unemployment is now at 10.2%, following 22 straight months of job losses and $800 billion in government stimulus (almost 3 million more jobs have been lost since the stimulus was announced). Seems like they are stimulating more unemployment! Speaking of which, unemployment benefits were extended yet again for up to 20 weeks. Also Fannie Mae announced a deal for homeowners (who can't afford their home) to now rent the home from the government -interesting chart!

Earnings season is almost over now, so the market will be mostly driven by news events. This week Warren Buffet bought BNI, a railroad company for $26 billion.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 512,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week)
Five more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices were up then down to close the week around $77 per barrel. Natural Gas fell to close at $4.60. Gold prices hit $1100 this week, as India buys 200 tons from the IMF! The US Dollar index was down for the week closing just under the 76 level. Bond prices ended mostly unchanged.

Next week we get earnings reports from DIS and WMT among others, and more bond sales from the Treasury to raise money. The bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veteran's Day.

Market analysis: The market turned back up this week, bouncing off the 1030 level on the S&P 500. It could continue all the way back up to the recent high at 1100, or it could turn back down again around 1075 (forming a bearish head & shoulders pattern). I expect the latter.

Unemployment hits 10.2%
Fears of Market Bubble Prompt Investors to Seek Exit Strategy
20 more weeks of benefits for the unemployed
October Bankruptcy Filings Set New Post-2005 Record
Fannie Mae asks for $15 billion in additional funding
What to do about Fannie and Freddie: Restructure -- or terminate?
The Fed and Fannie Mae: Throwing Money Down a Black Hole
Freddie Mac loses $6.3B in 3Q

Credit cards gouge consumers ahead of new law
Consumer debt drops for record eighth straight month
Gold futures top $1,100, oil prices sink on economic worries
JPMorgan Settlement: Bank To Pay SEC Over $700M Over Charges Of Illegal Payments
It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Fed maintains promise to keep rates low
Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels