Stock Market Update -Nov 15th

Another 'up' week for the markets, with the S&P500 having regained its losses from mid-October, and the DOW having surpassed the mid-October high. The small caps however have not regained even half of those losses, so the rally might be in question. The consumer sentiment report on Friday was worse than expected, and the trade deficit was also worse than expected.

The thanksgiving holiday sale season next week will tell us some more about how much consumers are actually willing to spend at this point.

New unemployment claims for this week came in at 502,000 (chart).
(still over the half million mark every week, but trending down)
Three more banks were shutdown by regulators this week! (list).

Commodities: Oil prices fell to close the week around $76 per barrel. Natural Gas fell to close around $4.40. Gold prices rallied to close around $1116 this week. The US Dollar index was mostly unchanged for the week closing around the 75 level. Bond prices were up for the week.

Next week there are a couple of economic reports which could move the market, a few more earnings reports, and Options expiration on Friday. The huge put-call ratio on the indexes might help the market stay up for the week -a contrarian indicator (a high put-call ratio = option traders are very bearish!)

Market analysis: The S&P 500 did in fact climb back up to the 1100 level I mentioned last week, but only stayed there for a day (above chart). I continue to believe that the market will be under some pressure going forward, but it might continue to hold up this week with the options traders being very bearish on the major indexes (a contrarian view).

Stock rally: Two weeks and counting
Housing market still faces a big glut
FHA reserves fall below 2% minimum, auditor says

Derivatives: A Banking Time Bomb Waiting to Go Off
Ambac warns it may file for bankruptcy
More Stimulus Equals More Unemployment
Betting Your Dollar's Bottoming
Which big country will default first?
Pfizer Broke the Law by Promoting Drugs for Unapproved Uses

No comments: