Once again, the markets were stuck in a trading range this week. Retail sales were higher than expected. The US Dollar was up significantly, causing Gold, Oil, and commodity stocks to falter. The Treasury auctions were weak causing long term rates to ratchet up. Also, airline stocks have been up nicely in the last two weeks as oil prices have dropped.
New unemployment claims for this week came in at 474,000! (chart).
-again under the half million mark, after being above it all year!
Three more banks were shutdown this week! (list).
Commodities: Oil prices saw a huge drop, closing the week around $70 per barrel. Natural Gas was up, closing around $5.20. Gold prices fell some more, closing around $1120. The US Dollar index rallied, closing around 76.50. Bond prices rose, only to drop back down again.
Next week we have the last Fed meeting for the year, the CPI report, and earnings reports from Best Buy, FDX, and RIMM. This is also expiration week, with options and futures contracts expiring on Friday. We could see a volatile week!
Market outloook: In the options market, bears far outnumber the bulls in the market indexes (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, etc.); if you are a contrarian this would be a bullish indicator for the market this week. The market has been stalled for the past few weeks, and in the absence of bad news we could see a Santa Claus rally! The charts also indicate that the market is about to move out of this recent consolidation area. The small cap IWM is the only index that has not taken out the October high, so we could see a nice break-out there, and the S&P500 could maybe take out the 1110 level.
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