This past week the market lost some ground, with a last minute sell-off on the last trading day of the year (2009 review below).
New unemployment claims came in at 432,000, the lowest level since 2008 (chart).
No banks were shut down this week! (list).
Commodities:
Oil prices continued to recover, closing the week just over $79 per barrel.
Natural Gas pulled back, closing around $5.60.
Gold prices fell some more, closing just under $1100.
The US Dollar index was more or less flat, closing around 78.
Bond prices fell further.
Next week: All eyes are on the monthly jobs report due on Friday.
Market commentary: For the week ahead, it's anyones guess as to what the market will do, so use caution! There is no clear short term trend at this point. We could get an early rally or a drop, followed by the market reaction to the jobs report on Friday. A lot of stocks, as well as the major indexes, look extended at this point, and many people are looking for a correction. The contrarian in me says to take the other side of that trade, at least until option expiration in two weeks. Earnings reports will be coming up a week from now as well.
My outlook for 2010?
I expect to see gold prices rally once again after this current pullback.
Likewise, we could see more pressure on the dollar after the current rally fades.
The stock market will probably be in a trading range all year.
Bonds prices will eventually drop (long term rates will rise).
Energy and Materials could outperform; also Technology.
We could see further food commodity price increases.
Emerging markets will continue to outpace the US.
Last year's comments ...Jan 2009 blog excerpt: Gold and Silver stocks are moving up nicely; I expect this to be an excellent year for these stocks... (well, it was an excellent year -many were up over 100%!)
* * * To everyone, best of luck in your trading for the new year! * * *
News:
Citi: The Third Worst Stock On S&P In 2009
India economy to grow 8 pct in FY '11, adviser says-report
China Manufacturing Growth Increases to 20-Month High
**** A look back ****
2009 best DOW performer (+120%): AXP2009 worst DOW performer (-15%): XOM
2009 best major 'index ETF' performer (see chart below): QQQQ
2009 best S&P500 sector: XLK (technology)
A look at 2009:
The stock market took off in early March and never looked back!Oil prices recovered from the bottom around $34, to over $80
Natural Gas fooled everyone and never recovered (ETF story)!
Lots of money poured into corporate bonds, chasing high yields: LQD, HYG, JNK
Government debt exploded
Foreclosures hit a record, with lots more expected!
We saw GM and Chrysler go under, and re-emerge as new companies
Unemployment shot up to 10.2%
Stocks, gold, and oil rallied as the US Dollar plummeted!
Gold rallied to $1220 before pulling back a bit
Interest rates from the Fed remained at close to zero in an effort to stimulate the economy
...the economy didn't get stimulated!
Hard lessons learned from 'leveraged' ETFs (SRS, TZA, etc.)
Sugar and Copper were the star performers in commodities
A look at the past decade:
The Best Stocks Of The Decade GMCR 7895% (who would have thought 'coffee'?)
U.S. Stocks Drop as Crisis Causes S&P 500’s First Decade Loss
A Lost Decade for U.S. Stocks
BUY & HOLD is dead for now!
The Russell 2000 is the only major index up for the decade (small caps)
China Is Now The World’s Second Largest Economy
Winners & Losers
The Graph That Says Everything About The Decade
Gold outperformed!
Top 5 commodities: Sugar, Cocoa, Copper, Gold, Platinum
15 Gadgets That Changed Everything This Decade
So whats ahead for '0' 10?
Eric Sprott Calls for New Lows on S&P 500...
For 2010, little improvement seen in job market
An Energy Investing Guide for 2010
Ten Best ETFs for 2010
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment